ATL: TEDDY - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#41 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 10, 2020 11:42 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:This should miss Florida well to the East this run for sure on the 00z GFS, weakness open to its north.


Yep, but anything beyond 5 days is a crapshoot, let’s hope Paulette leaves a weakness so this doesn’t bother anyone on the mainland after the Antilles


This is why you really dont want to go past 3 to 4 days.. 5 is pushing it..

GFS has it at the exact same location... with utterly completely different Synoptics and Paulette is way NE, Rene is nearly dead.. no trough..

GFS very consistent through 72 to 96 hours. and that is what is important.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#42 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Sep 10, 2020 11:47 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:This should miss Florida well to the East this run for sure on the 00z GFS, weakness open to its north.


Yep, but anything beyond 5 days is a crapshoot, let’s hope Paulette leaves a weakness so this doesn’t bother anyone on the mainland after the Antilles


This is why you really dont want to go past 3 to 4 days.. 5 is pushing it..

GFS has it at the exact same location... with utterly completely different Synoptics and Paulette is way NE, Rene is nearly dead.. no trough..

GFS very consistent through 72 to 96 hours. and that is what is important.

https://i.ibb.co/s6BTqNb/gfs-z500a-Norm-atl-fh180-trend.gif

Not much difference on the 00z vs. 18z with a weaker ridge meaning a quick eject north and OTS. GEFS and Euro will tell the real deal!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#43 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 10, 2020 11:50 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:
Yep, but anything beyond 5 days is a crapshoot, let’s hope Paulette leaves a weakness so this doesn’t bother anyone on the mainland after the Antilles


This is why you really dont want to go past 3 to 4 days.. 5 is pushing it..

GFS has it at the exact same location... with utterly completely different Synoptics and Paulette is way NE, Rene is nearly dead.. no trough..

GFS very consistent through 72 to 96 hours. and that is what is important.

https://i.ibb.co/s6BTqNb/gfs-z500a-Norm-atl-fh180-trend.gif

Not much difference on the 00z vs. 18z with a weaker ridge meaning a quick eject north and OTS. GEFS and Euro will tell the real deal!


Not much difference ? it is a completely different setup.. lol
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Thu Sep 10, 2020 11:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#44 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Sep 10, 2020 11:50 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:
Yep, but anything beyond 5 days is a crapshoot, let’s hope Paulette leaves a weakness so this doesn’t bother anyone on the mainland after the Antilles


This is why you really dont want to go past 3 to 4 days.. 5 is pushing it..

GFS has it at the exact same location... with utterly completely different Synoptics and Paulette is way NE, Rene is nearly dead.. no trough..

GFS very consistent through 72 to 96 hours. and that is what is important.

https://i.ibb.co/s6BTqNb/gfs-z500a-Norm-atl-fh180-trend.gif

Not much difference on the 00z vs. 18z with a weaker ridge meaning a quick eject north and OTS. GEFS and Euro will tell the real deal!

I think about a week of more runs and consistency will probably be needed to nail this down.
Last edited by cheezyWXguy on Thu Sep 10, 2020 11:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#45 Postby Ubuntwo » Thu Sep 10, 2020 11:50 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:This should miss Florida well to the East this run for sure on the 00z GFS, weakness open to its north.


Yep, but anything beyond 5 days is a crapshoot, let’s hope Paulette leaves a weakness so this doesn’t bother anyone on the mainland after the Antilles


This is why you really dont want to go past 3 to 4 days.. 5 is pushing it..

GFS has it at the exact same location... with utterly completely different Synoptics and Paulette is way NE, Rene is nearly dead.. no trough..

GFS very consistent through 72 to 96 hours. and that is what is important.

https://i.ibb.co/s6BTqNb/gfs-z500a-Norm-atl-fh180-trend.gif

No trough? Verbatim, that snapshot has a trough to the north weakening the ridge, extending from Canada down to about 30N (which is why this run has a curve before the CONUS).

I'm skeptical of its intensity considering the GFS' notorious tendencies, but it is there.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#46 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Sep 10, 2020 11:54 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
This is why you really dont want to go past 3 to 4 days.. 5 is pushing it..

GFS has it at the exact same location... with utterly completely different Synoptics and Paulette is way NE, Rene is nearly dead.. no trough..

GFS very consistent through 72 to 96 hours. and that is what is important.

https://i.ibb.co/s6BTqNb/gfs-z500a-Norm-atl-fh180-trend.gif

Not much difference on the 00z vs. 18z with a weaker ridge meaning a quick eject north and OTS. GEFS and Euro will tell the real deal!


Not much difference ? it is a completely different setup.. lol

How so? I’m not seeing it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#47 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 10, 2020 11:55 pm

Ubuntwo wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:
Yep, but anything beyond 5 days is a crapshoot, let’s hope Paulette leaves a weakness so this doesn’t bother anyone on the mainland after the Antilles


This is why you really dont want to go past 3 to 4 days.. 5 is pushing it..

GFS has it at the exact same location... with utterly completely different Synoptics and Paulette is way NE, Rene is nearly dead.. no trough..

GFS very consistent through 72 to 96 hours. and that is what is important.

https://i.ibb.co/s6BTqNb/gfs-z500a-Norm-atl-fh180-trend.gif

No trough? Verbatim, that snapshot has a trough to the north weakening the ridge, extending from Canada down to about 30N (which is why this run has a curve before the CONUS).

I'm skeptical of its intensity considering the GFS' notorious tendencies, but it is there.


it is far less of a trough than the 18z and the main low is 100s of miles NE .. ill rephrase no digging trough like the 18z..

point being.. dont take a model seriously past 3 to 5 days. lol
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#48 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 10, 2020 11:56 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:Not much difference on the 00z vs. 18z with a weaker ridge meaning a quick eject north and OTS. GEFS and Euro will tell the real deal!


Not much difference ? it is a completely different setup.. lol

How so? I’m not seeing it.


I suppose that is the problem.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#49 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Sep 10, 2020 11:56 pm

Ubuntwo wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:
Yep, but anything beyond 5 days is a crapshoot, let’s hope Paulette leaves a weakness so this doesn’t bother anyone on the mainland after the Antilles


This is why you really dont want to go past 3 to 4 days.. 5 is pushing it..

GFS has it at the exact same location... with utterly completely different Synoptics and Paulette is way NE, Rene is nearly dead.. no trough..

GFS very consistent through 72 to 96 hours. and that is what is important.

https://i.ibb.co/s6BTqNb/gfs-z500a-Norm-atl-fh180-trend.gif

No trough? Verbatim, that snapshot has a trough to the north weakening the ridge, extending from Canada down to about 30N (which is why this run has a curve before the CONUS).

I'm skeptical of its intensity considering the GFS' notorious tendencies, but it is there.

Shortwaves keep swinging through SE Canada which doesn’t allow much ridging.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#50 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Sep 10, 2020 11:57 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
Not much difference ? it is a completely different setup.. lol

How so? I’m not seeing it.


I suppose that is the problem.

There is no problem. Yes it could be completely different next run but that’s some good consistency for just a week out.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#51 Postby sma10 » Fri Sep 11, 2020 12:11 am

LarryWx wrote:
caneseddy wrote:CMC has nothing


I see it and it recurves sharply in the E Atlantic before weakening.

So, 0Z has overall had a pretty decent trend back away from a CONUS threat (though not necessarily a tuna since the GFS hits the NE Caribbean hard followed possibly by Bermuda) with a well OTS ICON, CMC, and UKMET and GFS recurving along 72W.

Let's see what the King and his men says later as well as the GEFS.

But the 0Z is only one run and It could easily shift back the other way on the next run(s). It really is amazing how many twists and turns there have been with 95L!


Larry, looks like significant number of GEFS members SW of Operational run
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#52 Postby blp » Fri Sep 11, 2020 12:22 am

sma10 wrote:
LarryWx wrote:
caneseddy wrote:CMC has nothing


I see it and it recurves sharply in the E Atlantic before weakening.

So, 0Z has overall had a pretty decent trend back away from a CONUS threat (though not necessarily a tuna since the GFS hits the NE Caribbean hard followed possibly by Bermuda) with a well OTS ICON, CMC, and UKMET and GFS recurving along 72W.

Let's see what the King and his men says later as well as the GEFS.

But the 0Z is only one run and It could easily shift back the other way on the next run(s). It really is amazing how many twists and turns there have been with 95L!


Larry, looks like significant number of GEFS members SW of Operational run


00z GEFS majority west of ops.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#53 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 11, 2020 12:30 am

blp wrote:
sma10 wrote:
LarryWx wrote:
I see it and it recurves sharply in the E Atlantic before weakening.

So, 0Z has overall had a pretty decent trend back away from a CONUS threat (though not necessarily a tuna since the GFS hits the NE Caribbean hard followed possibly by Bermuda) with a well OTS ICON, CMC, and UKMET and GFS recurving along 72W.

Let's see what the King and his men says later as well as the GEFS.

But the 0Z is only one run and It could easily shift back the other way on the next run(s). It really is amazing how many twists and turns there have been with 95L!


Larry, looks like significant number of GEFS members SW of Operational run


00z GEFS majority west of ops.

https://i.ibb.co/rvCy9NW/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-39.png


Not surprised given the drastic shift in the Synoptics and placement of the trough for the 00z operational..

the fact the ridge does not build back in on the operational is odd.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#54 Postby Fancy1001 » Fri Sep 11, 2020 12:36 am

blp wrote:
sma10 wrote:
LarryWx wrote:
I see it and it recurves sharply in the E Atlantic before weakening.

So, 0Z has overall had a pretty decent trend back away from a CONUS threat (though not necessarily a tuna since the GFS hits the NE Caribbean hard followed possibly by Bermuda) with a well OTS ICON, CMC, and UKMET and GFS recurving along 72W.

Let's see what the King and his men says later as well as the GEFS.

But the 0Z is only one run and It could easily shift back the other way on the next run(s). It really is amazing how many twists and turns there have been with 95L!


Larry, looks like significant number of GEFS members SW of Operational run


00z GEFS majority west of ops.

https://i.ibb.co/rvCy9NW/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-39.png


Am I mistaken or is one of the ensembles in the east blob at 912mb, or is that 1012mb. I can't tell.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#55 Postby WeatherEmperor » Fri Sep 11, 2020 12:55 am

Is the Euro delayed? Its not running on Tropical Tidbits. Anyone have another source?


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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#56 Postby ColdMiser123 » Fri Sep 11, 2020 12:58 am

WeatherEmperor wrote:Is the Euro delayed? Its not running on Tropical Tidbits. Anyone have another source?


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Looking at the coarse WSI 500 hPa vorticity maps, the Euro is significantly faster than 12z with the western lobe so far, maybe about 3-4 degrees west at hour 36 valid the same time stamp.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#57 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 11, 2020 12:59 am

ColdMiser123 wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:Is the Euro delayed? Its not running on Tropical Tidbits. Anyone have another source?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Looking at the coarse WSI 500 hPa vorticity maps, the Euro is significantly faster than 12z with the western lobe so far, maybe about 3-4 degrees west at hour 36 valid the same time stamp.


earlier ASCAT probably assisted with this run.. the 18 and 12z had no ASCAT as it was still over land.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#58 Postby WeatherEmperor » Fri Sep 11, 2020 12:59 am

ColdMiser123 wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:Is the Euro delayed? Its not running on Tropical Tidbits. Anyone have another source?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Looking at the coarse WSI 500 hPa vorticity maps, the Euro is significantly faster than 12z with the western lobe so far, maybe about 3-4 degrees west at hour 36 valid the same time stamp.


Thank you. If you are willing to stay up, can you post updates?


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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#59 Postby ColdMiser123 » Fri Sep 11, 2020 1:03 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
ColdMiser123 wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:Is the Euro delayed? Its not running on Tropical Tidbits. Anyone have another source?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Looking at the coarse WSI 500 hPa vorticity maps, the Euro is significantly faster than 12z with the western lobe so far, maybe about 3-4 degrees west at hour 36 valid the same time stamp.


earlier ASCAT probably assisted with this run.. the 18 and 12z had no ASCAT as it was still over land.


The Euro has some of the best satellite data assimilation out of all guidance, it should correct the forecast if satellite observations show a significant discrepancy from previous forecasts.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#60 Postby ColdMiser123 » Fri Sep 11, 2020 1:05 am

Close to ~5-6 degrees west of 12z at hour 60. At minimum, this should show a significantly closer approach to the islands this run.
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