ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 93, 2020101118, , BEST, 0, 99N, 462W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 058, SPAWNINVEST, al752020 to al932020,

Thread that was the topic for this wave at Talking Tropics forum.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=121469

[kevin]

And so it begins. This one has already caused quite some discussion in the Talking Tropics threads. Could become something, especially if the part of this invest that is expected to split and enter the WCar develops.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located about 1000 miles east of the Windward
Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Some slow development of this system is possible during the next
couple of days while it moves generally westward near 15 mph.
Strong upper-level winds are expected to limit additional
development by midweek.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[ElectricStorm]

I doubt this does a whole lot in the near term but it will need to be watched further down the road

[blp]

It's 2020, no lull just reloading...

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1315320320212041728

[supercane4867]

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

A tropical wave located about 900 miles east of the Windward
Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Some slow development of this system is possible during the next
day or so while it moves generally westward near 15 mph. However,
strong upper-level winds are expected to limit additional
development by midweek.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[chaser1]

Here's what I see. 93L show's up well between the surface and roughly 750mb. There's no question that some level of rotational turning exists just above the surface. A combination of an unusually strong easterly surge pushing 93L briskly to the west, and moderate upper level westerly winds are clearly interrupting any convective continuity. These harsh conditions look like they will clearly become even less hospitable and 93L may well become unidentifiable during the next day or two. Upper level conditions appear to become much more favorable in the Central Caribbean beginning in about 96 hours or so. It appears to me that the EURO, ICON, and NAV-GEM want to take a weak lobe of energy from the northern axis of this wave and move what little 850mb identity northwestward over the Greater Antilles and then move it as a very weak feature WNW toward S. Florida. The EURO (and it's members) suggest a broad weak low that eventually migrates into the West-Central GOM. On the other hand, I am convinced that the feature which the GFS and GFS-Para are continually suggesting will form in the Southwest Caribbean and then generally move northward toward Cuba is the southern extension of 93L. I do not see any clear evidence of models developing a Central American gyre whatsoever (not that it particularly matters). Regardless, as per the GFS and GFS-Para.... genesis appears to initiate around 186 hours.

This seems like a very realistic outcome based on an assumption that 93L will remain weak enough and at a fairly low latitude to continue to push to the west. On another note, this would well fit within this season's fairly persistent W. Caribbean track pattern (Delta, Gamma, Marco, and Cristobal/BOC) for a system to develop and/or track generally northward from the region. And then of course, there's Climo as well. Looking at 10-14 days out it's ridiculous to speculate how well forecast models will predict whether the increasing upper level westerlies will remain in place suggesting that any storm moving into the S. GOM will immediately become decapitated, or whether a large upper anticyclone will expand northward in association with a well developed tropical cyclone to eventually threaten W. Cuba and Florida. I'll say this though, the earmark of this season has been fairly persistent strong high pressure in the far W. Atlantic easily as far west as the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, and Florida. In spite of historical events where a good number of tropical storms may have formed in the W. Caribbean just to track northeast and remain well south of Florida, I don't think that this seasons' pattern persistence suggests that would be the most likely outcome. I believe that "IF" long range genesis occurs (as GFS/GFS-Para suggest), then W. Cuba and W. Coast Florida may be in store for the 2020 Atlantic traveling Greek Festival

[Stormgodess]

EVERYBODY in Louisiana is so sick of this season!



https://www.facebook.com/zackfradellawx

[Aric Dunn]

So how is this still at 30% ? morning visible showing a sheared TD.....

ASCAT likely wont be able to resolve the small size, as we have seen all year...

interesting.

[chaser1]

Only thing I can think Aric, is that in spite of it's impressive appearance NHC must be thinking that vertical shear is nearly imminently soon about to rip it to shreds. If they're wrong though.....

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 12 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
about 750 miles east of the Windward Islands continue to show signs
of organization. Slow development of this system is possible
during the next day or so while it moves generally westward near 15
mph. Strong upper-level winds are expected to limit further
development by midweek.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

AL, 93, 2020101212, , BEST, 0, 121N, 501W, 30, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M

[cycloneye]

Visible loop from Real Earth.

https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/?produc ... HyT53X_Kk#

[cycloneye]

Interesting.

 https://twitter.com/JakeCarstens/status/1315660661905555456

[Aric Dunn]

Cycloneye beat me to it..

but looks like we "should" have a TS shortly.

[edu2703]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1315667133251104769

[cycloneye]

Looking ahead.

 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1315669867169710080

[northjaxpro]

Definite LLC which is closed. I do not see why NHC has not classified this as a TD, or even possibly a TS yet. The system has found a sweet spot for immediate short term development for sure!

[DestinHurricane]

Cycloneye beat me to it..

but looks like we "should" have a TS shortly.


https://i.ibb.co/FhvsT5d/Capture.png

https://i.ibb.co/wQZTPTB/Capture.png

I doubt NHC classifies it for another few days though.