ATL: EPSILON - Post-Tropical
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- cycloneye
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ATL: EPSILON - Post-Tropical
AL, 94, 2020101612, , BEST, 0, 311N, 542W, 20, 1013, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 120, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 062, SPAWNINVEST, al792020 to al942020
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
Oh boy, our fifth tropical threat of the year! Some models showing a hurricane which is interesting.
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Eyes: Emily '86, Dean '89, Felix '95, Gert '99, Fabian '03, Humberto '19, Paulette '20
Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
This already has the look of a disturbance that’ll develop soon. Hopefully it stays away from land and becomes a cool long-tracking mid-latitude hurricane like Epsilon ‘05. It could be a decent ACE generator depending on how strong it gets.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
- ElectricStorm
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
Just a thought... None of the 94Ls have developed this year... But I think this one will end that streak
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
Visible Real Earth loop shows it is comming together nicely.
https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/?produc ... HyT53X_Kk#
https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/?produc ... HyT53X_Kk#
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- cainjamin
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
Looking really good this morning. Kind of looks like Andrea from last year already.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
Based on how good this is looking and the increased model support, this could be upgraded to something like 40/70 for the 2pm TWO.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
The precipitation and cloudiness are concentrated in its northern and eastern flanks.
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- AnnularCane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
cainjamin wrote:Looking really good this morning. Kind of looks like Andrea from last year already.
That may be the biggest compliment Andrea ever got.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
Shower activity associated with a broad non-tropical low pressure
system located about 600 miles east-southeast of Bermuda is
continuing to become better organized, and satellite wind data
indicates that the circulation has become somewhat better defined.
Additional development of this system is expected, and a
subtropical or tropical depression could form during the next
few days while the low meanders over the central Atlantic well to
the southeast of Bermuda.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
system located about 600 miles east-southeast of Bermuda is
continuing to become better organized, and satellite wind data
indicates that the circulation has become somewhat better defined.
Additional development of this system is expected, and a
subtropical or tropical depression could form during the next
few days while the low meanders over the central Atlantic well to
the southeast of Bermuda.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
This looks like it’s on the cusp of being classified. Since the odds only went up to 40/60 at 2pm and 94L is looking super close to becoming Epsilon, perhaps the NHC bumps up its odds to 70/90 at 8pm and either initiates advisories at 11pm, or bumps it to 90/90 at 2am and waits until 5am tomorrow.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
Seems to be closed or close to it.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
Looks a lot better than 40/60 to me. It predict those numbers are higher again at 11pm
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
If this was close to land, I'd be willing to bring out advisories now. However, since this is no threat to land, there is no reason to rush until it is crystal clear.
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- Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
The system is wrapping wround the center when I saw the Windy.com satellite at 4, it's looking better than this morning (8:20 AM). The GFS model is still on the Gyre in the SW Caribbean, the latest pressure on the gyre that is expected to develop is 940 over Cuba.
[img]externalfile:drive-eeb79cc2d86b751497e68dea676378dabbdd9988/root/%20INVEST%2094L%20at%204PM%20CDT.png[/img]
The GFS model is also showing Future 95L in the Caribbean.
[img]externalfile:drive-eeb79cc2d86b751497e68dea676378dabbdd9988/root/2%20systems%20possible.png[/img]
[img]externalfile:drive-eeb79cc2d86b751497e68dea676378dabbdd9988/root/%20INVEST%2094L%20at%204PM%20CDT.png[/img]
The GFS model is also showing Future 95L in the Caribbean.
[img]externalfile:drive-eeb79cc2d86b751497e68dea676378dabbdd9988/root/2%20systems%20possible.png[/img]
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- Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
Iceresistance wrote:The system is wrapping wround the center when I saw the Windy.com satellite at 4, it's looking better than this morning (8:20 AM). The GFS model is still on the Gyre in the SW Caribbean, the latest pressure on the gyre that is expected to develop is 940 over Cuba.
[url]externalfile:drive-eeb79cc2d86b751497e68dea676378dabbdd9988/root/%20INVEST%2094L%20at%204PM%20CDT.png[/url]
The GFS model is also showing Future 95L in the Caribbean.
[url]externalfile:drive-eeb79cc2d86b751497e68dea676378dabbdd9988/root/2%20systems%20possible.png[/url]
Well, I would like to have images here. . . (They are very useful!)
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
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- Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
aspen wrote:Seems to be closed or close to it.
https://i.imgur.com/kyAWVzF.png
It does look like it is closed
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
CrazyC83 wrote:If this was close to land, I'd be willing to bring out advisories now. However, since this is no threat to land, there is no reason to rush until it is crystal clear.
Or with Recon, Andrea would not have been named without Recon in May 2019.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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