ATL: DELTA - Models

[Jagno]

12z ICON

[url]https://i.ibb.co/qRDM9JX/icon-mslp-pcpn-frzn-us-18.png [/url]

Geeez . . . That is basically right where Laura came ashore

Yes it is............right over where my house WAS pre Laura and now sits my 5th wheel camper in my driveway. We will be rolling out tomorrow-evacuating. We still have massive mountains of debris everywhere lining streets, ditches and lots that will be airborne and dangerous, not to mention no drainage at this time. Electricity was just restored for many this week. Still no cable but running off of hot spot from my cell.

[Wx_Warrior]

FWIW

[Red eye]

It looks as though we have stopped the westward bleed. Landfall in between Grand Lake and Vermilion Bay in my opinion. We're leaving. We can come back to a crater in the ground for all I care. Can't start over on the Earth from death....Well, maybe you can in some religions.

[bella_may]

FWIW

[url]https://i.ibb.co/vXx9mvk/1.png [/url]

That’s a pretty decent east shift

[stormlover2013]

FWIW

[url]https://i.ibb.co/vXx9mvk/1.png [/url]

No it’s not little west from 12z also 18z Nam shifted west

[tailgater]

FWIW

[url]https://i.ibb.co/vXx9mvk/1.png [/url]

That’s a tight cluster all the way into Tennessee right there, paw paw (local reference).

[Nimbus]

There is an upper level low over west Texas that has a tiny chance of cutting off and rolling southwest.
Other than that the flow is streaming north over Texas and I assume that this is the intact "trough" that is mentioned in some of the forecasts?

[HurryKane]

FWIW

[url]https://i.ibb.co/vXx9mvk/1.png [/url]

That’s a tight cluster all the way into Tennessee right there, paw paw (local reference).

Did that guy pass away? Haven’t seen those commercials in looooong time.

[CrazyC83]

18Z GFS is running now. Virtually unchanged from 12Z.

[AdamFirst]

It looks as though we have stopped the westward bleed. Landfall in between Grand Lake and Vermilion Bay in my opinion. We're leaving. We can come back to a crater in the ground for all I care. Can start over on the Earth from death....Well, maybe you can in some religions.

Wishing your and yours the best of luck

[LARanger]

So a couple of days ago or less they launched 26 atmospheric sampling apparatii of some kind, IIRC, with data ingested by the 00Z model runs thereafter.

Is there any plan we might be aware of to do that again?

That event prompted a significant (to me anyway) eastward shift. As the data has aged the westward shifting resumed. My layman's concern is that the reality might be more eastward but that the models are tightening onto incomplete data that pushes things to the west.

I'm sure that's a complex and costly operation, and perhaps not generally necessary so soon after, but I was curious if we had any intel on that.

[SoupBone]

18Z GFS comes in almost at the same exact spot, but a bit weaker.

[Nimbus]

18Z GFS is running now. Virtually unchanged from 12Z.

1012 mb isobar outlining the ridge shows a slightly stronger ridge in the 18Z GFS.
I'm never comfortable with forecasts involving troughs since occasionally you get splits like with cat 4 storms Charlie and Andrew. Stronger storms might be more likely to do that kind of thing but its just a theory.

[MississippiWx]

Most models have had very little change run to run for the past day. Pretty remarkable for a 3-day forecast. The Euro has made the largest shift of any model and its still west of the consensus. Doubt there will be any shift of significance from here on.

[SoupBone]

Most models have had very little change run to run for the past day. Pretty remarkable for a 3-day forecast. The Euro has made the largest shift of any model and its still west of the consensus. Doubt there will be any shift of significance from here on.

If you watch Levi's video, he goes into detail why. The models are in pretty good agreement with the setup of the high off to the east and trough over Texas. His words were something like it being a pretty basic steering setup. So I don't think any huge models swing from here on out. Levi mentioned some minor swings could occure, but nothing dramatic.

[stormlover2013]

Most models have had very little change run to run for the past day. Pretty remarkable for a 3-day forecast. The Euro has made the largest shift of any model and its still west of the consensus. Doubt there will be any shift of significance from here on.

If you watch Levi's video, he goes into detail why. The models are in pretty good agreement with the setup of the high off to the east and trough over Texas. His words were something like it being a pretty basic steering setup. So I don't think any huge models swing from here on out. Levi mentioned some minor swings could occure, but nothing dramatic.

Gfs 18z is a tad west

[stormlover2013]

Hwrf slight shift west

[stormlover2013]

Nam shifted west

[Steve]

Nam shifted west

3km and 12km both get pretty far west and come up almost N almost to the TX/LA border before slightly weakening and getting an eastern component. NAMs hit the areas destroyed by Laura. I feel bad for everyone down there. All you can do is hope for the best and that with all the damage, people aren’t so far along that they have to completely start over. Maybe NAMs are too far west and they get a break.

[Steve]

ICON still at Cameron Parish too. Yikes

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 00800&fh=0