MED: 01M/IANOS (UDINE) - ex-Hurricane

[doomhaMwx]

There were a couple of SMAP passes over the storm on Sept 16. The morning pass is incomplete, but you can see some pixels equivalent to about 25m/s (50kts) there. The second pass appears to have captured max wind speeds between 30-35m/s (60-70kts). Looking back on this thread, this was the day when the system was sheared but quickly organized and featured a curved band pattern on satellite.

Maybe someone here is able to access/process high-res SMAP data so we could have a closer look. If this system was included in the ATCF, we could probably see SMAP data automatically processed for it.

https://i.imgur.com/kdgDZoE.png
https://i.imgur.com/oquyMVo.png

SMAP had another pass today but the system's center is already over land.

https://i.imgur.com/PFku5iR.png


Also, here are WindSat passes within the last few days. I don't know how reliable WindSat is, but it seems to me that the winds depicted below are overcooked.

https://i.imgur.com/zcb0962.png
https://i.imgur.com/Vi4QVgg.png
https://i.imgur.com/APU1n7N.png

The two SMAP passes on 16 September yielded 53.0 kt (0516Z) and 63.6 kt (1616Z). Both are 1-minute windspeeds.

Nice! Thanks. I had a feeling you're the one who could provide the exact SMAP reading.

[aspen]

A combination of Vince_and_Grace_fan’s analysis and the SMAP data from yesterday yields a peak intensity estimate of 65 kt and 988 mbar from Ianos.

[WAcyclone]

There were a couple of SMAP passes over the storm on Sept 16. The morning pass is incomplete, but you can see some pixels equivalent to about 25m/s (50kts) there. The second pass appears to have captured max wind speeds between 30-35m/s (60-70kts). Looking back on this thread, this was the day when the system was sheared but quickly organized and featured a curved band pattern on satellite.

Maybe someone here is able to access/process high-res SMAP data so we could have a closer look. If this system was included in the ATCF, we could probably see SMAP data automatically processed for it.

https://i.imgur.com/kdgDZoE.png
https://i.imgur.com/oquyMVo.png

SMAP had another pass today but the system's center is already over land.

https://i.imgur.com/PFku5iR.png


Also, here are WindSat passes within the last few days. I don't know how reliable WindSat is, but it seems to me that the winds depicted below are overcooked.

https://i.imgur.com/zcb0962.png
https://i.imgur.com/Vi4QVgg.png
https://i.imgur.com/APU1n7N.png

The two SMAP passes on 16 September yielded 53.0 kt (0516Z) and 63.6 kt (1616Z). Both are 1-minute windspeeds.

Nice! Thanks. I had a feeling you're the one who could provide the exact SMAP reading.

Haha! You can find the global full-res SMAP data here: http://data.remss.com/smap/wind/L3/v01. ... /NRT/2020/
Also note that I recently switched to using the WMO conversation factor of 0.9 for converting to 1-minute windspeeds as it correlates even better with SFMR winds (6.74 kt mean error).

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

Looks like the center didn't reached the mainland of Greece as most of the models anticipated, instead it remained just over the water near Kefalonia island and thus the inner core remained compact and symmetrical with quite deep convection (cloud tops were around -50, -55 Celsius in the latest hours). An approaching cold front will push the cyclone southward from the night hours and thanks to the advanced structure it may could reintensify a bit more than the models show.

[DanieleItalyRm]

Discreet activity (-50°C top cloud) over LLC remain:
https://it.sat24.com/HD/it/gr/visual

https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=10223646333523752&set=pcb.10223646344044015
https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=10223646334323772&set=pcb.10223646344044015

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

After all of the deep convection dissipated temporarily in the evening hours yesterday and the cyclone likely weakened to a depression, sustained deep convection redeveloped in the morning hours and now organizing qiuckly. The ASCAT passes around 8-9 UTC showed maximum wind around 30 kt, but based on the small size of the system and the development since that time it is probably around 40 kt now.

[DanieleItalyRm]

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

It contiuned to develop nicely during the afternoon, occasionally an eye-like feature also appeared. There was a 39 kt /1005,2 hPa ship report ~60 km of the center at 17 UTC, and based on this the intensity likely reached 50 kt while the central pressure dropped below 1000 hPa.

[galaxy401]

What a fascinating storm to watch. Where is Ianos going to head next? The African coast?

[gfsperpendicular]

Where is it going now?

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

What a fascinating storm to watch. Where is Ianos going to head next? The African coast?

Yes, toward the Lybian-Egyptian border. But it will begin to weaken tomorrow due to the increasing shear, and maybe open into a trough just before the landfall. However, it still has a chance to strengthen a bit in the night hours.

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

The cyclone became sheared at night, but the recent ASCAT show 30 kt wind as yesterday so it is likely still a weak TS.

[AJC3]

Greek newspaper article on Ianos (in English)...

https://kefaloniapulse.homeinkefalonia. ... since-1969

[AJC3]

Satellite time lapse of the final few "breaths" of Ianos as a sheared tropical cyclone.

 https://twitter.com/gdvictorm/status/1307781811129528320




I have Ianos becoming post-tropical approximately 60 miles north of Sidi Barrani, Egypt, near 32.7N, 25.9E



I hope Daniele or "Vince and Grace fan" will be writing up a complete track for this, which was likely both the strongest and most tropical (in character) warm core Mediterranean Sea cyclone of the satellite era. I'm not one prone to hype or exaggeration when it comes to TCs, but I am convinced that this was a bona-fide 65-knot hurricane at its peak, easily warranting tropical cyclone status.

[AJC3]

Youtube video of most of life history of Ianos

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jBzlmb8c3iI

The remnant vortex was drifting eastward near the Egyptian coast early this morning...

[DanieleItalyRm]

Beside the ASCAT I looked the SCATSAT data too in the last days, but I don't know how accurate this instrument is. The 45 kt on Tuesday morning and the 50 kt at Wednesday morning seemed too high, but the 50 kt in the evening hours was lot more realistic (however, the convection already started to weaken by this time after the organized curved band formed in afternoon). It also indicated the slight weakening of the cyclone by yesterday morning, and the evening hours again showed a lot of 50 kt barbs with one or two 55-60 kt which seems better estimate than the ASCAT's 45-50 kt.

https://i.imgur.com/iuKhLSu.png

So, do you think 63kt (minimal hurricane) for Ianos is plausible?
or stay on the 60kt strong ts?

I hope Daniele or "Vince and Grace fan" will be writing up a complete track for this, which was likely both the strongest and most tropical (in character) warm core Mediterranean Sea cyclone of the satellite era. I'm not one prone to hype or exaggeration when it comes to TCs, but I am convinced that this was a bona-fide 65-knot hurricane at its peak, easily warranting tropical cyclone status.

I'm sure Vince_and_Grace will make a very good report as he did for other Mediterranean cyclones and his coherent intensity and tracks.

I have prepared this "collage" for all web opponents who see Mediterranean cyclones as hybrids, smaller, weaker, over colder waters and higher latitudes than tropical cyclones
(I hope I have not made any cyclones data errors or in the English spelling:):

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

So, do you think 63kt (minimal hurricane) for Ianos is plausible?
or stay on the 60kt strong ts?

Based on the satellite images and available data that I saw up to now I think it may briefly reached the hurricane intensity around 00Z 18 September, before the landfall. It had stronger and more well-defined convection than Zorbas and the estimated central pressure also was a bit lower. I asked Meteo Greece at facebook but they did not know what was the exact minimum pressure at Kefalhnia Airport, but they said it could be around 986-987 before the 988 hPa measurement at 03Z.

I will make a track map in the next days with a wind-pressure estimation. An interesting note to this: Ianos became tropical cyclone around 00Z 15 September and became post-tropical by 18Z yesterday, so its lifetime was 5.75 day, which is longer than most of the Atlantic cyclones in this year, and also it would stand in an upscale place in the cyclone's list based on ACE too.

I made a satellite complitation from the cyclone as well:



Link: https://youtu.be/n1-442CFGx0

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

Here is the estimated track and intensity graph from me and also some precipitation data from Greece. The rain amounts were similar to Zorbas (2018), and caused severe flooding and mudslides especially in the Ionian Islands and Thessalian plain which is shown in the bottom satellite image (from Sentinel-2, 20th September) with the blueish areas.

[doomhaMwx]

Looks like none of us here knew about this. CIMSS provided ATMS images and intensity estimates for this system. Just came across it.

CIMSS TROPICAL CYCLONE ATMS INTENSITY ESTIMATE TC 01M 202001M

CURRENT ESTIMATE
STORM DATE TIME MSLP VMAX
202001M 0917 0018 968.5 63.8
202001M 0917 0108 968.3 63.3
202001M 0917 1139 973.3 57.5

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... 2001M.html


 https://twitter.com/DerrickHerndon2/status/1306740785220653061

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

Looks like none of us here knew about this. CIMSS provided ATMS images and intensity estimates for this system. Just came across it.

CIMSS TROPICAL CYCLONE ATMS INTENSITY ESTIMATE TC 01M 202001M

CURRENT ESTIMATE
STORM DATE TIME MSLP VMAX
202001M 0917 0018 968.5 63.8
202001M 0917 0108 968.3 63.3
202001M 0917 1139 973.3 57.5

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... 2001M.html

Many thanks for this!

Based on these data and also on the former SMAP measurements in this forum it is possible that the cyclone reached hurricane intensity around 15-18 UTC on 16 September as well, not only before the landfall on the next night. However, this estimates around midnight seems too high as the deep convection dissipated by this time, and the pressure data also too low.
When I searched data in the previous days I also found a 48 kt (10-min) ship report from 09 UTC when the cyclone still was sheared, which also could support 60-65 kt intensity in the second part of the afternoon when the convection changed into a curved band pattern.
Furthermore, there is a sea surface temperature compairson map in this case study from EUMETSAT which show remarkable (3-4 °C) upwelling southeast of Sicily where the cyclone was on 16th what also indicate strong winds. https://www.eumetsat.int/website/home/Images/ImageLibrary/DAT_5207482.html