WPAC: GONI - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

[Hayabusa]

Upgraded to 22W?

99W INVEST 201028 0000 16.6N 140.1E WPAC 25 1007

https://i.imgur.com/vDqh4sV.png

What is the difference between CTRL and HRES of the Euro model?

HRES is the highest resolution run, the one you always see when viewing the ECMWF on tropical tidbits except that you don't always see the actual minimum pressure, like it runs in 24 hour intervals while the one I plot gives me at least 6 hour intervals so the minimum pressure could be in between that and most often the pressure labeled on that site is not the actual minimum pressure. I think maybe because tropical tidbits uses the 0.5 degree output and the 850 mb level. CTRL is the low resolution run.

Here's a more technical explanation

The HRES provides a highly detailed description of future weather and averaged over many forecasts it is the most accurate forecast for a certain period, which is currently estimated as 10 days for large scale properties of the atmosphere. However for any particular forecast it may not be the most skilful member of the ensemble. Also when viewed in isolation it cannot provide an estimate of forecast uncertainty or confidence.

Another member of the ensemble (CNTL: Control forecast) is at a lower spatial resolution than the HRES but at that lower resolution it utilises the most accurate estimate of the current conditions and the currently best description of the model physics. Its significance for the ensemble is that it provides the unperturbed member to which the perturbations for the remainder of the ensemble members are applied.

[Hayabusa]

First warning 90 knots landfall

WDPN31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (TWENTY-TWO) WARNING
NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1110 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS DISORGANIZED, FLARING CONVECTION OBSCURING A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
SPIRAL BANDING AND LOW LEVEL FEATURES PRESENT IN THE MSI LOOP.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KTS IS PLACE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE
BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T1.5 (25 KTS, PGTW AND RJTD) AS WELL AS FROM SCATTEROMETRY DATA
FROM A PARTIAL 272356Z ASCAT-A PASS THAT DEPICTS 20-25 KTS
WINDS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. TD 22W IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND THROUGH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST), LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
HIGH (100-110 KJ/CM^2) AND ESTABLISHED POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS
THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 22W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH
TAU 48. DURING THIS TIME, CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO 45 KTS BY
TAU 48. AT THIS TIME, A REORIENTATION OF THE STEERING RIDGE WILL
LEAD TO A GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AS AN EXTENSION OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST BECOMES THE
PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72, THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO FURTHER INTENSIFY, POSSIBLY RAPIDLY, DUE TO
CONTINUED LOW VWS, WARM SSTS AND CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE, AND LEAD TO AN INTENSITY OF 80 KTS BY TAU 72. THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS DRIVEN BY INCREASING
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES AND MINIMAL VWS AND WILL LIKELY
DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE RIDGE REPOSITIONING. NUMERICAL
MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH NAVGEM PROVIDING
A SLIGHT POLEWARD BIAS AS COMPARED TO THE OTHER MEMBERS OF THE
JTWC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDS OVERALL
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THIS INITIAL PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK, WHICH IS LAID SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
C. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 96 AND FURTHER INTENSIFY TO 90
KTS BY THIS TIME DUE TO CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 96, TD 22W WILL MAKE LANDFALL
NORTH OF LEGAZPI, PHILIPPINES. AS THE STEERING RIDGE CONTINUES
ITS REORIENTATION, THE FORECAST TRACK WILL BECOME GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TAU 96 AND TAU 120. INTERACTION WITH THE
UNDERLYING TERRAIN BETWEEN TAU 96 AND 120 WILL LEAD TO A
WEAKENING IN INTENSITY TO 70 KTS BY TAU 120, AT WHICH TIME THE
SYSTEM CENTER WILL RETURN OVER WATER ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
LUZON. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
A MAXIMUM TRACK SPREAD OF 440 NM AT TAU 120 AND LENDS FAIR
AGREEMENT OVERALL IN THE ENTIRE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. //
NNNN

[doomhaMwx]

Upgraded to 22W?

99W INVEST 201028 0000 16.6N 140.1E WPAC 25 1007

https://i.imgur.com/vDqh4sV.png

What is the difference between CTRL and HRES of the Euro model?

. . .

Simply put, HRES is the deterministic run while CTRL is the ensemble mean.

[ElectricStorm]

This could easily end up as a major at landfall. Not good, especially coming in right after Molave.

[Hayabusa]

What is the difference between CTRL and HRES of the Euro model?

. . .

Simply put, HRES is the deterministic run while CTRL is the ensemble mean.

Yeah I forgot to say that I was so focused trying to explain why the pressure differences from tidbits

[mrbagyo]

First warning 90 knots landfall
https://i.imgur.com/HIG5tpg.gif

WDPN31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (TWENTY-TWO) WARNING
NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1110 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS DISORGANIZED, FLARING CONVECTION OBSCURING A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
SPIRAL BANDING AND LOW LEVEL FEATURES PRESENT IN THE MSI LOOP.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KTS IS PLACE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE
BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T1.5 (25 KTS, PGTW AND RJTD) AS WELL AS FROM SCATTEROMETRY DATA
FROM A PARTIAL 272356Z ASCAT-A PASS THAT DEPICTS 20-25 KTS
WINDS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. TD 22W IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND THROUGH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST), LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
HIGH (100-110 KJ/CM^2) AND ESTABLISHED POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS
THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 22W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH
TAU 48. DURING THIS TIME, CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO 45 KTS BY
TAU 48. AT THIS TIME, A REORIENTATION OF THE STEERING RIDGE WILL
LEAD TO A GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AS AN EXTENSION OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST BECOMES THE
PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72, THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO FURTHER INTENSIFY, POSSIBLY RAPIDLY, DUE TO
CONTINUED LOW VWS, WARM SSTS AND CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE, AND LEAD TO AN INTENSITY OF 80 KTS BY TAU 72. THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS DRIVEN BY INCREASING
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES AND MINIMAL VWS AND WILL LIKELY
DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE RIDGE REPOSITIONING. NUMERICAL
MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH NAVGEM PROVIDING
A SLIGHT POLEWARD BIAS AS COMPARED TO THE OTHER MEMBERS OF THE
JTWC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDS OVERALL
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THIS INITIAL PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK, WHICH IS LAID SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
C. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 96 AND FURTHER INTENSIFY TO 90
KTS BY THIS TIME DUE TO CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 96, TD 22W WILL MAKE LANDFALL
NORTH OF LEGAZPI, PHILIPPINES. AS THE STEERING RIDGE CONTINUES
ITS REORIENTATION, THE FORECAST TRACK WILL BECOME GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TAU 96 AND TAU 120. INTERACTION WITH THE
UNDERLYING TERRAIN BETWEEN TAU 96 AND 120 WILL LEAD TO A
WEAKENING IN INTENSITY TO 70 KTS BY TAU 120, AT WHICH TIME THE
SYSTEM CENTER WILL RETURN OVER WATER ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
LUZON. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
A MAXIMUM TRACK SPREAD OF 440 NM AT TAU 120 AND LENDS FAIR
AGREEMENT OVERALL IN THE ENTIRE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. //
NNNN

Man, that landfall over Camarines Norte then proceeding to the National Capital Region is like Angela from 1995. Could this be a dejavu?

[ejeraldmc]

It has plenty of time over water. I have a bad feeling about this one.

[ElectricStorm]

0z GFS landfalls at 979mb.

[ManilaTC]

Man, that landfall over Camarines Norte then proceeding to the National Capital Region is like Angela from 1995. Could this be a dejavu?

Yeah and its gonna be an locally named "R" storm again

[Hayabusa]

[Hayabusa]

ECMWF looks more northerly this time, and goes over the capital region probably as an STS

[Hayabusa]

ECMWF 967 mb and 979 mb from GFS

[mrbagyo]

[Hayabusa]

https://i.imgur.com/KTVyaht.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/UmOO4v9.jpg

I think that's from the 27/12Z run...

[Hayabusa]

Peak upped to 105 knots

WDPN31 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTY-TWO) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1110 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS
A SMALL SYSTEM WITH FLARING, ALBEIT CONSOLIDATING, CENTRAL CONVECTION
WITH VERY MINIMAL RAIN BANDS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE BASED ON LOW CLOUD TRACING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) IN THE MSI LOOP THAT LINED UP WELL WITH A FAINT,
PARTLY OBSCURED, BUT DISCERNIBLE LLC FEATURE IN THE 280429Z ATMS
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30KTS IS BASED ON MULTI
AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T1.5/25KTS TO T2.0/30KTS TO REFLECT THE
SLIGHT 6-HR IMPROVEMENT. TD 22W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH OVER
WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA AND
UNDER LOW (5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 22W WILL TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 12, THEN WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STR BUILDS, AND BY TAU 72, WILL BE APPROXIMATELY
375NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA. THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
WILL PROMOTE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION UP TO TAU 48, THEN RAPID
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 105KTS BY TAU 72 AS IT DRIFTS OVER A
WARMER (31C+ SST) POOL OF WATER IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA.
C. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL RETURN TO A WESTWARD THEN WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE STR WEAKENS SLIGHTLY WITH THE APPROACH OF A
MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST, MAKING LANDFALL OVER
SOUTHERN LUZON, PHILIPPINES AROUND TAU 96, TRACK NEAR MANILA, THEN EXIT
INTO THE SOUTH CHINA BY TAU 108. INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN IN
ADDITION TO INCREASED VWS (20KTS), WILL LEAD TO A WEAKENING IN
INTENSITY TO 65 KTS BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT WITH NAVGEM THE SOLE RIGHT-OF-TRACK OUTLIER, LENDING AN
OVERALL GOOD CONFIDENCE IN ALL PORTIONS OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
WHICH IS LAID SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

958 mb landfall GFS.

[euro6208]

TXPQ22 KNES 280924
TCSWNP

A. 22W (NONAME)

B. 28/0830Z

C. 16.7N

D. 139.0E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T2.5/2.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA. 0.4
CURVED BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.5. THE MET IS 2.0 BASED ON A NORMAL
DEVELOPING TREND IN APPARENT INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT
IS 2.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN BANDING
FEATURES.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...HOSLEY

[aspen]

HWRF doesn’t show this really gaining steam until Friday-ish, so it’ll probably be weak for the next two days, and the most important thing to watch will be the model trends. The HWRF is still a fan of the small core scenario.

[euro6208]

OHC is off the charts.