ATL: TEDDY - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4783
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Location: GA/TN

Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#361 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:37 pm

12z euro trying its best to create a doomsday run

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Hybridstorm_November2001
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2706
Joined: Sat Aug 21, 2004 2:50 pm
Location: SW New Brunswick, Canada
Contact:

Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#362 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:38 pm

PavelGaborik10 wrote:Euro comes a tad E. Landfall in Southern Nova Scotia.

Were starting to see models come into better agreement now. Odds of a New England landfall are certainly much slimmer than they were 24 hours ago.

Maine still seems possible.


Maine is a part of New England (Maine, New Hamshpire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island & Connecticut) just saying. It is less populated but is also the largest New England state in terms of area, I believe.
5 likes   

User avatar
Hybridstorm_November2001
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2706
Joined: Sat Aug 21, 2004 2:50 pm
Location: SW New Brunswick, Canada
Contact:

Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#363 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:42 pm

supercane4867 wrote:12z euro trying its best to create a doomsday run

https://i.imgur.com/2qQBX6j.png


I wish there was a dislike button lol. Even if the worst part misses here (depends where the system goes next), our neighbors in Nova Scotia will get destroyed along perhaps with SE New Brunswick. :cry: :eek:
0 likes   

User avatar
ColdMiser123
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 612
Age: 24
Joined: Mon Sep 26, 2016 3:26 pm
Location: Northeast US

Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#364 Postby ColdMiser123 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:50 pm

There is plenty of room for bumps either way, since this is a phasing situation. So many details will contribute to the exact track of this.

Euro remains largely consistent though, and this should continue to be watched in Maine, New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia as the exact evolution becomes more clear in the coming days.
Last edited by ColdMiser123 on Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
2 likes   
B.S. Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, 2018
M.S. Graduate Student researching data assimilation methods for convective initiation forecasts, Meteorology and Atmospheric Science

PavelGaborik10
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 194
Joined: Tue Sep 04, 2018 3:23 pm

Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#365 Postby PavelGaborik10 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:51 pm

Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:
PavelGaborik10 wrote:Euro comes a tad E. Landfall in Southern Nova Scotia.

Were starting to see models come into better agreement now. Odds of a New England landfall are certainly much slimmer than they were 24 hours ago.

Maine still seems possible.



Maine is a part of New England (Maine, New Hamshpire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island & Connecticut) just saying. It is less populated but is also the largest New England state in terms of area, I believe.


I genuinely had no idea MA and Rhode Island were considered part of New England. Perhaps my geography isn't as strong as I believed lol.

MA/NH landfall odds are quite low, while I believe the odds of a Maine landfall are decreasing they certainly still exist. Lots of models now with a bullseye on Nova Scotia with plenty recurving after a close call.

We should have a better idea over the next couple of days.
0 likes   

User avatar
Hybridstorm_November2001
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2706
Joined: Sat Aug 21, 2004 2:50 pm
Location: SW New Brunswick, Canada
Contact:

Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#366 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:53 pm

PavelGaborik10 wrote:
Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:
PavelGaborik10 wrote:Euro comes a tad E. Landfall in Southern Nova Scotia.

Were starting to see models come into better agreement now. Odds of a New England landfall are certainly much slimmer than they were 24 hours ago.

Maine still seems possible.



Maine is a part of New England (Maine, New Hamshpire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island & Connecticut) just saying. It is less populated but is also the largest New England state in terms of area, I believe.


I genuinely had no idea MA and Rhode Island were considered part of New England. Perhaps my geography isn't as strong as I believed lol.

MA/NH landfall odds are quite low, while I believe the odds of a Maine landfall are decreasing they certainly still exist. Lots of models now with a bullseye on Nova Scotia with plenty recurving after a close call.

We should have a better idea over the next couple of days.


The thing is, this is such a large system it could still cause bad effects even if the center makes landfall nearby (in relative terms). Teddy gets HUGE on the latest Euro and so does his windfield and rain shield. :eek:
2 likes   

tomatkins
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 166
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2018 2:11 pm

Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#367 Postby tomatkins » Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:53 pm

PavelGaborik10 wrote:
Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:
PavelGaborik10 wrote:Euro comes a tad E. Landfall in Southern Nova Scotia.

Were starting to see models come into better agreement now. Odds of a New England landfall are certainly much slimmer than they were 24 hours ago.

Maine still seems possible.


Has there ever been a New Hampshire landfall? This might be the best chance they get for the next century or something.


Maine is a part of New England (Maine, New Hamshpire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island & Connecticut) just saying. It is less populated but is also the largest New England state in terms of area, I believe.


I genuinely had no idea MA and Rhode Island were considered part of New England. Perhaps my geography isn't as strong as I believed lol.

MA/NH landfall odds are quite low, while I believe the odds of a Maine landfall are decreasing they certainly still exist. Lots of models now with a bullseye on Nova Scotia with plenty recurving after a close call.

We should have a better idea over the next couple of days.
0 likes   

User avatar
ColdMiser123
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 612
Age: 24
Joined: Mon Sep 26, 2016 3:26 pm
Location: Northeast US

Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#368 Postby ColdMiser123 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:56 pm

Such an expansive, intense wind field will lead to considerable surge values across a large swath as well.
1 likes   
B.S. Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, 2018
M.S. Graduate Student researching data assimilation methods for convective initiation forecasts, Meteorology and Atmospheric Science

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8901
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#369 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:58 pm

Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:
PavelGaborik10 wrote:
Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:

Maine is a part of New England (Maine, New Hamshpire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island & Connecticut) just saying. It is less populated but is also the largest New England state in terms of area, I believe.


I genuinely had no idea MA and Rhode Island were considered part of New England. Perhaps my geography isn't as strong as I believed lol.

MA/NH landfall odds are quite low, while I believe the odds of a Maine landfall are decreasing they certainly still exist. Lots of models now with a bullseye on Nova Scotia with plenty recurving after a close call.

We should have a better idea over the next couple of days.


The thing is, this is such a large system it could still cause bad effects even if the center makes landfall nearby (in relative terms). Teddy gets HUGE on the latest Euro and so does his windfield and rain shield. :eek:


Oh yes, big, bad Teddy will have a very massive wind field by the time we get into Monday and Tuesday. His impacts are going to be very significant and pronounced for sure.
0 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019

PavelGaborik10
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 194
Joined: Tue Sep 04, 2018 3:23 pm

Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#370 Postby PavelGaborik10 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 2:00 pm

Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:
PavelGaborik10 wrote:
Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:

Maine is a part of New England (Maine, New Hamshpire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island & Connecticut) just saying. It is less populated but is also the largest New England state in terms of area, I believe.


I genuinely had no idea MA and Rhode Island were considered part of New England. Perhaps my geography isn't as strong as I believed lol.

MA/NH landfall odds are quite low, while I believe the odds of a Maine landfall are decreasing they certainly still exist. Lots of models now with a bullseye on Nova Scotia with plenty recurving after a close call.

We should have a better idea over the next couple of days.


The thing is, this is such a large system it could still cause bad effects even if the center makes landfall nearby (in relative terms). Teddy gets HUGE on the latest Euro and so does his windfield and rain shield. :eek:


Thr only positive from the Euro is the high takes some time to depart which results in a slower motion from Teddy, who rapidly weakens about as quickly as I've ever seen a system.

Not sure what the pressure would be at landfall but it rises over 40 MB in just a 24 hour span. Which is crazy.

The size of the storm on some of these models as he phases is nothing short of insane though, no doubt about it. Almost Sandy-esque.
Last edited by PavelGaborik10 on Thu Sep 17, 2020 2:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
tiger_deF
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 380
Age: 19
Joined: Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:47 am

Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#371 Postby tiger_deF » Thu Sep 17, 2020 2:01 pm

When do the EPS ensembles come out?
0 likes   

User avatar
Hybridstorm_November2001
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2706
Joined: Sat Aug 21, 2004 2:50 pm
Location: SW New Brunswick, Canada
Contact:

Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#372 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 2:06 pm

Here is why I'm so worried about the model trend -

When we experienced Aruthur 2014 we were nowhere near the center (I live right along the coastal Maine/New Brunswick border and Aruthur as a strong TS strengthed system made landfall in Moncton about a hundred miles away) yet we still experienced twelve hours of sustained winds roughly 50 mph and frequent gusts to over 75 mph (peaked at 85 mph) because a string jet from the trough wrapped into Arthur's transiting center. I was taken by surprise because I expected most of the wind to be on the East Side (conventional wisdom). Arthur was our worst hurricane since Bob 1991. Areas as far inland and West as Houlton and Millinocket had gusts to at least 75 mph (which is why power was out for a month up there in the more remote rural places). We also had over six inches of rain in twelve hours. I hope something similar doesn't happened again.
2 likes   

PavelGaborik10
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 194
Joined: Tue Sep 04, 2018 3:23 pm

Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#373 Postby PavelGaborik10 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 2:20 pm

A few more ticks E from the Euro and a few more ticks W from the GFS and Nova Scotia very well could be put into a situation far worse than Juan.

Still a long, long way to go and I ultimately still believe this will make its way out to sea first and foremost but their odds have certainly increased today.
0 likes   

User avatar
Hybridstorm_November2001
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2706
Joined: Sat Aug 21, 2004 2:50 pm
Location: SW New Brunswick, Canada
Contact:

Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#374 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 2:24 pm

PavelGaborik10 wrote:A few more ticks E from the Euro and a few more ticks W from the GFS and Nova Scotia very well could be put into a situation far worse than Juan.

Still a long, long way to go and I ultimately still believe this will make its way out to sea first and foremost but their odds have certainly increased today.


I hope you're correct.
0 likes   

User avatar
cainjamin
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 121
Age: 29
Joined: Mon Apr 17, 2017 1:38 pm
Location: Nova Scotia, Canada

Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#375 Postby cainjamin » Thu Sep 17, 2020 2:55 pm

I live on the southern edge of Nova Scotia, so I'm watching the model runs with increasing unease. We're used to getting weakening storms coming from the southwest, but a fast track directly north would give Teddy as much time over the Gulf Stream as Juan, and we all know how that went. This could potentially be Canada's most expensive hurricane hit if some of these scenarios pan out, especially if it manages to hit Halifax directly.
2 likes   
Noel '07, Kyle '08, Earl '10, Arthur '14, Dorian '19, Teddy '20

User avatar
Beef Stew
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 181
Joined: Sat May 30, 2020 11:31 am
Location: South Florida

Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#376 Postby Beef Stew » Thu Sep 17, 2020 3:24 pm

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Hybridstorm_November2001
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2706
Joined: Sat Aug 21, 2004 2:50 pm
Location: SW New Brunswick, Canada
Contact:

Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#377 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 3:25 pm

cainjamin wrote:I live on the southern edge of Nova Scotia, so I'm watching the model runs with increasing unease. We're used to getting weakening storms coming from the southwest, but a fast track directly north would give Teddy as much time over the Gulf Stream as Juan, and we all know how that went. This could potentially be Canada's most expensive hurricane hit if some of these scenarios pan out, especially if it manages to hit Halifax directly.


The thing is Juan was a small very tight hurricane not a sprawling monster like Teddy. Outside of Central Nova Scotia and parts of Prince Edward Island, Hurricane Jaun did little to no damage in the greater region. I'd say Dorien caused damage over a far wider geographical area than did Juan, although Jaun's more concentrated damage was worse. If the Euro pans out damage will be far worse in Teddy than it was in Juan .
0 likes   

User avatar
TheDreamTraveler
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 508
Joined: Sun Aug 22, 2010 3:10 am
Location: Enola, PA

Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#378 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Thu Sep 17, 2020 4:39 pm

Also some trivia I found out the last hurricane to make landfall in Maine that didn't also hit New England first was hurricane Gerda in 1969

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1306673112528941056


0 likes   

User avatar
tiger_deF
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 380
Age: 19
Joined: Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:47 am

Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#379 Postby tiger_deF » Thu Sep 17, 2020 5:08 pm

18z GFS is a good bit west
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 31188
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#380 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 5:22 pm

It still seems that Bermuda is the critical point. West of Bermuda = New England. East of Bermuda = Atlantic Canada with a possible exit door.
0 likes   


Return to “2020”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests