WPAC: INVEST 98W

[Hayabusa]

Looks like 96W got renumbered

98W.INVEST

[Nancy Smar]

98W.INVEST.20kts.1004mb.20.2N.146.7E

[Hayabusa]

ABPW10 PGTW 280600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/280600Z-290600ZSEP2020//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280151ZSEP2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
21.3N 146.9E, APPROXIMATELY 380 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A COMPACT
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 282233Z METOP-A PASS INDICATES A POSSIBLE
CIRCULATION ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A SHARP TROUGH WITH 20-25KT
WINDS IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT WITH 10-15KT WINDS ELSEWHERE.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES INVEST 98W IS EXPERIENCING LOW
(<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM
(30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT RESOLVE INVEST
98W WELL AND THEREFORE DO NOT INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
POLEWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

That's a legit tropical cyclone possibly mid range TS.

[euro6208]

[NotoSans]

ASCAT shows a tight and closed circulation but only 25KT max winds. Can be renumbered but definitely a TD only.

[euro6208]

Invest 98W
As of 00:00 UTC Sep 29, 2020:

Location: 22.4°N 147.6°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1001 mb

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 21.3N 146.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 147.6E, APPROXIMATELY
360 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS A SMALL LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH SOME BANDING IN
THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 290345Z AMSR2 PASS INDICATES A POSSIBLE
CIRCULATION WITH SPOTTED CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES INVEST 98W IS EXPERIENCING LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF 98W
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
POLEWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

Was probrably a TD earlier. Scatterometer shows winds as high as 30 knots.

A miss...

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 21.3N 146.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 147.9E, APPROXIMATELY
392 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS A SMALL LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH SOME CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ON THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES. ANALYSIS INDICATES
AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF 98W
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
POLEWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 27.6N 147.9E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[Hayabusa]

It's gone from weather maps