ATL: GAMMA - Models

[chaser1]

Any opinion on the likelihood that the para GFS' much further N movement into the Gulf is going to verify? If so, the para GFS is suggesting that the followup would likely also track much further north and maybe come into the east coast of FL from the east as a relatively weak TC followed by not much Gulf development. It isn't just the last para GFS run that did this, but rather the last FOUR runs that have done this! Is it on crack or is it seeing reality?

I think it's a fair question to ask Larry and I definitely do not necessarily agree with those suggesting that an approach to south or central florida would be a lock for this storm to be destroyed by Westerlies. I'm going to take a good long look at this my after work and see if there's any viable solution that would still steer this storm toward Florida.

[cp79]

I don’t think Gamma is a Florida storm, just a Florida rainmaker. The one behind Gamma that’ll be coming up in 4-5 days is the storm Florida needs to watch out for. Just my two cents from looking at models and looking at the WV and hostility in the Gulf right now.

[StAuggy]

4 models depicting a northward turn or deviation to the north/northwest starting around 6 days from now. Also EGRI with a cat 2 at day 6. If shear fails to dissolve this system and it hangs around too long is gamma going to get a shot at a 180 and exit stage right?

[Emmett_Brown]

Well, the Euro certainly missed this one. Gamma is almost a hurricane at landfall, but the 0Z 10/1 just a mere 48 hours ago showed just an open wave crossing the coast.

[cp79]

Well, the Euro certainly missed this one. Gamma is almost a hurricane at landfall, but the 0Z 10/1 just a mere 48 hours ago showed just an open wave crossing the coast.

Euro is horrible when it comes to forecast intensity. It never develops a storm until it actually develops. It destroyed Isaias early and often. It’s better with track forecasts, though. They should be the one to look at most for that.

[cp79]

4 models depicting a northward turn or deviation to the north/northwest starting around 6 days from now. Also EGRI with a cat 2 at day 6. If shear fails to dissolve this system and it hangs around too long is gamma going to get a shot at a 180 and exit stage right?

I have a hard time seeing Gamma surviving that shear and dry air in the Gulf. It’s gonna have to find a place to duck and hide to avoid it. And it’s gonna persist most of next week. The second system in the Carib is the one that has more potential but I’m not sure it will survive Gamma’s outflow.

[StAuggy]

4 models depicting a northward turn or deviation to the north/northwest starting around 6 days from now. Also EGRI with a cat 2 at day 6. If shear fails to dissolve this system and it hangs around too long is gamma going to get a shot at a 180 and exit stage right?

I have a hard time seeing Gamma surviving that shear and dry air in the Gulf. It’s gonna have to find a place to duck and hide to avoid it. And it’s gonna persist most of next week. The second system in the Carib is the one that has more potential but I’m not sure it will survive Gamma’s outflow.

It’s def going to need to hide... but as we know when it comes to shear... long term forecasts tend to be as iffy as long term track guidance.

[LarryWx]

12Z UK says that like the CMC says that the CONUS needs to keep watching Gamma for potential regeneration and a subsequent move toward the Gulf coast in about a week or so with 92L falling apart in advance:

TROPICAL STORM GAMMA ANALYSED POSITION : 22.2N 88.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL252020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.10.2020 0 22.2N 88.1W 996 39
0000UTC 05.10.2020 12 22.5N 87.7W 998 39
1200UTC 05.10.2020 24 21.8N 88.1W 1000 32
0000UTC 06.10.2020 36 21.3N 89.5W 1000 31
1200UTC 06.10.2020 48 20.4N 91.2W 995 45
0000UTC 07.10.2020 60 19.4N 91.9W 989 56
1200UTC 07.10.2020 72 18.8N 91.7W 990 47
0000UTC 08.10.2020 84 19.7N 91.2W 997 36
1200UTC 08.10.2020 96 21.4N 91.6W 999 34
0000UTC 09.10.2020 108 23.6N 92.4W 1000 31
1200UTC 09.10.2020 120 24.4N 93.6W 998 26
0000UTC 10.10.2020 132 25.7N 93.0W 997 30
1200UTC 10.10.2020 144 26.7N 93.1W 994 35

[ScottNAtlanta]

Well, the Euro certainly missed this one. Gamma is almost a hurricane at landfall, but the 0Z 10/1 just a mere 48 hours ago showed just an open wave crossing the coast.

Euro is horrible when it comes to forecast intensity. It never develops a storm until it actually develops. It destroyed Isaias early and often. It’s better with track forecasts, though. They should be the one to look at most for that.

The Euro has been bad all season long with genesis