WPAC: Post-Tropical - Tropical Depression 94W

[Hayabusa]

94W.INVEST

[mrbagyo]

[mrbagyo]

94W INVEST 201011 0600 10.0N 132.5E WPAC 15 1002

[Hayabusa]

[euro6208]

EURO has been developing this for a few days now. Latest model run has it peaking at 982 mb, strongest run so far, before striking Vietnam.

[ElectricStorm]

The SCS has been quite active lately now with this one expected to track over there as well

[Hayabusa]

ABPW10 PGTW 120600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/120600Z-130600ZOCT2020//
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.2N
131.0E, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN 112291Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEAL A
BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION.
INVEST 94W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW
(<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
SOME AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 94W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
AND MAKE LANDFALL IN THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES BEFORE CONSOLIDATING
FURTHER IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[Hayabusa]

[Hayabusa]

WWJP27 RJTD 130000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 130000.
WARNING VALID 140000.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 10N 129E WNW SLOWLY.

[mrbagyo]

94W INVEST 201013 0000 11.0N 127.9E WPAC 20 1005

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.2N 131.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 127.9S, APPROXIMATELY
458 NM NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 130122Z METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE REVEAL A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH DISORGANIZED, BUT CONSOLIDATING FLARING CONVECTION.
INVEST 94W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW
(<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 94W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY
WESTWARD AND MAKE LANDFALL IN THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES BEFORE
CONSOLIDATING FURTHER IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[aspen]

The 12z GFS has this bottom out at 977 mbar just before landfall.

[mrbagyo]

Daet, Camarines Norte has already recorded 98 mm rainfall over the past 4 hours.

[euro6208]

WTPN21 PGTW 140700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.8N 123.6E TO 15.0N 115.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 140600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.9N 123.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.6N 124.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 123.2E, APPROXIMATELY 203 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 140101Z METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE REVEAL A CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION. INVEST 94W IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
GOOD WESTWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 94W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
GENERALLY WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES BEFORE CONSOLIDATING
FURTHER IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
150700Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.6N 118.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 118.4E, APPROXIMATELY
154 NM WEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL, PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST. A 150108Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS REVEALS A TIGHT CIRCULATION
EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER CONVERGENT AREA WITH A SMALL SWATH OF 20 TO
25 KNOT WINDS TO THE EAST. 94W IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH GENERALLY STRAIGHT-LINE FLOW PROVIDED MODERATE
OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE AT 29 TO 30 CELSIUS. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94W WILL TRACK GENERALLY WEST,
ACROSS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, WITH MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

[euro6208]

TPPN11 PGTW 150922

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94W (W OF PHILIPPINES)

B. 15/0850Z

C. 14.96N

D. 117.85E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.0/1.0 STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET/PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


MARTIN

[euro6208]

TPPN11 PGTW 152122

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94W (W OF PHILIPPINES)

B. 15/2100Z

C. 16.15N

D. 113.98E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO
CLASSIFY.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


YOUNG

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

TCFA cancelled

WTPN21 PGTW 160700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94W) CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/150651ZOCT20//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 150700). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 112.4E IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 109.7E, APPROXIMATELY 88 NM EAST OF DANANG,
VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A NEAR
FULLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE WEST. A 160201Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ
REVEALS LITTLE TO NO ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WITH A SMALL AREA OF
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LLCC. A 160046Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWS A
SMALL, WEAK CIRCULATION EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
BROADER, WEAK CIRCULATION. THE ASCAT PASS REVEALS 25 TO 30 KNOT
WINDS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF 94W WITH SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER (5 TO 10
KNOT) WINDS TO THE SOUTH. 94W IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
WITH DISORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28 TO 29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 94W WILL
REMAIN LARGELY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH SOME SLIGHT
CONSOLIDATION, BEFORE CONTINUING WEST, MOVING OVER VIETNAM. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. IN VIEW OF THE
UNFAVORABLE FORECAST FOR THIS SYSTEM, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 16.2N 112.4E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.