ATL: BETA - Models

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SoupBone
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#21 Postby SoupBone » Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:46 am

CMC keeps it hanging around Northern Mexico/Extreme Southern Texas. Unreal, this season.
Last edited by SoupBone on Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:47 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#22 Postby TallahasseeMan » Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:46 am

Quite a spread in 12z guidance, GFS takes it to New Orleans, CMC has it hover off the coast of extreme south Texas, northern Mexico. Will be curious to see what UKMET and the Euro go with.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#23 Postby LarryWx » Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:52 am

TallahasseeMan wrote:Quite a spread in 12z guidance, GFS takes it to New Orleans, CMC has it hover off the coast of extreme south Texas, northern Mexico. Will be curious to see what UKMET and the Euro go with.



12Z UKMET: N MX bound

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 22.4N 95.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 21.09.2020 120 22.7N 94.8W 1003 35
0000UTC 22.09.2020 132 23.2N 95.4W 1001 38
1200UTC 22.09.2020 144 23.9N 96.4W 996 48
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#24 Postby LarryWx » Wed Sep 16, 2020 12:24 pm

12Z GEFS has many of the 21 members go into MX. However, similar to the 6Z, it has ~20% of the members coming into or near LA.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#25 Postby aspen » Wed Sep 16, 2020 12:31 pm

12z HWRF develops a teeny tiny TC out of this in 36-42 hours.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#26 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 12:34 pm

Ukmet isn’t Mexico
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#27 Postby Frank P » Wed Sep 16, 2020 12:38 pm

At h66 HWRF has a 993 mb system moving to the NE to near 25.4n and 92.0w for 90L
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#28 Postby TallahasseeMan » Wed Sep 16, 2020 12:41 pm

HWRF at hr 66 is heading towards LA.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#29 Postby tailgater » Wed Sep 16, 2020 12:49 pm

Weak but still not wanted.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#30 Postby Frank P » Wed Sep 16, 2020 12:49 pm

H93 HWRF 12z 992 mb just west of Vermillion Bay
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#31 Postby SoupBone » Wed Sep 16, 2020 12:50 pm

The HWRF is this Sunday!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#32 Postby BigB0882 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 12:51 pm

The HWRF, with the way it has been performing, absolutely gets my attention. Far too soon (especially this season) to focus on a track or landfall location but I'll pay close attention the strength from the HWRF.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#33 Postby catskillfire51 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 12:53 pm

notice the HWRF has a shift to the west as it approaches Louisiana as well.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#34 Postby xironman » Wed Sep 16, 2020 12:53 pm

Ukie does a cyclonic loop ends up near Mexican border

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#35 Postby Wx_Warrior » Wed Sep 16, 2020 12:53 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:Ukmet isn’t Mexico


Heading WNW into NMex at 144
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#36 Postby edu2703 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 12:54 pm

Quite a spread from the models. From Louisiana to NE Mexico.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#37 Postby LarryWx » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:04 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:Ukmet isn’t Mexico


It isn't MX but it is headed in that direction at 144 heading WNW at 23.9N, 96.4W:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#38 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:28 pm

12z Euro.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#39 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:35 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#40 Postby SoupBone » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:36 pm

Looking at the end of the HWRF, I wonder of it re-emerges into the GoM after raking across Louisiana, then over Houston.
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