ATL: ALPHA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hammy]

If this system manages to develop, it’s beginning to look like one of the easternmost genesis locations on record! What storm currently holds that record for most north and east?

Vince in 2005 I believe.

[Ryxn]

If this system manages to develop, it’s beginning to look like one of the easternmost genesis locations on record! What storm currently holds that record for most north and east?

Vince in 2005 I believe.

Pablo of 2019 holds the record at 18.8 W beating Vince's 18.9 W

[gfsperpendicular]

Cloud tops are cooling and down to -55 in some places.

[bob rulz]

And yet NHC has lowered chances. Why? Is it just because it's running short on time?

[CrazyC83]

And yet NHC has lowered chances. Why? Is it just because it's running short on time?

Probably. I know Vince stunned the NHC though...at first they didn't even want to admit it.

[CrazyC83]

It seems to be improving on satellite and convection is getting deeper. I'd be upping the probabilities...

[HurricaneEnzo]

This is currently looking real close to at least being a sub-tropical depression. If trends continue might get classified later today.

https://tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satloop ... product=ir

[gfsperpendicular]

Yeah this looks really, really good. Only has 36 hours until landfall on Portugal though so maybe that's why NHC is bearish on it. The chances were raised, but still low:

3. Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated this morning
in association with a non-tropical area of low pressure located
over the far northeastern Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east
of the Azores. Some additional subtropical development is possible
over the next day or so as it moves east-southeastward and then
northeastward at about 10 mph. The system is expected to reach the
coast of Portugal late Friday. For more information on this system,
see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[supercane4867]

Hard to get a good satellite view at this location. I'd say that it's pretty close to naming.

[kevin]

Looks like a STS to me, I expect chances to go up quite a bit later today, perhaps they'll even already classify it today. Also pretty cool to see Ianos to the right of the image below, definitely not something you see every day.

[gfsperpendicular]

Look at this cute little thing.

[RL3AO]

So we could be talking about two [sub]tropical systems hitting Europe within 24 hours. 2020 man...

[marionstorm]

It is astonishing that Portugal and glorious Hellas are going to get hit by tropical cyclones within the same week. Europeans need their own European Terraphoon Center.

[tolakram]

This is from the polar satellite flipped.



source: https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu ... 0576171875

[CrazyC83]

That looks like a TC or STC to me.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

That looks like a TC or STC to me.

It does to me as well. A fun little oddball.

Thank goodness for this system. I'm getting Andrew flashbacks watching the Teddy models. While I know it won't be that bad here the storm could still be the worst one I've ever experienced where I live now. I need something much lighter to calm my jittery nerves right now.

[bob rulz]

It looks good on visible but it seems to lack deep convection, though with how low-res the GOES imagery is here I'm not sure how reliable this is.

[CrazyC83]

The EUMETSAT imagery would be a better set to use there.

[us89]

Wonder if NHC is waiting to officially classify this until 90L gets named. 90L will likely have a greater human impact than 99L in the long run, so probably better to give 90L the last available retirable name.

[Blinhart]

Wonder if NHC is waiting to officially classify this until 90L gets named. 90L will likely have a greater human impact than 99L in the long run, so probably better to give 90L the last available retirable name.

That is a novel idea, but that isn't how the NHC works.