ATL: ZETA - Advisories

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Re: ATL: ZETA - Advisories

#21 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 28, 2020 2:05 pm

Hurricane Zeta Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
200 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

...ZETA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...EYEWALL EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST IN AN HOUR OR TWO...

Recent data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Zeta's maximum winds have increased to 105 mph (165
km), with higher gusts, and the central pressure has fallen to 973
mb. It now appears likely that Zeta will maintain category 2
intensity on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale until its
initial landfall in southeast Louisiana later this afternoon.

Sustained tropical storm force winds are now spreading onshore the
southeastern coast of Louisiana. A sustained wind of 45 mph (72
km/h) was recently reported at Caillou Bay, Louisiana.


SUMMARY OF 200 PM CDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 90.9W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SW OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SSW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Advisories

#22 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 28, 2020 4:01 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Zeta Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
400 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

...ZETA MAKING LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.2N 90.6W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM SSW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Navarre Florida
* Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Pensacola Bay and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Walton/Bay County Line Florida

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
Observations from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Zeta is making landfall near Cocodrie, Louisiana.

At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Zeta was located
near latitude 29.2 North, longitude 90.6 West. Zeta is moving toward
the north-northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h) A faster north-
northeastward motion is expected through tonight followed by an even
faster northeastward motion on Thursday and an east-northeastward
motion early Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will
make a second landfall along the Mississippi coast this evening,
and then move across the southeastern and eastern United States on
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening will occur while Zeta moves over the southeastern
United States on Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at http://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

STORM SURGE: Along the northern Gulf Coast, the combination of a
dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas
near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground
somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the
time of high tide...

Mouth of the Pearl River to MS/AL border...7-11 ft
MS/AL border to Dauphin Island AL...6-9 ft
Port Fourchon LA to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...6-9 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Mouth of the Pearl River
including Lake Borgne...5-7 ft
Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Port Fourchon LA...4-6 ft
Mobile Bay...4-6 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...4-6 ft
Dauphin Island AL to AL/FL border...3-5 ft
AL/FL border to Navarre FL including Pensacola Bay...2-4 ft
Intracoastal City LA to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River including
Vermilion Bay...1-3 ft
Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft
Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint
Andrew Bay...1-3 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane or Tropical Storm conditions are expected within
the Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast later this afternoon,
with tropical storm conditions already occurring. Tropical storm
conditions are also likely beginning within the Tropical Storm
Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast.

Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread well inland across
portions of southeastern Mississippi, Alabama, and northern Georgia
this evening through early Thursday morning, and into the Carolinas
and southeastern Virginia on Thursday. Wind gusts could be
especially severe across the southern Appalachian Mountains on
Thursday.

RAINFALL: Areas of heavy rainfall, both in advance of Zeta and
along the track of Zeta, will impact areas from the central Gulf
Coast to the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, and eastward into
the southern to central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic today through
Thursday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts
of 6 inches are expected across these areas, resulting in flash,
urban, small stream, and minor river flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are expected this afternoon through
tonight over southeastern parts of Louisiana and Mississippi,
southern Alabama, and the western Panhandle of Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch




Hurricane Zeta Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
400 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

The center of Zeta is in the Terrebone Bay area of Louisiana and
is making landfall near Cocodrie. Somewhat surprisingly, Zeta has
rapidly intensified this afternoon. Although the hurricane has been
moving over marginally warm SSTs and relatively low heat content
waters, it has intensified from 80 kt to 95 kt in about 6 hours. It
is possible that this intensification can be at least partly
attributable to a conducive interaction with with an upper-level
trough located a few hundred miles to the west-northwest of Zeta.
The 95-kt intensity estimate for Zeta is based on a blend of
flight-level, SFMR and dropsonde winds from an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft.

Since the center will either be interacting with land or moving over
land from this point, a weakening trend should begin tonight. The
official intensity forecast is close to the Decay-SHIPS guidance,
which should handle the exponential decay of wind seed for tropical
cyclones moving over land. In 24 hours or so, the global models
depict the system as being embedded in a front while it approaches
the United States east coast. Thus the official forecast shows an
extratropical cyclone at that point and beyond. After 48 hours, the
models show the low becoming elongated and absorbed into the frontal
zone.

Zeta has turned toward the north-northeast and the forward speed is
increasing, with the motion now 025/21 kt. The cyclone should
accelerate north-northeastward ahead of a 500-mb trough through
tonight. The system should then move even faster toward the
northeast, ahead of the trough, and across the southeastern and
eastern United States on Thursday. Post-tropical Zeta should move
east-northeastward, in the mid-level westerlies, into the Atlantic
Friday morning. The official track forecast follows the correct
model consensus, HCCA, rather closely.

Given Zeta's acceleration after landfall, strong winds are likely
to spread well inland over the southeastern U.S. overnight and
early Thursday.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is beginning along portions of the
northern Gulf Coast, with the highest inundation expected to occur
somewhere between Port Fourchon, Louisiana, and Dauphin Island,
Alabama, especially along the Mississippi coast. Overtopping of
local, non-federal levee systems is possible within southeastern
Louisiana outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction
System.

2. Extremely dangerous hurricane conditions are spreading across
portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the southeastern
Louisiana coast and will spread to the Mississippi coast this
evening. Tropical storm conditions will spread into portions of the
Tropical Storm Warning area along the Alabama and far western
Florida Panhandle coasts in the next few hours.

3. Strong, damaging wind gusts, which could cause tree damage and
power outages, will spread well inland across portions of
southeastern Mississippi, Alabama, northern Georgia, the Carolinas,
and southeastern Virginia tonight and Thursday due to Zeta's fast
forward speed. Wind gusts could be especially severe across the
southern Appalachian Mountains on Thursday.

4. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall is expected from portions of
the central U.S. Gulf Coast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, Ohio
Valley, southern to central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic States
near and in advance of Zeta. This rainfall will lead to flash,
urban, small stream, and minor river flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 29.2N 90.6W 95 KT 110 MPH...ON THE COAST
12H 29/0600Z 32.8N 87.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
24H 29/1800Z 37.5N 78.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 30/0600Z 41.0N 68.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 30/1800Z 44.0N 57.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Advisories

#23 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 28, 2020 5:17 pm

Hurricane Zeta Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
500 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

...EYEWALL OF ZETA APPROACHING NEW ORLEANS WITH STRONG WINDS...
...LIFE-THREATENING SURGE OCCURRING NEAR THE COAST...

Don't venture outside when the calm eye of the hurricane passes
over, as dangerous winds will return very quickly when the eye
moves away. Stronger winds, especially in gusts, are likely on
high rise buildings.

An unofficial weather station in Golden Meadow just reported
sustained winds of 94 mph (151 km/h) and a gust to 110 mph (177
km/h)

A wind gust to 52 mph (84 km/h) was recently reported at Houma,
Louisiana, and a wind gust to 53 mph (85 km/h) was reported at New
Orleans Lakefront Airport.



SUMMARY OF 500 PM CDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 90.4W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SSW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.70 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Advisories

#24 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 28, 2020 6:17 pm

Hurricane Zeta Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
600 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

...LIFE-THREATENING SURGE AND STRONG WINDS CONTINUE FROM ZETA OVER
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...

Don't venture outside when the calm eye of the hurricane passes
over, as dangerous winds will return very quickly when the eye
moves away. Stronger winds, especially in gusts, are likely on
high rise buildings.

A WeatherFlow station in Harahan, Louisiana recently reported
sustained winds of 56 mph (90 km/h) and a gust to 75 mph (120
km/h).

An elevated station at Bayou Bienvenue reported sustained winds of
88 mph (142 km/h) and a gust to 112 mph (180 km/h).

An unofficial weather station near Lake Hermitage reported
sustained winds of 64 mph (103 km/h) and a gust to 86 mph (138
km/h).


SUMMARY OF 600 PM CDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 90.2W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SSW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Advisories

#25 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 28, 2020 7:00 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Zeta Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
700 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

...ZETA BATTERING SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
WITH LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.2N 89.9W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SW OF SLIDELL LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Navarre Florida
* Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Pensacola Bay and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Walton/Bay County Line Florida

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Zeta was located
near latitude 30.2 North, longitude 89.9 West. Zeta is moving toward
the north-northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h) A faster north-
northeastward motion is expected through tonight followed by an even
faster northeastward motion on Thursday and an east-northeastward
motion early Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will
move from southeastern Louisiana into southeastern Mississippi
during the next hour or two, and then move across the southeastern
and eastern United States later tonight and on Thursday.

Radar and surface data indicate that maximum sustained winds have
decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening
will continue to occur while Zeta moves over the southeastern United
States on Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km). Shell Beach Louisiana recently reported sustained
winds of 81 mph (130 km/h) with a gust to 101 mph (163 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches). A
Weatherflow station at New Orleans Lakefront Airport recently
reported a minimum central pressure of 973 mb (28.74 mb).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

STORM SURGE: Along the northern Gulf Coast, the combination of a
dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas
near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground
somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the
time of high tide...

Mouth of the Pearl River to MS/AL border...7-11 ft
MS/AL border to Dauphin Island AL...6-9 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Mouth of the Pearl River
including Lake Borgne...5-7 ft
Port Fourchon LA to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-7 ft
Mobile Bay...4-6 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...4-6 ft
Dauphin Island AL to AL/FL border...3-5 ft
Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Port Fourchon LA...2-4 ft
AL/FL border to Navarre FL including Pensacola Bay...2-4 ft
Intracoastal City LA to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River including
Vermilion Bay...1-3 ft
Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft
Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint
Andrew Bay...1-3 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane or Tropical Storm conditions are expected within
the Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast through tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are also likely beginning within the
Tropical Storm Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast in a few
hours.

Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread well inland across
portions of southeastern Mississippi, Alabama, and northern Georgia
this evening through early Thursday morning, and into the Carolinas
and southeastern Virginia on Thursday. Wind gusts could be
especially severe across the southern Appalachian Mountains on
Thursday.

RAINFALL: Areas of heavy rainfall, both in advance of Zeta and
along the track of Zeta, will impact areas from the central Gulf
Coast to the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, and eastward into
the southern to central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic today through
Thursday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts
of 6 inches are expected across these areas, resulting in flash,
urban, small stream, and minor river flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are expected this afternoon through
tonight over southeastern parts of Louisiana and Mississippi,
southern Alabama, and the western Panhandle of Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Advisories

#26 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:15 pm

Hurricane Zeta Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
800 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

...ZETA WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...
...LIFE-THREATENING SURGE AND STRONG WINDS OVER SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...

The National Ocean Service station at Waveland, Mississippi,
recently reported sustained winds of 80 mph (129 km/h) and a wind
gust of 104 mph (167 km/h).

The National weather Service office in Slidell, Louisiana reported
a minimum pressure of 975.9 mb inside the eye of Zeta during the
past hour.


SUMMARY OF 800 PM CDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.7N 89.6W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NNE OF SLIDELL LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...145 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven/Blake
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Advisories

#27 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:59 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Zeta Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

...ZETA MOVING RAPIDLY THROUGH MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA WITH
DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.5N 88.7W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NE OF HATTIESBURG MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane and Storm Surge Warnings have been discontinued for
all of Louisiana, including Lake Borgne and Lake Pontchartrain.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Navarre Florida
* Pensacola Bay and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Walton/Bay County Line Florida

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Zeta was located
near latitude 31.5 North, longitude 88.7 West. Zeta is moving toward
the northeast near 31 mph (50 km/h). An even faster northeastward
motion is expected overnight through Thursday, then a rapid
east-northeastward motion is anticipated through Friday. On the
forecast track, the center of Zeta will move into southern Alabama
soon and then move quickly across the southeastern eastern United
States through Thursday before emerging offshore of Mid-Atlantic
coast late Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Further weakening is expected, and Zeta should
decay into a tropical storm overnight and into a non-tropical
gale-force low Thursday morning. The low should become absorbed by
a frontal system over the western Atlantic on Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km). Mobile Regional Airport recently;y reported sustained
winds of 48 mph (78 km/h) and a wind gust of 91 mph (146 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

STORM SURGE: Along the northern Gulf Coast, the combination of a
dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas
near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground
somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the
time of high tide...

East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to Dauphin Island AL...4-7 ft
Mobile Bay...4-6 ft
Dauphin Island AL to AL/FL border...3-5 ft
AL/FL border to Navarre FL including Pensacola Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to the Mouth of the Pearl
River...1-3 ft
Lake Maurepas, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Borgne...1-3 ft
Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint
Andrew Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane or Tropical Storm conditions are expected to
continue within the Warning areas near the northern Gulf Coast
overnight.

Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread well inland across
portions of southeastern Mississippi, Alabama, and northern Georgia
this evening through early Thursday morning, and into the Carolinas
and southeastern Virginia on Thursday. Wind gusts could be
especially severe across the southern Appalachian Mountains on
Thursday.

RAINFALL: Areas of heavy rainfall, both in advance of Zeta and
along the track of Zeta, will impact areas from the central Gulf
Coast to the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, and east into the
southern to central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic through Thursday.
Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches
are expected across these areas, resulting in flash, urban, small
stream, and minor river flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible overnight over parts of
southern Alabama and the western Panhandle of Florida. An isolated
tornado or two is possible tomorrow across much of the Carolinas and
southern Virginia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake





Hurricane Zeta Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

The center of Zeta made landfall on the Louisiana coast south of
Cocodrie at about 4 pm CDT with maximum sustained winds of about 95
kt. Since then, the hurricane has raced across southeastern
Louisiana and is now over southeastern Mississippi. While the
sustained winds have been coming down, the satellite presentation is
actually not very degraded for a system that has been over land for
this long, and there have been reports of 100-mph wind gusts during
the past couple of hours. The initial wind speed is set to 70 kt
on the basis of radar velocities and the decay-SHIPS model.

The hurricane is accelerating tonight toward the northeast or
040/27 kt. While Zeta should continue to weaken due to land
effects, strong gusty winds are likely to occur near and east of the
center due to the cyclone moving rapidly northeastward, allowing
these strong winds to spread well inland. Little change was made
to the intensity forecast. Zeta should become extratropical and
merge with a front before moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast,
eventually merging with a frontal boundary in a couple of days. The
official track forecast most closely follows a blend of the model
consensus and the GFS, and is faster than the last NHC track.

Note that the wind gust factor for this hurricane is higher than
typical for a tropical cyclone, and that is reflected in the
Forecast/Advisory product.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. A dangerous storm surge is continuing along portions of the
Mississippi and Alabama coastline and will gradually subside in the
early morning hours on Thursday.

2. Dangerous hurricane conditions expected to continue for the
next few hours near and along the Mississippi and Alabama
coastlines. Tropical storm conditions will also continue for
portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Alabama and
far western Florida Panhandle coasts.

3. Strong, damaging wind gusts, which could cause tree damage and
power outages, will spread well inland across portions of
southeastern Mississippi, Alabama, northern Georgia, the Carolinas,
and southeastern Virginia overnight and Thursday due to Zeta's fast
forward speed. Wind gusts could be especially severe across the
southern Appalachian Mountains on Thursday.

4. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall is expected from portions of
the central U.S. Gulf Coast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, Ohio
Valley, southern to central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic States
near and in advance of Zeta. This rainfall will lead to flash,
urban, small stream, and minor river flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 31.5N 88.7W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
12H 29/1200Z 35.5N 83.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 30/0000Z 39.5N 73.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 30/1200Z 42.5N 59.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Advisories

#28 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 29, 2020 4:39 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Zeta Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
400 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020

...ZETA PRODUCING DAMAGING GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 85.5W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WNW OF ATLANTA GEORGIA
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ENE OF BIRMINGHAM ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 39 MPH...63 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued. Information on
ongoing coastal flooding can be found in coastal flood products
issued by local National Weather Service offices.

The Tropical Storm Warning from the Mississippi-Alabama border to
west of Navarre, Florida, has been canceled.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Navarre to Walton/Bay County Line Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was
located near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 85.5 West. Zeta is
racing toward the northeast near 39 mph (63 km/h). An even
faster northeastward motion is expected later today, followed by a
rapid east-northeastward motion tonight and Friday. On the forecast
track, the center of Zeta will move across portions of the
southeastern U.S. this morning, across the Mid-Atlantic states this
afternoon, and emerge over the western Atlantic by tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Zeta is expected to become a non-tropical gale-force low later
today. The low should become absorbed by a frontal system over the
western Atlantic by Friday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

STORM SURGE: Water levels along the Central Gulf coast will
gradually subside throughout the day. Consult products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office for additional
information.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue within
the warning area near the northern Gulf Coast for a few more hours.

Damaging winds, especially in gusts, are spreading well inland
across portions of central and northern Alabama, and northern
Georgia, and these winds will shift into eastern Tennessee, the
Carolinas, and southeastern Virginia later today. Wind gusts could
be especially severe across the southern Appalachian Mountains.

RAINFALL: Areas of heavy rainfall, both in advance of Zeta and
along the track of Zeta, will impact areas from the central
Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic and lower to middle Ohio Valley through
Thursday. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected across these
areas, resulting in possible flash, urban, small stream, and
isolated minor river flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes could occur this morning from parts of
the Florida Panhandle across southeastern Alabama and Georgia. A
tornado or two is possible later today over the Carolinas and
southern Virginia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



Tropical Storm Zeta Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
400 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020

Surface observations and Doppler radar data indicate that Zeta
weakened to a tropical storm around 0600 UTC when it was located
over central Alabama. During the past few hours, the cyclone's
structure has degraded further with the center no longer easily
apparent in radar images and convection appearing more ragged and
asymmetric. The initial intensity is lowered to 50 kt for this
advisory, and that could be a little generous. The minimum
pressure is estimated to be 988 mb based on surface observations.

The storm continues to accelerate, and the latest initial motion is
northeastward at 34 kt. Zeta is expected to race northeastward
today in the fast steering flow between a potent mid- to upper-level
low to its west and a high pressure ridge to its southeast. This
pattern should take the cyclone across the southeast and
Mid-Atlantic states throughout the day, before emerging over the
western Atlantic this evening. An even faster east-northeastward
motion is predicted tonight and on Friday until the cyclone
dissipates by Friday night.

The tropical storm is forecast to weaken a little more during the
next several hours as it remains over land, and Zeta will likely
become extratropical by the time it reaches the mid-Atlantic
states this afternoon. However, after that time, the models show
the cyclone leveling off in strength or perhaps even
re-intensifying over the western Atlantic before it becomes
absorbed into a frontal zone in 36 to 48 hours. The NHC intensity
forecast follows the GFS and ECMWF models.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Strong, damaging wind gusts, which could cause tree damage and
power outages, will continue to spread well inland across portions
of northeastern Alabama, northern Georgia, the Carolinas, and
southeastern Virginia today due to Zeta's fast forward speed. Wind
gusts could be especially severe across the southern Appalachian
Mountains.

2. Through today, heavy rainfall is expected near and in advance of
Zeta from portions of the central Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic and
lower to middle Ohio Valley. This rainfall may lead to flash, urban,
small stream, and isolated minor river flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 34.0N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
12H 29/1800Z 37.7N 79.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 30/0600Z 40.8N 66.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 30/1800Z 43.4N 54.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Advisories

#29 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 29, 2020 9:54 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Zeta Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
1100 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020

...ZETA STILL PRODUCING STRONG INLAND WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.5N 81.5W
ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM NE OF ASHEVILLE NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 48 MPH...78 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was
located near latitude 36.5 North, longitude 81.5 West. Zeta is
moving toward the northeast near 48 mph (78 km/h). An even faster
northeastward motion is expected later today, followed by a rapid
east-northeastward motion tonight and Friday. On the forecast
track, the center of Zeta will move across the Mid-Atlantic states
this afternoon, and emerge over the western Atlantic by tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Zeta is expected to become a non-tropical gale-force low later
today. The low should become absorbed by a frontal system over the
western Atlantic by Friday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center. A sustained wind of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a gust
to 51 mph (82 km/h) were recently reported at the Greensboro
Piedmont Triad International Airport.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

WIND: Damaging winds, especially in gusts, continue to spread
across portions of South Carolina and North Carolina. These winds
will spread into southeastern Virginia during the next few hours.

RAINFALL: Areas of heavy rainfall, both in advance of Zeta and
along the track of Zeta, will impact areas from the central
Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic and lower to middle Ohio Valley through
Thursday. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected across these
areas, resulting in possible flash, urban, small stream, and
isolated minor river flooding.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible today across the Carolinas
and southern Virginia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch




Tropical Storm Zeta Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
1100 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020

Zeta continues to move rapidly over land, and its maximum sustained
winds are estimated to be near 45 kt over the southeastern
quadrant, with thew highest winds occuring over elevated locations.
The wind gust factor continues to be higher than usual due to the
interaction with land.

Zeta continues to accelerate northeastward and is now moving near
055/42 kt. The cyclone should accelerate some more ahead of a
strong 500-mb trough moving into the eastern United States over the
next day or so. The official track forecast is in reasonable
agreement with the global model predictions.

The pressure pattern of Zeta is becoming distorted, and starting to
take on an extratropical appearance as the cyclone begins to
interact with a nearby frontal system. By this afternoon, the
global models indicate that the system will become a frontal low and
thus extratropical. Some short-term baroclinic strengthening is
possible over the western Atlantic, but the guidance suggests that
the system will become absorbed into the frontal zone in 36 hours
or so.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Strong, damaging wind gusts, which could cause tree damage and
power outages, will continue to spread eastward across portions of
the Carolinas and southeastern Virginia through this afternoon due
to Zeta's fast forward speed.

2. Through today, heavy rainfall is expected near and in advance of
Zeta from portions of the Ohio Valley, into the central Appalachians
and Mid-Atlantic. This rainfall may lead to flash, urban, small
stream, and isolated minor river flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 36.5N 81.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
12H 30/0000Z 39.4N 73.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 30/1200Z 42.0N 60.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Advisories

#30 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 29, 2020 1:25 pm

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Zeta
Intermediate Advisory Number 20A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
200 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020

Corrected Tropical Storm to Post-Tropical Cyclone in Discussion and
Outlook section

...ZETA BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...
...STILL PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.8N 78.2W
ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM SSE OF CHARLOTTESVILLE VIRGINIA
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM WNW OF RICHMOND VIRGINIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 53 MPH...85 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Zeta
was located near latitude 37.8 North, longitude 78.2 West. Zeta is
moving rapidly toward the east-northeast near 53 mph (85 km/h). An
even faster motion toward the east-northeast is expected tonight and
on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will continue
to move across Virginia this afternoon, and emerge over the western
Atlantic by this evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast once Zeta moves over the
western Atlantic, but the cyclone should become absorbed by a
frontal system by Friday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km)
mainly to the southeast of the center. A sustained wind of 51 mph
(82 km/h) and a gust to 72 mph (116 km/h) were recently reported at
a station in Conway, North Carolina, to the east of Roanoke Rapids.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

WIND: Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will continue to spread
across portions of eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia
through this evening.

RAINFALL: Areas of heavy rainfall, both in advance of Zeta and
along the track of Zeta, will impact areas from the central
Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic and lower to middle Ohio Valley through
Thursday. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected across these
areas, resulting in possible flash, urban, small stream, and
isolated minor river flooding.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible this afternoon across the
Carolinas and southern Virginia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Advisories

#31 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 29, 2020 3:54 pm

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Zeta Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
500 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020

...ZETA ZOOMING OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TOWARD THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.8N 75.3W
ABOUT 25 MI...35 KM WSW OF CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 55 MPH...89 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Zeta
was located near latitude 38.8 North, longitude 75.3 West. Zeta is
moving toward the east-northeast near 55 mph (89 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through tonight. On the
forecast track, the center of Zeta will emerge over the western
Atlantic this evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast tonight, but the cyclone should
become absorbed by a frontal system on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km)
mainly to the southeast of the center. A sustained wind of 39 mph
(63 km/h) and a gust to 46 mph (74 km/h) were recently reported at
Ocean City, Maryland.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

WIND: A few strong gusts are still possible across portions of
extreme eastern North Carolina, southeastern Virginia, and the
southern Delmarva Peninsula during the next couple of hours.

RAINFALL: The last of the heavy rainfall along the track of Zeta
will impact the Mid-Atlantic through this evening. Additional
rainfall totals of an inch or less are expected across these areas,
possibly resulting in flash, urban, small stream, and isolated minor
river flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Berg



Post-Tropical Cyclone Zeta Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
500 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020

Zeta lost tropical characteristics and was declared post-tropical a
few hours ago. The surface pressure field has become elongated
with the center now embedded within a frontal zone over the
Mid-Atlantic states. The maximum sustained winds are still
estimated to be 45 kt, based on an observation received from
northeastern North Carolina a few hours ago, and winds have been
increasing at marine sites located just off the Mid-Atlantic coast.

Zeta is zooming toward the east-northeast (060/48 kt), and its
center is just about to move off the Delmarva Peninsula over the
western Atlantic waters. This motion should continue for the next
day or so since Zeta is embedded within fast westerly flow ahead of
a strong mid-level trough.

Some baroclinic re-intensification is expected over the next day or
so while Zeta moves farther out over the western Atlantic, and the
12-hour forecast intensity is based on the GFS and ECMWF global
models. Zeta's center is expected to dissipate within the frontal
zone by 24 hours, with another strong low pressure area likely to
develop and move toward the north Atlantic over the next several
days. The forecast wind radii are based on guidance from the
Ocean Prediction Center.

This is the last advisory issued on Zeta. Additional information
on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header
FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Strong wind gusts are still possible over portions of extreme
eastern North Carolina, southeastern Virginia, and the southern
Delmarva Peninsula during the next couple of hours.

2. Through this evening, the last of the heavy rainfall along the
track of Zeta is expected over the Mid-Atlantic. This rainfall may
lead to flash, urban, small stream, and isolated minor river
flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 38.8N 75.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 30/0600Z 41.0N 66.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg
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