ATL: TEDDY - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6143
Age: 42
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Sunrise Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#141 Postby SFLcane » Fri Sep 11, 2020 1:22 pm

See ya.. turns north. I feel much better today that this storm won’t be making a run at the conus,. Maybe the islands.
2 likes   

User avatar
ColdMiser123
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 551
Age: 24
Joined: Mon Sep 26, 2016 3:26 pm
Location: Northeast US

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#142 Postby ColdMiser123 » Fri Sep 11, 2020 1:23 pm

Euro is east of the 0z run, one significant change I'm seeing though is the evolution with Paulette. 0z had it caught underneath a ridge instead of kicked east, which prevented ridging from connecting as much over 95L later on. This run looks like it will be out of the picture.
0 likes   
B.S. Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, 2018
M.S. Graduate Student researching data assimilation methods for convective initiation forecasts, Meteorology and Atmospheric Science

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8189
Age: 27
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#143 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Sep 11, 2020 1:25 pm

There’s just not enough ridging this year for any Cape Verde long-tracking storms to hit the U.S. A contrast from the past five years.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6143
Age: 42
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Sunrise Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#144 Postby SFLcane » Fri Sep 11, 2020 1:26 pm

ColdMiser123 wrote:Euro is east of the 0z run, one significant change I'm seeing though is the evolution with Paulette. [b]0z had it caught underneath a ridge instead of kicked east, which prevented ridging from connecting as much over 95L later on. This run looks like it will be out of the picture.[/b]


It still recurved though. Just no ridging
0 likes   

Fancy1001
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 210
Joined: Thu Jul 16, 2020 10:16 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#145 Postby Fancy1001 » Fri Sep 11, 2020 1:26 pm

LarryWx wrote:
Cat5James wrote:Euro significantly SW thru day 4


I don’t see what you’re saying (significantly SW). So far, it appears the 12Z Euro won’t throw us a curveball. Let’s see what the rest of the run has.

I think he meant it's significantly Southwest of the 12z run from yesterday, because that's the run that it compares it to when you press previous run on tropical tidbits since it does it in 24-hour intervals instead of 12.
1 likes   

User avatar
Weather Dude
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 753
Age: 19
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#146 Postby Weather Dude » Fri Sep 11, 2020 1:27 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:There’s just not enough ridging this year for any Cape Verde long-tracking storms to hit the U.S. A contrast from the past five years.

Laura?
4 likes   
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC for official information.

SconnieCane
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 512
Joined: Thu Aug 02, 2018 5:29 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#147 Postby SconnieCane » Fri Sep 11, 2020 1:28 pm

Weather Dude wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:There’s just not enough ridging this year for any Cape Verde long-tracking storms to hit the U.S. A contrast from the past five years.

Laura?


Laura didn't consolidate really well until past Cuba. He's talking storms that were named east of 50/perhaps 40W.
0 likes   

Fancy1001
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 210
Joined: Thu Jul 16, 2020 10:16 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#148 Postby Fancy1001 » Fri Sep 11, 2020 1:29 pm

Weather Dude wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:There’s just not enough ridging this year for any Cape Verde long-tracking storms to hit the U.S. A contrast from the past five years.

Laura?

Laura wasn't a long tracking storm. It didn't develop until it got into the Caribbean
0 likes   

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4039
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#149 Postby LarryWx » Fri Sep 11, 2020 1:31 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:There’s just not enough ridging this year for any Cape Verde long-tracking storms to hit the U.S. A contrast from the past five years.


I consider Laura a CV/longtracking storm with it becoming a TD before 50W 4 days after coming off Africa. By that measure, many seasons have none (TD east of 50W) hit the CONUS.

It depends on one’s definition, of course:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meteoro ... _track.png
Last edited by LarryWx on Fri Sep 11, 2020 1:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 20554
Age: 38
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#150 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 11, 2020 1:35 pm

Still too much interaction with Rene and the next system to its east..

waiting for the EPS.. and the next run..
0 likes   
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4039
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#151 Postby LarryWx » Fri Sep 11, 2020 1:43 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Still too much interaction with Rene and the next system to its east..

waiting for the EPS.. and the next run..


At this point based on the model trends today and when considering the climo in mid Sept of TCs with a likely genesis in the MDR east of 40W, as a betting man I’d take the no CONUS hit bet laying odds as high as 3 to 1. That’s even taking La Niña climo into account. But I wouldn’t lay odds any higher right now due to just enough uncertainty still existing, especially considering the wild model consensus jumps of the last few days.
Last edited by LarryWx on Fri Sep 11, 2020 1:47 pm, edited 2 times in total.
2 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
blp
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2537
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:51 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#152 Postby blp » Fri Sep 11, 2020 1:43 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Still too much interaction with Rene and the next system to its east..

waiting for the EPS.. and the next run..


I agree the problem now is the interaction with the system to the east which is closer. Still very uncertain forecast.
1 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Ubuntwo
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 563
Joined: Thu Oct 05, 2017 10:41 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#153 Postby Ubuntwo » Fri Sep 11, 2020 1:44 pm

Fancy1001 wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:There’s just not enough ridging this year for any Cape Verde long-tracking storms to hit the U.S. A contrast from the past five years.

Laura?

Laura wasn't a long tracking storm. It didn't develop until it got into the Caribbean

By that logic, neither did 2005. Shows the value of that metric.
0 likes   
Katrina (for its Florida landfall...) Wilma Matthew Irma

User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2644
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#154 Postby chris_fit » Fri Sep 11, 2020 2:06 pm

Majority of the 12Z EPS are clustered around the Operational run - EAST/North and probably out to sea round 55W/60W
2 likes   

User avatar
msbee
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2926
Joined: Wed Jun 11, 2003 10:11 am
Location: St. Maarten

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#155 Postby msbee » Fri Sep 11, 2020 2:21 pm

should I be nervous about this one?
0 likes   

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4039
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#156 Postby LarryWx » Fri Sep 11, 2020 2:26 pm

chris_fit wrote:Majority of the 12Z EPS are clustered around the Operational run - EAST/North and probably out to sea round 55W/60W


Yeah, whereas the 0Z EPS had ~1/4 of its members threatening the Caribbean and/or Bahamas/US, the 12Z has about half that doing the same or ~1/8 threatening those areas. So, now I can say that the entire 12Z suite of models is implying less of a threat to the Caribbean, CONUS, and Bahamas than before. But those areas are still far from getting the all clear at this very early stage, especially considering the other tropical features that increase unpredictability, the wild model swings that have occurred, it being La Niña, and with no LLC yet identified.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Hurricane Mike
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 234
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2018 7:44 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#157 Postby Hurricane Mike » Fri Sep 11, 2020 2:42 pm

LarryWx wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:There’s just not enough ridging this year for any Cape Verde long-tracking storms to hit the U.S. A contrast from the past five years.


I consider Laura a CV/longtracking storm with it becoming a TD before 50W 4 days after coming off Africa. By that measure, many seasons have none (TD east of 50W) hit the CONUS.

It depends on one’s definition, of course:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meteoro ... _track.png


I for one hate when people do that. When I was a kid and teen, tracking hurricanes in the 1990s and 2000s, the tracks showed from Tropical Depression to dissipation. Now these maps show dots for when the system was an invest. I can't stand it. Erks me.
Last edited by Hurricane Mike on Fri Sep 11, 2020 2:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 22417
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#158 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 11, 2020 2:43 pm

Definitely a turn at the end with 18Z guidance:

Image
1 likes   

otowntiger
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1657
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:06 pm
Location: Orlando

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#159 Postby otowntiger » Fri Sep 11, 2020 2:43 pm

LarryWx wrote:
chris_fit wrote:Majority of the 12Z EPS are clustered around the Operational run - EAST/North and probably out to sea round 55W/60W


Yeah, whereas the 0Z EPS had ~1/4 of its members threatening the Caribbean and/or Bahamas/US, the 12Z has about half that doing the same or ~1/8 threatening those areas. So, now I can say that the entire 12Z suite of models is implying less of a threat to the Caribbean, CONUS, and Bahamas than before. But those areas are still far from getting the all clear at this very early stage, especially considering the other tropical features that increase unpredictability, the wild model swings that have occurred, it being La Niña, and with no LLC yet identified.
. Agreed. Trends are certainly good today, but it is still way too early to rule anything in or out given the usual uncertainties for this range but even more so given the wild day to day swings we’ve witnessed in the models this year. Wild swings and inconsistency have been more prevalent than years past.
1 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 22417
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#160 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 11, 2020 2:47 pm

The GFS and ECMWF are in excellent agreement on where this storm is at one week out. Looks to be recurving well NE of the islands,

Image
Image
1 likes   


Return to “2020”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests