#978 Postby euro6208 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:11 pm
WDPN31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (GONI)
WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 437 NM EAST
OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
A WEAK SYSTEM WITH FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT IS SHEARED
WESTWARD AFTER INITIALLY BUILDING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC) TO REVEAL A PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND RAGGED LLC. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 021625Z GMI 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT DEPICTS LOW-LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLC
AND CONVECTION DISPLACED JUST TO THE WEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
35KTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.5/35KTS FROM PGTW AND A
021357Z ASCAT-B IMAGE THAT SHOWS A POCKET OF 35KT WINDS IN THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH (25-30 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET
BY STRONG WESTWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING THROUGH THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA OVER WARM (28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, STEERED BY
A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 22W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 12, THEN
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STR BUILDS, MAKING LANDFALL IN VIETNAM
JUST PRIOR TO TAU 72. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY AS
ROBUST UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW OVERCOMES THE STRONG VWS AND WILL LEAD TO
A MODEST PEAK INTENSIFICATION TO 40KTS AT TAUS 24-36. AFTERWARD,
VWS, COOLING SST, AND INTERACTION WITH THE LAND AS IT NEARS VIETNAM
WILL OFFSET THE STRONG OUTFLOW AND WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 25KTS
BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL AND
EVEN SPREAD TO 225NM BY TAU 72, LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THIS
PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS GONI WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK INLAND WHERE
INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN, IN ADDITION TO THE UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL FURTHER ERODE THE SYSTEM LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY
TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SPREAD THROUGH TAU 96, LENDING
LOW CONFIDENCE TO THIS FINAL PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT TS 22W WILL DISSIPATE OVER
WATER PRIOR TO LANDFALL DUE TO HIGH VWS AND COOLING SST OVERCOMING
THE ROBUST OUTFLOW.//
NNNN
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacifichttps://www.weather.gov/gum/