ATL: TEDDY - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#201 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Sep 12, 2020 7:40 am

gatorcane wrote:Wow After run after run of a major hurricane the GFS is MUCH weaker. So is the Euro :eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/TY3W4mxG/gfs-mslp-pcpn-eatl-fh30-210.gif

Nearly drops development like a rock! Euro too is much weaker.
:double:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#202 Postby St0rmTh0r » Sat Sep 12, 2020 7:43 am

Definitely not buying GFS or Euro. The basin is in a hyperactive period at the peak of the season. This is more than likely to be a big storm
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#203 Postby aspen » Sat Sep 12, 2020 8:38 am

The GFS and Euro are having the same problems the CMC has had for days: they get 95L tangled up in the massive broad spin that also includes 97L, and both AOIs try to merge together. The NAVGEM also follows suit. However, the ICON shows them slowly breaking apart by 96-108 hours as 95L continues to track westward.

Either we’ll get weak Teddy from both systems (not particularly likely IMO), or Teddy from 95L and Vicky from 97L (more likely given 95L’s organization).
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#204 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Sep 12, 2020 10:09 am

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:00z Euro drags the system due north and completely dissipates it.

No words. After run-after-run of showing a major hurricane recurving away from land, completely drops it right before genesis despite good agreement with every other major global model.

Euro might actually be the worst model at predicting TC genesis. NAVGEM is better.


Guess I was wrong, it wasn't just the Euro. The models are all no longer showing development of this system.

Had a feeling this would be another strugglecane. The MDR is not capable of supporting a major hurricane this year.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#205 Postby Loveweather12 » Sat Sep 12, 2020 10:16 am

How might that affect the track downstream? More west?


Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:00z Euro drags the system due north and completely dissipates it.

No words. After run-after-run of showing a major hurricane recurving away from land, completely drops it right before genesis despite good agreement with every other major global model.

Euro might actually be the worst model at predicting TC genesis. NAVGEM is better.


Guess I was wrong, it wasn't just the Euro. The models are all no longer showing development of this system.

Had a feeling this would be another strugglecane. The MDR is not capable of supporting a major hurricane this year.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#206 Postby Spacecoast » Sat Sep 12, 2020 10:19 am

06z GEFS - Much weaker hours-24-72
Image

0z ECMF Weaker also
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#207 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Sep 12, 2020 10:52 am

12z GFS has a hurricane again..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#208 Postby aspen » Sat Sep 12, 2020 11:34 am

12z ICON refuses to let 95L interact with 97L. Because of that, it gets further west and is able to recurve into warmer waters, and at 120 hrs it has an intensifying Hurricane Teddy in a region capable of supporting a Cat 4 hurricane.

It seems like the model trends are pointing towards a system that recurves well away from the Lesser Antilles, but has the potential to become a powerful hurricane and meander for a while. Teddy could become a serious ACE producer that keeps to himself and doesn't really impact anyone.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#209 Postby LarryWx » Sat Sep 12, 2020 12:46 pm

aspen wrote:12z ICON refuses to let 95L interact with 97L. Because of that, it gets further west and is able to recurve into warmer waters, and at 120 hrs it has an intensifying Hurricane Teddy in a region capable of supporting a Cat 4 hurricane.

It seems like the model trends are pointing towards a system that recurves well away from the Lesser Antilles, but has the potential to become a powerful hurricane and meander for a while. Teddy could become a serious ACE producer that keeps to himself and doesn't really impact anyone.


12z UK: strongest yet; Bermuda later?

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 13.2N 41.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.09.2020 48 13.2N 41.7W 1010 29
0000UTC 15.09.2020 60 12.8N 45.0W 1007 31
1200UTC 15.09.2020 72 13.2N 47.8W 1004 34
0000UTC 16.09.2020 84 13.9N 49.5W 1001 37
1200UTC 16.09.2020 96 14.8N 51.6W 996 42
0000UTC 17.09.2020 108 16.1N 53.2W 990 51
1200UTC 17.09.2020 120 17.7N 54.2W 976 65
0000UTC 18.09.2020 132 19.5N 55.5W 959 76
1200UTC 18.09.2020 144 21.1N 57.1W 947 83
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#210 Postby Michele B » Sat Sep 12, 2020 2:35 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#211 Postby TimSmith » Sat Sep 12, 2020 3:32 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:There’s just not enough ridging this year for any Cape Verde long-tracking storms to hit the U.S. A contrast from the past five years.


This is post is great.. Not just that it is spot on scientifically, but it is very great news for us east coastal residents! Perhaps we could find a way to make it stay like this. Maybe Washington could create a ridge blaster in the name of national safety??? Anyways, still think soon to be Teddy is gonna stay south for quite a while & intensification looks clearly primed - let's just hope , as we continue to monitor, that the models tell us he'll be making that turn before any land
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#212 Postby Loveweather12 » Sat Sep 12, 2020 4:02 pm

So basically what you & “The Storm Expert” are saying is that the season is over for East Coast Residents? You alluded to that & I just want to make sure what you mean. If the season is over for us East coast people, especially in FL, I will surely stop watching the tropics then. I just want to understand what you’re saying

TimSmith wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:There’s just not enough ridging this year for any Cape Verde long-tracking storms to hit the U.S. A contrast from the past five years.


This is post is great.. Not just that it is spot on scientifically, but it is very great news for us east coastal residents! Perhaps we could find a way to make it stay like this. Maybe Washington could create a ridge blaster in the name of national safety??? Anyways, still think soon to be Teddy is gonna stay south for quite a while & intensification looks clearly primed - let's just hope , as we continue to monitor, that the models tell us he'll be making that turn before any land
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Re: ATL: TWENTY - Models

#213 Postby weeniepatrol » Sat Sep 12, 2020 4:03 pm

I'm not sure how or why it needs to be said, but this season is not over for the east coast.
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Re: ATL: TWENTY - Models

#214 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sat Sep 12, 2020 4:04 pm

Loveweather12 wrote:So basically what you & “The Storm Expert” are saying is that the season is over for East Coast Residents? You alluded to that & I just want to make sure what you mean. If the season is over for us East coast people, especially in FL, I will surely stop watching the tropics then. I just want to understand what you’re saying

TimSmith wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:There’s just not enough ridging this year for any Cape Verde long-tracking storms to hit the U.S. A contrast from the past five years.


This is post is great.. Not just that it is spot on scientifically, but it is very great news for us east coastal residents! Perhaps we could find a way to make it stay like this. Maybe Washington could create a ridge blaster in the name of national safety??? Anyways, still think soon to be Teddy is gonna stay south for quite a while & intensification looks clearly primed - let's just hope , as we continue to monitor, that the models tell us he'll be making that turn before any land

The season is not over. Models can barely predict 5 days out, let alone 90
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Re: ATL: TWENTY - Models

#215 Postby Loveweather12 » Sat Sep 12, 2020 4:11 pm

I know. I know it’s a models page it’s just blank statements they made don’t help & can get people off guard. But Interested to see where Teddy Goes.


cheezyWXguy wrote:
Loveweather12 wrote:So basically what you & “The Storm Expert” are saying is that the season is over for East Coast Residents? You alluded to that & I just want to make sure what you mean. If the season is over for us East coast people, especially in FL, I will surely stop watching the tropics then. I just want to understand what you’re saying

TimSmith wrote:
This is post is great.. Not just that it is spot on scientifically, but it is very great news for us east coastal residents! Perhaps we could find a way to make it stay like this. Maybe Washington could create a ridge blaster in the name of national safety??? Anyways, still think soon to be Teddy is gonna stay south for quite a while & intensification looks clearly primed - let's just hope , as we continue to monitor, that the models tell us he'll be making that turn before any land

The season is not over. Models can barely predict 5 days out, let alone 90
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Re: ATL: TWENTY - Models

#216 Postby Fishing » Sat Sep 12, 2020 4:42 pm

Loveweather12 wrote:I know. I know it’s a models page it’s just blank statements they made don’t help & can get people off guard. But Interested to see where Teddy Goes.


cheezyWXguy wrote:
Loveweather12 wrote:So basically what you & “The Storm Expert” are saying is that the season is over for East Coast Residents? You alluded to that & I just want to make sure what you mean. If the season is over for us East coast people, especially in FL, I will surely stop watching the tropics then. I just want to understand what you’re saying


The season is not over. Models can barely predict 5 days out, let alone 90

They used to have a disclaimer on here that was required and have done away with it. It’s the opinion of the poster and after a while you get used to it and you’ll recognize names etc. I’m sure not many of us took that as gospel. We who live on the east coast and in particular have been through hurricanes and recovery definitely know better.


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Re: ATL: TWENTY - Models

#217 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sat Sep 12, 2020 4:44 pm

Fishing wrote:
Loveweather12 wrote:I know. I know it’s a models page it’s just blank statements they made don’t help & can get people off guard. But Interested to see where Teddy Goes.


cheezyWXguy wrote:The season is not over. Models can barely predict 5 days out, let alone 90

They used to have a disclaimer on here that was required and have done away with it. It’s the opinion of the poster and after a while you get used to it and you’ll recognize names etc. I’m sure not many of us took that as gospel. We who live on the east coast and in particular have been through hurricanes and recovery definitely know better.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

It’s not done away with, it’s at the top of every page
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Re: ATL: TWENTY - Models

#218 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Sep 12, 2020 4:48 pm

Loveweather12 wrote:So basically what you & “The Storm Expert” are saying is that the season is over for East Coast Residents? You alluded to that & I just want to make sure what you mean. If the season is over for us East coast people, especially in FL, I will surely stop watching the tropics then. I just want to understand what you’re saying

TimSmith wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:There’s just not enough ridging this year for any Cape Verde long-tracking storms to hit the U.S. A contrast from the past five years.


This is post is great.. Not just that it is spot on scientifically, but it is very great news for us east coastal residents! Perhaps we could find a way to make it stay like this. Maybe Washington could create a ridge blaster in the name of national safety??? Anyways, still think soon to be Teddy is gonna stay south for quite a while & intensification looks clearly primed - let's just hope , as we continue to monitor, that the models tell us he'll be making that turn before any land

If these troughs keep moving through which is usually the case by mid-late September then yes. But of course there are exceptions such as Sandy.

For Florida October tends to see more strikes from TC’s than September or August.
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Re: ATL: TWENTY - Models

#219 Postby FireRat » Sat Sep 12, 2020 4:58 pm

Good to see that at least the model trends for 20 are hinting at a fish... however one word of caution:
Pay attention to what's going on with Rene, the models have taken a bizarre turn with Rene and consensus has him diving SW all the way towards being just above the northern Lesser Antilles in 144 hours. This makes me think that whatever forces Rene SW could probably also block 20/Teddy from recurving so fast, especially if he was to do this in the same general area and around the same time as Rene's projected hard left.

It's still not set in stone that future Teddy will miss the Leewards.
Here's to hoping that model trends don't change tomorrow and have a threat on the table once again. Hopefully the Rene models are on crack.
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Re: ATL: TWENTY - Models

#220 Postby aspen » Sat Sep 12, 2020 5:07 pm

FireRat wrote:Good to see that at least the model trends for 20 are hinting at a fish... however one word of caution:
Pay attention to what's going on with Rene, the models have taken a bizarre turn with Rene and consensus has him diving SW all the way towards being just above the northern Lesser Antilles in 144 hours. This makes me think that whatever forces Rene SW could probably also block 20/Teddy from recurving so fast, especially if he was to do this in the same general area and around the same time as Rene's projected hard left.

It's still not set in stone that future Teddy will miss the Leewards.
Here's to hoping that model trends don't change tomorrow and have a threat on the table once again. Hopefully the Rene models are on crack.

I’m doubtful Rene could even survive to that point. The current forecast cone shows the remnant low dissipating prior to day 5. How much could an extremely weak Rene impact Teddy’s track through that area?
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