WPAC: GONI - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
ElectricStorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4493
Age: 23
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK

Re: WPAC: GONI - Tropical Storm

#961 Postby ElectricStorm » Sun Nov 01, 2020 7:55 pm

wxman57 wrote:Good scatterometer of Goni at 21Z. Looks like max winds 20-25 kts in the poorly-defined center with no squalls anywhere near it. About 25 kts for Atsani to the east.

What do you think Goni peaked at?
0 likes   
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.

Boomer Sooner!

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6044
Age: 32
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: WPAC: GONI - Tropical Storm

#962 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Nov 01, 2020 9:00 pm

Not what it once was.

Image
0 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: GONI - Tropical Storm

#963 Postby euro6208 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:07 am

16 confirmed dead now.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
Nancy Smar
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1081
Age: 23
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2017 10:03 pm

Re: WPAC: GONI - Tropical Storm

#964 Postby Nancy Smar » Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:44 am

22W GONI 201102 0600 15.3N 118.0E WPAC 30 1004
0 likes   

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3613
Age: 31
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: WPAC: GONI - Tropical Storm

#965 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Nov 02, 2020 2:54 am

0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3613
Age: 31
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: WPAC: GONI - Tropical Storm

#966 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Nov 02, 2020 3:00 am

The twitter user is from PAGASA whose hometown is Catanduanes

 https://twitter.com/arielrojas__/status/1323172582330310656


0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Cunxi Huang
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 323
Age: 25
Joined: Thu Sep 26, 2013 12:17 pm
Location: San Luis Obispo, CA

Re: WPAC: GONI - Tropical Storm

#967 Postby Cunxi Huang » Mon Nov 02, 2020 3:35 am

Serious damage in Tiwi, Albay. It's somehow interesting that the damage here looks much worse than those in Virac.

 https://twitter.com/repzaldyco/status/1323175755279298560


4 likes   
2006 SuTY SAOMAI | 2009 TY LINFA | 2010 TY FANAPI | 2010 SuTY MEGI | 2016 SuTY MERANTI | 2019 SuTY LEKIMA
DO NOT use my posts for life and death decisions. For official information, please refer to products from your RSMC and national weather agency.

User avatar
Ed_2001
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 228
Age: 22
Joined: Wed Jun 21, 2017 11:39 pm
Location: Santa Barbara, CA>>Tampa, FL

Re: WPAC: GONI - Tropical Storm

#968 Postby Ed_2001 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 4:11 am

Cunxi Huang wrote:Serious damage in Tiwi, Albay. It's somehow interesting that the damage here looks much worse than those in Virac.

https://twitter.com/repzaldyco/status/1323175755279298560


Yep and that is the second landfall. Now the brand new Damage pics in Virac are certainly severe but not Haiyan level (thankfully), but damage surveys are just getting started and I'd also like to see updates from Bato and Baras, I think those two places may have fared worse than Virac wind wise being on the Southeastern coast and the first to get pummeled by the Northern eyewall.
2 likes   
The answer my friend, is blowing in the wind...

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3613
Age: 31
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: WPAC: GONI - Tropical Storm

#969 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:57 am

2 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

ejeraldmc
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 121
Joined: Thu Oct 14, 2010 6:27 pm
Location: Batangas

Re: WPAC: GONI - Tropical Storm

#970 Postby ejeraldmc » Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:21 am



Any pressure readings from there?
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3613
Age: 31
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: WPAC: GONI - Tropical Storm

#971 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:30 am

ejeraldmc wrote:


Any pressure readings from there?



No report yet. I think the pressure reading if ever it will be released would come from the Synoptic station in Downtown Virac.

The PAGASA radar is on top of a hill in Brgy. Buenavista, Bato, Catanduanes - maybe we'll get wind reading? I saw an aerovane anemometer when I went to that radar site in Feb 2018
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3613
Age: 31
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: WPAC: GONI - Tropical Storm

#972 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:08 am

2 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: GONI - Tropical Storm

#973 Postby euro6208 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:44 am

Too bad there weren't any ground truth obs from ground zero. Well known storm chasers couldn't travel because of the pandemic.

I'm surprised there aren't any real storm chasers in a country that gets hit every year.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3613
Age: 31
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: WPAC: GONI - Tropical Storm

#974 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:55 am

We should wait for the ground report from this Synoptic Station
Image
Image
4 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138789
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: WPAC: GONI - Tropical Storm

#975 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:58 am

euro6208 wrote:16 confirmed dead now.


Any link to that information?
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: GONI - Tropical Storm

#976 Postby euro6208 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:00 am

cycloneye wrote:
euro6208 wrote:16 confirmed dead now.


Any link to that information?


It's all over the internet and here's one of them.

16 dead

Update: Death toll now up to 20!
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

Meteophile
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 50
Joined: Tue May 12, 2020 3:38 pm

Re: WPAC: GONI - Tropical Storm

#977 Postby Meteophile » Mon Nov 02, 2020 2:42 pm

Virac was shielded by the hills on its north. Gigmoto seems to have been hit worse while it was outside of the eyewall. Apparently, almost every tree seem to have lost everything they could have lost on the top of the hills, suggesting very strong winds.


Edit:


Well this zoomed footage shows parts of the city that have been blasted worse than I was imagining.


 https://twitter.com/bicolanodevil/status/1323220712954294274


0 likes   

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: GONI - Tropical Storm

#978 Postby euro6208 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:11 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (GONI)
WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 437 NM EAST
OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
A WEAK SYSTEM WITH FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT IS SHEARED
WESTWARD AFTER INITIALLY BUILDING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC) TO REVEAL A PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND RAGGED LLC. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 021625Z GMI 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT DEPICTS LOW-LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLC
AND CONVECTION DISPLACED JUST TO THE WEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
35KTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.5/35KTS FROM PGTW AND A
021357Z ASCAT-B IMAGE THAT SHOWS A POCKET OF 35KT WINDS IN THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH (25-30 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET
BY STRONG WESTWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING THROUGH THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA OVER WARM (28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, STEERED BY
A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 22W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 12, THEN
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STR BUILDS, MAKING LANDFALL IN VIETNAM
JUST PRIOR TO TAU 72. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY AS
ROBUST UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW OVERCOMES THE STRONG VWS AND WILL LEAD TO
A MODEST PEAK INTENSIFICATION TO 40KTS AT TAUS 24-36. AFTERWARD,
VWS, COOLING SST, AND INTERACTION WITH THE LAND AS IT NEARS VIETNAM
WILL OFFSET THE STRONG OUTFLOW AND WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 25KTS
BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL AND
EVEN SPREAD TO 225NM BY TAU 72, LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THIS
PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS GONI WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK INLAND WHERE
INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN, IN ADDITION TO THE UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL FURTHER ERODE THE SYSTEM LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY
TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SPREAD THROUGH TAU 96, LENDING
LOW CONFIDENCE TO THIS FINAL PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT TS 22W WILL DISSIPATE OVER
WATER PRIOR TO LANDFALL DUE TO HIGH VWS AND COOLING SST OVERCOMING
THE ROBUST OUTFLOW.//
NNNN
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15423
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: WPAC: GONI - Tropical Storm

#979 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Nov 03, 2020 4:16 am

Siimilar to Eta, maybe Goni's peak was lower? Unless there was ground confirmation somewhere?

But the T8.0 should be considered a legit estimate. Patricia formed and peaked between Oct20-Oct24 while Haiyan formed and peaked between Nov4-Nov11.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: GONI - Tropical Storm

#980 Postby euro6208 » Tue Nov 03, 2020 4:59 am

Kingarabian wrote:Siimilar to Eta, maybe Goni's peak was lower? Unless there was ground confirmation somewhere?

But the T8.0 should be considered a legit estimate. Patricia formed and peaked between Oct20-Oct24 while Haiyan formed and peaked between Nov4-Nov11.


Goni's eye was much warmer though. I read it could have been as high as 26C and it was constant near 20C during it's peak. Eta was only 10C? ADT, SATCON, AMSU, and Dvorak all supported at least 165 knot minimum.

The first peak though could have been stronger but objective aids cannot resolve small core systems properly.
1 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/


Return to “2020”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 8 guests