ATL: TEDDY - Advisories

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 PM AST Fri Sep 18 2020

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA AS MAJOR HURRICANE
TEDDY CONTINUES TO HEAD NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...LARGE SWELLS ARE SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 57.0W
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 795 MI...1275 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.


For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 23.1 North, longitude 57.0 West. Teddy is moving
toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion
is expected to continue for the next couple of days, followed by a
turn toward the north by early next week. On the forecast track,
Teddy will be approaching Bermuda late Sunday or Monday.

NOAA and U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported
that the maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 125 mph (205
km/h) with higher gusts. Teddy is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in strength
are expected through Saturday, and a weakening trend is forecast to
begin late this weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles
(370 km).

The minimum central pressure measured by the aircraft is 951 mb
(28.08 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions could begin to affect Bermuda and
the nearby waters by Sunday afternoon. These conditions may linger
throughout most of the day Monday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser
Antilles, the northeastern coast of South America, the Greater
Antilles, and the Bahamas, and will spread to Bermuda and the east
coast of the United States by Saturday. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto


Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 PM AST Fri Sep 18 2020

Both NOAA and U.S. Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been
investigating Teddy since this morning. The highest flight level
wind measured by the aircraft was 119 kt at 750 mb, which reduces to
around 101 kt at the surface. The latest central measured by the
aircraft is up 4 mb from the previous advisory, indicating only some
slight weakening. Earlier microwave images indicated that an eyewall
replacement cycle had been taking place and some drier air had
intruded into the southern portion of the circulation, leaving a
partial break in the eyewall. This may explain the reason why the
aircraft have not been finding winds as strong as they did
previously, and in fact found a double wind maxima in the northern
portion of the circulation. These eyewall replacement cycles are
common in intense tropical cyclones, and oftentimes the systems
recover within 12-24 h as long as the environmental conditions
support it. Over the past hour or so, the ring of deep convection
has appeared less broken and is beginning to expand in size, which
could be an indication that the hurricane is recovering from the
eyewall replacement. Based on the possibility of some undersampling
by the aircraft, the increase of only 4 mb in central pressure, and
the latest convective trends, the initial intensity is being lowered
only slightly to 110 kt.

Teddy continues its long trek northwestward, now at 12 kt. The
hurricane is expected to remain on that general course during the
next couple of days as it moves on the southwestern periphery of a
mid-level ridge. By the end of the weekend, when Teddy will likely
be approaching Bermuda, a turn to the north or north-northeast is
forecast to occur as a mid- to upper-level trough moves off the
northeastern U.S. coast. Early next week, the trough is expected to
cut off, causing Teddy to turn slightly to the left and approach
Nova Scotia in about 4 days. The models continue to be in good
agreement on this scenario, and only small adjustments were made to
the previous forecast track.

The environment around Teddy will be conducive for maintaining an
intense hurricane for the next 24 h or so, as the ocean
temperatures will remain warm with low vertical wind shear and a
fairly moist atmosphere. After 24 h, the hurricane is forecast to
cross cooler waters churned up by Paulette last week. This should
cause a slow weakening trend to begin. By Monday night, vertical
wind shear is expected to drastically increase ahead of an
approaching mid-latitude trough. This should not only weaken
Teddy, but begin its transition to a large extratropical cyclone,
and that transition should be completed around day 4 of the forecast
period. The latest NHC intensity forecast is near or a little above
HCCA and IVCN through 24 h, and then trends toward the SHIPS
intensity guidance thereafter.

Teddy is producing a large area of high seas. The latest maximum
seas estimated by TAFB near the core of the hurricane are near 45
feet. Swells from Teddy are spreading far from the center, see Key
Messages below.

Key Messages:

1. While the center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda
late Sunday or Monday, there is still a risk of strong winds, storm
surge, and heavy rainfall on the island, and a Tropical Storm Watch
is in effect.

2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical
cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada early
next week, where there is an increasing risk of direct impacts from
wind, rain, and storm surge. Residents there should closely monitor
the progress of Teddy and updates to the forecast through the
weekend.

3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions
of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 23.1N 57.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 24.5N 58.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 26.5N 59.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 28.1N 61.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 29.7N 62.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 21/0600Z 31.8N 62.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 21/1800Z 35.6N 61.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 22/1800Z 43.2N 62.7W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 23/1800Z 48.5N 59.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Latto

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 18 2020

...MAJOR HURRICANE TEDDY CONTINUING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...
...LARGE SWELLS ARE SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 57.4W
ABOUT 730 MI...1170 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 57.4 West. Teddy is moving
toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue for the day or so, followed by a
turn toward the north late this weekend. On the forecast track,
Teddy will be approaching Bermuda late Sunday or early Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Teddy is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are
likely through Saturday, with a weakening trend forecast to
begin on Sunday.

Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions could begin to affect Bermuda and
the nearby waters by Sunday afternoon. These conditions may linger
throughout most of the day Monday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser
Antilles, the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas, and will spread to
Bermuda and the east coast of the United States by Saturday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 18 2020

Teddy continues to have an impressive appearance on satellite
images with a fairly symmetrical Central Dense Overcast, although
recent images show some warming of the cloud tops over the
southeastern part of the circulation. Upper-level outflow is
well-defined over the northern semicircle of the hurricane and
not as strong to the south. Earlier microwave images showed a
concentric eyewall structure and it appears that the hurricane has
re-intensified slightly over the past several hours. The current
intensity estimate is set at 115 kt which is a blend of subjective
and objective Dvorak estimates. Some additional fluctuations in
strength as a result of eyewall replacements could occur through
Saturday. On Sunday and beyond, a less conducive oceanic and
atmospheric environment should lead to slow weakening. However,
Teddy should remain a powerful hurricane for the next several days.
The numerical guidance shows that the circulation will become even
larger during the forecast period due to Teddy combined with a
high pressure area coming behind a cold front over the eastern
United States. Teddy is expected to make the transition to an
extratropical cyclone when it moves into Atlantic Canada.

The hurricane continues its northwestward trek and is moving around
325/11 kt. Teddy should move around the western side of a
subtropical high pressure system for the next day or so. Then, the
cyclone should turn northward with an increase in forward speed as
it approaches a strong mid-latitude trough cutting off into a low
as it moves off the northeast U.S. coast in 2-3 days. The track
of the system could bend a bit the left as it interacts with the
trough/low while approaching Nova Scotia. Around the end of the
forecast period, the post-tropical cyclone should turn
northeastward as it moves along the eastern side of a mid-level
trough. The official track forecast is close to the corrected model
consensus.

Teddy is producing seas to 48 feet and an extensive area of large
waves and swells which are impacting much of the western Atlantic
basin. See the Key Messages below.


Key Messages:

1. While the center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda
late Sunday or Monday, there is still a risk of strong winds, storm
surge, and heavy rainfall on the island, and a Tropical Storm Watch
is in effect.

2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical
cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada early
next week, where there is an increasing risk of direct impacts from
wind, rain, and storm surge. Residents there should closely monitor
the progress of Teddy and updates to the forecast through the
weekend.

3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions
of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 24.0N 57.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 25.5N 58.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 27.3N 60.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 29.0N 61.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 30.8N 62.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 21/1200Z 33.5N 61.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 22/0000Z 37.7N 61.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 23/0000Z 45.5N 62.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 24/0000Z 50.5N 56.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA AND NEARBY WATERS...
...LARGE SWELLS THAT CAN CAUSE RIP CURRENTS WILL AFFECT MOST
WESTERN ATLANTIC COASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.9N 58.2W
ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area, generally within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 24.9 North, longitude 58.2 West. Teddy is moving
toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue today. A turn toward the north is likely on
Sunday, followed by a continued northward motion into early next
week. On the forecast track, Teddy will approach Bermuda on Sunday
and move near or east of the island late Sunday and early Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely today. A more
pronounced decrease in Teddy's maximum winds is forecast to begin on
Sunday, but the wind field of the hurricane is forecast to increase
substantially at the same time.

Hurricane-force winds currently extend outward up to 60 miles (95
km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward
up to 230 miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect
Bermuda and the nearby waters beginning Sunday afternoon or
evening. These conditions may linger through most of the day Monday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser
Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda. Swells
from Teddy will begin affecting most of the east coast of the United
States later today and will reach Atlantic Canada by early Sunday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky



Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020

Teddy's satellite presentation has fluctuated through the early
morning; most recently the eye has cooled and become poorly defined.
GMI microwave imagery at 0350 UTC showed that Teddy was most of the
way through an eyewall replacement cycle, and this is probably why
its satellite appearance has degraded a little. AT 0600 UTC, a blend
of objective and subjective intensity estimates still supported an
intensity of 115 kt, but given recent trends noted in satellite
imagery, the intensity is set at 110 kt for the advisory.

Little change was made to the NHC track or intensity forecasts, both
of which remain near the model consensus throughout the forecast
period. Teddy will likely turn northward by early Sunday as it
approaches a frontal system over the western Atlantic. This should
steer the hurricane east of Bermuda, though the hurricane's large
wind field means that the island will still likely experience some
tropical storm conditions begining Sunday afternoon or evening and
continuing well into Monday. Fluctuations in intensity are likely
through this period, but these fluctuations will have no impact on
the overall size of Teddy's wind field, which is forecast to
increase markedly, especially once it begins extratropical
transition (ET).

The ET process could begin as soon as Monday, and based on GFS and
ECMWF model fields, it should be complete in a little more than 72
h. A rapid decrease in Teddy's max winds is expected after it
becomes post-tropical, but the cyclone's wind field could actually
expand further. The NHC forecast implies a due northward motion
until the center of Teddy moves near Nova Scotia in about 4 days,
but the cyclone's interaction with a cut-off low and a building
ridge to the east of the cyclone could deflect it a little to the
left between 72 and 96 h. A turn toward the northeast is expected by
the end of the forecast as Teddy interacts with another mid-latitude
trough approaching from the northwest.

Teddy an extensive area of large waves and swells which are
impacting much of the western Atlantic basin. See the Key Messages
below.


Key Messages:

1. While the center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda
late Sunday or Monday, Tropical Storm conditions are still likely
for the island and its nearby waters beginning Sunday afternoon or
evening. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.

2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical
cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada early
next week, where there is an increasing risk of direct impacts from
wind, rain, and storm surge. Residents there should closely monitor
the progress of Teddy and updates to the forecast through the
weekend.

3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions
of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 24.9N 58.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 26.3N 59.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 28.0N 61.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 29.5N 62.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 21/0600Z 31.6N 61.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 21/1800Z 35.2N 61.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 22/0600Z 39.2N 61.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 23/0600Z 45.5N 61.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 24/0600Z 51.5N 53.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020

...HURRICANE TEDDY EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO
BERMUDA BY SUNDAY EVENING...
...LARGE SWELLS THAT CAN CAUSE RIP CURRENTS WILL AFFECT MOST
WESTERN ATLANTIC COASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.0N 59.0W
ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area, generally within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 26.0 North, longitude 59.0 West. Teddy is moving
toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion
is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north or
north-northeast is expected on Sunday, followed by a northward
motion into early next week. On the forecast track, Teddy will
approach Bermuda on Sunday and the center will pass just east of the
island late Sunday and early Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Teddy is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slow weakening is expected over the next
couple of days. A more pronounced decrease in Teddy's maximum winds
is forecast to begin early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles
(370 km). The wind field of the hurricane is forecast to increase
substantially starting on Sunday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda
beginning Sunday afternoon or evening and could linger through most
of the day Monday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser
Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east
coast of the United States. Swells from Teddy should reach Atlantic
Canada by early Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto



Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020

The overall appearance of Teddy has degraded slightly since early
this morning, with the eye no longer readily apparent in satellite
imagery. However, microwave data a few hours ago showed that a well-
defined outer eyewall exists with a decaying partial inner eyewall.
This indicates that an eyewall replacement cycle is just about
complete. The objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates
generally agree on an intensity of 98-102 kt, but out of respect for
the completing eyewall replacement cycle the initial intensity is
set to a slightly more generous 105 kt.

Teddy will be moving over slightly cooler waters caused by upwelling
from Paulette over the next day or so and this should cause the
hurricane to slowly weaken. However, in about 36 h the cyclone's
wind field is forecast to begin expanding as it interacts with an
approaching frontal system. Around 48-60 h, vertical wind shear is
expected to dramatically increase as Teddy becomes embedded in the
flow around a sharp mid-latitude upper-level trough. The interaction
of the cyclone with both the front and trough should cause Teddy to
begin an extratropical transition, with the post-tropical cyclone
quickly weakening once the transition is complete. The SHIPS
guidance and global model simulated satellite imagery tend to agree
that the extratropical transition should be completed just after 72
h. The latest NHC intensity forecast was nudged downward slightly
mainly due to the change in the initial intensity, and is close to
the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA.

The hurricane continues its northwestward movement, now at 12 kt.
The track forecast for Teddy remains essentially unchanged and is in
the middle of tightly clustered guidance. Teddy is expected to turn
northward to north-northeastward Sunday morning as it approaches a
frontal system over the western Atlantic. This pattern should steer
the hurricane east of Bermuda, though the hurricane's large wind
field means that the island will still likely experience tropical
storm conditions beginning by Sunday evening and continuing through
much of Monday. A slight turn to the north then perhaps the north-
northwest should occur Monday night into Tuesday as Teddy pivots
around the upper trough. By Tuesday night, the cyclone is forecast
to turn northeastward as the upper trough to its southwest begins to
lift into the higher latitudes.

Teddy is producing an extensive area of large waves and swells
which are impacting much of the western Atlantic basin. See the
Key Messages below.

Key Messages:

1. While the center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda
late Sunday or Monday, tropical storm conditions are likely on the
island beginning Sunday afternoon or evening.

2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical
cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada early
next week, where there is an increasing risk of direct impacts from
wind, rain, and storm surge. Residents there should closely monitor
the progress of Teddy and updates to the forecast.

3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions
of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 26.0N 59.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 27.3N 60.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 28.8N 61.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 30.4N 62.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 33.1N 61.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 22/0000Z 37.1N 61.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 40.8N 61.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 23/1200Z 47.0N 59.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 24/1200Z 52.9N 51.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Latto

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 PM AST Sat Sep 19 2020

...TEDDY EXPECTED TO GROW IN SIZE EARLY NEXT WEEK...
...LARGE SWELLS THAT CAN CAUSE RIP CURRENTS WILL AFFECT MOST
WESTERN ATLANTIC COASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 60.2W
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area, generally within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 26.7 North, longitude 60.2 West. Teddy is moving
toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north or
north-northeast is expected by Sunday evening, followed by a faster
northward motion into early next week. On the forecast track, Teddy
will approach Bermuda on Sunday and the center will pass just east
of the island Monday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Teddy is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slow weakening is expected over the next
couple of days. A more pronounced decrease in Teddy's maximum winds
is forecast to begin early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles
(405 km). The wind field of the hurricane is forecast to
increase substantially starting on Sunday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda
beginning Sunday evening and could linger into Monday night.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser
Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east
coast of the United States. Swells from Teddy should reach Atlantic
Canada by early Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto



Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 PM AST Sat Sep 19 2020

The earlier eyewall replacement cycle occuring in Teddy since last
night appears to have completed. There is now a more pronounced
outer ring of convection noted in satellite and microwave imagery,
and a large ragged eye is beginning to appear in the satellite
images. The latest satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and
UW-CIMSS ADT support keeping the initial intensity at 105 kt. A
U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the hurricane later this evening.

There is no change to the forecast intensity and structure for
Teddy. The hurricane will be moving over slightly cooler waters
caused by upwelling from Paulette over the next 24h and this should
cause the hurricane to slowly weaken. However, in about 36 h as
the system passes east of Bermuda, the cyclone's wind field is
forecast to begin rapidly expanding as it interacts with an
approaching frontal system. By 48 h, vertical wind shear is expected
to dramatically increase as Teddy becomes embedded in the flow
around a sharp mid-latitude upper-level trough. The interaction of
the cyclone with both the front and trough should cause Teddy to
begin an extratropical transition, with this transition expected to
be completed by 72 h. This transition timing is in agreement with
the global models. Once this transition occurs, the post-tropical
cyclone is forecast to rapidly weaken, but is still expected to be
a powerful extratropical cyclone as it approaches Atlantic Canada
early next week. The latest NHC intensity forecast is little changed
from the previous one and is near the SHIPS and HFIP corrected
consensus HCCA.

Teddy jogged a little west of track today, but the longer term
motion is still northwestward at about 11 kt. This motion is
expected to continue through most of the day Sunday. Teddy should
then turn northward to north-northeastward late Sunday as it
approaches a frontal system over the western Atlantic. This pattern
should steer the hurricane east of Bermuda, though the hurricane's
large wind field means that the island will still likely experience
tropical storm conditions beginning by Sunday evening and continuing
into Monday evening. A slight turn to the north then perhaps the
north- northwest with a faster forward motion should occur Monday
night into Tuesday as Teddy pivots around the upper trough. By
Tuesday night, the cyclone is forecast to turn northeastward as the
upper trough to its southwest begins to lift into the higher
latitudes.

Teddy is producing an extensive area of large waves and swells
which are impacting much of the western Atlantic basin. See the
Key Messages below.

Key Messages:

1. While the center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda
late Sunday or Monday, tropical storm conditions are likely on the
island beginning Sunday evening.

2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical
cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada early
next week, where there is an increasing risk of direct impacts from
wind, rain, and storm surge. Residents there should closely monitor
the progress of Teddy and updates to the forecast.

3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions
of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 26.7N 60.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 27.9N 61.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 29.1N 62.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 30.7N 62.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 33.6N 61.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 22/0600Z 38.3N 61.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 41.9N 62.7W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 23/1800Z 47.7N 58.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 24/1800Z 55.5N 45.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Latto

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 19 2020

...POWERFUL HURRICANE TEDDY CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD...
...CAUSING RIP CURRENTS THAT WILL AFFECT MOST WESTERN ATLANTIC
COASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 61.2W
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area, generally within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 61.2 West. Teddy is moving
toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue into Sunday. A turn toward the north is
expected by Sunday night followed by a faster northward motion early
next week. On the forecast track, Teddy will approach Bermuda on
Sunday night, and the center will pass just east of the island
Monday morning.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Teddy is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. A weakening trend is expected to begin Sunday
night.

Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km). Teddy's wind field
is likely to become even larger over the next few days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda
beginning Sunday night and could linger into Monday night.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser
Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east
coast of the United States. Swells from Teddy should reach Atlantic
Canada by early Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 19 2020

Some convective cells have been developing within Teddy's large
outer eye, and it is possible that this convection is forming an
inner eyewall. In any event, observations from an Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum winds have
decreased slightly, to near 100 kt. The hurricane is expected to
remain in a low shear environment until tomorrow evening, and to
more or less maintain its intensity for 12-24 hours. Thereafter,
increasing shear associated with an upper-level trough to the west
should cause weakening. Although the shear is predicted by the
global models to become fairly strong after 48 hours, the system
has a a very large and intense circulation so only slow weakening
is expected. By 72 hours, Teddy should merge with a frontal zone to
the east of New England and become a strong extratropical cyclone.
The official intensity forecast is close to the model consensus.

The system's wind field will likely become even larger as the wind
field of Teddy interacts within a high pressure system behind a cold
front during the next few days. This could prolong the period of
strong winds over Bermuda into Monday night.

Teddy continues on a general northwestward track or about 315/11 kt.
The hurricane should move on the western side of a subtropical high
pressure area for the next day or so, and then begin to accelerate
northward ahead of a strong mid-tropospheric trough that develops
into a cutoff low off the northeast U.S. coast in a couple of days.
The interaction of Teddy with this low will likely result in a
slight leftward bend of the track around days 2-3. In 4-5 days,
post-tropical Teddy is likely to turn north-northeastward to
northeastward in the flow on the east side of a broad 500 mb trough.
The official track forecast is a blend of the simple and corrected
dynamical model consensus predictions.

The extent of 12-foot or higher seas associated with Teddy
continues to increase. See the Key Message below regarding swells
caused by the hurricane.


Key Messages:

1. While the center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda
late Sunday or Monday, tropical storm conditions are likely on the
island beginning Sunday evening.

2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical
cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada early
next week, where there is an increasing risk of direct impacts from
wind, rain, and storm surge. Residents there should closely monitor
the progress of Teddy and updates to the forecast.

3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions
of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 27.3N 61.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 28.3N 62.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 29.6N 63.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 31.6N 62.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 35.7N 61.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 22/1200Z 39.7N 62.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 42.5N 62.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 24/0000Z 49.5N 56.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 25/0000Z 57.0N 42.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 AM AST Sun Sep 20 2020

...TEDDY FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD LATER TODAY...
...SWELLS FROM TEDDY COULD GENERATE RIP CURRENTS ALONG WESTERN
ATLANTIC BEACHES FOR SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 62.0W
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area, generally within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 62.0 West. Teddy is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion
will likely continue this morning. A turn toward the north is
expected tonight and then Teddy is forecast to continue
generally northward for another couple days. On the forecast track,
Teddy will approach Bermuda on Sunday night, and the center will
pass east of the island Monday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Teddy is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is expected during the
next day or two, but Teddy is expected to remain a large and
powerful hurricane through Monday.

Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). NOAA buoy 41049, located
about 80 miles south-southwest of the center of Teddy recently
reported sustained winds of 59 mph (95 km/h) and several gusts near
65 mph (105 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda
as early as tonight and could linger into Monday night.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser
Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely
to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky



Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 AM AST Sun Sep 20 2020

The convective structure of Teddy has degraded substantially since
the last advisory, with no sign of an eye in conventional satellite
imagery. The most recent available microwave imagery from last night
suggested that Teddy still had a very well defined low to mid-level
inner-core, but this has not translated to the higher levels more
apparent at night. Intensity estimates have decreased, so the
initial intensity has been lowered slightly to 100 kt for this
advisory. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the hurricane later this morning and should
provide more information about its structure and strength.

Teddy's evolution for the next few days appears to be a tale of 3
troughs. Upper-level westerly flow associated with the first
upper-level trough, affecting the storm now, is the most likely
reason why the hurricane's structure has degraded and has taken on a
slightly sheared appearance. Teddy will begin to encounter the 2nd
trough, a deep frontal system approaching from the west, later today
and that should cause the hurricane to turn north. This interaction
should steer the center of Teddy east of Bermuda, but tropical storm
impacts from either the large hurricane, the frontal system, or both
are still likely Sunday evening through Monday night.

All indications are that Teddy will then continue generally
northward and merge with the frontal system, nearing Nova Scotia as
an extratropical cyclone early Wednesday. Teddy's maximum winds will
likely decrease sharply after it becomes post-tropical, as shown by
all the intensity guidance, but its gale and storm-force wind radii
will likely increase at the same time. The cyclone should turn
northeastward as the 3rd trough, another mid-latitude system,
approaches from the west. Teddy could be absorbed by that feature in
as soon as 120 h, though this is not explicitly shown in the
forecast at this time. The spread in the track and intensity
guidance is quite low and confidence in both aspects of the forecast
is high. There is a little more uncertainty in the wind radii
evolution, but it is clear that Teddy will produce strong winds over
a wide area of the northwest Atlantic during the next couple of
days.

The extent of 12-foot or higher seas associated with Teddy
continues to increase. See the Key Message below regarding swells
caused by the hurricane.


Key Messages:

1. The center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda late
Sunday or Monday. Tropical storm conditions are likely on the
island beginning this evening and could continue into Monday
evening.

2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical
cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada early
next week, where there is an increasing risk of direct impacts from
wind, rain, and storm surge. Residents there should closely monitor
the progress of Teddy and updates to the forecast.

3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions
of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 28.0N 62.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 28.9N 62.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 30.4N 62.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 33.3N 62.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 37.5N 62.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 22/1800Z 40.9N 63.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 23/0600Z 43.8N 62.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 24/0600Z 51.0N 54.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 25/0600Z 58.5N 41.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 PM AST Sun Sep 20 2020

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA...
...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FORECAST ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES
FOR SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 63.4W
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Canadian Hurricane Centre has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
the coast of Nova Scotia from Lower East Pubnico to Canso.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Lower East Pubnico to Canso Nova Scotia

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the
progress of Teddy.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 63.4 West. Teddy is moving
toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the
north is expected tonight, and Teddy is then forecast to continue
generally northward for another couple days. On the forecast track,
Teddy will approach Bermuda tonight, and the center should pass east
of the island Monday morning. Teddy is forecast to be approaching
Nova Scotia late Tuesday or Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast, and the system is
expected to remain a large and powerful hurricane through Tuesday,
then become a strong post-tropical cyclone on Wednesday.

Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda
tonight and could continue into Monday night. Tropical storm
conditions could begin over Nova Scotia on Tuesday afternoon.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the
Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely
to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: From Tuesday through Thursday, Teddy is expected to
produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with
isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic
Canada.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 PM AST Sun Sep 20 2020

Satellite images show that Teddy is continuing to maintain a
central core, albeit eroded on the western side due to shear and
dry air. However, the latest microwave data show a more distinct
eye than conventional data would indicate, along with an open
eyewall. The initial intensity is held at 90 kt, pending Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data this evening.

The hurricane has turned north-northwestward and is likely to
turn northward tonight and north-northeastward tomorrow due to an
approaching large mid-latitude trough. By early Tuesday, the
cyclone should turn back to the north-northwest as it rotates
around the same trough, then turn northeastward early Wednesday
ahead of yet another trough moving into from eastern Canada.
Track model guidance remains in very good agreement, and only a
slight westward adjustment was made to the forecast.

The global models are in excellent agreement on Teddy transitioning
into a large non-tropical low between Bermuda and Nova Scotia in
about 2 days. In many respects, the upcoming trough interaction
reminds me of an extratropical transition like Sandy 2012,
thankfully happening at a good distance from land, with the
GFS/ECMWF models showing pressures into the 940s tomorrow, a slight
increase in maximum winds, and a large increase in the size of the
tropical-storm-force winds. Beyond Tuesday, the hurricane should
become post-tropical near or south of Nova Scotia and be absorbed by
a larger extratropical low after day 4 to the northeast of
Newfoundland. Little change was made to the official forecast,
other than show a small increase tomorrow as the peak extratropical
forcing deepens the cyclone. It is still worth noting every model
has a rather large and strong post-tropical cyclone near Nova Scotia
in 2-3 days, with hazards that will extend a very long way from the
center.

Extremely dangerous surf conditions with 20-ft waves have been
reported on the south shore of Bermuda, and officials are
encouraging residents to avoid going into or near the water.

Key Messages:

1. The center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda on
Monday. Tropical storm conditions are likely on the island beginning
this evening and could continue into Monday evening.

2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical
cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada
late Tuesday through Thursday, where there is an increasing risk of
direct impacts from wind, rain, and storm surge. A Tropical Storm
Watch has been issued for portions of Nova Scotia, and heavy rain is
also expected across sections of Atlantic Canada.

3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of
Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the
east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next
few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 29.0N 63.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 30.1N 63.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 32.8N 62.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 36.9N 63.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 40.0N 64.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 23/0600Z 42.7N 63.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 23/1800Z 46.0N 61.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 24/1800Z 54.5N 50.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 20 2020

...TEDDY TURNING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...
...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FORECAST ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES
FOR SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 63.6W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Lower East Pubnico to Canso Nova Scotia

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the
progress of Teddy.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 63.6 West. Teddy is moving
toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and a northward
turn is expected Monday. This general motion should continue
through Tuesday evening. Teddy is approaching Bermuda from the
southeast, and the center should pass east of the island Monday
morning. Teddy is forecast to be approaching Nova Scotia late
Tuesday or early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible Monday night while
Teddy begins to interact with an approaching frontal system.
Although gradual weakening is forecast to begin mid-week, the
cyclone is expected to remain a large and powerful hurricane
Tuesday, then become a strong post-tropical cyclone by Wednesday
morning.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230
miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda
overnight and could continue into Monday night. Tropical storm
conditions could begin over Nova Scotia on Tuesday afternoon.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the
Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely
to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: From Tuesday through Thursday, Teddy is expected to
produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with
isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic
Canada.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts



Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 20 2020

Teddy's satellite presentation has changed little during the
past several hours albeit some warming of the eye. The
53rd Air Force Reserve hurricane hunters recorded a central
pressure this evening of 963 mb, unchanged from the previous
mission, and the Dvorak subjective intensity estimates haven't
changed either. Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 90 kt
for this advisory.

There is a chance, within the next 24 hours, that Teddy could
strengthen a bit due to dynamic forcing as a result of the
approaching baroclinic zone moving off of the northeast coast of
the United States. In Fact, the HCCA intensity model shows a peak
of 95 kt at the 24 hour period. By Tuesday afternoon, however,
increasing southwesterly shear associated with the rapidly
approaching mid-latitude major shortwave trough, from the northwest,
should induce weakening. Because Teddy is a very large and strong
tropical cyclone, only gradual weakening is predicted. By mid
period, the large-scale models agree that Teddy will merge with the
aforementioned trough and associated frontal zone and complete its
extratropical cyclone transition south of Nova Scotia Tuesday
evening. Teddy is still forecast to be a very large and powerful
extratropical cyclone as it approaches, Nova Scotia at that time.
Wind, rain, surf and storm surge hazards are expected to spread over
an extensive portion of Atlantic Canada mid-week.

The forecast wind radii at the 36 hour period and beyond, are based
on the RVCN Wind Radii Consensus model that consists of a
bias-corrected average of the global and regional models.

The initial motion is estimated to be north-northwestward, or 5 kt.
The hurricane is likely to turn northward Monday morning and
continue in this general motion through Wednesday morning. Around
the 60 hour period, a turn north-northeastward is forecast ahead of
yet another mid-latitude pulse moving into eastern Canada. No
significant adjustments were made to the NHC track forecast and
it lies in between the surprisingly tightly clustered model
guidance.

Extremely dangerous surf conditions with 20-ft waves have been
reported on the south shore of Bermuda, and officials are
encouraging residents to avoid going into or near the water.

Key Messages:

1. The center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda on
Monday. Tropical storm conditions are likely on the island beginning
overnight and could continue into Monday evening.

2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical
cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada
late Tuesday through Thursday, where there is an increasing risk of
direct impacts from wind, rain, and storm surge. A Tropical Storm
Watch is in effect for portions of Nova Scotia, and heavy
rainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected with Teddy between
Tuesday and Thursday after it becomes a strong post-tropical
cyclone.

3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of
Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the
east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next
few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 29.4N 63.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 30.9N 63.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 34.8N 62.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 38.5N 63.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 41.3N 64.2W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 23/1200Z 44.5N 62.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 24/0000Z 48.6N 59.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 25/0000Z 57.4N 47.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 26/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 AM AST Mon Sep 21 2020

...LARGE HURRICANE TEDDY NOW HEADING NORTH...
...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FORECAST ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES
FOR SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.3N 63.2W
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Lower East Pubnico to Main-a-Dieu Nova Scotia

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the
progress of Teddy.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 30.3 North, longitude 63.2 West. Teddy is moving
toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). Although some fluctuations in
heading are likely, the hurricane is expected to move generally
northward through Tuesday evening, followed by a turn toward the
northeast on Wednesday. The center of Teddy will pass east of
Bermuda today and then approach Nova Scotia late Tuesday or early
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next day
or so. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin mid-week, but the
cyclone is expected to remain a large and powerful hurricane
Tuesday, then become a strong post-tropical cyclone when it nears
Nova Scotia by Wednesday morning.

Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda
into Monday night. Tropical storm conditions could begin over Nova
Scotia on Tuesday afternoon.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the
Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely
to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: From Tuesday through Thursday, Teddy is expected to
produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with
isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic
Canada.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 AM AST Mon Sep 21 2020

Where Teddy once had a ragged eye has now become a dry slot, an
indication that its eyewall is becoming less defined. Some
southwesterly shear and the fact that Teddy is beginning to move
over the cold wake of former Hurricane Paulette are probably
contributing to the degradation of Teddy's structure. Based on this
trend, the intensity estimate is lowered slightly to 85 kt. An Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
Teddy later this morning and will give a better assessment of the
hurricane's winds. For now, little change was made to the NHC track
or intensity forecasts.

Teddy is beginning to interact with a large deep layer trough and
frontal system that will play a big role in its evolution during
the next couple of days. For the remainder of today, Teddy should
remain fairly distinct from the front, moving east and northeast of
Bermuda. As it begins to merge with that system on Tuesday, a
slight deflection toward the north-northwest is likely, and it is
possible Teddy could quickly become post-tropical if it merges with
the front at that time. The most recent ECMWF and GFS runs
suggest that Teddy will maintain a warm core a little longer than
than that as it moves over the Gulf Stream. Regardless of its exact
classification, once Teddy moves north of the Gulf Stream and over
much cooler waters, it is forecast to weaken below hurricane
strength and become extratropical. Even with a decrease in its
highest winds, Teddy will likely be producing a large area of
tropical-storm-force winds when it approaches Atlantic Canada in a
couple of days. After moving over Atlantic Canada, Teddy is expected
to accelerate northeastward ahead of, and then merge with,
another mid-latitude trough approaching from the northwest.

Teddy's size will likely increase substantially during the next
couple of days as it moves northward and interacts with the
aforementioned frontal system. Gale force winds are likely along
portions of the near shore waters of the northeast U.S. Please see
products from your local office for more information about
marine hazards.

Extremely dangerous surf conditions with 20-ft waves have been
reported on the south shore of Bermuda, and officials are
encouraging residents to avoid going into or near the water.

Key Messages:

1. The center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda today.
Wind gusts near tropical-storm-force have been reported on
the island and tropical storm conditions could continue into Monday
evening.

2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical
cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada
late Tuesday through Thursday, where there is an increasing risk of
direct impacts from wind, rain, and storm surge. A Tropical Storm
Watch is in effect for portions of Nova Scotia, and heavy
rainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected with Teddy between
Tuesday and Thursday after it becomes a strong post-tropical
cyclone.

3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of
Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the
east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next
few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 30.3N 63.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 32.6N 62.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 36.7N 62.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 39.7N 63.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 42.6N 63.4W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 23/1800Z 46.2N 61.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 24/0600Z 50.0N 57.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 21 2020

...TEDDY'S HUGE WAVE FIELD EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES FOR A FEW MORE DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.1N 62.7W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 935 MI...1500 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Lower East Pubnico to Main-a-Dieu Nova Scotia

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the
progress of Teddy. Additional watches and/or warnings could be
required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 31.1 North, longitude 62.7 West. Teddy is moving
toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the north
overnight and north-northwest on Tuesday. Teddy should turn to the
north-northeast as it approaches Nova Scotia on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Teddy is expected to gain strength overnight, but weaken
steadily by Wednesday and become a strong post-tropical cyclone.

Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently reported a
minimum central pressure of 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda
today. Tropical storm conditions could begin over Nova Scotia on
Tuesday afternoon in the watch area.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the
Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: From Tuesday through Thursday, Teddy is expected to
produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with
isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic
Canada.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 21 2020

Teddy has weakened some since yesterday. While the maximum 700-mb
winds from the latest Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
mission were 93 kt, the peak SFMR values were only 68 kt. A blend of
these data with some undersampling due to the large size of Teddy
gives an initial wind speed of 80 kt.

The hurricane is beginning to accelerate to the north-northeast as
the long-awaited mid-latitude trough begins to pick up the cyclone.
All of the guidance is in very good agreement that Teddy will
benefit from this interaction, growing in both size and maximum
winds due to this trough and warmer waters in the Gulf Stream.
Thus, the hurricane should intensify overnight, and the new
intensity forecast is close to the latest GFS model. Afterward,
the baroclinic energy source is exhausted, and Teddy should move
north of the Gulf Stream by Wednesday, helping to complete its
post-tropical transition. The cyclone should weaken while it
accelerates to the north-northeast across eastern Nova Scotia, the
Gulf of St. Lawrence, and Newfoundland before dissipating in 3-4
days. No significant changes were made to the track forecast.

Teddy's size will likely increase substantially during the next
couple of days as it moves northward and interacts with the
aforementioned frontal system. Gale force winds are likely along
portions of the near shore waters of the northeast U.S. Please see
products from your local office for more information about marine
hazards.

Key Messages:

1. The center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda today.
Wind gusts of tropical-storm-force have been reported on the
island, and tropical storm conditions could continue today.

2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical
cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada
late Tuesday through Thursday, where there is an increasing risk of
direct impacts from wind, rain, and storm surge. A Tropical Storm
Watch is in effect for portions of Nova Scotia, and heavy
rainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected with Teddy between
Tuesday and Thursday after it becomes a strong post-tropical
cyclone.

3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of
Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the
east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next
few days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 31.1N 62.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 34.4N 62.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 38.2N 63.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 40.7N 64.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 43.7N 63.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 24/0000Z 47.5N 60.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 24/1200Z 51.5N 55.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 PM AST Mon Sep 21 2020

...TEDDY ABOUT TO GET LARGER AND STRONGER NORTH OF BERMUDA...
...LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC
BEACHES FOR A FEW MORE DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.2N 62.0W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 790 MI...1275 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South coast of Nova Scotia from Digby to Meat Cove

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Meat Cove to Tidnish
* North of Digby to Fort Lawrence
* Magdalen Islands
* Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the
progress of Teddy. Additional watches and/or warnings could be
required later tonight or on Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 33.2 North, longitude 62.0 West. Teddy is moving
toward the north near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this motion is
expected tonight followed by a turn to the north-northwest on
Tuesday. Teddy should turn to the north-northeast and move over
eastern Nova Scotia on Wednesday then over the Gulf of St.
Lawrence late Wednesday into Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Teddy is expected to gain strength overnight, but weaken
steadily by Wednesday and become a strong post-tropical cyclone
before reaching Nova Scotia.

Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in
the warning area by Tuesday afternoon. Tropical-storm-conditions
could begin in the watch areas late Tuesday or early Wednesday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the
Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: From Tuesday through Thursday, Teddy is expected to
produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with
isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic
Canada.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall in Nova Scotia. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by very large and destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake



Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 PM AST Mon Sep 21 2020

Teddy is gradually losing tropical characteristics with weaker deep
convection near the center and more convective asymmetry. The
initial wind speed is kept at 80 kt, assuming any decrease in
organization has been offset by the doubling of the forward speed
since the last advisory. Note that Dvorak estimates are likely to
underestimate the true maximum winds in this extratropical
transition situation.

The hurricane is now moving quickly northward as a mid-latitude
trough picks up the cyclone. All of the guidance show Teddy
strengthening overnight due to a baroclinic energy infusion from
this trough and increased instability from the warmer waters of the
Gulf Stream/North Atlantic. Afterward, Teddy should lose its
baroclinic forcing and move over cooler water late Tuesday, causing
weakening while it accelerates to the north-northeast across
eastern Nova Scotia, the Gulf of St. Lawrence and Newfoundland
before dissipating in 3-4 days. No significant changes were made to
the track forecast except for a westward shift beyond 48 hours.
While there is some uncertainty about the exact status of Teddy near
Nova Scotia, since much of the model guidance keeps the cyclone
with a warm core and some convection, it doesn't change the hazards
much with significant chances of high winds, heavy rain, storm
surge and destructive waves for the south coast of Nova Scotia.

Teddy's size will likely double during the next couple of days as
it moves northward and interacts with the aforementioned trough.
Gale-force winds are likely along portions of the near shore waters
of the northeast United States. Please see products from your local
office for more information about marine hazards, including
extremely dangerous rip currents expected over much of the western
Atlantic beaches.

Key Messages:

1. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical
cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada
late Tuesday through Thursday, where direct impacts from wind, rain,
and storm surge are expected. Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings
are in effect for portions of Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and
Newfoundland.

2. Very large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect
portions of Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the
Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada
during the next few days. These swells are expected to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

3. Heavy rainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected with Teddy
between Tuesday and Thursday after it becomes a strong post-tropical
cyclone.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 33.2N 62.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 36.5N 62.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 39.5N 63.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 42.2N 63.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 46.5N 61.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 24/0600Z 50.5N 58.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 24/1800Z 54.5N 53.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 21 2020

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND TEDDY STRONGER...
...LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS LIKELY ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC
BEACHES FOR SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.6N 61.5W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM NE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South coast of Nova Scotia from Digby to Meat Cove

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Meat Cove to Tidnish
* North of Digby to Fort Lawrence
* Magdalen Islands
* Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland
* Prince Edward Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the
progress of Teddy. Additional watches and/or warnings could be
required on Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 35.6 North, longitude 61.5 West. Teddy is moving
toward the north near 25 mph (41 km/h), and this motion is expected
overnight followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Tuesday.
Teddy should turn toward the north-northeast and move over eastern
Nova Scotia on Wednesday then over the Gulf of St. Lawrence late
Wednesday into Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Teddy could gain a little more strength
overnight, but should weaken steadily by Wednesday and become a
strong post-tropical cyclone near Nova Scotia.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275
miles (445 km).

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently reported
a minimum central pressure of 956 mb (28.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in
the warning area by Tuesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions
could begin in the watch areas late Tuesday or early Wednesday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the
Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: From Tuesday through Thursday, Teddy is expected to
produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with
isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic
Canada.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall in Nova Scotia. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by very large and destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts



Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 21 2020

Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter found Teddy a little stronger
this evening. Flight level peak wind was 111 kt in the east
quadrant and the highest observed SFMR wind was 69 kt. A blend of
these data yields an initial intensity of 85 kt for this advisory.

Teddy is accelerating toward the north in response to a mid- to
upper tropospheric mid-latitude trough approaching from the
northwest. Dynamic forcing produced by the aforementioned
baroclinic system and warm (27-28C) waters associated with the Gulf
Stream could induce a short period of strengthening during the
next few hours, or so. Through the remaining portion of the
forecast period, Teddy will traverse cooler oceanic temperatures
north of the Gulf Stream and lose its baroclinic support inducing a
gradual weakening trend as the post-tropical cyclone quickly moves
over eastern Nova Scotia, the Gulf of St. Lawrence and Newfoundland.
After that time, Teddy should become absorbed by a larger
non-tropical, high latitude low pressure system. There still
remains much uncertainty as to whether or not Teddy will complete
its extratropical transition prior to reaching Nova Scotia. The
global models show the cyclone merged or embedded in the baroclinic
zone, but the associated simulated infrared presentation shows
Teddy maintaining a rather small warm, inner core. Regardless of
it classification during that time, high winds, heavy rain, storm
surge and destructive waves are still predicted for the south coast
of Nova Scotia.

Teddy's horizontal wind profile is forecast to nearly double during
the next couple of days as it moves northward and interacts with
the aforementioned baroclinic system. Gale-force winds are likely
along portions of the near shore waters of the northeast United
States. The forecast wind radii at the 24 hour period and beyond
are based on the RVCN Wind Radii Consensus model that consists of a
bias-corrected average of the global and regional models.

Please see products from your local office for more
information about marine hazards, including extremely dangerous rip
currents expected over much of the western Atlantic beaches.

Key Messages:

1. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical
cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada
late Tuesday through Thursday, where direct impacts from wind, rain,
and storm surge are expected. Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings
are in effect for portions of Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and
Newfoundland.

2. Very large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect
portions of Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the
Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada
during the next few days. These swells are expected to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

3. Heavy rainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected with Teddy
between Tuesday and Thursday after it becomes a strong post-tropical
cyclone.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 35.6N 61.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 38.4N 62.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 41.1N 63.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 44.6N 61.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 49.0N 58.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 24/1200Z 52.8N 54.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 25/0000Z 58.1N 51.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 22 2020

...TEDDY EXPECTED TO BRING DESTRUCTIVE WAVES, HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG WINDS TO PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.6N 63.7W
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South coast of Nova Scotia from Digby to Meat Cove

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Meat Cove to Tidnish Nova Scotia
* North of Digby to Fort Lawrence Nova Scotia
* Magdalen Islands Quebec
* Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland
* Prince Edward Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the
progress of Teddy. Additional watches and/or warnings could be
required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 39.6 North,
longitude 63.7 West. Teddy is moving toward the north-northwest near
16 mph (26 km/h), and a turn toward the north-northeast is expected
by early Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center will move
over eastern Nova Scotia on Wednesday, and then near or over
Newfoundland by Wednesday night and east of Labrador on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Although some weakening is likely later today and Wednesday,
Teddy should be a strong post-tropical cyclone when it moves near
and over Nova Scotia.

Teddy is an extremely large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches)
based on NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall in Nova Scotia. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by very large and destructive waves.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the
Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in
the warning area by this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions
could begin in the watch areas late today or early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals
of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 22 2020

Teddy is in the late stages of extratropical transition. The
hurricane has taken on a large comma shape in satellite images, with
a huge dry-air intrusion aloft near the center and a cold front on
the western side of the cyclone. While it is tempting to call it an
extratropical now, temperature data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that Teddy has maintained a significant warm
core, and the strongest winds on the southwestern side appear to be
more related to the cyclone and not the front. Lastly, deep
convection is trying to re-develop near the center, another
indication that the transition is not yet done. Thus Teddy will
remain a hurricane on this advisory. The initial wind speed is set
to 90 kt, a blend of the 122-kt flight-level winds, 75-kt SFMR
values, and global model analyses since much of this large hurricane
is not being sampled.

Teddy should transition into a post-tropical cyclone by the time it
reaches Nova Scotia and steadily weaken as it moves over the cooler
waters north of the Gulf Stream. The cyclone should turn northward
today and north-northeastward tomorrow ahead of the next trough in
the mid-latitudes. This will take Post-Tropical Teddy over Nova
Scotia and near Newfoundland during the next couple of days, with
the cyclone likely being absorbed into a larger extratropical
cyclone west of Greenland in 2-3 days. There are no significant
changes to report, except to show a sooner dissipation, which is
consistent with the latest global models solutions.

The hurricane-force and tropical-storm-force winds fields, plus
12-ft seas area, from Teddy have just about doubled overnight, so it
is important to note that hazards will extend much farther than
normal from the center of this hurricane. The NOAA Hurricane Hunter
reported hurricane-force surface winds 120 n mi northwest of the
center, and Canadian buoy 44150 has recently reported 34-ft
significant wave heights, with the buoy still about 180 n mi from
the center.

Key Messages:

1. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical
cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada
late today through Thursday. The most significant hazard expected
from Teddy is large destructive waves forecast along the southern
coast of Nova Scotia through Wednesday.

2. Very large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect
portions of Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the
Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada
during the next few days. These swells are expected to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

3. Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect for portions
of Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland, and heavy
rainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected with Teddy through
Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 39.6N 63.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 41.8N 64.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 44.8N 62.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 24/0000Z 48.8N 59.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 24/1200Z 54.0N 54.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 PM AST Tue Sep 22 2020

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PARTS OF NEWFOUNDLAND...
...GINORMOUS TEDDY TO BRING DESTRUCTIVE WAVES, HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG WINDS TO PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.1N 64.2W
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 510 MI...825 KM SSW OF PORT AUX BASQUES NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Canadian Hurricane Centre has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
from Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South coast of Nova Scotia from Digby to Meat Cove
* Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Meat Cove to Tidnish Nova Scotia
* North of Digby to Fort Lawrence Nova Scotia
* Magdalen Islands Quebec
* Prince Edward Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the
progress of Teddy. Additional watches and/or warnings could be
required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 41.1 North, longitude 64.2 West. Teddy is moving
toward the north near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a turn toward the
north-northeast is expected by early Wednesday. On the forecast
track, the center will move over eastern Nova Scotia on Wednesday,
and then near or over Newfoundland by Wednesday night, and be east
of Labrador on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Although some weakening is likely tonight and Wednesday,
Teddy should be a strong post-tropical cyclone when it moves near
and over Nova Scotia.

Teddy is an extremely large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 540 miles (870 km).
Buoy 44150, located about 90 n mi north of the center, recently
reported a significant wave height of 42 ft (13 m).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall in Nova Scotia. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by very large and destructive waves.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the
Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Nova Scotia
warning area now. Tropical storm conditions could begin in the
watch areas tonight or early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions
are expected to begin in the Newfoundland warning area on Wednesday
afternoon.

RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals
of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 PM AST Tue Sep 22 2020

Teddy is a very impressive cyclone on satellite images this
afternoon, even from full-disk images. The hurricane's circulation
is over 1000 miles wide, with an enormous distinct comma shape and
frontal features especially in the eastern semicircle. As far as
what to call the system convection has actually deepened near the
center during the past several hours, and an AMSR pass around 1700
UTC showed that the system still had a low-level eye feature. For
that reason and for simplicity's sake, the system will remain a
hurricane on this advisory, although it is obviously a hybrid low
with many characteristics of a non-tropical cyclone. The initial
wind speed is lowered to 80 kt, assuming the filling trend reported
by the last NOAA Hurricane Hunter mission continued. The wind radii
are expanded based on ASCAT data, with tropical-storm-force winds
over eastern Nova Scotia already.

The hurricane is forecast to transition into a post-tropical cyclone
later tonight or early tomorrow due to the cooler waters north of
the Gulf Stream likely weakening any central convection. Teddy
should decay below hurricane-strength before reaching Nova Scotia
and steadily weaken as it moves over the even colder waters in the
Gulf of St. Lawrence. The new intensity forecast is a little lower
than the previous one and is closest to the GFS model.

Teddy is moving northward now and should turn north-northeastward
tomorrow ahead of the next trough in the mid-latitudes. This will
take Post-Tropical Teddy over Nova Scotia and near Newfoundland
during the next couple of days, with the cyclone likely being
absorbed into a larger extratropical cyclone west of Greenland in
2-3 days. There are no significant changes to report, though there
has been a slight westward shift of the track near Newfoundland.

The hazards from Teddy are extending at quite a distance from the
center of this hurricane. In addition to the 500-mile wind
radii in the northeastern quadrant, Canadian buoy 44150 has
recently reported 42 ft (13 m) significant wave heights, with the
buoy still about 90 n mi from the center.

Key Messages:

1. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical
cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada
late today through Thursday. The most significant hazard expected
from Teddy is large destructive waves forecast along the southern
coast of Nova Scotia through Wednesday.

2. Very large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect
portions of Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the
Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada
during the next few days. These swells are expected to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

3. Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect for portions
of Nova Scotia, Newfoundland, Prince Edward Island and the Magdalen
Islands, and heavy rainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected
through Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 41.1N 64.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 43.1N 63.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 23/1800Z 47.0N 60.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 24/0600Z 51.5N 56.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 24/1800Z 56.5N 53.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Intermediate Advisory Number 42A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
800 PM AST Tue Sep 22 2020

...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TEDDY HEADING TOWARD THE NOVA SCOTIA
COAST...
...DESTRUCTIVE WAVES, HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR
PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.9N 64.2W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SSW OF PORT AUX BASQUES NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...29 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South coast of Nova Scotia from Digby to Meat Cove
* Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Meat Cove to Tidnish Nova Scotia
* North of Digby to Fort Lawrence Nova Scotia
* Magdalen Islands Quebec
* Prince Edward Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the
progress of Teddy.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy
was located near latitude 41.9 North, longitude 64.2 West. Teddy is
moving toward the north near 18 mph (29 km/h), and a turn toward the
north-northeast is expected by early Wednesday. On the forecast
track, the center will move over eastern Nova Scotia on Wednesday,
and then near or over Newfoundland by Wednesday night, and be east
of Labrador on Thursday.

Air Force Reserve hurricane hunters indicate that the maximum
sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with
higher gusts. Although further weakening is likely tonight and
Wednesday, Teddy should be a strong post-tropical cyclone when it
moves near and over Nova Scotia. A weather station at Brier Island
recently reported a sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h), and a gust
of 51 mph (81 km/h).

Teddy is an extremely large post-tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force
winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 540 miles (870 km).
Buoy 44150, located about 60 n mi north of the center, recently
reported a significant wave height of 36 ft (11 m).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall in Nova Scotia. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by very large and destructive waves.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the
Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Nova Scotia
warning area now. Tropical storm conditions could begin in the
watch areas tonight or early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions
are expected to begin in the Newfoundland warning area on Wednesday
afternoon.

RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals
of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

[AJC3]

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Advisory Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 22 2020

...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TEDDY FORECAST TO PRODUCE DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES, HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.8N 63.9W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 590 MI...950 KM WSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
ABOUT 465 MI...745 KM SSW OF PORT AUX BASQUES NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South coast of Nova Scotia from Digby to Meat Cove
* Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Meat Cove to Tidnish Nova Scotia
* North of Digby to Fort Lawrence Nova Scotia
* Magdalen Islands Quebec
* Prince Edward Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the
progress of Teddy.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy
was located near latitude 42.8 North, longitude 63.9 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 18 mph (30
km/h), and a turn toward the north-northeast is expected by early
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center will move over
eastern Nova Scotia on Wednesday, and then near or over
Newfoundland by Wednesday night, and be east of Labrador on
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Although weakening is likely tonight and
Wednesday, Teddy should be a strong post-tropical cyclone when it
moves near and over Nova Scotia.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 540
miles (870 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at http://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall in Nova Scotia. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by very large and destructive waves.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the
Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Nova Scotia
warning area. Tropical storm conditions could begin in the
watch areas by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions
are expected to begin in the Newfoundland warning area on Wednesday
afternoon.

RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals
of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Discussion Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 22 2020

Extratropical transition has been ongoing since last night, with
the cyclone's associated rain shield expanding over a great
distance in the northern semicircle. In addition, multiple
dropsonde observations from the Air Force Reserve hurricane hunters
and buoy data show a sharp temperature gradient of nearly 20
degrees F from northwest quadrant to the southeast, indicative of
the cyclone's involvement with the strong baroclinic frontal zone.
Accordingly, Teddy has become a strong post-tropical extratropical
cyclone. Highest flight-level winds recorded this evening were 83
kt about 85 miles northeast of the center and the highest SFMR
surface winds were 63 kt. A recent METOP-C scatterometer pass
showed sustained winds no higher than 59 kt in the east quadrant.
A blend of these data yields an initial intensity of 70 kt for this
advisory. Further gradual weakening is forecast through the period
as a result of the rapidly decreasing sea surface temperatures
(less than 20C) north of the North Wall of the gulf stream. The
NHC forecast indicates Teddy approaching the coast of Nova Scotia
below hurricane strength, but still as a strong post-tropical
extratropical low. Teddy should continue to gradually spin down as
the cyclone moves north-northeastward toward Newfoundland.

The initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 010/16 kt.
A north-northeastward turn is forecast later tonight or early
Wednesday in response to an approaching mid-latitude shortwave
trough moving out of the northeast U.S. Teddy should move over
Nova Scotia tomorrow and near the island of Newfoundland, and the
adjacent waters of the Gulf of St. Lawrence Wednesday night.
Afterward, the post-tropical cyclone will likely be absorbed by an
even larger high latitude extratropical cyclone near Greenland.
There has been no significant changes made to the NHC forecast
track this evening, and it's in best agreement with the HFIP
Corrected Consensus Approach model.


Key Messages:

1. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical
cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada
late today through Thursday. The most significant hazard expected
from Teddy is large destructive waves forecast along the southern
coast of Nova Scotia through Wednesday.

2. Very large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect
portions of Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the
Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada
during the next few days. These swells are expected to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

3. Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect for portions
of Nova Scotia, Newfoundland, Prince Edward Island and the Magdalen
Islands, and heavy rainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected
through Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 42.8N 63.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 23/1200Z 45.3N 62.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
24H 24/0000Z 49.8N 58.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 24/1200Z 54.7N 54.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 25/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts

[AJC3]

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Intermediate Advisory Number 43A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
200 AM AST Wed Sep 23 2020

...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TEDDY FORECAST TO PRODUCE DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES, HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...43.4N 63.5W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 555 MI...895 KM WSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM SW OF PORT AUX BASQUES NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South coast of Nova Scotia from Digby to Meat Cove
* Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Meat Cove to Tidnish Nova Scotia
* North of Digby to Fort Lawrence Nova Scotia
* Magdalen Islands Quebec
* Prince Edward Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the
progress of Teddy.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy
was located near latitude 43.4 North, longitude 63.5 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 18
mph (30 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for
the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center will move
over eastern Nova Scotia later today, and then near or over
Newfoundland by tonight, and be east of Labrador on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Although additional weakening is likely today,
Teddy should be a strong post-tropical cyclone when it moves near
and over Nova Scotia.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 540
miles (870 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall in Nova Scotia. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by very large and destructive waves.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the
Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Nova Scotia
warning area. Tropical storm conditions could begin in the
watch areas this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected to
begin in the Newfoundland warning area this afternoon.

RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals
of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Advisory Number 44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 AM AST Wed Sep 23 2020

...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TEDDY NEARING NOVA SCOTIA...
...CAUSING DESTRUCTIVE WAVES, STRONG WINDS, AND HEAVY
RAINFALL TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...44.5N 62.7W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM E OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 490 MI...785 KM WSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM SW OF PORT AUX BASQUES NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South coast of Nova Scotia from Digby to Meat Cove
* Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Meat Cove to Tidnish Nova Scotia
* North of Digby to Fort Lawrence Nova Scotia
* Magdalen Islands Quebec
* Prince Edward Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the
progress of Teddy.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy
was located near latitude 44.5 North, longitude 62.7 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 23
mph (37 km/h), and this motion with an increase in forward speed is
expected for the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center
will move over eastern Nova Scotia later today, and then near or
over Newfoundland by tonight, and be east of Labrador on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next day or so,
but Teddy should remain a strong post-tropical cyclone while
passing over Nova Scotia and near Newfoundland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 520 miles (835 km)
from the center. A sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust
to 57 mph (94 km/h) were reported at Brier Island along the western
coast of Nova Scotia within the past few hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall in Nova Scotia. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by very large and destructive waves.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the
Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Nova Scotia
warning area. Tropical storm conditions could begin in the
watch areas later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin in the Newfoundland warning area this afternoon.

RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals
of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Discussion Number 44...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 AM AST Wed Sep 23 2020

Corrected status at 48H

Teddy's deep convection has been diminishing, but based on buoy
observations the cyclone still has a strong circulation with a
central pressure in the 950's. Assuming a gradual spindown of the
system since the earlier aircraft observations, the estimated
maximum winds have dropped to just below hurricane strength. The
system is expected to traverse Nova Scotia today as a strong
extratropical cyclone, and move near Newfoundland by tonight. After
passing east of Labrador on Thursday, the global models show Teddy
merging with another large extratropical low over the north
Atlantic.

The estimated initial motion is north-northeastward or 025/20 kt.
Teddy is embedded within a deep-layer trough that is located in the
vicinity of Atlantic Canada. The post-tropical cyclone should move
north-northeastward on the eastern side of the trough for the next
36-48 hours before it merges with the other low. The official
track forecast is very similar to the previous one and also closely
follows the corrected multi-model consensus, HCCA.

Even after Teddy passes Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, large swells
will linger over much of the southwestern Atlantic basin for the
next few days.

Key Messages:

1. Teddy is expected remain a powerful post-tropical cyclone
while it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada through
tonight. The most significant hazard expected from Teddy is large
destructive waves forecast along the southern coast of Nova Scotia
today.

2. Very large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect
portions of Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the
Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada
during the next few days. These swells are expected to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

3. Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect for portions
of Nova Scotia, Newfoundland, Prince Edward Island and the Magdalen
Islands, and heavy rainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected
through Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 44.5N 62.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 23/1800Z 47.5N 60.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 24/0600Z 52.3N 56.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/1800Z 57.0N 53.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 25/0600Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch


BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Intermediate Advisory Number 44A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
800 AM AST Wed Sep 23 2020

...TEDDY CAUSING DESTRUCTIVE WAVES, STRONG WINDS, AND HEAVY
RAINFALL TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC CANADA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...44.8N 62.3W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM ENE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM SW OF PORT AUX BASQUES NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South coast of Nova Scotia from Digby to Meat Cove
* Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Meat Cove to Tidnish Nova Scotia
* North of Digby to Fort Lawrence Nova Scotia
* Magdalen Islands Quebec
* Prince Edward Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the
progress of Teddy.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy
was located near latitude 44.8 North, longitude 62.3 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 23
mph (37 km/h), and this motion with an increase in forward speed is
expected for the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center
will move over eastern Nova Scotia soon, and then near or over
Newfoundland by tonight, and be east of Labrador on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next day or so, but
Teddy should remain a strong post-tropical cyclone while passing
over Nova Scotia and near Newfoundland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 520 miles (835 km)
from the center. A sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust to
51 mph (81 km/h) were recently reported at Hart Island along the
eastern coast of Nova Scotia.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall in Nova Scotia. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by very large and destructive waves.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the
Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Nova Scotia
warning area. Tropical storm conditions could begin in the
watch areas later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin in the Newfoundland warning area this afternoon.

RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals
of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake



BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Advisory Number 45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 23 2020

...TEDDY MAKES LANDFALL NEAR ECUM SECUM NOVA SCOTIA...
...STILL FORECAST TO PRODUCE DESTRUCTIVE WAVES, STRONG WINDS, AND
HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC CANADA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...46.0N 61.3W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM NE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SW OF PORT AUX BASQUES NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Canadian Hurricane Centre has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning from Digby to Ecum Secum Nova Scotia.

The Canadian Hurricane Centre has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Watch from Fort Lawrence to Digby Nova Scotia, and from west of
Brule to Tidnish.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South coast of Nova Scotia from Ecum Secum to Meat Cove
* Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Meat Cove to Brule Nova Scotia
* Magdalen Islands Quebec
* Prince Edward Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress
of Teddy.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
Teddy made landfall near Ecum Secum, Nova Scotia, near 800 AM AST
(1200 UTC), with maximum sustained winds near 65 mph (100 km/h),
and a minimum central pressure of 964 mb (28.47 inches).

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy
was located near latitude 46.0 North, longitude 61.3 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 26
mph (43 km/h), and this motion with an increase in forward speed is
expected for the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center
will move over the Gulf of St. Lawrence this afternoon, be near
Newfoundland early tonight, and be east of Labrador on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Teddy should slowly weaken today before dissipating on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center. A sustained wind of 52 mph (83 km/h) and a gust to
67 mph (107 km/h) were recently reported at Hart Island along the
eastern coast of Nova Scotia.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding is still possible over portions of
eastern Nova Scotia east of Ecum Secum. Near the coast, large and
destructive waves are likely.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the
Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Nova Scotia
warning area and are expected to begin in the Newfoundland warning
area this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
watch areas today.

RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals
of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Discussion Number 45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 23 2020

Surface observations indicate that Teddy made landfall this morning
near Ecum Secum, Nova Scotia, near 1200 UTC with estimated maximum
sustained winds of 65 mph and a minimum pressure of 964 mb. Since
then, the storm has continued to race across Nova Scotia and is
slowly weakening. The initial wind speed is set to 50 kt. Teddy
should move north-northeastward across the Gulf of St. Lawrence this
afternoon then move near Newfoundland by tonight. After passing
east of Labrador on Thursday, the global models show Teddy merging
with another large extratropical low over the north Atlantic. No
significant changes were made to the previous track or intensity
forecasts, which are similar to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models.

Even after Teddy passes Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, large swells
creating dangerous rip currents will linger over much of the
southwestern Atlantic basin for the next few days.

Key Messages:

1. The most significant hazard expected from Teddy today is large
destructive waves along the southeastern coast of Nova Scotia.
Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect for portions of
Nova Scotia, Newfoundland, Prince Edward Island and the Magdalen
Islands, and heavy rainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected
through Thursday.

2. Very large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect
portions of Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the
Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada
during the next few days. These swells are expected to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 46.0N 61.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 24/0000Z 49.5N 58.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 24/1200Z 54.5N 54.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

[AJC3]

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Intermediate Advisory Number 45A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
200 PM AST Wed Sep 23 2020

...TEDDY MOVING OVER THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE...
...STILL LIKELY TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS WAVES AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...47.5N 60.3W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM NE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM W OF PORT AUX BASQUES NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Canadian Hurricane Centre has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Nova Scotia from Ecum Secum to Meat Cove.

The Canadian Hurricane Centre has discontinued all Tropical Storm
Watches.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area, in this case during about the
next 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC),the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy
was located near latitude 47.5 North, longitude 60.3 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 29
mph (46 km/h), and this motion with an increase in forward speed is
expected for the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center
be moving near Newfoundland through tonight, and be east of Labrador
on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Teddy should slowly weaken today before dissipating on
Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.76 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding and large waves are expected to
gradually subside late today.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the
Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the
warning area for the next several hours.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Advisory Number 46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 PM AST Wed Sep 23 2020

...TEDDY MOVING JUST WEST OF NEWFOUNDLAND...
...STILL LIKELY TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS WAVES AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...48.6N 59.6W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NNW OF PORT AUX BASQUES NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy
was located near latitude 48.6 North, longitude 59.6 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 31
mph (50 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue
through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Teddy will
move closer to northwestern Newfoundland tonight and into the
Labrador Sea on Thursday before becoming absorbed by a larger
non-tropical low.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast before the system dissipates
on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the
Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the
warning area for the next several hours.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Discussion Number 46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 PM AST Wed Sep 23 2020

Teddy is moving quickly north-northeastward just west of
Newfoundland this afternoon as a decaying extratropical low.
Maximum winds from an earlier scatterometer pass were about 50 kt,
and the winds have probably come down based on pressure data from
Meat Cove as the storm left Nova Scotia, so the initial wind speed
is set to 45 kt. Little change in intensity is expected overnight
as Teddy races near northwestern Newfoundland and southeastern
Labrador overnight. The storm is then forecast to move across the
Labrador Sea on Thursday and become absorbed into a powerful
extratropical low, where hurricane-force winds are forecast
southwest of Greenland. No changes were made to the previous track
or intensity forecasts.

Even after Teddy passes Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, large swells
creating dangerous rip currents will linger over much of the
southwestern Atlantic basin for the next few days.

Key Messages:

1. The most significant hazards expected from Teddy now are
dangerous waves and high winds for Newfoundland, and Tropical Storm
Warnings are in effect for parts of southwestern Newfoundland.

2. Very large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect
portions of Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the
Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada
during the next couple of days. These swells are expected to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 48.6N 59.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 24/0600Z 52.0N 56.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Intermediate Advisory Number 46A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
800 PM AST Wed Sep 23 2020

...TEDDY MOVING PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND...
...STILL LIKELY TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS WAVES AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...49.7N 59.2W
ABOUT 150 MI...115 KM NNE OF PORT AUX BASQUES NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...245 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Canadian Hurricane Centre has dicontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy
based on the Marble Mountain, Newfoundland radar and conventional
satellite imagery was located near latitude 49.7 North, longitude
59.2 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the
north-northeast near 31 mph (50 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue through Thursday. On the forecast track, the
center of Teddy should move closer to the northwestern Newfoundland
coast tonight and into the Labrador Sea on Thursday before merging
with a larger extratropical low.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before the system
merges with the extratropical low on Thursday. A weather station
located at Stephenville, Newfoundland recently reported a gust to 47
mph (76 km/hr).

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the
Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

WIND: Gusty winds are possible along the western coast of
Newfoundland tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts



BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Advisory Number 47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 23 2020

...TEDDY HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND...
...FOR FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
ENVIRONMENT CANADA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...51.0N 57.3W
ABOUT 530 MI...850 KM NNE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM NNW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 32 MPH...52 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy
was located near latitude 51.0 North, longitude 57.3 West based on
the Marble Mountain, Newfoundland, radar and surface observations
along the west coast of Newfoundland. The post-tropical cyclone
is moving toward the north-northeast near 32 mph (52 km/h), and
this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday. On
the forecast track, the center of Teddy should move closer to the
northwestern Newfoundland coast tonight and into the Labrador Sea on
Thursday before merging with a larger extratropical low.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast before the system merges with
the extratropical low on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).
By the Sea, Newfoundland (near the Cow Head Lighthouse) reported a
barometric pressure of 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the
Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

WIND: Gusty winds are possible along the western coast of
Newfoundland tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For hazard information for Newfoundland and
Labrador, please consult products issued by Environment Canada at
weather.gc.ca/hurricane/index_e.html

Additional information on the post-tropical cyclone can also be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Discussion Number 47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 23 2020

Teddy is accelerating over the northeastern Gulf of St. Lawrence and
will move over the Strait of Belle Isle later, while continuing
to fill/decay as an extratropical cyclone. The initial intensity
is set at 45 kt, and this is based on the various surface wind and
pressure observations along the west coast of Newfoundland from
Channel-Port aux Basques northward to Port Saunders and the Straits.
Teddy is forecast to maintain its current intensity and motion,
with some further increase in forward speed, and merge with a
larger, stronger high-latitude extratropical low near the Labrador
Sea on Thursday.

Even after Teddy passes Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, large swells
creating dangerous rip currents will linger over much of the
southwestern Atlantic basin for the next few days.

This will be the last NHC advisory on Teddy. For additional
information, including warnings, consult products issued by
Environment Canada at: weather.gc.ca/hurricane/index_e.html

For marine interests, additional information can be found in
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service under
AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 51.0N 57.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 24/1200Z 54.7N 54.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 25/0000Z...MERGED WITH A LARGER LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts