ATL: SALLY - Models

[MississippiWx]

The GFS is either out to lunch or it’s onto something. It moved west at 18z and its ensembles moved way west. HWRF and HMON nudged west as well. The 18z Euro though...wow. It’s amazing the difference between it and the other 18z runs.

Considering sally's speed right now I am leaning towards Euro. GFS barely even moved west. HWRF actually shifted east by a few miles.

Lol. Speak for yourself when the GFS barely moved. The difference in the run made a huge difference in impacts for my location.

[Ivanhater]

Did the euro just stop south of Mobile bay? Looked to be on a nne heading

[Stormcenter]

All the models are out to lunch on this one.
They don’t have a clue.

[Steve]

I hope you guys aren’t betting your life’s savings
on any of these model runs. Remember these are
the same models that had Laura heading into Galveston
Bay and didn’t see Sally just 3 days ago. I’m mean there
is a reason why practically the entire central Gulf coast is
under a Hurricane warning. Talk about covering all
bases. Did any predict the stalls?

Yeah. There were stalls and loops and NW motion after landfall and northeast motionafter landfall. No storm at all. Etc. it’s all here in the thread but too much of a pain to search.

[LowerAlabamaTider]

This is from the NHC advisory last night at 7pm. As far as speed and direction she is doing pretty much what they were saying 24 hours ago.

"Sally is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue through tonight. A slower west-
northwestward motion is expected Monday and Monday night, followed
by a further decrease in forward speed and a turn to the northwest
Monday night and Tuesday."

[Blow_Hard]

Did the euro just stop south of Mobile bay? Looked to be on a nne heading

Looked that way. It stalled south of the MSR and appeared to be headed NNE...I was thinking the same thing. Maybe an Ivan type landfall.

[Ivanhater]

00Z early guidance. TVCN eastern mobile bay. I suspect another east shift at 10pm



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[Blow_Hard]

00Z early guidance. TVCN eastern mobile bay. I suspect another east shift at 10pm

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200915/cdde3089ff8383701dc7b97650435611.jpg

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Dude, you're killing me here...

[LowerAlabamaTider]

00Z early guidance. TVCN eastern mobile bay. I suspect another east shift at 10pm

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200915/cdde3089ff8383701dc7b97650435611.jpg

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At this rate I'll be able to sleep tonight much better. Mobile may once again dodge the bullet. My how fast things change.

[PTPatrick]

I hope you guys aren’t betting your life’s savings
on any of these model runs. Remember these are
the same models that had Laura heading into Galveston
Bay and didn’t see Sally just 3 days ago. I’m mean there
is a reason why practically the entire central Gulf coast is
under a Hurricane warning. Talk about covering all
bases. Did any predict the stalls?

Yeah. There were stalls and loops and NW motion after landfall and northeast motionafter landfall. No storm at all. Etc. it’s all here in the thread but too much of a pain to search.

No lives or fortunes have been bet on my model watching, lol. I told my mom to go ahead plan to get out yesterday when it was still pointed at New Orleans. Models last night helped me have an 8 hr lead to get them to get some stuff done last night that required a trailer that might have been hard today. Mother and valuables long gone north, regardless of what comes to pass. She lost it all in Katrina and doesn’t sweat it too much...knows lives are more important than stuff and acts accordingly without much risk taking.

[MidnightRain]

00Z early guidance. TVCN eastern mobile bay. I suspect another east shift at 10pm

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200915/cdde3089ff8383701dc7b97650435611.jpg

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At this rate I'll be able to sleep tonight much better. Mobile may once again dodge the bullet. My how fast things change.

Based on a single run? This is setting up to be pretty bad for Mobile actually.

[Ivanhater]

00Z early guidance. TVCN eastern mobile bay. I suspect another east shift at 10pm

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200915/cdde3089ff8383701dc7b97650435611.jpg

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At this rate I'll be able to sleep tonight much better. Mobile may once again dodge the bullet. My how fast things change.

Based on a single run? This is setting up to be pretty bad for Mobile actually.

Yeah, no one should be resting easy

[bella_may]

At this rate I'll be able to sleep tonight much better. Mobile may once again dodge the bullet. My how fast things change.

Based on a single run? This is setting up to be pretty bad for Mobile actually.

Yeah, no one should be resting easy

Feel a little better here in Mississippi though

[DestinHurricane]

00Z early guidance. TVCN eastern mobile bay. I suspect another east shift at 10pm

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200915/cdde3089ff8383701dc7b97650435611.jpg

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At this rate I'll be able to sleep tonight much better. Mobile may once again dodge the bullet. My how fast things change.

What? Mobile should be preparing for a direct hit from a cat 2 or 3.

[Steve]

Agreed. We don’t know. HWRF is bad for Mobile. It barely goes west from now and comes up in Jackson County with some strong north side bands. GFS is way more west at first. I’m not sure and haven’t looked at the discussion thread in a while but we see the convection blowing up on the south and west side. Just like a center can be pulled to convection NE it can work other ways too. GFS landfalls farther west than HWRF but gets farther west in the Gulf first too.

?

[LowerAlabamaTider]

00Z early guidance. TVCN eastern mobile bay. I suspect another east shift at 10pm

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200915/cdde3089ff8383701dc7b97650435611.jpg

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At this rate I'll be able to sleep tonight much better. Mobile may once again dodge the bullet. My how fast things change.

What? Mobile should be preparing for a direct hit from a cat 2 or 3.

It seems like so many times through the years when one has been projected to hit Mobile they go east of us by just a tad.

[shiny-pebble]

Sorry wrong thread!!

[NDG]

There has been one experimental hurricane model, that has been persistent since at least Friday night on landfall near Mobile Bay 30 miles east or west, and has been persistent ever since then on every run even when the GFS and Euro shifted back towards SE LA on Saturday it stuck to its guns, its latest 0z track did shift a little to the west now calling for landfall right through Mobile.

[DestinHurricane]

At this rate I'll be able to sleep tonight much better. Mobile may once again dodge the bullet. My how fast things change.

What? Mobile should be preparing for a direct hit from a cat 2 or 3.

It seems like so many times through the years when one has been projected to hit Mobile they go east of us by just a tad.

You cannot use that as justification. You need to be preparing for a direct hit as NHC says.

[LowerAlabamaTider]

What? Mobile should be preparing for a direct hit from a cat 2 or 3.

It seems like so many times through the years when one has been projected to hit Mobile they go east of us by just a tad.

You cannot use that as justification. You need to be preparing for a direct hit as NHC says.

We are ready if she does come our way. Thanks!!