An area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is producing showers and thunderstorms that are showing some signs of organization Upper-level winds are forecast to gradually become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form late this week while the low meanders over the southern Gulf of Mexico for the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
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54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E Boomer Sooner! Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners! - Daniel
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The Gulf Coast just can't catch a break this year.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.
It initially went thru SELA and SW Mississippi this past weekend as a tropical disturbance with a lot of tstorms. Round 2 coming, as a bonafide tropical system?
After Sally’s poorly modeled intensification and slow movement, I have to believe there’s a chance 90L/Wilfred/Alpha/whatever could stay over water for longer and become yet another Gulf hurricane. The further east it goes before heading back to the Mexican coast, the longer it’ll spend over 30-31C waters with the potential to RI like Katia or Karl.
Last edited by aspen on Wed Sep 16, 2020 7:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
With this system being Alpha or Beta depending on 99L (or God knows maybe Wilfred if 98L stays disorganized or is a depression for a while), at this rate we'll likely see Gamma (wave behind 98L) and even Delta (low possibly forming near Bahamas) BEFORE October 1, Delta would SMASH the earliest 25th tropical storm by almost 2 months (Gamma on November 15). It would also make September 2020 have a mind-boggling 12 named storms which would smash the current record of 8. Only 4 named storms would need to form October through December for 2020 to break 2005's storm count (and 5 storms for it to top 30 total). Very doable IMHO.
Those sure are some cold cloud tops! (image taken about 8:30 am Central on the College of DuPage satellite website)
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Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.
Location: 20.8°N 95.2°W Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: nan kt Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb Environmental Pressure: 1010 mb Radius of Circulation: 100 nm Radius of Maximum Wind: 90 nm
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Wow, talk about burn out, we all know how things can spin up down here if conditions get right. Wow
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
A slow-moving 90L/Wilfred could be more dangerous than a slow-moving Sally, because Sally was over an area of lower OHC. 90L, on the other hand, will be sitting in a region with much higher OHC (possibly up to 100-125 kJ cm-2). This will make it much less prone to upwelling, and SSTs and MPIs are high enough to support one hell of a major hurricane. Only time will tell if other atmospheric conditions will be favorable for intensification.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Definitely keeping an eye on 90L here in Deep South Texas.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Very real possibility this could become the storm that takes us to the Greek alphabet.
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My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.
This season has really been crazy 2020 is an unbelievable year. I remember when the Gulf went over a decade without a major hurricane landfall 2005-2017.