ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

To put any weight on what the models are predicting
after Laura and other storms this season is extremely
risky and unwise. I would be very careful with this one.
IMO

Don't forget Hanna.
Meteorologicaly it does not make any sense that with such a great environment and very warm SSTs it will only stay as a TW or TD.
If enough time over water I really will not doubt it becoming a hurricane before making landfall somewhere in the north central GOM, in my amateur opinion.

Hanna moved over the widest part of the GOM. 96L is not that. The reason I am putting stock in the models here is because given the expected track, there won't be much time. Obviously if this tracks further west than what models (GFS & Euro) are showing, all bets are off.

I disagree with you, with 72 hrs over the GOM, based on the latest GFS's vorticity forecast it is more than plenty of time for it to become a hurricane, don't forget that with Hanna it was fighting shear when it entered the GOM.

Edit: I just looked over the archives for Hanna, like I mentioned it entered the GOM on the 21st of July as a weak vorticity fighting southerly shear, well removed west of the deep convetion, it did not become a TD until late at night on the 22nd almost in the middle of the GOM by then and within 68 hrs it became a strong Cat 1 hurricane.
96L already looks better organized than Hanna when it was moving through the FL straingts.

[gatorcane]

Look at the small upper-level low to the north of it. Looks like that is just enough to keep some light shear over this until it gets into the EGOM where conditions look good:

[Crankin]

wxman, speedy healing to you.
I think you are underestimating this system, as are models.

[NDG]

This is what I see happening like I mentioned before, later today/tonight the low level vorticity and ML vorticity will get closer before making landfall over SE FL late tonight or early early tomorrow morning, I wouldn't doubt if it becomes at least TD before tracking over S FL, IMO.

[3090]

The big thing is if it misses SFL. That will give it time.

Southernmost Fla., is a vast wetland with zero elevation. It would not inhibit the system, much like the coastal areas of Louisiana would not inhibit a tropical system.

[Evil Jeremy]

Very drenchy weekend ahead for SFL, but that's nothing new. Hopefully this doesn't spin out of control in the Gulf.

Have there ever been 5 active storms in the Atlantic before? I know we've had 4, but seems to me there will be a small window early next week for 5 storms. Is that unprecedented?

[gatorcane]

I see a weak trof axis between SE FL and Andros island. SFC pressures 1012-1013 mb. System will likely move inland between SE LA and FL panhandle as a wave or TD Sunday/Monday. Possibility of weak TS, though model support for TS is minimal.

Status report: Broke my right radius bone where it connects to my wrist in a bike fall Monday. Surgery yesterday to repair with a titanium plate. Feels better no that the 3 pieces of my radius bone are secured. Hard to type left-handed. No lengthy discussions from me.

Ship north of Andros has incorrect pressure, at least.

http://wxman57.com/images/96La.JPG

Wow Wxman I was wondering where you were as you seemed MIA lately. Glad to see you back and recovering.

[3090]

This is what I see happening like I mentioned before, later today/tonight the low level vorticity and ML vorticity will get closer before making landfall over SE FL late tonight or early early tomorrow morning, I wouldn't doubt if it becomes at least TD before tracking over S FL, IMO.

https://i.imgur.com/1LD5xPg.gif

It is forecast to move thru the Florida straits, no?

[toad strangler]

Don't forget Hanna.
Meteorologicaly it does not make any sense that with such a great environment and very warm SSTs it will only stay as a TW or TD.
If enough time over water I really will not doubt it becoming a hurricane before making landfall somewhere in the north central GOM, in my amateur opinion.

Hanna moved over the widest part of the GOM. 96L is not that. The reason I am putting stock in the models here is because given the expected track, there won't be much time. Obviously if this tracks further west than what models (GFS & Euro) are showing, all bets are off.

I disagree with you, with 72 hrs over the GOM, based on the latest GFS's vorticity forecast it is more than plenty of time for it to become a hurricane, don't forget that with Hanna it was fighting shear when it entered the GOM.

All good, I disagree as well. If this takes a track that the GFS shows and especially the Euro, no shot at a 'cane. That's what makes this fun. We should bet profile pic changes for a week on it.

[gatorcane]

This is what I see happening like I mentioned before, later today/tonight the low level vorticity and ML vorticity will get closer before making landfall over SE FL late tonight or early early tomorrow morning, I wouldn't doubt if it becomes at least TD before tracking over S FL, IMO.

https://i.imgur.com/1LD5xPg.gif

It does look juicy and has that “look.” Good call for sniffing this out a few days back before even the NHC mentioned the area.

[SoupBone]

wxman, speedy healing to you.
I think you are underestimating this system, as are models.

Well, he and his team do get paid to do this.

As for the models, yeah they've done pretty poorly all season, but with only a few days until whatever happens to this system, happens, I just don't see them failing as bad as they do a week or more out. But it is 2020 so who knows...

[xironman]

Almost due west

[TheStormExpert]

I have a hard time seeing 96L not becoming at least a Tropical Storm in the Gulf. Could become Sally depending on how quickly 95L develops.

[NDG]

Hanna moved over the widest part of the GOM. 96L is not that. The reason I am putting stock in the models here is because given the expected track, there won't be much time. Obviously if this tracks further west than what models (GFS & Euro) are showing, all bets are off.

I disagree with you, with 72 hrs over the GOM, based on the latest GFS's vorticity forecast it is more than plenty of time for it to become a hurricane, don't forget that with Hanna it was fighting shear when it entered the GOM.

All good, I disagree as well. If this takes a track that the GFS shows and especially the Euro, no shot at a 'cane. That's what makes this fun. We should bet profile pic changes for a week on it.

BTW, 06z Euro keeps it offshore through its 90 hr forecast, just south of the MS/AL coast by then.

In case you missed my just edited reply to you:


Edit: I just looked over the archives for Hanna, like I mentioned it entered the GOM on the 21st of July as a weak vorticity fighting southerly shear, well removed west of the deep convetion, it did not become a TD until late at night on the 22nd almost in the middle of the GOM by then and within 68 hrs it became a strong Cat 1 hurricane.
96L already looks better organized than Hanna when it was moving through the FL straingts.

[Aric Dunn]

This looks like it may be more of an issue... if the llc develops that far east could easily become a TS before florida since it is moving so slow. . has two outflow channels as well
.

[TheStormExpert]

Looks better organized than 95L at the moment. With also more deep convection. Should be a rainy day at least tomorrow here in S.FL with 80-90% chances of rain.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

wxman, speedy healing to you.
I think you are underestimating this system, as are models.

Well, he and his team do get paid to do this.

As for the models, yeah they've done pretty poorly all season, but with only a few days until whatever happens to this system, happens, I just don't see them failing as bad as they do a week or more out. But it is 2020 so who knows...

They failed terribly with Hanna with just about as much notice.

[toad strangler]

I will say, unless looks are deceiving in this case, 96L looks much further S than the 00z Euro showed.

[blacktopninja]

Looks better organized than 95L at the moment. With also more deep convection. Should be a rainy day at least tomorrow here in S.FL with 80-90% chances of rain.

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/IllfatedPossibleFirecrest-size_restricted.gif

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/ColossalFreshFlatcoatretriever-size_restricted.gif

I'm leaning towards 100% chance of rain.

[psyclone]

Looks like a TD is forming or will soon. Stuff snaps together quickly in prime time. Also looks farther south which could be more problematic down the road with more time over water. More rain for FL. My zone is totally waterlogged now. we certainly made up for the early rainy season screw job on the west coast...