ATL: DELTA - Advisories

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
400 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2020

...DELTA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE EXPECTED
TO BEGIN ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 91.8W
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM SSE OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to Ocean Springs, Mississippi including Calcasieu
Lake, Vermilion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake
Borgne

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* High Island, TX to Sabine Pass
* East of Ocean Springs, Mississippi to the Mississippi/Alabama
border

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* East of Sabine Pass to Morgan City, Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass, Texas to Sabine Pass
* East of Morgan City, Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River,
including New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the mouth of the Pearl River to Bay St. Louis Mississippi

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 91.8 West. Delta is moving
toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion with a
a reduction in forward speed is expected today. A turn to the north
is forecast to occur by late tonight, followed by a north-
northeastward motion by Friday night. On the forecast track, the
center of Delta will move over the central Gulf of Mexico today, and
move inland within the hurricane warning area Friday afternoon or
Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Delta is expected to become
a major hurricane again by tonight. Some weakening is forecast
when Delta approaches the northern Gulf coast on Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Pecan Island to Port Fourchon, LA including Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft
Cameron, LA to Pecan Island, LA...4-7 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-6 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS...3-5 ft
Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...2-4 ft
High Island, TX to Cameron, LA including Calcasieu Lake...2-4 ft
MS/AL border to the AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...1-3 ft
Sabine Lake...1-3 ft
Port O'Connor, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay...1-3
ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area by Friday afternoon or evening, with tropical storm
conditions expected within this area earlier on Friday. Tropical
storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning
areas on Friday.

RAINFALL: Friday through Saturday, Delta is expected to
produce 5 to 10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 15
inches, for southwest into south central Louisiana. These rainfall
amounts will lead to significant flash, urban, small stream
flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

For extreme east Texas into northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas
and western Mississippi, Delta is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches
of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. These rainfall
amounts will lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated minor
river flooding.

As Delta moves farther inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally
higher amounts, is expected in the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic this
weekend.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible late tonight through Friday
over southern parts of Louisiana and Mississippi

SURF: Swells from Delta will begin to affect portions of the
northern and western Gulf coast later today. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
400 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2020

Satellite images indicate that Delta remains a well organized
hurricane with a central dense overcast feature and curved bands
beyond that. There is still no indication of an eye, however, in
geostationary satellite images. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters
were in Delta a few hours ago and toward the end of that mission,
they reported maximum flight-level winds of 102 kt and SFMR winds of
77 kt. Based on a blend of this data, the initial intensity was
increased to 85 kt at 0600 UTC. Since the cyclone appears to be
generally steady in strength since that time, the wind speed is held
at that value. Both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters will
be investigating Delta later today, and that data will help us
assess its strength and structure.

The track forecast reasoning is unchanged. Delta is currently
moving northwestward at 13 kt on the southwestern periphery of an
Atlantic subtropical ridge. The western portion of the ridge is
expected to weaken later today as a trough moves eastward across
the south-central United States. This change in the steering
pattern should cause Delta to turn northward by late tonight and
north-northeastward by Friday night. This motion should take the
core of the hurricane to the Louisiana coast in a little more than
36 hours (sometime Friday afternoon or evening). After landfall, a
turn to the northeast is forecast as a larger trough approaches
Delta from the west. The models are in very good agreement, and the
NHC track forecast is just an update of the previous one.

Delta is expected to continue gradually strengthening during the
next 24 hours while it remains over warm deep waters and in an
environment of low wind shear and a high amount of moisture. Based
on these favorable environmental conditions and the trend in the
models, Delta is forecast to regain major hurricane status by
tonight. Just prior to making landfall, the cyclone is forecast to
level off in strength or weaken slightly as it moves over the cooler
shelf waters and into somewhat less favorable atmospheric
conditions. Rapid weakening is forecast after Delta moves inland.
The intensity models are in fairly good agreement, and the NHC
intensity forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. It
should be noted that the NHC 1-2 day intensity forecasts are subject
to errors of around 1 Saffir-Simpson category.

The aircraft and fairly recent scatterometer data indicate that
Delta is gradually growing in size. This trend is expected to
continue as Delta approaches the Louisiana coast. The NHC wind
radii forecast follows a consensus of the global and hurricane
regional models.

Key Messages:

1. Delta is expected to grow in size as it approaches the northern
Gulf Coast, where life-threatening storm surge and dangerous
hurricane-force winds are likely beginning Friday, particularly for
portions of the Louisiana coast. Storm Surge and Hurricane Warnings
are in effect, and residents in these areas should follow advice
given by local officials and rush preparedness actions to
completion.

2. Significant flash, urban, small stream and minor to isolated
moderate river flooding is likely Friday and Saturday from portions
of the central Gulf Coast into portions of the Lower Mississippi
Valley. As Delta moves farther inland, heavy rainfall is expected in
the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic this weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 23.4N 91.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 24.6N 93.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 26.4N 93.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 28.8N 93.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 31.3N 92.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
60H 10/1800Z 33.3N 90.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 11/0600Z 34.6N 89.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2020

...NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORT DELTA HAS
STRENGTHENED...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE EXPECTED
TO BEGIN ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 92.7W
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM S OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning is now in effect for the Texas coast from
High Island to Sabine Pass.

A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for the Texas coast from High
Island to Sabine Pass.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Ocean Springs Mississippi including
Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas,
and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Morgan City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West of High Island to San Luis Pass Texas
* East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River,
including New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the mouth of the Pearl River to Bay St. Louis Mississippi

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 92.7 West. Delta is moving
toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion with a
reduction in forward speed is expected today. A turn toward the
north is forecast to occur by late tonight, followed by a north-
northeastward motion by Friday afternoon or Friday night. On the
forecast track, the center of Delta will move over the central Gulf
of Mexico today, over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico on Friday,
and then move inland within the hurricane warning area Friday
afternoon or Friday night.

Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105
mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is
forecast, and Delta is expected to become a major hurricane again
by tonight. Some weakening is possible as Delta approaches the
northern Gulf coast on Friday, with rapid weakening expected after
the center moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 968 mb (28.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Port Fourchon, LA including
Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft
Holly Beach, LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...4-7 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-6 ft
Sabine Pass to Holly Beach, LA...3-5 ft
Calcasieu Lake...3-5 ft
High Island, TX to Sabine Pass...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS...2-4 ft
Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to the AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...1-3 ft
Sabine Lake...1-3 ft
Port O'Connor, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay...
1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area by Friday afternoon or evening, with tropical storm
conditions expected within this area by early Friday. Tropical
storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning
areas on Friday, and are possible in the tropical storm watch area
Friday night.

RAINFALL: Friday through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 5
to 10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches,
from southwest into south-central Louisiana. These rainfall amounts
will lead to significant flash, urban, small stream flooding, along
with minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

For extreme east Texas into northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas
and western Mississippi, Delta is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches
of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. These rainfall
amounts will lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated minor
river flooding.

As Delta moves farther inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally
higher amounts, are expected in the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic
this weekend.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible late tonight through Friday
over southern parts of Louisiana and Mississippi

SURF: Swells from Delta will begin to affect portions of the
northern and western Gulf coast later today. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven



Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2020

Satellite imagery shows that Delta is better organized this
morning, with the center well embedded in a cold central dense
overcast and a hint of a eye developing in the overcast. Reports
from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
that the central pressure has fallen to 968 mb inside a 35 n mi wide
eye, along with flight-level and SFMR winds that support an initial
intensity of 90 kt.

The initial motion remains northwestward or 305/12 kt. The track
forecast is reasonably straightforward. During the next 12-24 h,
Delta should turn to the north between a mid- to upper-level ridge
over the Florida Peninsula and eastern Gulf of Mexico and a mid- to
upper-level level trough over the U.S. Southern Plains. This
should be followed by a north-northeastward motion that is expected
to bring the center near or over the northern Gulf coast, most
likely in southwestern Louisiana, in about 36 h. After landfall,
the cyclone should move northeastward through the Lower Mississippi
and Tennessee Valleys along the southern edge of the mid-latitude
westerlies until it dissipates. The track guidance is very tightly
clustered in terms of direction, and the new forecast track has
only minor tweaks from the previous one.

Shear, sea surface temperature, and moisture conditions appear
favorable for strengthening during the next 12-24 h or so, and
based on this Delta is expected to regain major hurricane strength.
Rapid intensification cannot be ruled out, although the various
rapid intensification indices do not suggest a high chance, and
the first 24 h of the forecast is already above the intensity
guidance. The global models forecast strong southwesterly shear
developing over the hurricane during the last 12 h before landfall,
and based on this some weakening is forecast. Rapid weakening is
expected after landfall, with Delta forecast to degenerate to a
remnant low by 72 h and dissipate shortly after that. It should be
noted that the NHC 1-2 day intensity forecasts are subject to errors
of around 1 Saffir-Simpson category.

Delta is expected to grow in size as it approaches the Louisiana
coast. The NHC wind radii forecast again follows a consensus of the
global and hurricane regional models.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is expected near and east of where
Delta makes landfall on Friday, and a Storm Surge Warning is in
effect from High Island, Texas, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi. The
highest inundation of 7 to 11 feet is expected somewhere between
Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge and Port Fourchon, Louisiana. Residents
in the warning area should promptly follow advice given by local
officials. The storm surge risk remains high despite the forecast
decrease in intensity before landfall since Delta is expected to
grow in size.

2. Hurricane-force winds are expected Friday afternoon and evening
somewhere within the Hurricane Warning area between High Island,
Texas, and Morgan City, Louisiana. Hurricane-force winds will also
spread inland across portions of southern Louisiana near the path of
Deltas center Friday evening and Friday night.

3. Significant flash flooding and minor to moderate river flooding
are likely in parts of Louisiana Friday and Saturday, with
additional flooding in portions of the central Gulf Coast into the
Lower Mississippi Valley.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 24.0N 92.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 25.4N 93.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 27.5N 93.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 29.8N 93.1W 90 KT 105 MPH...ON THE COAST
48H 10/1200Z 32.4N 91.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
60H 11/0000Z 34.0N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 11/1200Z 35.6N 87.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
100 PM CDT Thu Oct 08 2020

...DELTA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE EXPECTED
TO BEGIN ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 93.1W
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM S OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...21 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Ocean Springs Mississippi including
Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas,
and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Morgan City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West of High Island to San Luis Pass Texas
* East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River,
including New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the mouth of the Pearl River to Bay St. Louis Mississippi

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 93.1 West. Delta is moving
toward the northwest near 13 mph (21 km/h), and this motion with a
reduction in forward speed is expected this afternoon. A turn
toward the north is forecast to occur by late tonight, followed by a
north-northeastward motion by Friday afternoon or Friday night. On
the forecast track, the center of Delta will move over the western
Gulf of Mexico this afternoon, over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico
on Friday, and then move inland within the hurricane warning area
Friday afternoon or Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Delta is expected to become a
major hurricane again by tonight. Some weakening is possible as
Delta approaches the northern Gulf coast on Friday, with rapid
weakening expected after the center moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 966 mb (28.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Port Fourchon, LA including
Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft
Holly Beach, LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...4-7 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-6 ft
Sabine Pass to Holly Beach, LA...3-5 ft
Calcasieu Lake...3-5 ft
High Island, TX to Sabine Pass...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS...2-4 ft
Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to the AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...1-3 ft
Sabine Lake...1-3 ft
Port O'Connor, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay...
1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area by Friday afternoon or evening, with tropical storm
conditions expected within this area by early Friday. Tropical
storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning
areas on Friday, and are possible in the tropical storm watch area
Friday night.

RAINFALL: Friday through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 5
to 10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches,
from southwest into south-central Louisiana. These rainfall amounts
will lead to significant flash, urban, small stream flooding, along
with minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

For extreme east Texas into northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas
and western Mississippi, Delta is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches
of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. These rainfall
amounts will lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated minor
river flooding.

As Delta moves farther inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally
higher amounts, are expected in the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic
this weekend.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible late tonight through Friday
over southern parts of Louisiana and Mississippi

SURF: Swells from Delta will begin to affect portions of the
northern and western Gulf coast later today. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
400 PM CDT Thu Oct 08 2020

...DELTA REGAINS MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE EXPECTED
TO BEGIN ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 93.4W
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM S OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the Texas coast west
of San Luis Pass to Sargent.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Ocean Springs Mississippi including
Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas,
and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Morgan City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West of High Island to Sargent Texas
* East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River,
including New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the mouth of the Pearl River to Bay St. Louis Mississippi

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
near latitude 24.8 North, longitude 93.4 West. Delta is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion with a
reduction in forward speed is expected this evening. A turn toward
the north is forecast to occur late tonight, followed by a
north-northeastward motion Friday and Friday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Delta will move over the western Gulf of
Mexico this evening, over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico on
Friday, and then move inland within the hurricane warning area
Friday afternoon or Friday night.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185
km/h) with higher gusts. Delta is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is
possible tonight. Some weakening is possible as Delta approaches
the northern Gulf coast on Friday, with rapid weakening expected
after the center moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The minimum central pressure just reported by the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 959 mb (28.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Morgan City, LA including
Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft
Holly Beach, LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...5-8 ft
Sabine Pass to Holly Beach, LA...4-7 ft
Morgan City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...4-7 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...3-5 ft
Calcasieu Lake...3-5 ft
High Island, TX to Sabine Pass...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS...2-4 ft
Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to the AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...1-3 ft
Sabine Lake...1-3 ft
Port O'Connor, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay...
1-3 ft

It is important to note that small changes in the track, structure,
or intensity of Delta could have large impacts on where the highest
storm surge occurs. Users are urged to stay tuned for possible
changes and updates.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area by Friday afternoon or evening, with tropical storm
conditions expected within this area by early Friday. Tropical
storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning
areas on Friday, and are possible in the tropical storm watch area
Friday night.

RAINFALL: Friday through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 5
to 10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches,
from southwest into south-central Louisiana. These rainfall amounts
will lead to significant flash, urban, small stream flooding, along
with minor to major river flooding.

For extreme east Texas into northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas
and western Mississippi, Delta is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches
of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. These rainfall
amounts will lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated minor
river flooding.

As Delta moves farther inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally
higher amounts, are expected in the Tennessee Valley and Mid
Atlantic this weekend.

TORNADOES: There is a risk of a few tornadoes beginning late
tonight and continuing through Friday over southern portions of
Louisiana and Mississippi.

SURF: Swells from Delta will begin to affect portions of the
northern and western Gulf coast during the next several hours.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
400 PM CDT Thu Oct 08 2020

Delta is strengthening. In satellite imagery, an eye is now seen in
the cold cloud tops of the central dense overcast. On the aircraft
side, just received reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft included 700-mb flight-level winds of 119 kt, SFMR
winds estimates near 90 kt, and a central pressure of 959 mb inside
a 30 n mi wide eye. A blend of the flight-level and SFMR wind
estimates give an initial intensity of 100 kt, and Delta is again a
major hurricane.

The initial motion is now northwestward or 320/10 kt. There is no
change to the track forecast philosophy and little change to the
track forecast from the previous advisory. During the next 12-24 h,
Delta should turn to the north between a mid- to upper-level ridge
over the Florida Peninsula and eastern Gulf of Mexico and a mid- to
upper-level level trough over the U.S. Southern Plains. This should
be followed by a north-northeastward motion that is expected to
bring the center near or over the northern Gulf coast, most likely
in southwestern Louisiana, in about 30 h. After landfall, the
cyclone should move northeastward through the Lower Mississippi and
Tennessee Valleys along the southern edge of the mid-latitude
westerlies until it dissipates. The track guidance remains very
tightly clustered in terms of direction, and the new forecast track
is near the various consensus models.

Shear, sea surface temperature, and moisture conditions appear
favorable for strengthening during the next 12 h or so, and based on
this additional intensification is expected tonight. A short period
of rapid intensification remains possible given current trends,
although the various rapid intensification indices are not
enthusiastic about the possibilities of this, After 12 h, the
global models again forecast strong southwesterly shear developing
over the hurricane before landfall, and based on this some weakening
is forecast. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall. The
system is expected to weaken to a depression no later than 60 h and
degenerate to a remnant low by 72 h, with dissipation following
shortly thereafter. The intensity forecast lies at or above the
upper edge of the intensity guidance.

Recent scatterometer data indicates that Delta is growing in size
as it approaches the Louisiana coast. The NHC wind radii forecast
again follows a combination of the data and the forecasts from
global and hurricane regional models.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is expected near and east of where
Delta makes landfall Friday, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect
from High Island, Texas, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi. The highest
inundation of 7 to 11 feet is expected somewhere between Rockefeller
Wildlife Refuge and Morgan City, Louisiana. Residents in the warning
area should promptly follow advice given by local officials. The
storm surge risk remains high despite the forecast decrease in
intensity before landfall since Delta is expected to grow in size.

2. Hurricane-force winds are expected Friday afternoon and evening
somewhere within the Hurricane Warning area between High Island,
Texas, and Morgan City, Louisiana. Hurricane force winds will also
spread inland across portions of southern Louisiana near the path of
Delta’s center Friday evening and Friday night.

3. Heavy rainfall will lead to significant flash flooding and minor
to major river flooding in parts of Louisiana Friday and Saturday.
Additional flooding is expected across portions of the central Gulf
Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 24.8N 93.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 26.3N 93.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 28.6N 93.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 31.0N 92.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
48H 10/1800Z 32.9N 91.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
60H 11/0600Z 34.3N 89.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 11/1800Z 35.8N 87.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
700 PM CDT Thu Oct 08 2020

...DELTA EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND A
LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.3N 93.5W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM S OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Ocean Springs Mississippi including
Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas,
and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Morgan City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West of High Island to Sargent Texas
* East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River,
including New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the mouth of the Pearl River to Bay St. Louis Mississippi

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
near latitude 25.3 North, longitude 93.5 West. Delta is moving
toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the
north is forecast overnight, followed by a north-northeastward
motion Friday and Friday night. On the forecast track, the center
of Delta will move over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico on Friday,
and then move inland within the hurricane warning area Friday
afternoon or Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Delta is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is possible tonight.
Some weakening is anticipated as Delta approaches the northern Gulf
coast on Friday, with rapid weakening expected after the center
moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km). NOAA buoy 42002, just to the north of Delta's
center, recently measured a sustained wind of 54 mph (86 km/h) and
a wind gust to 65 mph (104 km/h).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter
observations is 956 mb (28.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Morgan City, LA including
Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft
Holly Beach, LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...5-8 ft
Sabine Pass to Holly Beach, LA...4-7 ft
Morgan City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...4-7 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...3-5 ft
Calcasieu Lake...3-5 ft
High Island, TX to Sabine Pass...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS...2-4 ft
Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to the AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...1-3 ft
Sabine Lake...1-3 ft
Port O'Connor, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay...
1-3 ft

It is important to note that small changes in the track, structure,
or intensity of Delta could have large impacts on where the highest
storm surge occurs. Users are urged to stay tuned for possible
changes and updates.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area by Friday afternoon or evening, with tropical storm
conditions expected within this area by early Friday. Tropical
storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning
areas on Friday, and are possible within the tropical storm watch
area Friday night.

RAINFALL: Friday through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 5
to 10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches,
from southwest into south-central Louisiana. These rainfall amounts
will lead to significant flash, urban, small stream flooding, along
with minor to major river flooding.

For extreme east Texas into northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas
and western Mississippi, Delta is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches
of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. These rainfall
amounts will lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated minor
river flooding.

As Delta moves farther inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally
higher amounts, are expected in the Tennessee Valley and Mid-
Atlantic this weekend.

TORNADOES: There is a risk of a few tornadoes beginning late
tonight and continuing through Friday over southern portions of
Louisiana and Mississippi.

SURF: Swells from Delta will begin to affect portions of the
northern and western Gulf coast during the next several hours.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1000 PM CDT Thu Oct 08 2020

...DELTA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND A LIFE-THREATENING
STORM SURGE TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.7N 93.6W
ABOUT 285 MI...455 KM S OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Ocean Springs Mississippi including
Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas,
and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Morgan City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West of High Island to Sargent Texas
* East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River,
including New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the mouth of the Pearl River to Bay St. Louis Mississippi

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
near latitude 25.7 North, longitude 93.6 West. Delta is moving
toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward
the north is forecast overnight, followed by a north-northeastward
motion Friday and Friday night. On the forecast track, the center
of Delta will move over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico on Friday,
and then move inland within the hurricane warning area Friday
afternoon or Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h)
with higher gusts. Delta is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slight additional
strengthening is possible overnight. Weakening is expected to
begin as Delta approaches the northern Gulf coast on Friday, with
rapid weakening expected after the center moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km). NOAA buoy 42002 near Delta's northwestern eyewall
recently reported a sustained wind of 63 mph (101 km/h) and a wind
gust to 76 mph (122 km/h). The buoy also reported a significant
wave height just over 29 feet (almost 9 meters).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter Aircraft is 955 mb (28.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Morgan City, LA including
Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft
Holly Beach, LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...5-8 ft
Sabine Pass to Holly Beach, LA...4-7 ft
Morgan City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...4-7 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...3-5 ft
Calcasieu Lake...3-5 ft
High Island, TX to Sabine Pass...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS...2-4 ft
Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to the AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...1-3 ft
Sabine Lake...1-3 ft
Port O'Connor, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay...
1-3 ft

It is important to note that small changes in the track, structure,
or intensity of Delta could have large impacts on where the highest
storm surge occurs. Users are urged to stay tuned for possible
changes and updates.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area by Friday afternoon or evening, with tropical storm
conditions expected within this area by early Friday. Tropical
storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning
areas on Friday, and are possible within the tropical storm watch
area Friday night.

RAINFALL: Friday through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 5
to 10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches,
from southwest into south-central Louisiana. These rainfall amounts
will lead to significant flash, urban, small stream flooding, along
with minor to major river flooding.

For extreme east Texas into northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas
and western Mississippi, Delta is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches
of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. These rainfall
amounts will lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated minor
river flooding.

As Delta moves farther inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally
higher amounts, are expected in the Tennessee Valley and Mid-
Atlantic this weekend.

TORNADOES: There is a risk of a few tornadoes beginning late
tonight and continuing through Friday over southern portions of
Louisiana and Mississippi.

SURF: Swells from Delta are affecting portions of the northern and
western Gulf coast. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1000 PM CDT Thu Oct 08 2020

Reports from Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
investigating Delta indicate that the hurricane strengthened a
little more this evening. Peak flight-level winds were 120 kt, and
the highest SFMR-observed surface winds were 98 kt. Using a blend
of adjusted flight-level and surface wind observations, the current
intensity estimate is set at 105 kt. The eye became obscured on
satellite images a couple of hours ago, but recently it has become
apparent again. Delta could intensify a little more within the next
6 hours or so. Thereafter, sharply decreasing oceanic heat content,
significantly increasing west-southwesterly shear, and drier
mid-level air should cause weakening. The official intensity
forecast through landfall is above most of the model guidance.
However, even 24-hour tropical cyclone intensity forecasts are
still subject to an uncertainty of 1 Saffir-Simpson category, so
one should not focus on the exact official landfall intensity
forecast. Moreover, even if Delta weakens some, it will still have
serious storm surge impacts due to its large size.

Aircraft and satellite center fixes show that the hurricane is
gradually turning toward the right. The motion is now
north-northwestward, or 340/10 kt. Delta should turn northward on
Friday as it moves on the western side of a mid-tropospheric high
pressure area. Later on Friday, a 500-mb shortwave trough over the
southern United States is likely to cause the tropical cyclone to
turn north-northeastward and cross the northern Gulf of Mexico
coast. Delta should then move northeastward on the eastern side of
the trough over the southeastern United States for the next day or
two before dissipating near Kentucky. The official track forecast
is very close to the previous NHC track, and in very good agreement
with the various consensus track predictions.


Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is expected near and east of where
Delta makes landfall Friday, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect
from High Island, Texas, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi. The highest
inundation of 7 to 11 feet is expected somewhere between Rockefeller
Wildlife Refuge and Morgan City, Louisiana. Residents in the warning
area should promptly follow advice given by local officials. The
storm surge risk remains high despite the forecast decrease in
intensity before landfall since Delta is a relatively large
hurricane.

2. Hurricane-force winds are expected Friday afternoon and evening
somewhere within the Hurricane Warning area between High Island,
Texas, and Morgan City, Louisiana. Hurricane force winds will also
spread inland across portions of southern Louisiana near the path of
Deltas center Friday evening and Friday night.

3. Heavy rainfall will lead to significant flash flooding and minor
to major river flooding in parts of Louisiana Friday and Saturday.
Additional flooding is expected across portions of the central Gulf
Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 25.7N 93.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 27.4N 93.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 29.8N 93.0W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
36H 10/1200Z 32.0N 91.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 11/0000Z 33.5N 90.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 11/1200Z 34.9N 88.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/0000Z 36.5N 87.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Berg

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
400 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020

...MAJOR HURRICANE DELTA HEADED TOWARD SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND A LIFE-THREATENING
STORM SURGE TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.9N 93.7W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM S OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch from east of the mouth of the Pearl River
to Bay St. Louis Mississippi has been discontinued.

A Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued from Ocean Springs, MS
to Mouth of the Pearl River, LA including Lake Pontchartrain and
Lake Maurepas

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Mouth of the Pearl River Louisiana including
Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Morgan City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West of High Island to Sargent Texas
* East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River,
including New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
near latitude 26.9 North, longitude 93.7 West. Delta is moving
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue today followed by a north-northeastward motion
by tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Delta will move
inland within the hurricane warning area this evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Delta is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is expected to begin as Delta
approaches the northern Gulf coast later today, with rapid
weakening expected after the center moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters and NOAA buoy 42002 is 953 mb (28.15
inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Morgan City, LA including
Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft
Holly Beach, LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...5-8 ft
Sabine Pass to Holly Beach, LA...4-7 ft
Morgan City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...4-7 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...3-5 ft
Calcasieu Lake...3-5 ft
High Island, TX to Sabine Pass...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Mouth of the Pearl River...2-4 ft
Lake Borgne...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft
Mouth of the Pearl River, LA to the AL/FL border including Mobile
Bay...1-3 ft
Sabine Lake...1-3 ft
Port O'Connor, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay...1-3
ft

It is important to note that small changes in the track, structure,
or intensity of Delta could have large impacts on where the highest
storm surge occurs. Users are urged to stay tuned for possible
changes and updates.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area by this afternoon, with tropical storm conditions
expected within this area later this morning. Tropical
storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning
areas later today.

RAINFALL: Today through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 5 to
10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches, from
southwest into central Louisiana. These rainfall amounts will lead
to significant flash, urban, small stream flooding, along with minor
to major river flooding.

For extreme east Texas into northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas,
and western Mississippi, Delta is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches
of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. These rainfall
amounts will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and isolated minor
river flooding.

As the remnants of Delta move further inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain,
with locally higher amounts, are expected in the Tennessee Valley
and Mid Atlantic this weekend. There is a potential for 3 to 6
inches in the Southern Appalachians, which could lead to isolated
flash, urban, and small stream flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight over
southern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi.

SURF: Swells from Delta are affecting portions of the northern and
western Gulf coast. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
400 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020

Delta has been generally steady in strength during the past several
hours as it starts to close in on the southwestern Louisiana coast.
An eye has occasionally been evident in geostationary satellite
images, and deep convection remains quite intense around that
feature. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters recently found have been
investigating Delta this morning, and recently reported maximum
flight-level winds of 125 kt and peak SFMR surface winds of 99 kt.
Based on a blend of this data, the initial intensity is held at
105 kt. The hurricane appears to be leveling off in strength as
recent microwave passes show some asymmetry in the eyewall and
vertical tilt due to southwesterly shear. The core of the hurricane
passed very close to NOAA buoy 42002 a few hours ago, and the
pressure at the buoy fell to 953 mb. The buoy also reported peak
winds around 70 kt and a significant wave height of about 35 ft.

The major hurricane is now moving northward at 10 kt. The track
forecast models remain quite consistent. Delta is forecast to
continue moving northward today and then turn north-northeastward
tonight between a ridge over the western Atlantic and a trough over
the south-central United States. This motion is expected to take
the core of the hurricane to the Louisiana coast this evening.
After landfall, a turn to the northeast is forecast as a larger
trough moves eastward toward Delta, and that motion should continue
until the cyclone dissipates over Tennessee or Kentucky in a few
days. The models remain tightly clustered, and only minor tweaks
were made to the previous NHC track forecast.

Delta is expected to move over waters with progressively lower
oceanic heat content as it approaches the Louisiana coast. These
less favorable oceanic conditions combined with an increase in
southwesterly shear should cause Delta to weaken a little before
it moves onshore. Regardless, Delta is forecast to be near major
hurricane intensity when it makes landfall and significant impacts
are expected (see Key Messages below). After landfall, rapid
weakening is anticipated and Delta is forecast to fall below
hurricane strength tonight or early Saturday and dissipate in about
3 days.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is expected near and east of where
Delta makes landfall this evening, and a Storm Surge Warning is in
effect from High Island, Texas, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi. The
highest inundation of 7 to 11 feet is expected somewhere between
Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge and Morgan City, Louisiana. Residents
in the warning area should promptly follow advice given by local
officials. The storm surge risk remains high despite the forecast
decrease in intensity before landfall since Delta is a relatively
large hurricane.

2. Hurricane-force winds are expected this afternoon and evening
somewhere within the Hurricane Warning area between High Island,
Texas, and Morgan City, Louisiana. Hurricane force winds will also
spread inland across portions of southern Louisiana near the path of
Deltas center this evening and tonight.

3. Heavy rainfall will lead to significant flash flooding and minor
to major river flooding in parts of Louisiana today and Saturday.
Additional flooding is expected across portions of the central Gulf
Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 26.9N 93.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 28.6N 93.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 31.1N 92.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
36H 10/1800Z 32.9N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 11/0600Z 34.2N 89.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 11/1800Z 35.6N 87.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020

...CENTER OF DELTA MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
COAST...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND A LIFE-THREATENING
STORM SURGE TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 93.8W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSW OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to the Mouth of the Pearl River including
Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Morgan City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West of High Island to Sargent Texas
* East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River,
including New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 93.8 West. Delta is moving
toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north-
northeast is expected this afternoon, followed by a northeastward
motion during the day Saturday. On the forecast track, the center
of Delta should make landfall along the coast of southwestern
Louisiana later this afternoon or this evening, and then move across
central and northeastern Louisiana tonight and Saturday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Delta is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is expected before landfall,
with rapid weakening expected after the center moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km). NOAA buoy 42019 located west of the center of Delta
recently reported sustained winds of 49 mph (79 km/h) and a wind
gust of 60 mph (97 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 962 mb (28.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Morgan City, LA including
Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft
Holly Beach, LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...5-8 ft
Sabine Pass to Holly Beach, LA...3-5 ft
Morgan City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...4-7 ft
Calcasieu Lake...2-4 ft
High Island, TX to Sabine Pass...2-4 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to the Mouth of the Pearl River...2-4 ft
Lake Borgne...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft
Mouth of the Pearl River, LA to the AL/FL border including Mobile
Bay...1-3 ft
Sabine Lake...1-3 ft
Port O'Connor, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay...
1-3 ft

It is important to note that small changes in the track, structure,
or intensity of Delta could have large impacts on where the highest
storm surge occurs. Users are urged to stay tuned for possible
changes and updates.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area by this afternoon, with tropical storm conditions
beginning within this area in the next few hours. Tropical
storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning
areas during the next several hours.

RAINFALL: Today through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 5 to
10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches, from
southwest into central Louisiana. These rainfall amounts will lead
to significant flash, urban, small stream flooding, along with minor
to major river flooding.

For extreme east Texas into northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas,
and western Mississippi, Delta is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches
of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. These rainfall
amounts will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and isolated minor
river flooding.

As the remnants of Delta move further inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain,
with locally higher amounts, are expected in the Tennessee Valley
and Mid Atlantic this weekend. There is a potential for 3 to 6
inches in the Southern Appalachians, which could lead to isolated
flash, urban, and small stream flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight over
southern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi.

SURF: Swells from Delta are affecting portions of the northern and
western Gulf coast. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020

Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Delta has weakened a little since the last advisory.
The central pressure has risen to 962 mb, and the strongest 700-mb
flight-level winds reported by the NOAA plane were 107 kt. In
addition, SFMR wind estimates have been in the 85-95 kt range.
Based on these data, the initial intensity is lowered to 100 kt.

Delta is moving northward or 360/11 kt between a deep-layer ridge
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and a mid- to upper-level trough
over the U.S. Southern Plains. A turn toward the north-northeast
is expected during the next few hours, and the center is forecast
to cross the southwestern coast of Louisiana late this afternoon
or this evening. After landfall, a continued north-northeastward
motion should bring the center across central and northeastern
Louisiana by the 24 h point. Thereafter, Delta is expected to move
generally northeastward through the lower Mississippi and Tennessee
Valleys until it dissipates. The track forecast guidance remains
tightly clustered, and the new forecast track is little changed
from the previous forecast.

Increasing vertical shear and decreasing oceanic heat content along
the forecast track should cause Delta to continue to weaken before
landfall. However, there will still be significant impacts from
winds and storm surge (see Key Messages below). After landfall,
rapid weakening is anticipated, with Delta expected to weaken to a
tropical storm tonight and to a tropical depression by Saturday
afternoon or evening. The cyclone is forecast to dissipate
between 60-72 h based on the consensus of the global models.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is expected near and east of where
Delta makes landfall this evening, and a Storm Surge Warning is in
effect from High Island, Texas, to the Mouth of the Pearl River.
The highest inundation of 7 to 11 feet is expected somewhere
between Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge and Morgan City, Louisiana.
Water levels in this area will rise quickly this afternoon and
evening as Delta approaches and efforts to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

2. Hurricane-force winds are expected this afternoon and evening
within portions of the Hurricane Warning area, especially along the
coast of southwest Louisiana. Hurricane force winds will also
spread inland across portions of southern Louisiana near the path of
Deltas center this evening and tonight.

3. Heavy rainfall will lead to significant flash flooding and minor
to major river flooding in parts of Louisiana today and Saturday.
Additional flooding is expected across portions of the central Gulf
Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 28.0N 93.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 30.0N 93.0W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
24H 10/1200Z 32.2N 91.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
36H 11/0000Z 33.7N 90.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 11/1200Z 35.0N 88.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 12/0000Z 36.7N 86.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Delta Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1200 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020

...12 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING ONTO THE LOUISIANA COAST...

An automated observing site at Texas Point along the coast near the
Texas/Louisiana border recently reported sustained winds of 45 mph
(72 km/h) and a gust of 59 mph.

The Galveston buoy (42035) located about 25 miles (40 km) east of
Galveston, Texas, reported a peak sustained wind of 52 mph (83 km/h)
and a gust to 60 mph (96 km/h) within the past hour.


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 93.7W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SSW OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
100 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020

...DELTA NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA COAST...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE EXPECTED
IN THE LANDFALL AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 93.6W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSW OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to the Mouth of the Pearl River including
Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Morgan City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West of High Island to Sargent Texas
* East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River,
including New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
near latitude 28.7 North, longitude 93.6 West. Delta is now moving
toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion
should continue through Saturday morning. A turn toward the
northeast is expected later on Saturday. On the forecast track, the
center of Delta should make landfall along the coast of southwestern
Louisiana during the next several hours, and then move across
central and northeastern Louisiana tonight and Saturday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow weakening is expected before landfall, with rapid
weakening expected after the center moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km). The Texas Coastal Ocean Observation Network
station at Texas Point recently reported sustained winds of 50 mph
(80 km/h) and a wind gust of 57 mph (92 km/h). Lake Charles
Regional Airport recently reported a wind gust of 60 mph (96 km/h).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 963 mb (28.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Morgan City, LA including
Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft
Holly Beach, LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...5-8 ft
Sabine Pass to Holly Beach, LA...3-5 ft
Morgan City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...4-7 ft
Calcasieu Lake...2-4 ft
High Island, TX to Sabine Pass...2-4 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to the Mouth of the Pearl River...2-4 ft
Lake Borgne...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft
Mouth of the Pearl River, LA to the AL/FL border including Mobile
Bay...1-3 ft
Sabine Lake...1-3 ft
Port O'Connor, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay...
1-3 ft

It is important to note that small changes in the track, structure,
or intensity of Delta could have large impacts on where the highest
storm surge occurs. Users are urged to stay tuned for possible
changes and updates.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area this afternoon, with tropical storm conditions
already occuring. Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread
onshore within portions of the tropical storm warning areas during
the next several hours.

RAINFALL: Today through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 5 to
10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches, from
southwest into central Louisiana. These rainfall amounts will lead
to significant flash, urban, small stream flooding, along with minor
to major river flooding.

For extreme east Texas into northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas,
and western Mississippi, Delta is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches
of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. These rainfall
amounts will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and isolated minor
river flooding.

As the remnants of Delta move further inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain,
with locally higher amounts, are expected in the Tennessee Valley
and Mid Atlantic this weekend. There is a potential for 3 to 6
inches in the Southern Appalachians, which could lead to isolated
flash, urban, and small stream flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight over
southern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi.

SURF: Swells from Delta are affecting portions of the northern and
western Gulf coast. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Delta Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
300 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020

...3 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE...
...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF LOUISIANA AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...

A NOAA National Ocean Service water level gauge at Freshwater Canal
Locks, Louisiana, recently reported storm surge inundation of more
than 4.5 feet above ground level.

The Texas Coastal Ocean Observation Network station at Texas Point
recently reported sustained winds of 60 mph (97 km/h) and a wind
gust of 70 mph (113 km/h).

A wind gust to 55 mph (89 km/h) has been reported at the Jack
Brooks Regional Airport near Port Arthur, Texas, within the past
hour.

A wind gust of 60 mph (97 km/h) has been observed at Nederland,
Texas.

A WeatherFlow observing site near Cameron, Louisiana, recently
reported a wind gust to 51 mph (82 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CDT...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.1N 93.4W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
400 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020

...DELTA TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COAST
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE EXPECTED
IN THE LANDFALL AREA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 93.2W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM S OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to the Mouth of the Pearl River including
Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Morgan City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West of High Island to Sargent Texas
* East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River,
including New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
near latitude 29.3 North, longitude 93.2 West. Delta is moving
toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through Saturday morning. A motion toward the
northeast is then expected through Sunday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Delta should make landfall along the coast of
southwestern Louisiana during the next few hours, and then move
across central and northeastern Louisiana tonight and Saturday
morning. After that time, the system is forecast to moves across
northern Mississippi into the Tennessee Valley.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is possible before landfall, with rapid
weakening expected after landfall. Delta is forecast to weaken to
a tropical storm tonight and to a tropical depression on Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km). The Texas Coastal Ocean Observation Network station at
Texas Point recently reported sustained winds of 62 mph (100 km/h)
and a wind gust of 78 mph (126 km/h). The National Ocean Service
station at Calcasieu Pass, Louisiana, recently reported sustained
winds of 53 mph (85 km/h) and a wind gust of 64 mph (104 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches).
The National Ocean Service station at Calcasieu Pass recently
reported a pressure of 983.8 mb (29.05 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Morgan City, LA including
Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft
Holly Beach, LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...5-8 ft
Morgan City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...4-6 ft
Sabine Pass to Holly Beach, LA...3-5 ft
Calcasieu Lake...2-4 ft
High Island, TX to Sabine Pass...2-4 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to the Mouth of the Pearl River...2-4 ft
Lake Borgne...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft
Mouth of the Pearl River, LA to the AL/FL border including Mobile
Bay...1-3 ft
Sabine Lake...1-3 ft
Port O'Connor, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay...
1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area during the next few hours, with tropical storm
conditions already occuring. Tropical storm conditions will
continue to spread onshore within portions of the tropical storm
warning areas during the next several hours.

RAINFALL: Today through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 5 to
10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches, from
southwest into central Louisiana. These rainfall amounts will lead
to significant flash, urban, small stream flooding, along with minor
to major river flooding.

For extreme east Texas into northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas,
and western Mississippi, Delta is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches
of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. These rainfall
amounts will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and isolated minor
river flooding.

As the remnants of Delta move farther inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain,
with locally higher amounts, are expected in the Tennessee Valley
and Mid Atlantic this weekend. There is a potential for 3 to 6
inches in the Southern Appalachians, which could lead to isolated
flash, urban, and small stream flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this afternoon through
tonight over southern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi.

SURF: Swells from Delta are affecting portions of the northern and
western Gulf coast. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
400 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and
WSR-88D Doppler radar data indicate that Delta has weakened some
more since the last advisory. The eye structure on the radar has
become less organized, with about 50 percent of the eyewall
remaining in the northern semicircle. The aircraft reported maximum
700-mb flight-level winds have decreased to the 100-105 kt range,
along with maximum SFMR surface wind estimates in the 80-85 kt
range. In addition, the central pressure has risen to near 966 mb.
Based on these data, the initial intensity is lowered to 90 kt.

The initial motion is now north-northeastward or 015/12 kt, with the
hurricane moving between a deep-layer ridge over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico and a mid- to upper-level trough over the U.S. Southern
Plains. This motion should continue through the next 24 h or so,
followed by a turn toward the northeast as Delta or its remnants
move along the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies. While
the track guidance remains tightly clustered, the guidance is a
little faster than the previous run. So, the new track forecast is
similar in direction, but slightly faster than the previous one.
The forecast track has the center of Delta making landfall in
southwestern Louisiana in the next few hours and then moving across
central and northeastern Louisiana tonight and Saturday morning.
After that, the system should move across northern Mississippi into
the Tennessee Valley before it dissipates.

Increasing vertical shear and decreasing oceanic heat content along
the forecast track could cause a little more weakening in the last
few hours before landfall. However, there will still be
significant impacts from winds and storm surge (see Key Messages
below). After landfall, rapid weakening is anticipated, with Delta
expected to weaken to a tropical storm tonight and to a tropical
depression by Saturday afternoon. As in the last advisory, the
cyclone is forecast to dissipate between 60-72 h based on the
consensus of the global models.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is occurring and will continue near
and east of where Delta makes landfall this evening, and a Storm
Surge Warning is in effect from High Island, Texas, to the Mouth of
the Pearl River, Louisiana. The highest inundation of 7 to 11 feet
is expected somewhere between Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge and Morgan
City, Louisiana.

2. Hurricane-force winds are expected this afternoon and evening
within portions of the Hurricane Warning area, especially along the
coast of southwest Louisiana. Hurricane-force winds will also
spread inland across portions of southern Louisiana near the path of
Delta’s center this evening and tonight.

3. Heavy rainfall will lead to significant flash flooding and minor
to major river flooding in parts of Louisiana today and Saturday.
Additional flooding is expected across portions of the central Gulf
Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 29.3N 93.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 31.1N 92.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
24H 10/1800Z 33.1N 91.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 11/0600Z 34.4N 89.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 11/1800Z 35.9N 87.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 12/0600Z 37.6N 84.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Delta Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
500 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020

...5 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE...
...EYEWALL OF DELTA MOVING ONSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
LOUISIANA...

A NOAA National Ocean Service water level gauge at Freshwater Canal
Locks, Louisiana, recently reported storm surge inundation of over
7 feet above ground level.

A WeatherFlow observing site near Cameron, Louisiana, recently
reported a sustained wind of 58 mph (93 km/h) and a wind gust to
78 mph (125 km/h)

The Texas Coastal Ocean Observation Network station at Texas Point
recently reported sustained winds of 65 mph (105 km/h) and a wind
gust of 74 mph (119 km/h).

A wind gust to 71 mph (114 km/h) has been reported at the Jack
Brooks Regional Airport near Port Arthur, Texas, within the past
couple of hours.


SUMMARY OF 500 PM CDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 93.1W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SSE OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.58 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Delta Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
600 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020

...DELTA MAKES LANDFALL NEAR CREOLE LOUISIANA...

National Weather Service Doppler radar imagery, Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft data, and surface observations indicate
that Delta has made landfall near Creole, Louisiana, around 600 PM
CDT (2300 UTC) with estimated maximum sustained winds of 100 mph
(155 km/h). Delta is a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. The minimum central pressure estimated from
Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft data is 970 mb (28.64
inches).

A Florida Coastal Monitoring Tower near Lake Arthur, Louisiana,
recently reported a sustained wind of 77 mph (123 km/h) and a gust
to 96 mph (154 km/h).

A NOAA National Weather Service water level gauge at Freshwater
Canal Locks, Louisiana, recently reported storm surge inundation of
over 8 feet above ground level.


SUMMARY OF 600 PM CDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.8N 93.1W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM E OF CREOLE LOUISIANA
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM E OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Delta Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
400 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020

...DELTA CONTINUES MOVING INLAND...
...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS CONTINUE NEAR ITS
PATH...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.8N 91.8W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSE OF MONROE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued from Cameron to Port
Fourchon, Louisiana, including Vermilion Bay.

The Tropical Storm Warning along the coast from High Island Texas to
the mouth of the Pearl River, including New Orleans, Lake
Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

No coastal watches and warnings are in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Delta was
located near latitude 31.8 North, longitude 91.8 West. Delta is
moving toward the north-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A motion
toward the northeast is expected to begin later today and continue
through Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Delta
should move across northeastern Louisiana this morning and
then across northern Mississippi and into the Tennessee Valley
later today and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Delta is
expected to become a tropical depression later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center. A sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) with a gust
to 63 mph (102 km/h) was recently reported in Alexandria,
Louisiana. A sustained wind of 37 mph (59 mph) with a gust to 63
mph (102 km/h) was recently observed in Monroe, Louisiana.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: Water levels will continue to subside today along the
Louisiana coast. Consult products issued by your local National
Weather Service forecast office for additional information.

RAINFALL: For northern Louisiana, southeast Arkansas, and western
Mississippi, Delta is expected to produce an additional 2 to 5
inches of rain, with isolated storm totals of 10 inches. These
rainfall amounts will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and minor
river flooding.

As the remnants of Delta move further inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain,
with locally higher amounts, are expected in the Tennessee Valley
and Mid Atlantic through the weekend. There is a potential for 3 to
6 inches in the Southern Appalachians, which could lead to flash,
urban, small stream, along with isolated minor river flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across
eastern Mississippi, Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, and
western/central Georgia.

SURF: Swells from Delta are gradually subsiding along the northern
Gulf coast. Please consult products from your local weather office
for additional information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Zelinsky

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 23A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
700 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020

...DELTA NOW OVER NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS CONTINUE NEAR ITS
PATH...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.6N 91.3W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM E OF MONROE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

No coastal watches and warnings are in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Delta was
located near latitude 32.6 North, longitude 91.3 West. Delta is
moving toward the north-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A motion
toward the northeast is expected to begin later today and continue
through Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Delta
should move across northeastern Louisiana this morning and then
across northern Mississippi and into the Tennessee Valley later
today and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Delta is
expected to become a tropical depression later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center. Hawkins Field in Jackson, Mississippi recently
reported a wind gust of 51 mph (81 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 992 mb (29.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: Water levels will continue to subside today along the
Louisiana coast. Consult products issued by your local National
Weather Service forecast office for additional information.

RAINFALL: For northern Louisiana, southeast Arkansas, and western
Mississippi, Delta is expected to produce an additional 2 to 5
inches of rain, with isolated storm totals of 10 inches. These
rainfall amounts will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and minor
river flooding.

As the remnants of Delta move further inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain,
with locally higher amounts, are expected in the Tennessee Valley
and Mid Atlantic through the weekend. There is a potential for 3 to
6 inches in the Southern Appalachians, which could lead to flash,
urban, small stream, along with isolated minor river flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across
eastern Mississippi, Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, and
western/central Georgia.

SURF: Swells from Delta are gradually subsiding along the northern
Gulf coast. Please consult products from your local weather office
for additional information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Delta Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020

...DELTA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION OVER WESTERN MISSISSIPPI...
...HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.1N 90.8W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NNW OF JACKSON MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Delta
was located near latitude 33.1 North, longitude 90.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h),
and this motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward
speed through Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of
Delta should move across western and northern Mississippi today and
into the Tennessee Valley tonight and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected, and Delta is
expected to decay to a remnant low pressure area on Sunday.
Greenwood, Mississippi, recently reported a wind gust of 43 mph
(69 km/h), and an automated station near Monticello, Arkansas,
recently reported a wind gust of 41 mph (66 km/h).

The minimum central pressure estimated from surface observations is
994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

WIND: Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible this
afternoon over portions of northern Mississippi and southeastern
Arkansas.

STORM SURGE: Water levels will continue to subside today along the
Louisiana coast. Consult products issued by your local National
Weather Service forecast office for additional information.

RAINFALL: For eastern Arkansas and northern Mississippi, Delta is
expected to produce an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain, with
isolated storm totals of 10 inches. These rainfall amounts will lead
to flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding.

As the remnants of Delta move further inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain,
with locally higher amounts, are expected in northern Alabama and
the Tennessee Valley into the Mid-Atlantic through the weekend.
There is a potential for 3 to 6 inches in the Southern to Central
Appalachians, which could lead to flash, urban, small stream, along
with isolated minor river flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across parts of Alabama,
the Florida Panhandle, and western Georgia through early tonight.

SURF: Swells from Delta are gradually subsiding along the northern
Gulf coast. Please consult products from your local weather office
for additional information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last Public Advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Future information on this system can be
found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center
beginning at 4 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header
WTNT31 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Delta Advisory Number 25
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL262020
400 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020

...DELTA BECOMES A NON-TROPICAL LOW...
...HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.7N 90.0W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM WSW OF TUPELO MISSISSIPPI
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SW OF NASHVILLE TENNESSEE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Flood and Flash Flood watches remain in effect for portions of the
Mid-South and areas in and near the southern Appalachians.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Delta
was located near latitude 33.7 North, longitude 90.0 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19
km/h) and this motion is expected to become more east-northeasterly
on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast during the next 36 hours, and Delta's
surface low is expected to dissipate across West Virginia
late Sunday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible prior to
sunset over portions of Arkansas, Mississippi, and Alabama.

STORM SURGE: Water levels will continue to subside today along the
Louisiana coast. Consult products issued by your local National
Weather Service forecast office for additional information.

RAINFALL: In the Appalachian region of far northeast Georgia,
the western Carolinas, and western Virginia, the remnants of Delta
are expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain, which could lead to
flash, urban, small stream, and isolated minor river flooding.

From northern Alabama and the Tennessee Valley into the
Mid-Atlantic, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally higher
amounts, are expected. Minimal hydrologic impacts are expected.

Moderate to major river flooding will continue across the Calcasieu
and Vermilion river basins in Louisiana through much of next week.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across parts of Alabama,
the Florida Panhandle, and western Georgia through early tonight.

SURF: Swells from Delta are gradually subsiding along the northern
Gulf coast. Please consult products from your local weather office
for additional information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Roth

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 33.7N 90.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 11/0600Z 34.6N 88.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 11/1800Z 36.2N 85.9W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 12/0600Z 38.2N 82.4W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP