ATL: BETA - Models

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Cpv17
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#101 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 12:01 pm

Looks like the models want to brush it up against the mid TX coast then loop it back out into the Gulf again and into Louisiana.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#102 Postby ConvergenceZone » Thu Sep 17, 2020 12:08 pm

Blinhart wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:I noticed this invest isn’t on the storm2k map at the top of the page? Does that mean it’s no longer an invest?


As said earlier, it has never been on there, evidently there is some type of programming bug that prevents 90L from being shown.


Oh okay, sorry I must have scrolled past that comment, my bad...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#103 Postby Blinhart » Thu Sep 17, 2020 12:09 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:
Blinhart wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:I noticed this invest isn’t on the storm2k map at the top of the page? Does that mean it’s no longer an invest?


As said earlier, it has never been on there, evidently there is some type of programming bug that prevents 90L from being shown.


Oh okay, sorry I must have scrolled past that comment, my bad...



all good, hope that what I said didn't come off harsh.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#104 Postby BobHarlem » Thu Sep 17, 2020 12:28 pm

The 12z Canadian keeps it in the gulf for the entire 240 hour run, and ends west of Tampa.

I think this one is going to give everyone in the Gulf from MX to The Florida Peninsula fits because it's going to be yet another nearly impossible one to forecast.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#105 Postby TallahasseeMan » Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:03 pm

12z Euro seems to get 90L farther north through 48hrs vs 0z
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#106 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:10 pm

TallahasseeMan wrote:12z HWRF has this stronger thru 36hrs compared to 6z/0z


It makes landfall along the upper-Texas coast. It looks like it could bring quite a bit of rain. My area could handle quite a bit, as we are quite dry.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#107 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:12 pm

Where and when is final landfall? Thanks in advance.



TallahasseeMan wrote:12z Euro seems to get 90L farther north through 48hrs vs 0z
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#108 Postby BobHarlem » Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:24 pm

Stormcenter wrote:Where and when is final landfall? Thanks in advance.

TallahasseeMan wrote:12z Euro seems to get 90L farther north through 48hrs vs 0z


Not there yet (into tuesday). The early model plots is just one giant ball of junk in the Gulf. This one is a dart throw for landfall.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#109 Postby Portastorm » Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:26 pm

Stormcenter wrote:Where and when is final landfall? Thanks in advance.



TallahasseeMan wrote:12z Euro seems to get 90L farther north through 48hrs vs 0z


By Monday morning it takes the system very close to Port Mansfield but does not make landfall. Then it drifts slowly (Sally-like) north towards the Coastal Bend area between hours 96-120.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#110 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:28 pm

This cyclone will be a major headache for everyone over the next week at least, and in the case of the CMC, upward to 10 days potentially meandering in the GOM.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#111 Postby davidiowx » Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:32 pm

This Euro run is insane. Basically riding along the TX coast for 3 days between hours 72-144
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#112 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:33 pm

12Z Euro so far.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#113 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:35 pm

landfall

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#114 Postby SoupBone » Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:35 pm

davidiowx wrote:This Euro run is insane. Basically riding along the TX coast for 3 days between hours 72-144



Looks lopsided with most of the rain to its east, out into the GoM though.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#115 Postby stormlover2013 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 4:26 pm

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1718&fh=78
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#116 Postby SoupBone » Thu Sep 17, 2020 5:32 pm

The GFS has "lost" the 3 storm solution it showed earlier, and now has a tropical storm sitting over Corpus Christi, then raking up the Texas coast losing steam as it goes over Houston as a sloppy mess.
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models

#117 Postby davidiowx » Thu Sep 17, 2020 6:07 pm

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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models

#118 Postby catskillfire51 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 6:31 pm

No HWRF or HMON runs I guess because of the new designation?
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models

#119 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 6:37 pm

catskillfire51 wrote:No HWRF or HMON runs I guess because of the new designation?


First runs are at 00Z I think?
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models

#120 Postby catskillfire51 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 7:45 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
catskillfire51 wrote:No HWRF or HMON runs I guess because of the new designation?


First runs are at 00Z I think?


They were doing them as Invest 90 before was just curious
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