ATL: TEDDY - Models

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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#381 Postby PavelGaborik10 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 5:32 pm

Icon and to a lesser extent are showing Teddy do a loop off the coast of Nova Scotia. Will be interesting to see if this becomes a trend.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#382 Postby ColdMiser123 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 5:33 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:It still seems that Bermuda is the critical point. West of Bermuda = New England. East of Bermuda = Atlantic Canada with a possible exit door.


This was my initial thought as well, the location and intensity of the upper level low bringing Teddy back to the west will also be crucial though. If it is stronger and farther west, that's more room for a bend west to take place, most likely at that point into Maine. Still a big difference between how much the ULL brings Teddy west on the GFS versus the ICON/Euro just because of location and intensity alone.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#383 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Sep 17, 2020 5:38 pm

ColdMiser123 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:It still seems that Bermuda is the critical point. West of Bermuda = New England. East of Bermuda = Atlantic Canada with a possible exit door.


This was my initial thought as well, the location and intensity of the upper level low bringing Teddy back to the west will also be crucial though. If it is stronger and farther west, that's more room for a bend west to take place, most likely at that point into Maine. Still a big difference between how much the ULL brings Teddy west on the GFS versus the ICON/Euro just because of location and intensity alone.

Gfs may trend west in future runs, ULL seemed stronger than this run than the previous
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#384 Postby Shell Mound » Thu Sep 17, 2020 5:47 pm

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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#385 Postby JahJa » Thu Sep 17, 2020 5:57 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:It still seems that Bermuda is the critical point. West of Bermuda = New England. East of Bermuda = Atlantic Canada with a possible exit door.


Yeah but what are the chances of it going over Bermuda.....asking for obvious reasons! That thing is an absolute monster. I was here in Bermuda for Igor and I remember how long it was over us!
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#386 Postby ColdMiser123 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 6:25 pm

The GEFS is always a great example of what an underdispersed (i.e. shows less variability than there should be) ensemble looks like. 24 hours ago, not a single member made landfall in Nova Scotia. Now at 18z, every single member now does. The EPS does a far better job with spread and true uncertainty of a given situation compared to the GEFS.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#387 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 9:12 pm

JahJa wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:It still seems that Bermuda is the critical point. West of Bermuda = New England. East of Bermuda = Atlantic Canada with a possible exit door.


Yeah but what are the chances of it going over Bermuda.....asking for obvious reasons! That thing is an absolute monster. I was here in Bermuda for Igor and I remember how long it was over us!


Given the size and intensity you'll receive impacts no matter what the question is how bad will these be? The truth is no one knows, yet. I'd play it safe by preparing well ahead of time.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#388 Postby PavelGaborik10 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:29 pm

The potential saving grace for Nova Scotia could be if he's captured early...would really slow him down and allow significant weakening before landfall.

If the low captured him a tad later, he'll end up in Halifax or further E as an absolute monster at peak(extratropical) intensity. If he's captured early, likely Yarmouth area/Maine.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#389 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:06 pm

PavelGaborik10 wrote:The potential saving grace for Nova Scotia could be if he's captured early...would really slow him down and allow significant weakening before landfall.

If the low captured him a tad later, he'll end up in Halifax or further E as an absolute monster at peak(extratropical) intensity. If he's captured early, likely Yarmouth area/Maine.


An early capture while farther east would open up the exits, as it would happen south of Nova Scotia before it has time to make landfall. That would slow it down and allow time for the ridge to weaken. However, that's an unlikely scenario.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#390 Postby PavelGaborik10 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:48 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
PavelGaborik10 wrote:The potential saving grace for Nova Scotia could be if he's captured early...would really slow him down and allow significant weakening before landfall.

If the low captured him a tad later, he'll end up in Halifax or further E as an absolute monster at peak(extratropical) intensity. If he's captured early, likely Yarmouth area/Maine.


An early capture while farther east would open up the exits, as it would happen south of Nova Scotia before it has time to make landfall. That would slow it down and allow time for the ridge to weaken. However, that's an unlikely scenario.


Interesting. It seems whenever the GFS captures the system later it tends to trend slightly E.

It stalled again this time off the coast, lost some punch before finally coming ashore but I imagine the storm would be significantly weaker if this did come to fruition by the time he came ashore.

A bit of an out there question considering it's still nearly five days out but is there any particular scenario you think is the most likely at this point? It's a tricky set up, I get it.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#391 Postby PavelGaborik10 » Fri Sep 18, 2020 1:37 am

Euro has landfall in Halifax, Nova Scotia as a monster system.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#392 Postby plasticup » Fri Sep 18, 2020 6:17 am

Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:
JahJa wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:It still seems that Bermuda is the critical point. West of Bermuda = New England. East of Bermuda = Atlantic Canada with a possible exit door.


Yeah but what are the chances of it going over Bermuda.....asking for obvious reasons! That thing is an absolute monster. I was here in Bermuda for Igor and I remember how long it was over us!


Given the size and intensity you'll receive impacts no matter what the question is how bad will these be? The truth is no one knows, yet. I'd play it safe by preparing well ahead of time.


NHC says 40% chance we don't even see TS winds.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#393 Postby kevin » Fri Sep 18, 2020 6:30 am

Euro landfalls it near Halifax with 958 mbar and sustained wind speeds of a strong TS or minimal cat 1 with gusts up to 179 kmh (111 mph, 97 kts).

Image

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#394 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Fri Sep 18, 2020 10:14 am

111 mph gusts would not be good for downtown Halifax. Most buildings up here, especially older buildings, would take damage as they aren't built to withstand 100 mph plus winds.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#395 Postby Spacecoast » Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:20 am

0z GEFS shows all white MSLP lower quadrant
Image
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#396 Postby ColdMiser123 » Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:46 am

Consensus building for a landfall near Halifax as a significant system, but I would caution that we are still 4-5 days out in a phasing situation, so details will definitely change going forward.

That being said, anyone in that region should be getting prepared for a high impact event.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#397 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Fri Sep 18, 2020 12:03 pm

kevin wrote:Euro landfalls it near Halifax with 958 mbar and sustained wind speeds of a strong TS or minimal cat 1 with gusts up to 179 kmh (111 mph, 97 kts).

https://i.imgur.com/shmmju5.png

https://i.imgur.com/1Qm3bYO.png

https://i.imgur.com/cd0Dosn.png


Euro wind gusts and wind speeds are always overdone by at least 20-30mph. So I'd chop that much off of it to get a better idea of the winds
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#398 Postby PavelGaborik10 » Fri Sep 18, 2020 12:13 pm

ColdMiser123 wrote:Consensus building for a landfall near Halifax as a significant system, but I would caution that we are still 4-5 days out in a phasing situation, so details will definitely change going forward.

That being said, anyone in that region should be getting prepared for a high impact event.


What are your thoughts on the stall scenario being shown by the GFS and icon? Teddy really burns himself out off the coast before finally coming ashore after rapidly weakening. Could certainly lessen the impacts dramatically.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#399 Postby ColdMiser123 » Fri Sep 18, 2020 12:23 pm

PavelGaborik10 wrote:
ColdMiser123 wrote:Consensus building for a landfall near Halifax as a significant system, but I would caution that we are still 4-5 days out in a phasing situation, so details will definitely change going forward.

That being said, anyone in that region should be getting prepared for a high impact event.


What are your thoughts on the stall scenario being shown by the GFS and icon? Teddy really burns himself out off the coast before finally coming ashore after rapidly weakening. Could certainly lessen the impacts dramatically.


I'm not convinced impacts would be reduced dramatically if that happened. Teddy will have a pretty impressive expanse of winds by then due to the phase, so impacts shouldn't be too much different if it stalls just offshore versus inland.

However, if it were to stall significantly south of Nova Scotia, then move north in a weakened state, impacts would be greatly reduced. Consensus at this time is for any stall to be very close to the coast, or inland. Euro still shows no stall, since it has a significantly stronger ridge that brings that brings this immediately inland.

But it is worth repeating that this is a phase situation involving a piece of energy that is still well north over Canada at this point, details will evolve going forward.
Last edited by ColdMiser123 on Fri Sep 18, 2020 12:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#400 Postby tomatkins » Fri Sep 18, 2020 12:23 pm

PavelGaborik10 wrote:
ColdMiser123 wrote:Consensus building for a landfall near Halifax as a significant system, but I would caution that we are still 4-5 days out in a phasing situation, so details will definitely change going forward.

That being said, anyone in that region should be getting prepared for a high impact event.


What are your thoughts on the stall scenario being shown by the GFS and icon? Teddy really burns himself out off the coast before finally coming ashore after rapidly weakening. Could certainly lessen the impacts dramatically.


Of the stall could happen a little further north just off shore and make things that much worse.
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