* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* EPSILON AL272020 10/21/20 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 80 83 85 84 83 83 85 85 86 84 82 72 64 61 64 57 49
V (KT) LAND 80 83 85 84 83 83 85 85 86 84 82 72 64 61 64 57 49
V (KT) LGEM 80 84 84 83 81 80 80 78 77 74 69 60 56 56 55 51 48
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP
SHEAR (KT) 9 5 4 9 10 10 14 17 19 10 17 29 54 57 20 10 11
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -5 0 0 0 -4 5 1 4 4 8 19 6 7 -1 0
SHEAR DIR 147 54 325 309 272 204 189 168 149 169 177 206 225 184 129 154 224
SST (C) 26.4 26.2 25.9 25.6 25.7 25.8 25.8 25.5 26.2 24.3 23.6 20.1 15.9 12.2 11.0 10.5 10.2
POT. INT. (KT) 117 114 111 109 110 110 110 108 117 103 101 88 79 74 70 65 62
ADJ. POT. INT. 102 98 96 93 94 94 92 91 100 91 92 83 76 72 68 63 60
200 MB T (C) -55.1 -54.7 -54.8 -55.1 -55.3 -55.1 -55.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.6 -55.1 -55.6 -54.1 -49.7 -49.2 -49.6 -50.2
200 MB VXT (C) 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.2 1.2 0.8 -0.1 1.4 2.3 2.4 2.8
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 7 8 8 6 6 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
700-500 MB RH 42 41 41 46 49 48 50 48 48 49 49 44 34 35 66 73 77
MODEL VTX (KT) 34 34 35 34 35 35 38 40 43 43 43 40 39 42 48 44 39
850 MB ENV VOR 177 175 177 170 160 119 94 97 92 89 81 123 179 379 374 342 292
200 MB DIV 62 36 1 25 18 30 55 68 97 72 70 65 63 39 61 46 33
700-850 TADV 10 3 -1 1 11 3 3 3 0 20 18 13 -125 -170 -1 -15 -31
LAND (KM) 1374 1365 1361 1413 1467 1314 1180 1050 893 792 646 741 1406 931 575 543 651
LAT (DEG N) 28.9 29.2 29.5 30.2 30.8 32.1 33.4 34.6 36.4 38.6 40.9 43.9 47.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 58.7 59.4 60.1 60.4 60.7 61.3 61.3 61.4 60.6 57.6 52.6 44.5 34.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 7 7 7 6 8 13 19 28 37 41 39 27 11 5
HEAT CONTENT 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 752 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -14. -20. -25. -30. -33. -37. -41. -45. -48. -51. -53.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 4. -0. -6. -8. -7. -7.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 6.
PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -2. -5. -7.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -0. -0. 2. 4. 7. 7. 7. 1. -1. 2. 8. 3. -3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 4. 3. 3. 5. 5. 6. 4. 2. -8. -16. -19. -16. -23. -31.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 28.9 58.7
** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL272020 EPSILON 10/21/20 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.82 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.56 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 528.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.39 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 16.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 59.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.40 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 3.0% 5.4% 3.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0%
Bayesian: 6.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 3.0% 1.9% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
DTOPS: 7.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL272020 EPSILON 10/21/20 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL272020 EPSILON 10/21/2020 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 7 10( 16) 9( 24) 9( 31) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 83 85 84 83 83 85 85 86 84 82 72 64 61 64 57 49
18HR AGO 80 79 81 80 79 79 81 81 82 80 78 68 60 57 60 53 45
12HR AGO 80 77 76 75 74 74 76 76 77 75 73 63 55 52 55 48 40
6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 69 69 71 71 72 70 68 58 50 47 50 43 35
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR 80 83 74 68 65 64 66 66 67 65 63 53 45 42 45 38 30
IN 12HR 80 83 85 76 70 66 68 68 69 67 65 55 47 44 47 40 32
* ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* EPSILON AL272020 10/21/20 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 80 83 85 84 83 83 85 85 86 84 82 72 64 61 64 57 49
V (KT) LAND 80 83 85 84 83 83 85 85 86 84 82 72 64 61 64 57 49
V (KT) LGEM 80 84 84 83 81 80 80 78 77 74 69 60 56 56 55 51 48
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP
SHEAR (KT) 9 5 4 9 10 10 14 17 19 10 17 29 54 57 20 10 11
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -5 0 0 0 -4 5 1 4 4 8 19 6 7 -1 0
SHEAR DIR 147 54 325 309 272 204 189 168 149 169 177 206 225 184 129 154 224
SST (C) 26.4 26.2 25.9 25.6 25.7 25.8 25.8 25.5 26.2 24.3 23.6 20.1 15.9 12.2 11.0 10.5 10.2
POT. INT. (KT) 117 114 111 109 110 110 110 108 117 103 101 88 79 74 70 65 62
ADJ. POT. INT. 102 98 96 93 94 94 92 91 100 91 92 83 76 72 68 63 60
200 MB T (C) -55.1 -54.7 -54.8 -55.1 -55.3 -55.1 -55.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.6 -55.1 -55.6 -54.1 -49.7 -49.2 -49.6 -50.2
200 MB VXT (C) 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.2 1.2 0.8 -0.1 1.4 2.3 2.4 2.8
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 7 8 8 6 6 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
700-500 MB RH 42 41 41 46 49 48 50 48 48 49 49 44 34 35 66 73 77
MODEL VTX (KT) 34 34 35 34 35 35 38 40 43 43 43 40 39 42 48 44 39
850 MB ENV VOR 177 175 177 170 160 119 94 97 92 89 81 123 179 379 374 342 292
200 MB DIV 62 36 1 25 18 30 55 68 97 72 70 65 63 39 61 46 33
700-850 TADV 10 3 -1 1 11 3 3 3 0 20 18 13 -125 -170 -1 -15 -31
LAND (KM) 1374 1365 1361 1413 1467 1314 1180 1050 893 792 646 741 1406 931 575 543 651
LAT (DEG N) 28.9 29.2 29.5 30.2 30.8 32.1 33.4 34.6 36.4 38.6 40.9 43.9 47.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 58.7 59.4 60.1 60.4 60.7 61.3 61.3 61.4 60.6 57.6 52.6 44.5 34.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 7 7 7 6 8 13 19 28 37 41 39 27 11 5
HEAT CONTENT 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 752 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -14. -20. -25. -30. -33. -37. -41. -45. -48. -51. -53.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 4. -0. -6. -8. -7. -7.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 6.
PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -2. -5. -7.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -0. -0. 2. 4. 7. 7. 7. 1. -1. 2. 8. 3. -3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 4. 3. 3. 5. 5. 6. 4. 2. -8. -16. -19. -16. -23. -31.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 28.9 58.7
** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL272020 EPSILON 10/21/20 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.82 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.56 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 528.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.39 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 16.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 59.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.40 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 3.0% 5.4% 3.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0%
Bayesian: 6.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 3.0% 1.9% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
DTOPS: 7.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL272020 EPSILON 10/21/20 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL272020 EPSILON 10/21/2020 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 7 10( 16) 9( 24) 9( 31) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 83 85 84 83 83 85 85 86 84 82 72 64 61 64 57 49
18HR AGO 80 79 81 80 79 79 81 81 82 80 78 68 60 57 60 53 45
12HR AGO 80 77 76 75 74 74 76 76 77 75 73 63 55 52 55 48 40
6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 69 69 71 71 72 70 68 58 50 47 50 43 35
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR 80 83 74 68 65 64 66 66 67 65 63 53 45 42 45 38 30
IN 12HR 80 83 85 76 70 66 68 68 69 67 65 55 47 44 47 40 32