EPAC: MARIE - Post-Tropical

[storminabox]

At least this season has given us a couple of gems. I’m glad the EPAC could muster our one more impressive storm, despite its very unfavorable background state. If this becomes a low end cat 4, I’ll be satisfied.

[aspen]

If the outer bands were to meld into the inner eyewall, Marie could continue to bomb out without the typical interruption of an EWRC.

[Yellow Evan]

T7.0 instantaneous DT. Probably not near that territory yet but it could be in 12 hours.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
800 PM PDT Thu Oct 01 2020

Marie is still strengthening this evening. Satellite images
indicate that the hurricane has a well-defined compact eye with a
ring of cold cloud tops surrounding that feature. The Dvorak
classifications at 0000Z were T5.5/102 kt from both TAFB and SAB,
but since the cyclone has continued to strengthen, the initial
intensity is increased to 110 kt. This value is below the latest
Dvorak ADT numbers that are currently around 6.2/120 kt. Marie has
strengthened at an impressive rate of 45 kt over the past 24 hours.

Satellite fixes indicate that the hurricane is moving fairly quickly
to the west-northwest on the south side of a mid-level ridge, with
the latest initial motion estimated to be 285/13 kt. The system is
expected to move slower to the west-northwest or northwest during
the next several days as it nears the western periphery of the ridge
and moves toward a broad trough well off the California coast. The
models are in fair agreement in the short term, but there is a
notable amount of spread in the guidance in 4 to 5 days, likely due
to differences in the vertical depth of Marie and how much the
trough influences its steering. The NHC track forecast remains near
the consensus aids, and is largely an update of the previous one.

The major hurricane will likely continue to strengthen during the
next 12 to 24 hours while it remains in quite favorable conditions
of low vertical wind shear, a moist air mass, and over warm 28-29 C
SSTs. It should be noted that eyewall replacement cycles could
occur during that time, which might cause fluctuations in the
cyclone's strength. By Saturday, Marie is expected to level off in
intensity and then rapidly weaken when the hurricane crosses the
26-deg-C SST isotherm and moves into an environment of increasing
west-southwesterly shear and drier air. The NHC intensity forecast
remains above the guidance in the short term, but falls in line with
the bulk of the models beyond 36 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 15.6N 122.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 16.3N 123.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 17.3N 125.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 18.4N 127.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 19.4N 128.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 04/1200Z 20.2N 130.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 20.8N 131.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 06/0000Z 22.0N 134.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 07/0000Z 23.4N 136.4W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 OCT 2020 Time : 022031 UTC
Lat : 15:31:47 N Lon : 121:56:59 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 942.4mb/122.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.3 6.5 6.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 11 km

Center Temp : +2.6C Cloud Region Temp : -73.6C

Scene Type : EYE

[CrazyC83]

I have a feeling we'll see a Special Advisory soon with a higher intensity. I'd put it at 125 kt.

[Kingarabian]

Straight teasing us.. would be an easy 7.0 if the eye temp was more positive.

[Yellow Evan]

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 OCT 2020 Time : 052031 UTC
Lat : 15:48:00 N Lon : 122:34:48 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.7 / 933.3mb/132.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.7 6.4 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 11 km

Center Temp : -7.3C Cloud Region Temp : -71.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Eye needs to re-warm but with ADT over 130 knots, NHC having this only at 110 is odd.

[Yellow Evan]

02/0530 UTC 15.8N 122.6W T6.0/6.0 MARIE -- East Pacific

[Astromanía]

Third major for a la niña year is a great adchieve, just one below last season that was supposed to be active

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
800 PM PDT Thu Oct 01 2020

Marie is still strengthening this evening. Satellite images
indicate that the hurricane has a well-defined compact eye with a
ring of cold cloud tops surrounding that feature. The Dvorak
classifications at 0000Z were T5.5/102 kt from both TAFB and SAB,
but since the cyclone has continued to strengthen, the initial
intensity is increased to 110 kt. This value is below the latest
Dvorak ADT numbers that are currently around 6.2/120 kt. Marie has
strengthened at an impressive rate of 45 kt over the past 24 hours.

Satellite fixes indicate that the hurricane is moving fairly quickly
to the west-northwest on the south side of a mid-level ridge, with
the latest initial motion estimated to be 285/13 kt. The system is
expected to move slower to the west-northwest or northwest during
the next several days as it nears the western periphery of the ridge
and moves toward a broad trough well off the California coast. The
models are in fair agreement in the short term, but there is a
notable amount of spread in the guidance in 4 to 5 days, likely due
to differences in the vertical depth of Marie and how much the
trough influences its steering. The NHC track forecast remains near
the consensus aids, and is largely an update of the previous one.

The major hurricane will likely continue to strengthen during the
next 12 to 24 hours while it remains in quite favorable conditions
of low vertical wind shear, a moist air mass, and over warm 28-29 C
SSTs. It should be noted that eyewall replacement cycles could
occur during that time, which might cause fluctuations in the
cyclone's strength. By Saturday, Marie is expected to level off in
intensity and then rapidly weaken when the hurricane crosses the
26-deg-C SST isotherm and moves into an environment of increasing
west-southwesterly shear and drier air. The NHC intensity forecast
remains above the guidance in the short term, but falls in line with
the bulk of the models beyond 36 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 15.6N 122.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 16.3N 123.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 17.3N 125.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 18.4N 127.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 19.4N 128.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 04/1200Z 20.2N 130.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 20.8N 131.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 06/0000Z 22.0N 134.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 07/0000Z 23.4N 136.4W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[aspen]

Marie is in the middle of an EWRC, although it appears to be going pretty well. The outer eyewall is already pretty well established on IR imagery.

[aspen]

Wow, the EWRC is nearly over. That was quick. Marie should have enough time to clear out her eye and get back to intensification at this rate.

[aspen]

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 020844
TCDEP3

Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
200 AM PDT Fri Oct 02 2020

Marie has strengthened further since the last advisory, with
satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB now at 115 kt and
the CIMSS ADT estimate now near 130 kt. However, during the past
couple of hours, satellite imagery shows that the eye has become
less well defined. It is unclear at this time whether this is
because the hurricane is starting an eyewall replacement or whether
it has peaked in intensity. The initial intensity for this
advisory is increased to a possibly conservative 115 kt. Marie
currently has good to excellent cirrus outflow in all directions.

The initial motion is west-northwestward or 295/13 kt as the
hurricane is being steered by a mid-level ridge to the north. The
system is expected to move toward the west-northwest or northwest
at a slower forward speed during the next several days as it
approaches the western periphery of the ridge and a broad
mid-latitude trough well off the California coast. The track
guidance remains in good agreement on this scenario through 72 h,
but there remains increasing spread after that time, which is likely
due to model differences in the vertical depth of Marie and how much
the trough influences its steering. The guidance shifted a little
to the north of the previous guidance through 72 h, so the new
forecast track is also nudged northward during that time. The new
track is in best agreement with the HCCA corrected consensus model.

If Marie is not undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, conditions
appear favorable for additional strengthening during the next
12-18 h. After that, the system will be moving over decreasing
sea surface temperatures and entraining dryer air, which should
cause weakening. An faster weakening is expected after 36 h due to
increasing westerly shear. The new intensity forecast has minor
adjustments from the previous forecast, and through 72 h it lies
near the upper edge of the intensity guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 16.2N 123.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 16.9N 124.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 17.9N 126.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 19.0N 127.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 19.9N 129.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 04/1800Z 20.6N 130.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 21.1N 131.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 22.0N 134.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 23.5N 136.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 OCT 2020 Time : 135032 UTC
Lat : 16:35:38 N Lon : 124:04:05 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 941.9mb/122.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.1 6.0 6.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -42.0C Cloud Region Temp : -70.8C

[SconnieCane]

She's a beaut. Looks like a big typhoon that should be about 70 degrees further west.

If you bought into the seasonal forecasts (like I did), Atlantic should have produced 3 or 4 of these by now regardless of insane genesis rate.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
800 AM PDT Fri Oct 02 2020

Marie's structure has not changed significantly since the previous
advisory. A recent AMSR microwave image showed that the hurricane
continues to have a closed eyewall that is a little thin on the
southeast side, but there are no clear indications that an eyewall
replacement is occuring. Dvorak final-T numbers from TAFB and SAB
diverged from 6 hours ago, with TAFB's going up to T6.5 and SAB's
falling to T5.5. In addition, final-T numbers from the objective
ADT scheme have decreased since six hours ago. Because of the
estimate discrepancies, the initial intensity is being held at 115
kt.

Marie is moving west-northwestward (290 degrees) at 12 kt, just a
little to the left of and slower than the previous motion estimate.
A large mid-tropospheric high centered over the southwestern United
States continues to be the main driver of Marie's motion, but the
hurricane should begin to reach a break in the ridge and turn toward
the northwest in the next 24 hours. After that time, a general
motion toward the northwest or west-northwest should continue
through the end of the forecast period. The spread in the guidance
does increase a bit by days 4 and 5, which appears to be related to
the depth of the cyclone and how it interacts with the steering
flow. Overall, though, the guidance envelope has not shifted, and
the NHC forecast was only slowed down a bit to be more in line with
the latest TVCE multi-model consensus and HCCA aid.

Marie should remain in a low-shear environment and over waters
warmer than 26 degrees Celsius for the next 24 hours, during which
time some additional strengthening is possible. Any
intensification could be thwarted by an eyewall replacement,
but as stated above, that does not appear to be occuring at this
time. Increasing deep-layer southwesterly shear and cooler waters
should induce a definitive weakening trend after 24 hours, with
Marie falling below hurricane strength by day 3, and then becoming
a tropical depression by day 5. The NHC intensity forecast has
been adjusted downward a bit during the weakening phase and lies
near or just above the IVCN intensity consensus and the HCCA aid.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 16.5N 124.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 17.2N 125.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 18.3N 127.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 19.3N 128.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 20.0N 129.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 05/0000Z 20.6N 130.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 21.0N 132.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 22.0N 135.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 23.5N 137.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg/Reinhart

[hurricanes1234]

She's a beaut. Looks like a big typhoon that should be about 70 degrees further west.

If you bought into the seasonal forecasts (like I did), Atlantic should have produced 3 or 4 of these by now regardless of insane genesis rate.

Agreed. It's amazing that even though we've all been making jokes about 2020 in the EPAC and how most storms struggled (definitely myself included in that ), it's still managed to produce more major hurricanes than the Atlantic thus far, in spite of the fact that the Atlantic is on Greek letters and everyone is talking about how hyperactive it's been because of the named storm count.