ATL: ALPHA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ClarCari]

Wonder if NHC is waiting to officially classify this until 90L gets named. 90L will likely have a greater human impact than 99L in the long run, so probably better to give 90L the last available retirable name.

If they were both really likely to be named at the same time the NHC would fosure give the name Wilfred to 90L first, but they also would’ve upped the chances for this earlier in the TWO.
They aren’t gonna also hold back the chances of development.

[Sciencerocks]

Hard to believe advisories aint being written. That's all I'll say about it.

[CrazyC83]

I can see this as an unnamed TS/STS in post-analysis.

[CrazyC83]

Wonder if NHC is waiting to officially classify this until 90L gets named. 90L will likely have a greater human impact than 99L in the long run, so probably better to give 90L the last available retirable name.

If they were both really likely to be named at the same time the NHC would fosure give the name Wilfred to 90L first, but they also would’ve upped the chances for this earlier in the TWO.
They aren’t gonna also hold back the chances of development.

This would be named immediately as well since it had a 55 kt ship report earlier. Even if weakened, it is probably about 45-50 kt right now.

[CyclonicFury]

99L is a candidate for post-season analysis classification like we saw with the unnamed subtropical storms in 2005 and 2013.

[ClarCari]

Is it bc it’s tiny? Because that satellite image from earlier looks tinier than Micro Marco 2008. Not a whole to see but it’s tricky with subtropical systems so idk.

[Ryxn]

I am really hoping they consider naming it at 2AM, maybe calling it Alpha. But it would be pretty short-lived if they named it. Do you think it's possible for the storm to get a name still? Or has it run out of time?

[Beef Stew]

Quite the perplexing little system. Frankly I'm a little surprised it wasn't classified as a STS, or even ever bumped from 30/30 for that matter. At this point, the lack of classification is seemingly all but guaranteed as it's quickly approaching the coast of Portugal and won't be around much longer. I wouldn't be surprised to see an unnamed STS in the postseason analysis, though.

[TheStormExpert]

Nothing much left to it, move along!

[Sciencerocks]

Looks awesome. I guess your looking at another satellite loop! This looks 10 times better then that weak depression in the gulf of Mexico!

[Ryxn]

Looks awesome. I guess your looking at another satellite loop! This looks 10 times better then that weak depression in the gulf of Mexico!
https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/4839/7fbWa0.gif

This should be Wilfred now!

Definitely think it's gonna be an unnamed tropical storm in reanalysis.

[ClarCari]

This is an honest question since I don’t know alot about subtropical systems, but what is it I’m supposed to be looking at? My limited knowledge of subtropical systems is, while they can be broad and have larger windfield, there is still some type of connected core that keeps the circulation together.
This looks too broad and that center doesn’t look really like a core that holds the system together. It looks purely extratropical to me, but maybe someone can help me here.

[Sciencerocks]

This is a tropical storm with a warm core with the convection near the center sustaining its self within tropical processes(warmer surface and colder upper atmosphere). It looks to have transitioned from a subtropical system over the past 12 hours into a purely tropical cyclone within a broader envelop.

Many systems(hundreds) at this latitude look like this and are upgraded.

[ClarCari]

This is a tropical storm with a warm core with the convection near the center sustaining its self within tropical processes. It looks to have transitioned from a subtropical system over the past 12 hours into a purely tropical cyclone within a broader envelop.

Many systems(hundreds) at this latitude look like this and are upgraded.

What are some names of systems that look like this with the HUGE outflow only somewhat attached to a center?
Not saying they don’t exist, I just want to see them for a better understanding.

[Sciencerocks]

This is a tropical storm with a warm core with the convection near the center sustaining its self within tropical processes. It looks to have transitioned from a subtropical system over the past 12 hours into a purely tropical cyclone within a broader envelop.

Many systems(hundreds) at this latitude look like this and are upgraded.

What are some names of systems that look like this with the HUGE outflow only somewhat attached to a center?
Not saying they don’t exist, I just want to see them for a better understanding.

They normally have an upper level low over them and they happen most commonly among systems that go from extratropical to tropical.
Some examples are most systems that start out extratropical like
Perfect storm of 1991
Hurricane Alex 2016

Tropical Storm Arlene 2017

Debby and Ernesto of 2018
Tropical Storm Melissa 2019

Hurricane Pablo 2019

Tropical Storm Sebastien 2019

[ClarCari]

This is a tropical storm with a warm core with the convection near the center sustaining its self within tropical processes. It looks to have transitioned from a subtropical system over the past 12 hours into a purely tropical cyclone within a broader envelop.

Many systems(hundreds) at this latitude look like this and are upgraded.

What are some names of systems that look like this with the HUGE outflow only somewhat attached to a center?
Not saying they don’t exist, I just want to see them for a better understanding.

They normally have an upper level low over them and they happen most commonly among systems that go from extratropical to tropical.
Some examples are most systems that start out extratropical like
Perfect storm of 1991
Debby and Ernesto of 2018
Tropical Storm Melissa 2019
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/93/Melissa_2019-10-12_1725Z.jpg/150px-Melissa_2019-10-12_1725Z.jpg
Hurricane Pablo 2019
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/42/Pablo_2019-10-27_1402Z.jpg/150px-Pablo_2019-10-27_1402Z.jpg
Tropical Storm Sebastien 2019

Neat to know! Hard to tell how big Melissa is with all that cloud cover over land, but she seems small. That’s been something that seems to be against it being classified right now I believe.

[CrazyC83]

It's warm core, non-frontal with (moderately) deep convection - cloud tops to -50C or so. That, by definition, is a tropical cyclone.

[DanieleItalyRm]

They have always done this with the East Atlantic systems, or have been named very late.
Ianos, tropical over Mediterranean sea, and 99L in evident tropical transition

[DanieleItalyRm]

[tomatkins]

http://medicanes.altervista.org/T2_3.png

Tiny for sure - even smaller than say Charlie. Definitely on the scale of Marco in 2008. I mean, if the thing is a tropical storm - go ahead and name it, then we get the fun of having a true Atlantic tropical storm hitting continental Europe for the first time in satellite era (I think Vince had been downgraded to depression shortly before making landfall)