WPAC: GONI - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#921 Postby Thon1357 » Sun Nov 01, 2020 1:38 am

CrazyC83 wrote:
Thon1357 wrote:Good thing Goni is done with Legazpi as of now. Cam Sur is next. It's a really strong storm but I think it didn't beat Durian in 2006. More on wind and lesser rain. Maybe it helped a lot that Goni was moving fast. It baffles me that PAGASA reported 310kph gustiness when it made the second landfall in Tiwi. Maybe it managed to still strengthen while crossing the water from Catanduanes


Was the 310 km/h an estimate, or actually recorded?


I'm not sure but that was mentioned in their 8am severe weather bulletin over the local radio. The highest wind registered by PAGASA in Legazpi was 198kph
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#922 Postby euro6208 » Sun Nov 01, 2020 1:56 am

4 confirmed dead in Albay province.
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#923 Postby Ed_2001 » Sun Nov 01, 2020 2:02 am

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The answer my friend, is blowing in the wind...

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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#924 Postby tatlopuyo » Sun Nov 01, 2020 3:33 am

Did goni crossed batangas-mindoro area already? Just basing on what im seeing on satellite image..


https://meteologix.com/ph/satellite/phi ... .html#play
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#925 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Nov 01, 2020 3:36 am

tatlopuyo wrote:Did goni crossed batangas-mindoro area already? Just basing on what im seeing on satellite image..


https://meteologix.com/ph/satellite/phi ... .html#play


not yet, I think that's the sheared Mid level circulation.
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#926 Postby tatlopuyo » Sun Nov 01, 2020 3:39 am

Ic. Cause based on the loop it seems like its spinning.
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#927 Postby tatlopuyo » Sun Nov 01, 2020 4:04 am

Latest fix from jtwc confirms what im seeing?

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp2220fix.txt
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#928 Postby qscdefb » Sun Nov 01, 2020 4:05 am

TorSkk wrote:Since when does SAB use 7.0 for CDG embedded eyes?


TXPQ22 KNES 311859
TCSWNP

A. 22W (GONI)

B. 31/1730Z

C. 13.8N

D. 125.0E

E. ONE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T8.0/8.0

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA. WMG
EYE IS SURROUNDED BY CDG AND EMBEDDED IN CDG RESULTING IN A DT OF 8.0
AFTER 1.0 IS ADDED FOR THE EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET AND PT ARE 8.0. FT
IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIBLER


2014, it was first used on Typhoon Hagupit, giving DT=7.5 when there was an MG eye embedded in CDG.
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#929 Postby dexterlabio » Sun Nov 01, 2020 5:04 am

Not only land interaction but also mid level shear blasted Goni.
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#930 Postby tatlopuyo » Sun Nov 01, 2020 5:07 am

Beijing(nmc) also have goni already leaving landmass. Pag-asa and jma have different positions though. Pag-asa have it hitting southern batangas in the coming hours while jma have it at quezon going to batangas-cavite in a few hours. Whats accurate?
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#931 Postby euro6208 » Sun Nov 01, 2020 5:32 am

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (GONI) WARNING
NR 018//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 22W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 106 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
ERODED AS IT DRAGGED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ISLANDS OF
LUZON. CENTRAL CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE GREATLY WARMED AND
FEEDER BANDS HAVE BECOME FRAGMENTED. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI AND COMPOSITE
RADAR LOOPS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75KTS IS DEDUCED FROM
NEARBY WIND AND MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OBSERVATIONS. UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE MARGINAL WITH MODERATE (20-25KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) PARTIALLY OFFSET BY GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW.
THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 22W WILL TRACK MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF MANILA, AS THE STR RECEDES WESTWARD, AND EXIT INTO
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) JUST BEFORE TAU 12. AFTER TAU 24,
THE STR WILL REBUILD AND DRIVE THE SYSTEM ON A WESTWARD TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. THE MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS COMBINED WITH FRICTIONAL EFFECTS FROM THE ISLANDS
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TY 22W TO 65KTS BY TAU 12. AFTERWARD,
THE ADDITION OF COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) IN THE
SCS WILL AID IN WEAKENING THE SYSTEM TO 50KTS BY TAU 36.
AFTER TAU 36, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN A QUASI-EQUILIBRIUM AS
ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW IS OFFSET BY MODERATE VWS AND COOL SST,
SUSTAINING THE INTENSITY AT 50KTS UP TO TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODELS
ARE IN FAIRLY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH GRADUAL, EVEN SPREADING TO
210NM AT TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TY GONI WILL CONTINUE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE SAME STR, MAKE LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN VIETNAM NEAR
QUI NOHN SHORTLY AFTER TAU 96. COOLING SST AND LAND INTERACTION
WILL PRIMARILY ERODE THE SYSTEM TO 25KTS BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE EVENLY TO OVER 500NM BY TAU 120. IN
VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION
OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS LAID ALONG THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#932 Postby Shell Mound » Sun Nov 01, 2020 5:37 am

dexterlabio wrote:Not only land interaction but also mid level shear blasted Goni.

Yes, the shear finally arrived on the scene, albeit too late for Catanduanes, unfortunately, as Goni clearly intensified all the way up till landfall on that island.

It’s truly remarkable to see such an intense system unravel so soon after landfall, almost as rapidly as it “spun up” earlier in its lifespan. Meteorology amazes.
Last edited by Shell Mound on Sun Nov 01, 2020 5:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#933 Postby dexterlabio » Sun Nov 01, 2020 5:40 am

tatlopuyo wrote:Beijing(nmc) also have goni already leaving landmass. Pag-asa and jma have different positions though. Pag-asa have it hitting southern batangas in the coming hours while jma have it at quezon going to batangas-cavite in a few hours. Whats accurate?


Best way to confirm is the latest MW imagery. I really feel like Goni has decoupled. The "center" with the bulk of convection that is already in SCS might just be the mid-level center, but the real center or low-level center is still somewhere in Southern Luzon area. I also thought that the MLC was the actual center but I realized that it was moving way too fast.
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#934 Postby ManilaTC » Sun Nov 01, 2020 6:07 am

Metro Manila sure dodged a bullet... If there were no wind shear the structure would have remained solid... With slight weakening as Haiyan exhibited after crossing Leyte...
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#935 Postby tatlopuyo » Sun Nov 01, 2020 6:10 am

Wind have somehow calmdown here in cavite. Friends also from laguna at batangas also said wind have calm down a bit. Worst wind was earlier around 4-6pm
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#936 Postby kevin » Sun Nov 01, 2020 6:18 am

How strong do you think Goni really was at its peak? I can imagine that if recon in the area existed they would have found a 880s mbar intensity, Goni's sat images were absolutely crazy. Certainly one of the most 'perfect' looking storms since Haiyan.
Last edited by kevin on Sun Nov 01, 2020 8:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#937 Postby doomhaMwx » Sun Nov 01, 2020 6:39 am

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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#938 Postby Meteophile » Sun Nov 01, 2020 7:11 am

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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#939 Postby NotoSans » Sun Nov 01, 2020 8:09 am

Goni's structure has basically collapsed thanks to strong shear. One noteworthy point is that shear started increasing before landfall (~20kt at 18Z when the peak intensity was reached), and this is part of the reason why models predict weakening before landfall. The ground truth, as everyone is aware of, is the opposite. Another example of intensification under moderate shear environment, perhaps?
 https://twitter.com/squirtleinhk/status/1322888043674525696


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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#940 Postby doomhaMwx » Sun Nov 01, 2020 8:10 am


Makes you wonder how worse the damage could be south of Gigmoto. Look at all those defoliated trees.
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