ATL: TEDDY - Models

[TheStormExpert]

I just don't see this becoming a major hurricane by Tuesday like the GFS is suggesting.

You have a great point as everything has struggled in the Tropical Atlantic this season, but even if it’s a named storm at least it should feel the weakness above.

Btw, the 12z GFS looks to be a classic fish with even Bermuda being spared with the trough swinging in and driving 95L NE away from Bermuda.

[Cat5James]

There is a large inconsistency from run to run in upper atmospheric conditions and steering currents... I still expect large changes in potential track

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I just don't see this becoming a major hurricane by Tuesday like the GFS is suggesting.

You have a great point as everything has struggled in the Tropical Atlantic this season, but even if it’s a named storm at least it should feel the weakness above.

Btw, the 12z GFS looks to be a classic fish with even Bermuda being spared with the trough swinging in and driving 95L NE away from Bermuda.

Yes, but a Cat 2/3 hurricane is far more likely to be turned more north by that weakness than a tropical storm.

Pattern favors a recurve, but I'm nervous that this could impact the islands as it's making that turn. 00z Euro was significantly further west than the 12z.

[cheezyWXguy]

This still seems highly variable to me. Strength and speed of the system, strength and location of the 500mb weakness to the ne, and timing and strength of troughs off the east coast are still quite variable from run to run. Gfs has a bias toward over strengthening and progressing east coast troughs, but it has some support, so maybe it’s reasonable. The main thing I have doubts about is the system’s early interaction with the weakness. The models have way overdone the interaction between Paulette and Rene over the past week, and this could be the same

[StPeteMike]

I don't know guys, I just don't see this becoming a major hurricane by Tuesday like the GFS is suggesting. I feel like this is going to be a struggle-storm until it reaches 55W.

Agreed. If I remember correctly, most of the models had the storm already as a tropical storm at this point when it was still in Africa. I think the ICZ is preventing RI.

[chris_fit]

12Z GEFS are coming in way W of the operational

[ConvergenceZone]

In my opinion, as I said last week, if anything is going to affect the USA mainland for the remainder of the season, it will need to develop in the Gulf or Carib, OR the oddball east of Florida(as in 96L) Too many troughs and weak ridges this time of year

[chris_fit]

The 12Z GFS Ops is pretty much the eastern most outlier... I don't think we're quite done here with this one.

[ConvergenceZone]

We’ll see if anything changes, but I’m doubting it. On the other hand, really getting concerned about 96L. That may explode once it gets in the gulf. Will check back here tomorrow...

[gatorcane]

UKMET with a recurve well east of the islands:

[SFLcane]

The 12Z GFS Ops is pretty much the eastern most outlier... I don't think we're quite done here with this one.

https://i.imgur.com/vfwDmhs.png

Interesting.

[TheStormExpert]

The 12Z GFS Ops is pretty much the eastern most outlier... I don't think we're quite done here with this one.

https://i.imgur.com/vfwDmhs.png

Still though a lot of those ensembles keep it East of the U.S. and even The Bahamas. This still could be an Eastern Caribbean or Bermuda threat but the threat to the U.S. mainland is quickly diminishing, especially if the 12z Euro doesn’t throw us a curveball.

[sma10]

Of note, the HWRF at 90 hrs significantly further west than 6z

[LarryWx]

The 12Z GFS Ops is pretty much the eastern most outlier... I don't think we're quite done here with this one.

https://i.imgur.com/vfwDmhs.png

Still though a lot of those ensembles keep it East of the U.S. and even The Bahamas. This still could be an Eastern Caribbean or Bermuda threat but the threat to the U.S. mainland is quickly diminishing, especially if the 12z Euro doesn’t throw us a curveball.

Good post. Today at 12Z overall the pre-Euro consensus looks encouraging as far as the CONUS not even getting close to being hit. Even the 12Z GEFS has most members missing, similar to 6Z and much less threatening than the 18Z and 0Z runs. However, it still threatens Luis and company pretty hard. Also, out of 21 members, it still has 2 FL hits (10% of members) with one of those also hitting GA (5%), 1 NC hit (5%), and 2 NE US hits (10%). I count about 4 (20%) of the 21 members as solid hits in addition to a few scrapes or near misses. So, despite the good trends, this implies there’s still enough of a chance for the CONUS to be hit to keep a very watchful eye there, especially because there have been many wild swings back and forth.

Now let’s see what the King and his men say.

[SFLcane]

[plasticup]

https://i.imgur.com/UYHMxnb.gif

Bermuda could see two majors in one week

[Cat5James]

Euro significantly SW thru day 4

[MJGarrison]

If you are on TT you are comparing to yesterdays 12Z. It is significantly SW of yesterdays 12Z but not compared to the 0Z this morning.


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[LarryWx]

Euro significantly SW thru day 4

I don’t see what you’re saying (significantly SW). So far, it appears the 12Z Euro won’t throw us a curveball. Let’s see what the rest of the run has.

[chris_fit]

Euro significantly SW thru day 4

I don’t see what you’re saying (significantly SW). So far, it appears the 12Z Euro won’t throw us a curveball. Let’s see what the rest of the run has.

Agree - it's not SW - It's E/Slower - likely recurve earlier