ATL: SALLY - Models

[Ivanhater]

00Z Icon finally on board. Landfall around Mobilehttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200912/339329f1613809df1537b298b6fa878e.jpg

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

GFS too

Yep, gfs shifted way east and that was skewing the TVCN consensus further south. That may move east if the other models stay the same and thus move the track.

[PTPatrick]

Not sure I buy the 0z gfs. Just sort of stalls off the mouth of the Mississippi before finally moving into Mississippi or New Orleans at 96 hrs. Just rather weird. It looks weak. I’m guessing as it develops and gfs gets a better handle it scoots it in more toward Tuesday or Monday but we shall see

[NDG]

0z GFS is coming in a little stronger with the storm compared to previous runs and still persistent with its more westward track towards lower SE LA but then it takes a hard right towards the LA/MS border. Shows slightly stronger ridging to the north over the mid MS River Valley before making the hard right turn.

[DestinHurricane]

00Z GFS still very weak. I think we will see more east shifts once the globals start showing a stronger storm.

[Blinhart]

I think we will see West shifts coming up for now on until landfall.

[DestinHurricane]

I think we will see West shifts coming up for now on until landfall.

Why? Trend has been stronger storm and a stronger storm will move north.

[La Breeze]

I think we will see West shifts coming up for now on until landfall.

What would cause a western shift, Blinhart?

[NDG]

Notice the trend towards slightly stronger ridging to the north of the system while is south of the FL Panhandle by the latest GFS, even if it gets stronger it can't go inland over the FL Panhandle.

[DestinHurricane]

Notice the trend towards slightly stronger ridging to the north of the system while is south of the FL Panhandle by the latest GFS, even if it gets stronger it can't go inland over the FL Panhandle.

https://i.imgur.com/1Z9X9Me.gif

I think a stronger storm would prevent the ridge from building in over the panhandle.

[Blinhart]

I think we will see West shifts coming up for now on until landfall.

What would cause a western shift, Blinhart?

Because this giant dome of High pressure and high temps over Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi won't let this thing go there. Texas and Louisiana is the only place this thing can go if it doesn't go to Mexico. Right now I say anywhere from Brownsville to New Orleans needs to keep an eye on this, until we get a front that can get all the way down to the Gulf and through to Jacksonville, the lid is on the Panhandle.

[Ivanhater]

Right. Again, the gfs shifted much further east and caused the TVCN to skew south. If anything does move further west it is likely to be highly sheared

[Ivanhater]

I think we will see West shifts coming up for now on until landfall.

What would cause a western shift, Blinhart?

Because this giant dome of High pressure and high temps over Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi won't let this thing go there. Texas and Louisiana is the only place this thing can go if it doesn't go to Mexico. Right now I say anywhere from Brownsville to New Orleans needs to keep an eye on this, until we get a front that can get all the way down to the Gulf and through to Jacksonville, the lid is on the Panhandle.

Absolutely no models shows that. We are within 3 days, I highly doubt the NHC will be off that much.

[bella_may]

I think we will see West shifts coming up for now on until landfall.

What would cause a western shift, Blinhart?

Because this giant dome of High pressure and high temps over Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi won't let this thing go there. Texas and Louisiana is the only place this thing can go if it doesn't go to Mexico. Right now I say anywhere from Brownsville to New Orleans needs to keep an eye on this, until we get a front that can get all the way down to the Gulf and through to Jacksonville, the lid is on the Panhandle.

This is not true

[NDG]

Notice the trend towards slightly stronger ridging to the north of the system while is south of the FL Panhandle by the latest GFS, even if it gets stronger it can't go inland over the FL Panhandle.

https://i.imgur.com/1Z9X9Me.gif

I think a stronger storm would prevent the ridge from building in over the panhandle.

Notice that the GFS now shows the MLC circulation further west as well, meaning that it forecasts it to be stronger and more stacked than previous run.
I am sure the HWRF will shift westward towards SE LA/MS and not as close to the FL Panhandle as previous runs over the next few runs based on the GFS showing stronger ridging to the north.

[DestinHurricane]

Notice the trend towards slightly stronger ridging to the north of the system while is south of the FL Panhandle by the latest GFS, even if it gets stronger it can't go inland over the FL Panhandle.

https://i.imgur.com/1Z9X9Me.gif

I think a stronger storm would prevent the ridge from building in over the panhandle.

Notice that the GFS now shows the MLC circulation further west as well, meaning that it forecasts it to be stronger and more stacked than previous run.
I am sure the HWRF will shift westward towards SE LA/MS and not as close to the FL Panhandle as previous runs over the next few runs based on the GFS showing stronger ridging to the north.

Not sure what you mean there. GFS shifted east. Stronger will mean more east.

[Ivanhater]

00Z Canadian into Mobile as well

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

[Blinhart]

What would cause a western shift, Blinhart?

Because this giant dome of High pressure and high temps over Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi won't let this thing go there. Texas and Louisiana is the only place this thing can go if it doesn't go to Mexico. Right now I say anywhere from Brownsville to New Orleans needs to keep an eye on this, until we get a front that can get all the way down to the Gulf and through to Jacksonville, the lid is on the Panhandle.

This is not true

I have the disclaimer on my posts, stating I'm not an official met and to take what I say with a grain of salt. However this is what I see and know what I have seen in the past.

[NDG]

Right. Again, the gfs shifted much further east and caused the TVCN to skew south. If anything does move further west it is likely to be highly sheared

It still makes landfall in lower SE LA before somewhat stalling and then making a cyclonic loop towards the LA/MS border, prior to that hook it is identical to its previous runs if anything a little faster westward towards SE LA.

[DestinHurricane]

Right. Again, the gfs shifted much further east and caused the TVCN to skew south. If anything does move further west it is likely to be highly sheared

It still makes landfall in lower SE LA before somewhat stalling and then making a cyclonic loop towards the LA/MS border, prior to that hook it is identical to its previous runs if anything a little faster westward towards SE LA.

18Z had a very weak low or open wave coming in near Houma. This run is farther NE and stronger but still weak. If it is stronger these solutions are likely too far west.

[Blinhart]

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/ima ... 19_ens.gif

If you look at the grey ensembles you will see most of them stay South and West of the main ones