ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Chemmers]

Wouldn't be surprised to see a quick spin up with this system after it moves over Florida

[wxman57]

I see a weak trof axis between SE FL and Andros island. SFC pressures 1012-1013 mb. System will likely move inland between SE LA and FL panhandle as a wave or TD Sunday/Monday. Possibility of weak TS, though model support for TS is minimal.

Status report: Broke my right radius bone where it connects to my wrist in a bike fall Monday. Surgery yesterday to repair with a titanium plate. Feels better no that the 3 pieces of my radius bone are secured. Hard to type left-handed. No lengthy discussions from me.

Ship north of Andros has incorrect pressure, at least.

[Ken711]

I see a weak trof axis between SE FL and Andros island. SFC pressures 1012-1013 mb. System will likely move inland between SE LA and FL panhandle as a wave or TD this weekend. Possibility of weak TS, though model support for TS is minimal.

Status report: Broke my right radius bone where it connects to my wrist in a bike fall Monday. Surgery yesterday to repair with a titanium plate. Feels better no that the 3 pieces of my radius bone are secured. Hard to type left-handed. No lengthy discussions from me.

Ship north of Andros has incorrect pressure, at least.

http://wxman57.com/images/96La.JPG

Wxman57 sorry to hear about your bike accident, glad the surgery went well.

[NDG]

I see a weak trof axis between SE FL and Andros island. SFC pressures 1012-1013 mb. System will likely move inland between SE LA and FL panhandle as a wave or TD this weekend. Possibility of weak TS, though model support for TS is minimal.

Status report: Broke my right radius bone where it connects to my wrist in a bike fall Monday. Surgery yesterday to repair with a titanium plate. Feels better no that the 3 pieces of my radius bone are secured. Hard to type left-handed. No lengthy discussions from me.

Ship north of Andros has incorrect pressure, at least.

http://wxman57.com/images/96La.JPG

Ouch, sorry to hear about your injury. Bike falls are not fun, 3 times myself in the past 4 years, but luckly for me no broken bones, just scratches and bruces.

[gfsperpendicular]

Sorry to hear about your injury, wxman.
This disturbance is extremely photogenic this morning!

[tolakram]

Visible loop

https://whirlwind.aos.wisc.edu/~wxp/goes16/vis/goes16_gulf_3h.html

[Chemmers]

Sorry to hear about your arm, hope it improves soon

[toad strangler]

I know many of us are non believers in modeling this year and for good reason but I'm not expecting another whiff here. I think high end for 96L will be a TS. Unless a circulation gets going further south than what has been modeled. The GFS is further south than the Euro spitting out main vorticity around the Cape Coral area. Anything N of that lessens the chance for significant development IMO.

[northjaxpro]

Speedy recovery to the ole' sage one '57!

[Stormcenter]

To put any weight on what the models are predicting
after Laura and other storms this season is extremely
risky and unwise. I would be very careful with this one.
IMO

[NDG]

To put any weight on what the models are predicting
after Laura and other storms this season is extremely
risky and unwise. I would be very careful with this one.
IMO

Don't forget Hanna.
Meteorologicaly it does not make any sense that with such a great environment and very warm SSTs it will only stay as a TW or TD.
If enough time over water I really will not doubt it becoming a hurricane before making landfall somewhere in the north central GOM, in my amateur opinion.

[us89]

If this tracks east enough after it gets into the GOM, maybe we'll get some rain from it here in Atlanta. We haven't had real rain for almost two weeks now (though to be fair, the last time it rained a whole lot of the metro flooded so we're probably good for a while).

[HurricaneAndre2008]

* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL962020 09/11/20 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 39 47 55 65 69 72 70 72 67 66 63 63 61
V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 31 36 44 52 62 66 69 67 69 57 42 33 29 27
V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 33 33 39 45 51 57 61 63 63 61 41 32 29 27
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

[robbielyn]

To put any weight on what the models are predicting
after Laura and other storms this season is extremely
risky and unwise. I would be very careful with this one.
IMO

Don't forget Hanna.
Meteorologicaly it does not make any sense that with such a great environment and very warm SSTs it will only stay as a TW or TD.
If enough time over water I really will not doubt it becoming a hurricane before making landfall somewhere in the north central GOM, in my amateur opinion.

Cowan said the same thing about Hanna

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Hmm... do I spy a hint of banding features?

[toad strangler]

To put any weight on what the models are predicting
after Laura and other storms this season is extremely
risky and unwise. I would be very careful with this one.
IMO

Don't forget Hanna.
Meteorologicaly it does not make any sense that with such a great environment and very warm SSTs it will only stay as a TW or TD.
If enough time over water I really will not doubt it becoming a hurricane before making landfall somewhere in the north central GOM, in my amateur opinion.

Hanna moved over the widest part of the GOM. 96L is not that. The reason I am putting stock in the models here is because given the expected track, there won't be much time. Obviously if this tracks further west than what models (GFS & Euro) are showing, all bets are off.

[xironman]

The big thing is if it misses SFL. That will give it time.

[crimi481]

May also strengthen if tracks over everglades - ala Katrina

[p1nheadlarry]

Large PV Streamer currently over this.
Development is currently limited.
GFS forecasts the PVS to abate once this gets in the E GoM.
Need to watch afternoon popup convection over FL this weekend.
If it happens, would take out the PVS earlier than what GFS is currently forecasting.


https://i.imgur.com/eDd50YL.gif

The stickler in me winces at relative vorticity, but in the low latitudes it works since thermal gradients are relatively constant and Coriolis is small

[gatorcane]

Levin mention in his video how models missed Hannah in a similar scenario to this invest where they were playing catch- up. He showed how the Euro 850mb vorticity was playing catch-up. Not saying this will be a Hannah but I do think we can get a TS out of this given the way it looks now and the good upper-level environment. Time over water is the factor though as Hannah had more time.