ATL: TEDDY - Models

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FireRat
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Re: ATL: TWENTY - Models

#221 Postby FireRat » Sat Sep 12, 2020 5:14 pm

aspen wrote:I’m doubtful Rene could even survive to that point. The current forecast cone shows the remnant low dissipating prior to day 5. How much could an extremely weak Rene impact Teddy’s track through that area?


It's more like what is going to make Rene's remnants move SW all the way like that? it really is bizarre. If Teddy were to not get as strong as fast as we may be thinking, perhaps the lower level steering flow that would shove Rene SW would keep Teddy more west as well. Even if Teddy becomes a powerhouse, it is kind of weird to imagine Teddy heading NW while the remnants of Rene move SW just to his west at hours 120-144. But who knows, perhaps I'm missing something lol.
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Re: ATL: TWENTY - Models

#222 Postby TimSmith » Sat Sep 12, 2020 6:00 pm

Loveweather12 wrote:So basically what you & “The Storm Expert” are saying is that the season is over for East Coast Residents? You alluded to that & I just want to make sure what you mean. If the season is over for us East coast people, especially in FL, I will surely stop watching the tropics then. I just want to understand what you’re saying

TimSmith wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:There’s just not enough ridging this year for any Cape Verde long-tracking storms to hit the U.S. A contrast from the past five years.


This is post is great.. Not just that it is spot on scientifically, but it is very great news for us east coastal residents! Perhaps we could find a way to make it stay like this. Maybe Washington could create a ridge blaster in the name of national safety??? Anyways, still think soon to be Teddy is gonna stay south for quite a while & intensification looks clearly primed - let's just hope , as we continue to monitor, that the models tell us he'll be making that turn before any land


You might want to reread what was posted as I did not intend to make any prediction like you noted, and if anyway that's what hearing please NO. What said essentially was "wouldn't it be nice if could keep that ridge away," and then added a joke about our government making a ridge blaster LOL There was no prediction that it was going to permanently stay away, just a comment made after an observation of current trends with an accurate comparison to why this season, so far, had been very different than past few! 2020 season is far from over!!


Anyways, lets stick to analyzing the models which currently seem to be saying we're gonna be OK with soon to be Teddy, but it is quite possible that the next one which they'll call Vicki may find very different conditions. I see more waves predicted to move off the coast and historically speaking we've got a good few more weeks of peak time left, so.......
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Re: ATL: TWENTY - Models

#223 Postby Monsoonjr99 » Sat Sep 12, 2020 6:33 pm

FireRat wrote:It's more like what is going to make Rene's remnants move SW all the way like that? it really is bizarre. If Teddy were to not get as strong as fast as we may be thinking, perhaps the lower level steering flow that would shove Rene SW would keep Teddy more west as well. Even if Teddy becomes a powerhouse, it is kind of weird to imagine Teddy heading NW while the remnants of Rene move SW just to his west at hours 120-144. But who knows, perhaps I'm missing something lol.

To me it seems that Rene starts moving west-southwestward due to the ridge to its north, but Paulette soon creates a weakness which allows 20L/Teddy to begin recurving. Rene seems to continue heading southwestward, however, due to Fujiwhara interaction with 20L/Teddy.
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Re: ATL: TWENTY - Models

#224 Postby aspen » Sun Sep 13, 2020 7:05 pm

18z HWRF bombs this out to a Cat 4 in 4-5 days. It's also the furthest west model run, so it has Teddy pass into some waters with a MPI of 890-900 mbar.
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Re: ATL: TWENTY - Models

#225 Postby Blinhart » Sun Sep 13, 2020 9:17 pm

aspen wrote:18z HWRF bombs this out to a Cat 4 in 4-5 days. It's also the furthest west model run, so it has Teddy pass into some waters with a MPI of 890-900 mbar.
https://i.imgur.com/e1tAFXA.png
https://i.imgur.com/eVT7ItF.png
https://i.imgur.com/EMau2L0.png
https://i.imgur.com/XmaI3ay.png


Really hope this doesn't verify
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Re: ATL: TWENTY - Models

#226 Postby SconnieCane » Sun Sep 13, 2020 9:21 pm

Blinhart wrote:
aspen wrote:18z HWRF bombs this out to a Cat 4 in 4-5 days. It's also the furthest west model run, so it has Teddy pass into some waters with a MPI of 890-900 mbar.
https://i.imgur.com/e1tAFXA.png
https://i.imgur.com/eVT7ItF.png
https://i.imgur.com/EMau2L0.png
https://i.imgur.com/XmaI3ay.png


Really hope this doesn't verify


Why not? It's missing the islands to the NE.
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Re: ATL: TWENTY - Models

#227 Postby Blinhart » Sun Sep 13, 2020 9:39 pm

SconnieCane wrote:
Blinhart wrote:
aspen wrote:18z HWRF bombs this out to a Cat 4 in 4-5 days. It's also the furthest west model run, so it has Teddy pass into some waters with a MPI of 890-900 mbar.
https://i.imgur.com/e1tAFXA.png
https://i.imgur.com/eVT7ItF.png
https://i.imgur.com/EMau2L0.png
https://i.imgur.com/XmaI3ay.png


Really hope this doesn't verify


Why not? It's missing the islands to the NE.


Because in that location it will be hitting some land somewhere.
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Re: ATL: TWENTY - Models

#228 Postby SconnieCane » Sun Sep 13, 2020 9:45 pm

Blinhart wrote:
SconnieCane wrote:
Blinhart wrote:
Really hope this doesn't verify


Why not? It's missing the islands to the NE.


Because in that location it will be hitting some land somewhere.


Not necessarily. Could easily recurve and miss everything from there, in fact that's a likely outcome based on the model solutions. But I wouldn't rule anything out at this point.
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Re: ATL: TWENTY - Models

#229 Postby Blinhart » Sun Sep 13, 2020 9:55 pm

SconnieCane wrote:
Blinhart wrote:
SconnieCane wrote:
Why not? It's missing the islands to the NE.


Because in that location it will be hitting some land somewhere.


Not necessarily. Could easily recurve and miss everything from there, in fact that's a likely outcome based on the model solutions. But I wouldn't rule anything out at this point.



It would have to go almost due North from there right away to miss Bermuda.
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Re: ATL: TWENTY - Models

#230 Postby Fancy1001 » Sun Sep 13, 2020 11:07 pm

Teddy is a decent amount west in the 00z gfs.
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Re: ATL: TWENTY - Models

#231 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sun Sep 13, 2020 11:14 pm

Fancy1001 wrote:Teddy is a decent amount west in the 00z gfs.


Definitely far enough west that Bermuda needs to pay attention to it.
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Re: ATL: TWENTY - Models

#232 Postby La Breeze » Sun Sep 13, 2020 11:17 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:
Fancy1001 wrote:Teddy is a decent amount west in the 00z gfs.


Definitely far enough west that Bermuda needs to pay attention to it.

Is this system expected to turn north?
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Re: ATL: TWENTY - Models

#233 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sun Sep 13, 2020 11:18 pm

La Breeze wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:
Fancy1001 wrote:Teddy is a decent amount west in the 00z gfs.


Definitely far enough west that Bermuda needs to pay attention to it.

Is this system expected to turn north?


Expected to turn North and most likely recurve into the open Atlantic. But as complicated and crowded as things are out there right now I wouldn't place any bets on anything. The CMC is coming in further west from it's 12z run also.
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Re: ATL: TWENTY - Models

#234 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 13, 2020 11:52 pm

CMC takes it into Nova Scotia as a significant hurricane.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#235 Postby Kazmit » Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:13 am

12z GFS looking like another Bermuda threat.

Image
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#236 Postby ColdMiser123 » Mon Sep 14, 2020 12:52 pm

GEFS says keep an eye on this still in Bermuda, New England, and Atlantic Canada:

Image
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#237 Postby LarryWx » Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:11 pm

For Teddy: This 12Z EPS, out to 240, gets a few members close to the NE US!

Image

Later, most of those close members either hit, skim, or just miss the NE US.

Edit: I believe that the closer Teddy comes to the US, the lower the chance of homebrew off the SE coast next week.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#238 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:25 pm

LarryWx wrote:For Teddy: This 12Z EPS, out to 240, gets a few members close to the NE US!

https://i.imgur.com/UYEa2gg.gif

Later, most of those close members either hit, skim, or just miss the NE US.

Edit: I believe that the closer Teddy comes to the US, the lower the chance of homebrew off the SE coast next week.


That homebrew would be the remnants of Sally? And yes, it does seem a ridge wants to rebuild next week.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#239 Postby Keldeo1997 » Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:52 pm

 https://twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/1305603782940733441




Teddy might not be 100% a Fish yet
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#240 Postby aspen » Mon Sep 14, 2020 6:54 pm

Keldeo1997 wrote:https://twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/1305603782940733441

Teddy might not be 100% a Fish yet

The ICON and HWRF’s persistence on a W turn by days 4-6 is just as concerning. There’s no guarantee Teddy will remain a phish storm given the model spread and forecast uncertainty past 5 days.
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