ATL: BETA - Models

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cheezyWXguy
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Re: ATL: BETA - Models

#221 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sat Sep 19, 2020 10:50 pm

Great, the 0z gfs is doing the thing again. Beta undergoes some strengthening before landfall. It’s not much, from 1001mb to 996mb, but these gom systems have had a tendency to over perform in this department. We’ll see if there’s a trend, but as of right now it’s not significant.
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JayTX
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Re: ATL: BETA - Models

#222 Postby JayTX » Sun Sep 20, 2020 10:04 am

HWRF is still showing Beta landfall mid Texas coast continuing inland quite a ways before turning NE. Not sure what to believe at this point.
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Re: ATL: BETA - Models

#223 Postby PTrackerLA » Sun Sep 20, 2020 10:49 am

06z EURO precip through 90hrs, umm let's hope hope this is a fluke :eek:

Image
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Re: ATL: BETA - Models

#224 Postby JayTX » Sun Sep 20, 2020 10:52 am

PTrackerLA wrote:06z EURO precip through 90hrs, umm let's hope hope this is a fluke :eek:

https://i.imgur.com/lh3xKmn.png

No one anywhere near that area needs that! :grr:
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Re: ATL: BETA - Models

#225 Postby Blinhart » Sun Sep 20, 2020 10:59 am

PTrackerLA wrote:06z EURO precip through 90hrs, umm let's hope hope this is a fluke :eek:

https://i.imgur.com/lh3xKmn.png


UUUHHHHMMMMMM we don't need 20 inches of rain.
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Re: ATL: BETA - Models

#226 Postby sphelps8681 » Sun Sep 20, 2020 11:18 am

cheezyWXguy wrote:Great, the 0z gfs is doing the thing again. Beta undergoes some strengthening before landfall. It’s not much, from 1001mb to 996mb, but these gom systems have had a tendency to over perform in this department. We’ll see if there’s a trend, but as of right now it’s not significant.


I think the one I remember ramping up to a cat 1 was Humberto. Correct me if I am wrong.
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Re: ATL: BETA - Models

#227 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Sep 20, 2020 11:43 am

sphelps8681 wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:Great, the 0z gfs is doing the thing again. Beta undergoes some strengthening before landfall. It’s not much, from 1001mb to 996mb, but these gom systems have had a tendency to over perform in this department. We’ll see if there’s a trend, but as of right now it’s not significant.


I think the one I remember ramping up to a cat 1 was Humberto. Correct me if I am wrong.

Yeah, I think at the time at least, it was the fastest system to go from TD to cat1 in the atlantic. I doubt that’s the case for beta though, and the models have become even less enthusiastic on last minute strengthening. You know there’s not much potential when even the NAM shows it coming in at 999mb
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Re: ATL: BETA - Models

#228 Postby sphelps8681 » Sun Sep 20, 2020 11:50 am

cheezyWXguy wrote:
sphelps8681 wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:Great, the 0z gfs is doing the thing again. Beta undergoes some strengthening before landfall. It’s not much, from 1001mb to 996mb, but these gom systems have had a tendency to over perform in this department. We’ll see if there’s a trend, but as of right now it’s not significant.


I think the one I remember ramping up to a cat 1 was Humberto. Correct me if I am wrong.

Yeah, I think at the time at least, it was the fastest system to go from TD to cat1 in the atlantic. I doubt that’s the case for beta though, and the models have become even less enthusiastic on last minute strengthening. You know there’s not much potential when even the NAM shows it coming in at 999mb


Kinda weird that everything that happens in my life is based on when a hurricane as hit my area. Most of which has been construction/replacement of things. I will be like yea the roof was replaced in 2005 after Rita. Then fence that was after Ike and so on. Kinda of funny. :D
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Re: ATL: BETA - Models

#229 Postby Nimbus » Sun Sep 20, 2020 11:57 am

The models are parameter driven and need to be tweaked.
You never know, if you tightened up the B screw to create a narrow cone of uncertainty early you have time to fix it before someone else opens the low limit screw too far by mistake.

WV imagery not showing a lot of steering but my unscientific thinking is that there will be a little more sag to the south then they were thinking earlier.
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Re: ATL: BETA - Models

#230 Postby Steve » Sun Sep 20, 2020 5:04 pm

Here’s the 18z NAM. It takes it west to the coast. It bursts in a few hours and again tomorrow and finally just at landfall. Low center stays near coastal Texas but mid and upper level moisture shears off.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2018&fh=60
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