ATL: BETA - Models

[USTropics]

After 102 hours it's offshore again, coastal scraper all the way up the Texas coast. Likely secondary landfall occurring on the 00z ECMWF at 132 hours near the TX/LA border:

[SoupBone]

Latest Euro's rain through next Friday.

[Cpv17]

Latest Euro's rain through next Friday.

https://i.imgur.com/kccaRfX.png

Surprised it’s not more than that.

[SoupBone]

Latest Euro's rain through next Friday.

https://i.imgur.com/kccaRfX.png

Surprised it’s not more than that.

It moves it out pretty fast, though it's concerning that it's not that far offshore where the really heavy stuff is. Our paid weather service says 4"-8" around the Greater Houston Area.

[Cpv17]

Latest Euro's rain through next Friday.

https://i.imgur.com/kccaRfX.png

Surprised it’s not more than that.

It moves it out pretty fast, though it's concerning that it's not that far offshore where the really heavy stuff is. Our paid weather service says 4"-8" around the Greater Houston Area.

I mean it sits in the same spot for 3-4 days. 4-8” wouldn’t be that bad especially over a 4 day window.

[SoupBone]

Surprised it’s not more than that.

It moves it out pretty fast, though it's concerning that it's not that far offshore where the really heavy stuff is. Our paid weather service says 4"-8" around the Greater Houston Area.

I mean it sits in the same spot for 3-4 days. 4-8” wouldn’t be that bad especially over a 4 day window.

That was the last forecast though, don't know if that will change. It's a battle now between the GFS/HWRF and the Euro. I'm interested to see if that GFS run was just some crazy fluke. The HWRF will not let up on this burying itself into Central Texas, which would be very bad for Corpus Christi.

[SoupBone]

06Z GFS Rainfall would be very bad for Lake Charles and just north of Corpus Christi

[SoupBone]

At least 4 runs of the HWRF showing dissipation into Central Texas. I'm not gonna post the run, but it is similar to its last. Why is no one talking about it?

[South Texas Storms]

At least 4 runs of the HWRF showing dissipation into Central Texas. I'm not gonna post the run, but it is similar to its last. Why is no one talking about it?

It's certainly possible and has caught my eye as well. The 6z Euro also shows it moving farther inland into central TX. We definitely can't rule that scenario out.

[Nederlander]

At least 4 runs of the HWRF showing dissipation into Central Texas. I'm not gonna post the run, but it is similar to its last. Why is no one talking about it?

Because it’s still 5 days out. It’s starting to sniff out the approaching trough in the last run, just probably hasn’t got a good handle on it yet

[SoupBone]

At least 4 runs of the HWRF showing dissipation into Central Texas. I'm not gonna post the run, but it is similar to its last. Why is no one talking about it?

It's certainly possible and has caught my eye as well. The 6z Euro also shows it moving farther inland into central TX. We definitely can't rule that scenario out.

Last night the GFS showed a somewhat similar run, then the Euro this morning. It seems like something is being sniffed out that makes the models think a more inland path is realistic. And it's more than 4 HWRF runs, that's only the ones I've been paying attention to. If that ends up verifying, the HWRF will have been days ahead of the other models on this. I guess we'll see.

[JayTX]

Those rainfall totals are what concern me. As close as they are to land its not a stretch they could move inland more and cause major problems. Especially being this many days out.

[catskillfire51]

At least 4 runs of the HWRF showing dissipation into Central Texas. I'm not gonna post the run, but it is similar to its last. Why is no one talking about it?

I mentioned a couple pages back on how good the HWRF has been this year especially in the Gulf, it even showed the storm being further NE before recon found the real center.

[Nederlander]

Those rainfall totals are what concern me. As close as they are to land its not a stretch they could move inland more and cause major problems. Especially being this many days out.

Beta is going to have to contend with dry air, won’t have near the moisture pool as Harvey or Imelda to work with

[Cpv17]

Those rainfall totals are what concern me. As close as they are to land its not a stretch they could move inland more and cause major problems. Especially being this many days out.

Beta is going to have to contend with dry air, won’t have near the moisture pool as Harvey or Imelda to work with

Dry air could eat it up. We might not even get much rain from it here in SETX. Or we could get more if it doesn’t have as much dry air working against it. I guess we’ll see.

[SoupBone]

Latest GFS would put some heavy rain south of Houston, and a bunch of rain into South Louisiana.

[catskillfire51]

HWRF and HMON both make landfall near East Matagorda Bay and Matagorda Bay. HWRF is Monday morning in East Matagorda Bay and HMON is Monday Evening in Matagorda Bay

[setxweathergal64]

HWRF and HMON both make landfall near East Matagorda Bay and Matagorda Bay. HWRF is Monday morning in East Matagorda Bay and HMON is Monday Evening in Matagorda Bay

As what TS? Then what, Dissipate or head NE?

[catskillfire51]

HWRF and HMON both make landfall near East Matagorda Bay and Matagorda Bay. HWRF is Monday morning in East Matagorda Bay and HMON is Monday Evening in Matagorda Bay

As what TS? Then what, Dissipate or head NE?

As a high TS but the model isn't finished running yet so far 6 Hours later it is a little inland still headed west maybe a little southwest

[swampdude]

The HWRF has proven to be pretty accurate this season. Until this drunk-sailor of a storm finds it's way, I might lean to the HWRF for no other particular reason.