WPAC: CHAN-HOM - Post-Tropical

[ElectricStorm]

The previous Chan-hom (2015) was a Cat 4. I don't know if this one can get that strong but it could still be a solid typhoon.

[euro6208]

TS Chan-Hom

WDPN31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (CHAN-HOM)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (CHAN-HOM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 799
NM SOUTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE
INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE BROAD
CIRCULATION
PRESENT IN A 050045Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS AND THE ASSOCIATED AMSU
89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED
ASCAT-B PASS SHOWING 25-30 KT BARBS CONTAINED WITHIN THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT. TS 16W IS SLOWLY TRACKING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
AND
WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). THE SYSTEM IS
UNDER
SUPPORTIVE UPPER LEVEL EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 16W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 72. DURING
THIS TIME, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH AN INTENSITY OF 85 KTS BY
TAU 72 DUE TO THE CONTINUED LOW VWS AND WARM SSTS. MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH A CROSS TRACK SPREAD OF 220NM BY
TAU
72. AFUM AND JGSM HAVE TS 16W TRACKING TOWARDS KADENA, WHEREAS
ECMWF,
NAVGEM AND GFS SHOW A TIGHTER RECURVE SOUTH OF HONSHU. THE JTWC
FORECAST
IS LAID NEAR THIS SECOND GROUP OF MEMBERS, INSTEAD OF DRIVING TS 16W
INTO THE RIDGE SITUATED OVER CHINA.
C. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE STR AXIS WITH
A NORTHWARD TRACK TOWARDS KYUSHU. TS 16W WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
DURING
THIS PERIOD AS THE VWS BEGINS TO INCREASE TO 20 KNOTS BY TAU 96 AND
THEN
TO OVER 30 KNOTS OF VWS BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH A CROSS TRACK SPREAD OF 250 NM AT TAU 96, LENDING
FAIR
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THERE IS OVERALL FAIR
CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC INTENSITY GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN MEMBERS AND
THE
DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

12z EURO does a nearly 360 Loop south of Japan after 240 hours.

[Hayabusa]

[doomhaMwx]

 https://twitter.com/sayakasofiamori/status/1313096744964558852

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (CHAN-HOM)
WARNING NR 04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (CHAN-HOM), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 738 NM SOUTH OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS
TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND BUILDING CONVECTION
OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LLCC IN THE EIR LOOP AS WELL AS THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION THAT IS PRESENT IN THE WIND FIELD OF A
051043Z ASCAT-A PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS) AND THE 35 KTS
WINDS PRESENT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT-A DATA. TS 16W
IS TRACKING SLOWLY ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST AND
THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
WITH WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM
(29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). THE SYSTEM
IS UNDER SUPPORTIVE UPPER LEVEL EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HOWEVER
CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM HAS STIFLED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS CHAN-HOM IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STEERING STR THROUGH TAU 72. DURING THIS TIME, THE SYSTEM WILL
STEADILY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 85 KTS BY TAU 72,
LARGELY DUE TO THE CONTINUED LOW VWS AND WARM SSTS. THE
STEERING ENVIRONMENT DURING THIS TIME IS COMPLEX DUE TO THE
REORIENTATION OF THE STEERING STR TO THE EAST AND OF A
DEEP LAYER RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE WEST. A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD
IN NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAINS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TIMING OF THIS REORIENTATION. FOR EXAMPLE, THERE IS A
MAXIMUM ACROSS TRACK SPREAD IN TRACK GUIDANCE OF 270 NM BY TAU
72. THIS SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS LENDS ONLY FAIR CONFIDENCE
IN THE INITIAL PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
C. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS AND
BEGIN A GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD TRACK TOWARDS KYUSHU. TS
CHAN-HOM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THIS PERIOD TO 70 KTS BY
TAU 96 DUE TO HIGH (30+ KTS) VWS. CONTINUED HIGH VWS WILL LEAD
TO FURTHER WEAKENING THEREAFTER TO 55 KTS BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL
MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY BY TAU 120 WITH A
700 NM ACROSS TRACK SPREAD AT THIS TIME. DUE TO THIS HIGH
DEGREE OF DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS, THERE IS POOR
CONFIDENCE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING
NR 006//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (CHAN-HOM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 167 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 052335Z GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND EVIDENT CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. A 052310Z ASCAT-A BULLSEYE
IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED LLCC WITH A SWATH OF 45-49 KT WINDS TO THE
EAST, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. BASED ON THE
ASCAT DATA AND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KTS) BY
PGTW, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS.
TS 16W IS MOVING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SST), LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND ESTABLISHED
EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO
THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 16W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR THROUGH TAU 72, STEADILY
INTENSIFYING TO A PEAK OF 80 KTS DUE TO CONTINUED LOW VWS AND WARM
SST. DURING THIS TIME, THE STEERING STR WILL BEGIN TO REORIENT.
UNCERTAINTY IN THIS REORIENTATION INDUCES UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING
OF THE RECURVE, INCREASING MODEL SPREAD TO 211 NM BY TAU 72. OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS, THE MODEL SOLUTIONS, AND THUS FORECAST TRACK,
HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD. BASED ON THE SPREAD, THERE IS ONLY
FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
C. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FIRST NORTHWARD THEN ROUND
THE STR AXIS AND TURN TO A GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD TRACK TOWARDS
KYUSHU. DUE TO HIGH (>20 KTS) VWS, TS 16W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD TO AN INTENSITY OF
50 KTS BY TAU 120. TS 16W WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE DURING THIS TIME AND COMMENCE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. IN THE
EXTENDED RANGE, THE ALONG-TRACK SPREAD HAS INCREASED AT TAU 120 DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE RECURVE. THUS, THERE IS ONLY
FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING
NR 007//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (CHAN-HOM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 586 NM
EAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD,
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 060618Z
SSMI 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS RAGGED SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING
INTO THE BROAD LLCC, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED
ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 3.0 (45 KNOTS) AND A RECENT
ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING EXTENSIVE GALE-FORCE WINDS, PARTICULARLY OVER
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, WITH A PATCH OF 45-50 KNOT MAXIMUM WINDS
OVER THE EASTERN QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE
WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10
KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, TS 16W IS SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING DUE TO THE
BROAD NATURE OF THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO
THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 16W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR THROUGH TAU 72,
INTENSIFYING AT A SLOWER-THAN-CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE TO A PEAK OF 80
KTS AT TAU 72. TS 16W IS FORECAST TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT
APPROACHES THE RYUKYU ISLANDS WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE
RECURVE POINT. THERE IS CURRENTLY A 160NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU
72. THIS UNCERTAINTY IN THE NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS IS DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF A LARGE BREAK IN THE WESTERN AND EASTERN SUBTROPICAL
RIDGES AND THE LACK OF A DYNAMIC MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WHICH
WOULD TYPICALLY ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM POLEWARD. IN FACT, THE GLOBAL
MODELS DEPICT A ZONAL PATTERN WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PROPAGATING
OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA NEAR TAU 60-72. THE 06/0000Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE ALSO INDICATES A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE RECURVE
POINT NEAR THE RYUKYU ISLANDS. BASED ON THE COMPLEX STEERING PATTERN
AND LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
C. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS AND TURN TO A
GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF JAPAN. DUE
TO HIGH (>30 KTS) VWS, TS 16W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD TO AN INTENSITY OF 50 KTS BY
TAU 120. TS 16W WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
DURING THIS TIME AND COMMENCE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. IN THE
EXTENDED RANGE, THE ALONG-TRACK SPREAD HAS INCREASED AT TAU 120 DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE RECURVE. THUS, THERE IS ONLY
FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

16W CHAN-HOM 201006 1200 24.3N 137.7E WPAC 55 980

Up to 55 knots without recon......

[mrbagyo]

The appearance of this TC is so lame compared to Hurricane Delta.
Nothing, I just wanna diss Chan-Hom haha

[euro6208]

The appearance of this TC is so lame compared to Hurricane Delta.
Nothing, I just wanna diss Chan-Hom haha

Don't get brainwash into the media and social hype. World's most active basin is down 1 year but should be back next year.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING
NR 008//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (CHAN-HOM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 552 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
A 061136Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, HOWEVER, INDICATES THAT THE
CONVECTIVE BANDING REMAINS FRAGMENTED. A 061137Z ASCAT-B BULLSEYE
IMAGE SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE AND SHOWS
EXTENSIVE GALE-FORCE WINDS SURROUNDING A WELL-DEFINED CENTER WITH 50-
55 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN QUADRANT. THIS IMAGE WAS USED TO
ADJUST THE INITIAL 34-KNOT AND 50-KNOT WIND RADII. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON PGTW/KNES DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) AS WELL AS THE ASCAT DATA.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER,
TS 16W IS SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE LLCC.
THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 16W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR THROUGH TAU 72,
INTENSIFYING AT A SLOWER-THAN-CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE TO A PEAK OF 80
KTS AT TAU 48. TS 16W IS FORECAST TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT
APPROACHES THE RYUKYU ISLANDS WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE
RECURVE POINT. THERE IS CURRENTLY A 200NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU
72. THIS UNCERTAINTY IN THE NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS IS DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF A LARGE BREAK IN THE WESTERN AND EASTERN SUBTROPICAL
RIDGES AND THE LACK OF A DYNAMIC MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WHICH
WOULD TYPICALLY ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM POLEWARD. IN FACT, THE GLOBAL
MODELS DEPICT A ZONAL PATTERN WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PROPAGATING
OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA NEAR TAU 60-72. THE 06/0000Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE ALSO INDICATES A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE RECURVE
POINT NEAR THE RYUKYU ISLANDS. BASED ON THE COMPLEX STEERING PATTERN
AND LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
C. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS AND TURN TO A
GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF JAPAN. DUE
TO HIGH (>30 KTS) VWS, TS 16W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD TO AN INTENSITY OF 50 KTS BY
TAU 120. TS 16W WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
DURING THIS TIME AND COMMENCE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. IN THE
EXTENDED RANGE, THERE ARE MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN TRACKS SPEEDS WITH
GFS, NAVGEM AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATING SIGNIFICANTLY
FASTER TRACK SPEEDS WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES A
SLOWER RECURVE. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IN LINE WITH THE BULK OF THE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE (HIGH UNCERTAINTY) IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[ElectricStorm]

The appearance of this TC is so lame compared to Hurricane Delta.
Nothing, I just wanna diss Chan-Hom haha

Don't feed into the media and social hype. World's most active basin is down 1 year but should be back next year.

So all a Cat 4/5 is in another basin besides the WPAC is hype to you?

[euro6208]

The appearance of this TC is so lame compared to Hurricane Delta.
Nothing, I just wanna diss Chan-Hom haha

Don't feed into the media and social hype. World's most active basin is down 1 year but should be back next year.

So all a Cat 4/5 is in another basin besides the WPAC is hype to you?

Yes with all the media attention and social hype. Add in reliable recon...

I'm sorry but have you seen the estimates and compared them with recon data so far? Not just with this system but for other systems as well?

Maybe i wouldn't be complaining much but seeing these wide range of disparity, who wouldn't?

There are professional storm chasers out there that are on the same boat as me.

[ElectricStorm]

Don't feed into the media and social hype. World's most active basin is down 1 year but should be back next year.

So all a Cat 4/5 is in another basin besides the WPAC is hype to you?

Yes with all the media attention and social hype. Add in reliable recon...

I'm sorry but have you seen the estimates and compared them with recon data so far? Not just with this system but for other systems as well?

A likely cat 4/5 is heading right towards a major tourist destination. And the gulf coast states... It should definitely be getting the attention it has been getting. A storm like Delta affecting land should be getting attention. It doesn't matter what basin it's in. BTW, I'm not trying to start an argument or anything. I would just be cautious about calling a monster storm overhyped. Especially as it forecast to landfall near peak intensity

[euro6208]

So all a Cat 4/5 is in another basin besides the WPAC is hype to you?

Yes with all the media attention and social hype. Add in reliable recon...

I'm sorry but have you seen the estimates and compared them with recon data so far? Not just with this system but for other systems as well?

A likely cat 4/5 is heading right towards a major tourist destination. And the gulf coast states... It should definitely be getting the attention it has been getting. A storm like Delta affecting land should be getting attention. It doesn't matter what basin it's in.

I understand but most news channels are based in the U.S that's why no attention. Also the WPAC is probrably the most populated basin worldwide. You have major megapolis cities along typhoon alley not just tourist destinations. Since ever since.

[euro6208]

So all a Cat 4/5 is in another basin besides the WPAC is hype to you?

Yes with all the media attention and social hype. Add in reliable recon...

I'm sorry but have you seen the estimates and compared them with recon data so far? Not just with this system but for other systems as well?

A likely cat 4/5 is heading right towards a major tourist destination. And the gulf coast states... It should definitely be getting the attention it has been getting. A storm like Delta affecting land should be getting attention. It doesn't matter what basin it's in. BTW, I'm not trying to start an argument or anything. I would just be cautious about calling a monster storm overhyped. Especially as it forecast to landfall near peak intensity

Yes I understand you. Not trying to start an argument. You were probrably a little irritated by me by responding.

[euro6208]

Imagine agencies calling this a Cat 4 but no clear eye and estimates only between 75 to 90 knots and nothing to support higher?

Ohhh....

They be calling them crazy or try to debunk them.

Recon.....................

[Astromanía]

I think every storm in the world should get attention regardless of impact or strenght, if you love tropical cyclones and meteorology in general then you should admire every single system that forms in different areas, it's not a competency of what basin is better and bla bla, of course people will pay more attention to systems that may affect their country and since this page is from the US you should expect people more interesting for atlantic systems, for me I follow every system in the world but I pay more attention to systems from EPAC and ATL because they can affect me directly, many members here don't care about the EPAC because it's very rare a system that forms there affect the conus

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR
009//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (CHAN-HOM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 509 NM
EAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
OBSCURED BY FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. A 061711Z ATMS 88.2 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND A BROAD LLCC AND
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KTS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 BY PGTW AND KNES AND HEDGED UNDER
A 061740Z ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T3.8 (61 KTS) AND A
061619Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 66 KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORABLE AS TS 16W IS POSITIONED UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL POINT SOURCE
WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT. TS 16W IS SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING AS
IT TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 16W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR THROUGH TAU 72,
INTENSIFYING TO A PEAK OF 80 KTS AT TAU 36. TS 16W IS FORECAST TO SLOW
SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT APPROACHES THE RYUKYU ISLANDS WITH INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY IN THE RECURVE POINT. AROUND TAU 60, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
BEGIN TO ROUND THE STR. CURRENTLY, THERE IS A 151 NM SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS AT TAU 48 AND 223 NM AT TAU 72. THE VARIATION IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS IS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A LARGE BREAK IN THE WESTERN AND
EASTERN SUBTROPICAL RIDGES ALONG WITH THE LACK OF A DYNAMIC
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WHICH WOULD TYPICALLY ACCELERATE THE
SYSTEM POLEWARD. THE GLOBAL MODELS CURRENTLY DEPICT A ZONAL PATTERN
WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PROPAGATING OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA NEAR TAU
60. ADDITIONALLY, THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE AS A
OUTLIERS TO THE EAST AFTER TAU 12 WITH THE UKMET ENSEMBLE SOLUTION
TRACKING FURTHER WEST THAN THE MAJORITY OF THE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE. BASED ON THE COMPLEX STEERING PATTERN AND LARGE SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.
C. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN TO A GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD
TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF JAPAN. DUE TO HIGH (>30 KTS) VWS, TS
16W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD TO AN INTENSITY OF 50 KTS BY TAU 120. TS 16W WILL BEGIN TO
INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE DURING THIS TIME AND COMMENCE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. IN THE EXTENDED RANGE, THERE ARE MAJOR
DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEEDS BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH GFS, NAVGEM
AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATING SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER TRACK SPEEDS
WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES A SLOWER RECURVE. THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
IN LINE WITH THE BULK OF THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. DUE TO THESE
MODEL DIFFERENCES, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE (HIGH UNCERTAINTY)
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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