WPAC: GONI - Post-Tropical

[Thon1357]

Good thing Goni is done with Legazpi as of now. Cam Sur is next. It's a really strong storm but I think it didn't beat Durian in 2006. More on wind and lesser rain. Maybe it helped a lot that Goni was moving fast. It baffles me that PAGASA reported 310kph gustiness when it made the second landfall in Tiwi. Maybe it managed to still strengthen while crossing the water from Catanduanes

[CrazyC83]

Good thing Goni is done with Legazpi as of now. Cam Sur is next. It's a really strong storm but I think it didn't beat Durian in 2006. More on wind and lesser rain. Maybe it helped a lot that Goni was moving fast. It baffles me that PAGASA reported 310kph gustiness when it made the second landfall in Tiwi. Maybe it managed to still strengthen while crossing the water from Catanduanes

Was the 310 km/h an estimate, or actually recorded?

[CrazyC83]

Signal 5 raised by PAGASA

From what I can equate the signals, Signal 1 is either a Standby or an Advisory, Signal 2 is equivalent to a Tropical Storm Warning, Signal 3 is equivalent to a Hurricane Warning and Signals 4 and 5 are higher-end signals for equivalent to major hurricanes.

[mrbagyo]

 https://twitter.com/dzrhnews/status/1322731630142738432

[Weatherboi1023]

Good morning from Manila, its gonna go down today.

You're in Manila? Best of luck man, this looks pretty rough.

Good morning from Makati, Metro Manila too!

Sent from my SM-N986B using Tapatalk

[mrbagyo]

https://www.facebook.com/100003697646279/videos/2214332052033361/

flash flood in Camalig, Albay

[dexterlabio]

It is getting really gusty now with some light rain here in the northernmost portion of Metro Manila.

[euro6208]

TPPN13 PGTW 010253

A. SUPER TYPHOON 22W (GONI)

B. 01/0230Z

C. 13.48N

D. 122.78E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE TO
LLCC OVER LAND.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


HEINS

[1900hurricane]

The 115 kt from JTWC is based on a JMA Dvorak fix???

[mrbagyo]

We're starting to feel it.
1003.4 mb

[StormTracker89]

The 115 kt from JTWC is based on a JMA Dvorak fix???

JTWC does not do intensity fixes over land. Same with ADT by the way. JMA however does do intensity fixes over land, hence why when systems are over a land area, JTWC often only references JMA since its the only thing they have.

[euro6208]

I've been busy the last couple days but I estimate the peak intensity to be 180 kt based on its appearance. Imagine if we had Recon though?

I echo a user in here that Goni was likely stronger during it's first peak than it's second peak before landfall. The core and circulation in the first peak was literally microsmall that satellite estimates cannot resolve.

First peak- 185 to 190 knots 860's
Second peak- 175 to 180 knots 870's

Truly a loss in meteorology.

[1900hurricane]

The 115 kt from JTWC is based on a JMA Dvorak fix???

JTWC does not do intensity fixes over land. Same with ADT by the way. JMA however does do intensity fixes over land, hence why when systems are over a land area, JTWC often only references JMA since its the only thing they have.

I am well aware of that, it was just surprising to see JTWC take a JMA Dvorak fix and hug it verbatim, especially since it is arguably rather discontinuous with the previous 170 kt intensity. Now, I understand that all bets are off when land comes into play, especially with terrain involved like in this case, but a 55 kt/2T pullback in one six hour period is pretty extreme. Also pressure isn't guaranteed to be exactly correlated with wind in this case, but some of the pressure obs posted in this thread suggest that the central pressure is likely deeper than the probably KZC-generated pressure the JTWC has. In a case like this, wouldn't an inland decay model perhaps be better than basing an intensity off a lone Dvorak fix over land?

[ElectricStorm]

0z revised back to super typhoon
22W GONI 201101 0000 13.5N 123.6E WPAC 130 932

[euro6208]

Corrected.


WDPN31 PGTW 010300 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 22W (GONI)
WARNING NR 017 CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 22W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
165 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS THAT THE
EYE FEATURE HAS FILLED WHILE THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO
WEAKEN OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SPIRAL BANDS
OF CONVECTION PRESENT IN THE COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP AS
WELL AS A REMAINING MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE PRESENT IN A
312236Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE. THE RADAR IMAGERY REVEALS
THAT THE SYSTEM CENTER IS NOW POSITIONED OVER LAND
NORTHWEST OF LEGAZPI, PHILIPPINES. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 130KTS IS DEDUCED FROM AN OVERALL
ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES
OF T6.0/115KTS (RJTD), T7.5/155KTS, AND 164KTS (ADT),
JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL AND ACCOUNTED FOR FRICTIONAL
EFFECTS BROUGHT ON BY THE RUGGED TERRAIN. THE
ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME UNFAVORABLE DUE TO THE SYSTEM
POSITION OVER LAND AND MODERATE (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). STY GONI IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK OVER LAND
THROUGH TAU 12. CONTINUED MODERATE VWS AND THE OVER
LAND TRACK WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED WEAKENING TO 90 KTS
BY THIS TIME. BY TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE BEGUN TO
TRACK OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. COOLER (27-28 CELSIUS)
SST AND CONTINUED MODERATE VWS WILL LEAD TO FURTHER
WEAKENING TO 70 KTS BY THIS TIME. SST IS FORECAST TO
DECREASE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AFTER
TAU 24, WHICH WILL OFFSET A SLIGHT DECREASE IN VWS AND
LEAD TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING TO 60 KTS BY TAU 72.
NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
WITH A MAXIMUM 208 NM SPREAD IN TRACK SOLUTIONS BY TAU 72,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS INITIAL PORTION OF THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS LAID NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, STY GONI WILL TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STR POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND
MAKE A SECOND AND FINAL LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL VIETNAM
SOUTH OF DA NANG AT TAU 96. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VWS AND
COOLER (25-26 CELSIUS) SST AT THIS TIME. AFTER LANDFALL,
THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO TERRAIN EFFECTS
AND BY TAU 120 WILL BE REDUCED TO 30KTS. NAVGEM DIVERGES
TO THE RIGHT OF THE MAIN CLUSTER OF NUMERICAL MODELS AND
JGSM TO THE LEFT, THEREBY OFFSETTING EACH OTHER. IN VIEW
OF THIS, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION
OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS LAID ALONG THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS.
JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED INITIAL INTENSITY TO
130KTS AND TC CLASSIFICATION TO SUPER TYPHOON.//
NNNN

[Ed_2001]

(UNCONFIRMED) some storm aftermath video/img apparently from Viga on the Northern portion of Catanduanes. Some flooding, wind damage looks fairly minor but looks like the area did experience hurricane force winds. From radar Viga never got into the eyewall so it's probably a different story south of there.

https://www.facebook.com/10000051341077 ... 90736/?d=n

[mrbagyo]

(UNCONFIRMED) some storm aftermath video/img apparently from Viga on the Northern portion of Catanduanes. Some flooding, wind damage looks fairly minor but looks like the area did experience hurricane force winds. From radar Viga never got into the eyewall so it's probably a different story south of there.

https://www.facebook.com/10000051341077 ... 90736/?d=n

The towns of Catanduanes that got brutalized by the eyewall were Baras, Bato and Virac

[dexterlabio]

Are there links to reliable radar sites so we can track the hourly movement of the eye of Goni? For the first time since Rammasun I am keeping a close eye on this one. A slight bump to the north would spell bad news to Manila.

[mrbagyo]

Are there links to reliable radar sites so we can track the hourly movement of the eye of Goni? For the first time since Rammasun I am keeping a close eye on this one. A slight bump to the north would spell bad news to Manila.

https://www.rainviewer.com/weather-radar-map-live.html
https://www.windy.com/-Weather-radar-radar?radar,13.741,121.783,7

[StormTracker89]

The 115 kt from JTWC is based on a JMA Dvorak fix???

JTWC does not do intensity fixes over land. Same with ADT by the way. JMA however does do intensity fixes over land, hence why when systems are over a land area, JTWC often only references JMA since its the only thing they have.

I am well aware of that, it was just surprising to see JTWC take a JMA Dvorak fix and hug it verbatim, especially since it is arguably rather discontinuous with the previous 170 kt intensity. Now, I understand that all bets are off when land comes into play, especially with terrain involved like in this case, but a 55 kt/2T pullback in one six hour period is pretty extreme. Also pressure isn't guaranteed to be exactly correlated with wind in this case, but some of the pressure obs posted in this thread suggest that the central pressure is likely deeper than the probably KZC-generated pressure the JTWC has. In a case like this, wouldn't an inland decay model perhaps be better than basing an intensity off a lone Dvorak fix over land?

Well it would appear that JTWC agrees with you, since they revised their intensity up to 130kt.