ATL: DELTA - Models
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: ATL: DELTA - Models
Did the GFS jump west too? It's kind of hard to see at the resolution I'm looking at it.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
Nederlander
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1171
- Joined: Sat Jul 19, 2008 4:28 pm
- Location: Nederland, TX
-
Wx_Warrior
- Category 5
- Posts: 2718
- Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2006 3:58 pm
- Location: Beaumont, TX
Re: ATL: DELTA - Models
Nederlander wrote:06z Euro ensembles
https://i.ibb.co/mqMKg15/4-CDC86-D8-0544-4-FD7-9141-6-D207-E48-E8-E3.png
So another west shift. So we had one east shift in model runs to around 6, 7, 8 shifts west? I'd say it's a trend.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
Stormcenter
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6617
- Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
- Location: Houston, TX
Re: ATL: DELTA - Models
I hate to beat a dead horse but It is 2020 after all.
Like I’ve said beware of the models. If I recall correctly several had Laura still
headed as far west as Houston until almost 12 hours before
landfall. We still have the entire Gulf for Delta to travel
over and a lot can change before landfall.
Like I’ve said beware of the models. If I recall correctly several had Laura still
headed as far west as Houston until almost 12 hours before
landfall. We still have the entire Gulf for Delta to travel
over and a lot can change before landfall.
4 likes
-
Wx_Warrior
- Category 5
- Posts: 2718
- Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2006 3:58 pm
- Location: Beaumont, TX
-
Nederlander
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1171
- Joined: Sat Jul 19, 2008 4:28 pm
- Location: Nederland, TX
Re: ATL: DELTA - Models
No appreciable change in landfall for 12z GFS (between Grand Chenier and Pecan Island), but it is about 6 hours slower - Friday night vs midday
1 likes
-
stormlover2013
- Category 5
- Posts: 2312
- Joined: Thu Aug 22, 2013 12:06 pm
- Location: Lumberton, Texas
-
TeamPlayersBlue
- Category 5
- Posts: 3308
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 1:44 am
- Location: Denver/Applewood, CO
Re: ATL: DELTA - Models
stormlover2013 wrote:all about how strong the trough is going to be.
This. In the GFS it is getting weaker.
On the Euro, its hardly there.
1 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
PTrackerLA
- Category 5
- Posts: 5248
- Age: 40
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
- Location: Lafayette, LA
Re: ATL: DELTA - Models
The core of strongest winds around the center is huge on the GFS. Looks like Lafayette would get the strongest part.
0 likes
-
Wx_Warrior
- Category 5
- Posts: 2718
- Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2006 3:58 pm
- Location: Beaumont, TX
-
tolakram
- Admin
- Posts: 19165
- Age: 60
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re: ATL: DELTA - Models
12Z HWRF
0 likes
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
-
Nederlander
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1171
- Joined: Sat Jul 19, 2008 4:28 pm
- Location: Nederland, TX
Re: ATL: DELTA - Models
BigB0882 wrote:Is that an Eastward shift for the HMON?
No, same as 06z, but a bit stronger.
3 likes
-
BigB0882
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2219
- Joined: Thu Jul 03, 2003 12:08 am
- Location: Baton Rouge, LA
- Contact:
Re: ATL: DELTA - Models
Nederlander wrote:BigB0882 wrote:Is that an Eastward shift for the HMON?
No, same as 06z, but a bit stronger.
Thanks, for some reason I thought the HMON was west of the HWRF but I must have had it backwards.
2 likes
Re: ATL: DELTA - Models
12Z UKMET: consistent with prior runs and other models with a major H (954ish) landfall on west central LA and NNE track through NE LA and NW MS followed by an ENE move through the TN Valley:
HURRICANE DELTA ANALYSED POSITION : 20.9N 87.2W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL262020
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.10.2020 0 20.9N 87.2W 978 50
0000UTC 08.10.2020 12 22.5N 90.2W 971 60
1200UTC 08.10.2020 24 23.9N 92.3W 967 61
0000UTC 09.10.2020 36 25.5N 93.4W 960 70
1200UTC 09.10.2020 48 27.8N 93.3W 950 77
0000UTC 10.10.2020 60 30.9N 92.0W 967 46
1200UTC 10.10.2020 72 33.2N 90.5W 990 27
0000UTC 11.10.2020 84 34.6N 87.9W 997 19
1200UTC 11.10.2020 96 36.5N 84.8W 1001 14
0000UTC 12.10.2020 108 38.5N 80.8W 1002 31
1200UTC 12.10.2020 120 41.9N 77.3W 1001 31
0000UTC 13.10.2020 132 44.7N 74.3W 1000 34
1200UTC 13.10.2020 144 CEASED TRACKING
HURRICANE DELTA ANALYSED POSITION : 20.9N 87.2W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL262020
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.10.2020 0 20.9N 87.2W 978 50
0000UTC 08.10.2020 12 22.5N 90.2W 971 60
1200UTC 08.10.2020 24 23.9N 92.3W 967 61
0000UTC 09.10.2020 36 25.5N 93.4W 960 70
1200UTC 09.10.2020 48 27.8N 93.3W 950 77
0000UTC 10.10.2020 60 30.9N 92.0W 967 46
1200UTC 10.10.2020 72 33.2N 90.5W 990 27
0000UTC 11.10.2020 84 34.6N 87.9W 997 19
1200UTC 11.10.2020 96 36.5N 84.8W 1001 14
0000UTC 12.10.2020 108 38.5N 80.8W 1002 31
1200UTC 12.10.2020 120 41.9N 77.3W 1001 31
0000UTC 13.10.2020 132 44.7N 74.3W 1000 34
1200UTC 13.10.2020 144 CEASED TRACKING
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
Wx_Warrior
- Category 5
- Posts: 2718
- Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2006 3:58 pm
- Location: Beaumont, TX
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139162
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: DELTA - Models
1 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
MississippiWx
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1535
- Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2010 1:44 pm
- Location: Hattiesburg, Mississippi
Re: ATL: DELTA - Models
BigB0882 wrote:Is that an Eastward shift for the HMON?
Yes, the HMON shifted east slightly along with HWRF. Not much, but east. Euro finally trying to join the consensus. Still a little west of it though. Probably will be additional wobbling back and forth but consensus is on the extreme Western edge of Vermilion Bay.
0 likes
This post is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of MississippiWx and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 23 guests