ATL: ZETA - Advisories

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ATL: ZETA - Advisories

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 24, 2020 3:55 pm

Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
500 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020

...2020 PRODUCES YET ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PART OF WESTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 83.0W
ABOUT 255 MI...405 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
province of Pinar del Rio.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Pinar del Rio Cuba

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of
the depression.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Twenty-Eight was located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 83.0
West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 2
mph (4 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through early
Sunday. The system should gradually turn toward the west-northwest
with a faster forward speed by Monday. On the forecast track, the
center of the depression is anticipated to remain south of Cuba
tomorrow and approach the Yucatan Channel or Yucatan Peninsula late
Monday before emerging into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and the
system is expected to become a tropical storm on Sunday and could
become a hurricane over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft data is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Across portions of central and western Cuba, the Cayman
Islands, Jamaica, the northeast Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico,
southern Florida and the Florida Keys, storm total rainfall of 4
to 8 inches with local amounts of 12 inches are possible through
Wednesday.

WIND: Tropical-storm conditions are possible in the watch area
on Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake




Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
500 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020

Satellite imagery and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate
that the broad area of low pressure that NHC has been following for
the past couple of days has consolidated enough to be considered a
tropical depression. GOES-16 1-minute data shows the center pretty
clearly, with a new area of convection close by, and a minimum
pressure of 1005 mb was reported by the aircraft in that area. The
surface winds were generally fairly light within about a degree of
the center, but data from the plane supports a 25-kt initial
intensity.

The tropical depression hasn't been moving much, but recently it has
started at least drifting toward the north-northwest. A shortwave
trough moving across the southeastern United States should keep the
cyclone in a rather weak steering pattern during the next day or so,
with only a northwest drift anticipated. Mid-level ridging should
build over the northern Gulf of Mexico on Monday, forcing the
depression to move faster to the west-northwest toward the Yucatan
Peninsula or Channel. The ridge shouldn't last too long, however,
with a substantial upper-level low forecast to eject out of the
southwestern United States in a few days, causing the tropical
cyclone to sharply turn to the north and northeast on Wednesday.
The guidance isn't in very good agreement, and these types of trough
ejection scenarios can have significant timing differences. At
this time, the NHC track forecast leans a little more on the global
models than the regional hurricane models, and is just west of the
model consensus.

While the large-scale shear is fairly light at the moment, the low-
and mid-level circulations of the depression are not well-aligned.
Thus, it might take some time for the system to strengthen despite
low shear and very warm waters. In a day or two, the depression
will likely have a structure that supports a faster rate of
strengthening, and the intensification rate is increased while the
cyclone is near the Yucatan. Although the forecast shows the
system reaching hurricane strength in the southern Gulf of Mexico,
this is rather uncertain given the potential land interaction and
only a narrow area of favorable upper-level winds. A combination of
cooler shelf waters and increasing shear will likely weaken the
cyclone below hurricane strength as it approaches the northern Gulf
Coast. However, strong tropical storms can still produce significant
storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts, and residents in this
region will yet again need to monitor another tropical cyclone
moving northward across the Gulf.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The depression is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm
Sunday and could bring tropical storm conditions to extreme western
Cuba on Monday, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. There is
also a risk of tropical storm conditions in the northern Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico Monday night and Tuesday.

2. Through Wednesday, heavy rainfall is expected across portions of
central and western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the northeast
Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, southern Florida and the Keys. This
rainfall may lead to flash flooding in urban areas.

3. The system is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast as a
tropical storm on Wednesday, and could bring storm surge, rainfall,
and wind impacts to areas from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle.
Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of the
depression and updates to the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 18.7N 83.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 19.0N 83.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 19.5N 83.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 20.1N 84.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 20.9N 85.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 27/0600Z 22.0N 87.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 23.4N 89.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 27.5N 91.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 35.5N 84.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-EIGHT - Advisories

#2 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 24, 2020 9:43 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING HEAVY
RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS TO PARTS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 83.1W
ABOUT 240 MI...380 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
province of Pinar del Rio.

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Pinar del Rio Cuba

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Twenty-Eight was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 83.1
West. The depression is currently stationary, but a slow north-
northwestward to northwestward motion is expected to resume
overnight and continue on Sunday. A turn toward the west-northwest
and an increase in forward speed are forecast by Monday, followed
by a faster northwestward motion on Tuesday. On the forecast track,
the center of the cyclone will pass south of western Cuba early
Monday and move near or over the northern Yucatan Peninsula or
Yucatan Channel late Monday, move into the southern Gulf of Mexico
on Tuesday and reach the central Gulf of Mexico by late Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 to 72 hours, and the
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm by Sunday morning,
and could become a hurricane by early Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Across portions of central and western Cuba, the Cayman
Islands, Jamaica, the northeast Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico,
southern Florida and the Florida Keys, storm total rainfall of 4
to 8 inches with local amounts of 12 inches are possible through
Wednesday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area
in Cuba by Monday morning.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in
Mexico by Monday evening.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan



Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020

Deep convection has increased during the past few hours south of the
estimated low-level position based on aircraft data from just after
the release of the previous advisory. In fact, geostationary imagery
suggests that the low-level center could be trying to reform closer
to the deep convection. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt based
on the latest Dvorak estimate from SAB. Another NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft will investigate the system overnight and provide
additional data on the cyclone's structure and intensity.

As noted above, the depression hasn't moved much, and the system
currently appears to be stationary. Satellite imagery and upper-air
data show a shortwave trough moving through the southeastern United
States, which has weakened the steering flow around the cyclone. As
the shortwave moves eastward, the subtropical ridge will expand
westward to the north of the tropical cyclone by Monday, which
should result in a steadier west-northeastward motion. After that
time, a powerful mid/upper-level low is forecast to eject out of the
southwestern U.S., which will weaken the ridge and cause the
tropical cyclone to turn northward and northeastward as it
approaches the northern Gulf Coast. The global models are not in
good agreement on the details of the timing of the eastward movement
of the upper-low. While this isn't unusual, it results in
significant differences in when and where the tropical cyclone turns
and exactly where it crosses the Gulf Coast next week, with model
solutions ranging from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. The new
NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope
between the HCCA and the TVCA multi-model consensus. However, given
the current lack of motion of the system and the large model spread
late in the period, the details of the track forecast are more
uncertain than usual.

If the cyclone's low- and mid-level circulations can become better
aligned, the environment for the next 2 to 3 days appears conducive
for steady intensification, with low shear and SSTs of near 30C in
the northwestern Caribbean and above 28C in the southern Gulf.
After 72 hours, the shear is expected to increase while the cyclone
moves over cooler SSTs near the northern Gulf Coast, which should
result in weakening before the center moves inland. The new NHC
intensity forecast is a bit higher than the previous one through
about 60 hours, and is a blend of the latest intensity consensus
aids and HCCA. While the current NHC forecast indicates that the
system should weaken below hurricane strength before landfall, users
are reminded that strong tropical storms can still produce
significant storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts along the
northern Gulf Coast. The cyclone should be absorbed into a frontal
system by the end of the forecast period.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The depression is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm
by Sunday and tropical storm conditions are expected in extreme
western Cuba on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in
the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Monday night and early
Tuesday.

2. Through Wednesday, heavy rainfall is expected across portions of
central and western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the northeast
Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, southern Florida and the Florida Keys.
This rainfall may lead to flash flooding in urban areas.

3. The system is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast as a
tropical storm on Wednesday, and could bring storm surge, rainfall,
and wind impacts to areas from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle.
Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of the
depression and updates to the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 18.9N 83.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 19.2N 83.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 20.0N 83.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 20.7N 84.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 21.7N 86.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 27/1200Z 23.2N 88.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 25.4N 90.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 29/0000Z 31.5N 89.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
120H 30/0000Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Advisories

#3 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 25, 2020 5:01 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Zeta Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
500 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020

...ZETA MEANDERING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 83.5W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Pinar del Rio Cuba

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was
located a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 17.7 North,
longitude 83.6 West. Zeta is currently stationary and is continuing
to re-organize. However, a slow north-northwestward to northwestward
motion is expected to resume later today. A turn toward the
west-northwest and an increase in forward speed are forecast by
Monday, followed by a faster northwestward motion on Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Zeta will pass south of western Cuba
early Monday and move near or over the northern Yucatan Peninsula or
Yucatan Channel late Monday, move into the southern Gulf of Mexico
on Tuesday, and reach the central Gulf of Mexico by late Tuesday.

Data from the aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are
near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is
expected during the next 48 to 72 hours, and Zeta is forecast to
become a hurricane by early Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km),
mainly southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on reports from the
NOAA aircraft is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Zeta can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall bands will be expansive along and
east-northeast of Zetas track. Across portions of central and
western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the northeast Yucatan
peninsula of Mexico, Southern Florida and the Keys, storm total
rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12 inches are
possible through Wednesday.

By Wednesday, heavy rainfall associated with Zeta will begin to
affect the central Gulf Coast region, which may lead to flash
flooding in urban areas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in Cuba by Monday morning.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in
Mexico by Monday evening.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart





Tropical Storm Zeta Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
500 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020

Earlier this morning, the tropical cyclone located over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea was upgraded to Tropical Storm Zeta at
0600 UTC based on 0314Z ASCAT surface wind data of 32-33 kt
located southeast of the broad center. Since then, a NOAA
reconnaissance aircraft has been investigating Zeta and has found
maximum 925-mb flight-level winds of about 40 kt and reliable SFMR
surface winds of 33-36 kt. Recent satellite classifications from
TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS are 35 kt. Based on these data, the initial
intensity is set at 35 kt.

The initial motion estimate is stationary. Although Zeta has been
steadily losing latitude during the past 12 hours, this has been
primarily due to the broad low-level center reforming closer to the
very intense convection located in the southern semicircle of the
cyclone's large circulation. Satellite trends over the past 6 hours
indicate that a mid-level circulation located about 90 nmi east of
the low-level center is likely imparting a weak southerly component
of motion on Zeta as well. Over the course of the next 72 hours, a
weak shortwave trough currently located over the southeastern U.S.
from the Tennessee Valley southward into the north-central Gulf of
Mexico will continue to move eastward, allowing a low- to mid-level
ridge to steadily build westward across the Bahamas, Florida, and
the central Gulf of Mexico. This will gradually force Zeta on a
northwestward track across or near the northeastern tip of the
Yucatan Peninsula in about 48 h and into the central Gulf of Mexico
by 72 h. The latest NHC model guidance is in very agreement on this
developing 3-day track scenario. Thereafter, however, the models
diverge fairly significantly due to uncertainty in the evolution of
the next steering mechanism -- a trough over the northwestern U.S.
that will dig southward and phase up/merge with a trough off the
southern California and Baja California coasts. Phasing of northern
and southern stream systems is always difficult to forecast,
especially when one of those systems is outside the U.S. upper-air
observing system like the system currently is off southern
California. After the two systems phase in about 48 hours, a
powerful mid/upper-level low is forecast to form by 72 h and eject
eastward out of the southwestern U.S., causing the ridge over the
Gulf of Mexico to erode eastward. This will allow Zeta to turn
northward and then northeastward toward the north-central Gulf
coast. The global models remain in poor agreement on the details
of the timing of the eastward movement of the upper-low, resulting
in model solutions ranging from Louisiana (ECMWF-UKMET-FSSE) to the
Florida Panhandle (HWRF-HMON). The new NHC track forecast is a
little left of the previous advisory track through 72 hours, and
lies near the middle of the guidance envelope, close to the HCCA and
TVCA multi-model consensus. However, given the current lack of
motion of the system and the large model spread late in the period,
the details of the track forecast are more uncertain than usual.

Although the low- and mid-level circulations remain unaligned, the
overall environment for the next 60-72 hours is expected to remain
conducive for at least gradual intensification. After 72 hours,
however, the deep-layer vertical wind shear is expected to increase
while Zeta moves over cooler SSTs near the northern Gulf Coast,
which should result in weakening before the cyclone moves inland.
The new NHC intensity forecast is a tad higher than the previous
advisory, and lies near the upper end of the intensity guidance.
While the current NHC forecast indicates that the system should
weaken below hurricane strength before landfall, users are reminded
that strong tropical storms can still produce significant storm
surge, rainfall, and wind impacts along the northern Gulf Coast. The
cyclone should be absorbed into a frontal system by the end of the
forecast period.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Zeta is expected to produce tropical storm conditions over
extreme western Cuba on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Monday night
and early Tuesday.

2. Through Wednesday, heavy rainfall is expected from Tropical Storm
Zeta across portions of central and western Cuba, the Cayman
Islands, Jamaica, the northeast Yucatan peninsula of Mexico,
Southern Florida and the Keys. This rainfall may lead to flash
flooding in urban areas.

3. Zeta is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast as a
tropical storm Tuesday night and Wednesday, and could bring storm
surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to areas from Louisiana to the
Florida Panhandle. Residents in these areas should monitor the
progress of Zeta and updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 17.7N 83.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 18.2N 83.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 18.9N 84.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 19.8N 85.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 21.1N 87.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 27/1800Z 22.9N 89.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 25.4N 90.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 29/0600Z 32.0N 89.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Advisories

#4 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 25, 2020 12:01 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Zeta Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
1100 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020

...ZETA EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS TO PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS TODAY AND
MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 83.8W
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Pinar del Rio Cuba
* Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Cozumel

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was
located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 83.8 West. Zeta is
nearly stationary, but a generally northwestward motion is
expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the
center of Zeta will pass south of western Cuba early Monday and move
near or over the northern Yucatan Peninsula or the Yucatan Channel
late Monday, move into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and
reach the central Gulf of Mexico by late Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Zeta could become a hurricane by the time it moves near or over the
Yucatan Peninsula late Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Zeta can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12
inches are possible through Wednesday along and east-northeast of
Zetas track from Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, central to western
Cuba, and the northeast Yucatan peninsula of Mexico. Additional
rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with local amounts of 5 inches are
possible across southern Florida and the Keys over the next 2 days,
with isolated storm totals of 8 inches.

By Wednesday, heavy rainfall associated with Zeta will begin to
affect the central Gulf Coast region, which may lead to flash
flooding in urban areas.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch
area in the Yucatan Peninsula by late Monday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the warning area in the Yucatan
peninsula late Monday, and could occur in the warning area in
Western Cuba on Monday.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 1-3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in the Hurricane Watch area near and to the north of where
the center makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch




Tropical Storm Zeta Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
1100 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020

Although the cloud pattern of the storm is not well-organized and
somewhat elongated zonally, the system is producing very vigorous
deep convection, particularly over the southern portion of the
circulation. Cirrus cloud motions show that the upper-level
outflow is well-defined. The current intensity estimate remains at
35 kt in agreement with Dvorak values from both TAFB and SAB, and
pending another Hurricane Hunter mission into the system this
afternoon.

The center is difficult to locate at this time, and the best
estimate for motion is quasi-stationary. A high pressure area
developing near Florida should induce a general northwestward
motion over the next couple of days. Later, a shortwave trough
approaching from the west is likely to cause Zeta to turn northward
and north-northeastward while it nears the northern Gulf Coast in
72-84 hours. The official track forecast lies between the GFS
solution which is farther east and the ECMWF prediction which lies
farther south and west.

Given the favorable upper-level outflow pattern and very high
oceanic heat content over the northwestern Caribbean, strengthening
is likely until the center moves near or over the Yucatan Peninsula
late tomorrow. Zeta should be near or at hurricane strength when it
approaches the Yucatan. The official intensity forecast for the
next 36 hours is close to the model consensus. After Zeta moves
into the central Gulf of Mexico, increasing southwesterly shear and
diminishing oceanic heat content are expected to prevent
strengthening. The NHC intensity forecast over the Gulf is above
the latest model consensus. Although not explicitly shown in the
official forecast, the unfavorable atmospheric and oceanic
conditions over the northern Gulf of Mexico could cause Zeta
to weaken by the time the center nears the northern Gulf coast.
However, users are reminded that these intensity forecasts are
subject to uncertainty.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Monday night and early Tuesday,
with hurricane conditions possible. Tropical storm conditions
could occur over extreme western Cuba on Monday.

2. Through Wednesday, heavy rainfall is expected from Zeta across
portions of central and western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica,
the northeast Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, southern Florida and the
Keys. This rainfall may lead to flash flooding in urban areas.

3. Zeta could be at or just below hurricane strength when it
approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, and could bring
storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to areas from Louisiana to
the Florida Panhandle. Residents in these areas should monitor the
progress of Zeta and updates to the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 17.8N 83.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 18.4N 84.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 19.2N 85.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 20.3N 86.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 21.9N 88.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 28/0000Z 24.0N 90.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 27.0N 90.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 35.0N 85.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Advisories

#5 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 25, 2020 3:55 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Zeta Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
500 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020

...ZETA STRONGER...
...LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT NEARS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 83.4W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NEARLY STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Pinar del Rio Cuba

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was
located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 83.4 West. Zeta has
been meandering or nearly stationary, but a generally northwestward
motion is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast
track, the center of Zeta will pass south of western Cuba early
Monday and move near or over the northern Yucatan Peninsula or the
Yucatan Channel late Monday, move into the southern Gulf of Mexico
on Tuesday, and reach the central Gulf of Mexico by late Tuesday.

Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
the maximum sustained winds have increased near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48
hours, and Zeta is expected to become a hurricane before it moves
near or over the Yucatan Peninsula late Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft observations is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Zeta can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12
inches are possible through Wednesday along and east-northeast of
Zetas track from Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, central to western
Cuba, and the northeast Yucatan peninsula of Mexico. Additional
rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with local amounts of 5 inches
possible across Southern Florida and the Keys over the next 2 days,
with isolated storm totals of 8 inches.

By Wednesday, heavy rainfall associated with Zeta will begin to
affect the central Gulf Coast region, which may lead to flash
flooding in urban areas.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula by late Monday. Tropical
storm conditions could occur in the warning area in Western Cuba on
Monday.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 1-3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in the Hurricane Warning area near and to the north of where
the center makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



Tropical Storm Zeta Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
500 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020

Although the overall cloud pattern of Zeta is still not very well
organized, with a lack of distinct banding features, it continues to
generate very intense deep convection mainly over the southeastern
portion of the circulation. Moreover, in spite of its ragged
appearance, the storm has strengthened today. Reports from a NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the system this afternoon
indicate that, based on adjusted flight-level and SFMR-observed
surface winds, the intensity has increased to near 45 kt and the
central pressure has fallen to 999 mb. Since the storm will be
moving over the high oceanic heat content of the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and in a moist environment with low vertical shear
through Monday, strengthening is forecast and Zeta will likely
become a hurricane before it nears the Yucatan Peninsula in a day or
so. After Zeta moves into the Gulf of Mexico, southwesterly shear
is likely to increase and oceanic heat content below the cyclone
will diminish, especially when the system approaches the northern
Gulf coast on Wednesday. Therefore, no strengthening is forecast in
2-3 days and Zeta could be weakening by the time it reaches the
northern Gulf coast. However, the intensity forecast is still
subject to significant uncertainty.

The center has been meandering this afternoon, and apparently has
reformed nearer to the deep convection over the southeastern
quadrant. Since this is not considered representative of
larger-scale motion, the system is still considered to be
quasi-stationary at this time. However, the track guidance is in
agreement that Zeta will move northwestward over the next 1-2 days,
passing near or over the Yucatan Peninsula. Thereafter, the cyclone
is likely to turn north-northwestward to northward while it moves on
the western side of a mid-tropospheric anticyclone near Florida. A
turn toward the north-northeast is expected when Zeta nears the
northern Gulf coast, due to an approaching shortwave trough. The
track guidance has more than the usual amount of spread at the
72-hour time frame, with the ECMWF and the GFS predictions being
about 300 miles apart near the northern Gulf coast. The official
forecast track lies between these 2 solutions, and is similar to the
previous NHC track. However, given the inherent uncertainties, one
should not focus on the exact forecast track.

Based on the new intensity forecast, the government of Mexico has
issued a Hurricane Warning for a portion of the Yucatan peninsula.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Hurricane conditions and storm surge are expected in portions of
the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Monday night and early
Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions could occur over extreme western
Cuba on Monday.

2. Through Wednesday, heavy rainfall is expected from Zeta across
portions of central and western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica,
the northeast Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, southern Florida and the
Keys. This rainfall may lead to flash flooding in urban areas.

3. Zeta is forecast to be at or just below hurricane strength when
it approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, and there is an
increasing risk of storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts from
Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Residents in these areas should
monitor the progress of Zeta and updates to the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 17.7N 83.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 18.7N 84.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 19.7N 85.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 21.1N 87.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
48H 27/1800Z 23.2N 89.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 28/0600Z 25.7N 90.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 29.4N 90.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
96H 29/1800Z 37.0N 83.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Advisories

#6 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 25, 2020 9:46 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Zeta Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
1100 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020

...ZETA GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND STORM SURGE TO
PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 83.8W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Pinar del Rio Cuba

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was
located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 83.8 West. Zeta is
drifting toward the north-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h) but a faster
northwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days,
followed by a turn to the north. On the forecast track, the center
of Zeta will move near or over the northern Yucatan Peninsula or the
Yucatan Channel late Monday, move over the southern Gulf of Mexico
on Tuesday, and approach the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast, and Zeta is expected to become a
hurricane before it moves near or over the Yucatan Peninsula late
Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Zeta can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12
inches are possible through Wednesday along and east-northeast of
Zeta’s track from Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, central to western
Cuba, and the northeast Yucatan peninsula of Mexico. Additional
rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with local amounts of 4 inches
possible across Southern Florida and the Keys through Tuesday, with
isolated storm total accumulations of 8 inches.

Between Wednesday and Friday, storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches,
with local 6 inch amounts, is expected across sections of the U.S.
Gulf Coast and the southern U.S. near and in advance of Zeta. Heavy
rainfall will spread north into the Tennessee Valley, Southern
Appalachians, and portions of the Mid-Atlantic States near and in
advance of Zeta late in the week. The expected rainfall could lead
to flash flooding and minor river flooding.

By Wednesday, heavy rainfall associated with Zeta will begin to
affect the central Gulf Coast region, which may lead to flash
flooding in urban areas.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula by late Monday. Tropical
storm conditions could occur in the warning area in western Cuba on
Monday.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 1-3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in the Hurricane Warning area near and to the north of where
the center makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi




Tropical Storm Zeta Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
1100 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020

The tropical storm continues to produce deep convection on its south
side, with the low-level center estimated to be near the northern
edge of the thunderstorms. The last pass from the NOAA Hurricane
Hunters a few hours ago indicated that the minimum pressure had
fallen to 997 mb, and since the storm appears better organized than
before the initial intensity is nudged up to 50 kt. This intensity
estimate is slightly above the latest Dvorak numbers. The NOAA
Hurricane Hunters are planning to be in Zeta again overnight and
that data will be helpful in assessing the storm's intensity and
structure.

Zeta has not moved much during the past several hours, and the
initial motion is a very slow north-northwest drift. As ridging
begins to build over and near Florida, Zeta is forecast to move
faster to the northwest overnight and Monday, and that should take
the center of the cyclone near or over the northeastern portion of
the Yucatan Peninsula in about 24 hours. The ridge is then expected
to shift eastward over the western Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday
as a large and quite powerful mid- to upper-level low moves eastward
across the southwest and south-central United States. This change
in the steering pattern should cause Zeta to accelerate northward
toward the northern Gulf Coast, and likely make landfall there on
Wednesday. The models remain in poor agreement on the details of
the evolution of the steering pattern and consequently, there is
about a 300 n mi spread in the landfall locations from the various
models, which currently spans the region from the far western
Florida panhandle to western Louisiana. The NHC track forecast is a
little west of the previous one trending toward the middle of the
guidance envelope. Based on the poor model agreement, the confidence
in the track forecast is lower than normal. It is hoped that data
being collected by the NOAA Gulfstream jet flying around Zeta
and special NWS weather balloon launches will help the models come
into better agreement on the future track of Zeta soon.

Given the low wind shear conditions, moist air mass, and high
oceanic heat content over the northwestern Caribbean, steady
strengthening seems likely until Zeta reaches the Yucatan Peninsula
by late Monday. The cyclone is expected to be a hurricane at
landfall in Mexico, and the new forecast shows a slightly higher
intensity there based on the new models and favorable conditions.
The models differ on how long the core of Zeta will be inland over
the Yucatan, but in general, it seems likely that significant
weakening won't occur given the storm's expected increasing forward
speed. The overall environmental conditions are anticipated to
remain generally favorable while Zeta moves across the southern Gulf
of Mexico, but there should be an increase in shear when it reaches
the central Gulf and the cyclone will then be moving over the
cooler shelf waters over the northern Gulf. The combination of the
stronger shear and cooler waters should cause Zeta to level off
in strength and perhaps weaken slightly before the U.S. landfall.
The intensity models are in fair agreement, and the NHC forecast
lies near the HCCA and IVCN consensus models.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Hurricane conditions and storm surge are expected in portions of
the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Monday night and early
Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions could occur over extreme western
Cuba on Monday.

2. Through Wednesday, heavy rainfall is expected from Zeta across
portions of central and western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica,
the northeast Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, southern Florida and the
Keys. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding in urban areas.

3. Zeta is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when
it approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, and there is an
increasing risk of storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts from
Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Residents in these areas should
monitor the progress of Zeta and updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 18.1N 83.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 18.9N 84.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 20.2N 86.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 21.8N 88.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 24.0N 90.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 28/1200Z 27.1N 91.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 29/0000Z 31.1N 89.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 30/0000Z 38.7N 78.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Advisories

#7 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 26, 2020 4:47 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Zeta Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
500 AM EDT Mon Oct 26 2020

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS ZETA RAPIDLY
STRENGTHENING...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 84.3W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has extended the Hurricane Warning
westward along the northern coast of the Yucatan peninsula to
Dzilam. The government of Mexico has also issued a Tropical Storm
Warning from south of Tulum to Punta Allen and from west of Dzilam
to Progreso.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tulum to Dzilam Mexico
* Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Pinar del Rio Cuba
* South of Tulum to Punta Allen
* West of Dzilam to Progreso

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was
located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 18.7
North, longitude 84.3 West. Zeta is moving toward the northwest
near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northwestward motion with an increase in
forward speed is expected over the day or so, followed by a turn
toward the north Tuesday night. A faster northward to
north-northeastward motion is forecast on Wednesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Zeta will move near or over the
northern Yucatan Peninsula later today or tonight, move over the
southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and approach the northern Gulf
Coast on Wednesday.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Zeta is expected to become a
hurricane later this morning. Additional strengthening is expected
before Zeta moves over the Yucatan Peninsula.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA
reconnaissance aircraft data is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Zeta can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43
KNHC, and on the web at http://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of
12 inches are possible through Tuesday along and east-northeast of
Zetas track across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, the Cayman
Islands, and central to western Cuba.

Between Tuesday night and Thursday, storm total rainfall of 2 to 4
inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches is expected across portions
of the central U.S. Gulf Coast, Tennessee Valley, southern
Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic States near and in advance of Zeta.
The expected rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream
flooding, along with minor river flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula by late today. Tropical
storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning
area in Mexico by late today. Tropical storm conditions could occur
in the warning area in western Cuba beginning later today.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 1-3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in the Hurricane Warning area near and to the north of where
the center makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown




Tropical Storm Zeta Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
500 AM EDT Mon Oct 26 2020

Zeta's satellite presentation has continued to improve overnight.
The cold convective cloud shield has expanded northwestward over the
center and there has been a continued increase in banding over the
southern and southeastern portions of the circulation. With the
expansion of the convection over the center, it appears that a CDO
feature is trying to form. A NOAA P-3 reconnaissance aircraft that
has been investigating Zeta overnight has reported that the pressure
has fallen to 990 mb. The aircraft has found peak 850-mb
flight-level winds of 69 kt and believable SFMR winds of around 60
kt, with some higher flagged values. These data support increasing
the initial intensity to 60 kt for this advisory.

Recent aircraft fixes indicate that Zeta has begun its expected
northwestward motion at about 315 degrees at 8 kt. The storm should
begin to move at an even faster pace toward the northwest as a
mid-level ridge builds over the western Atlantic and Florida during
the next 24 to 36 hours. This ridge will steer Zeta across the
northern portion of the Yucatan peninsula tonight, and over the
south-central Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. A vigorous mid- to
upper-level trough currently over the western United States is
forecast to begin ejecting out of the southwestern U.S. by mid-week,
which will erode the western portion of the aforementioned ridge.
This should cause Zeta to accelerate northward and approach the
northern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. The 0000 UTC global models,
which incorporated dropwindsonde data from the earlier NOAA G-IV
synoptic surveillance mission, have come into somewhat better
agreement this cycle. While there is still some spread on exactly
when the northward turn takes place and how quickly Zeta accelerates
north-northeastward over the Gulf of Mexico, the cross-track spread
at 60 h is about half of what it was before, resulting in an
increase in track-forecast confidence. The latest NHC track is in
best agreement with the GFS ensemble mean and the GFEX consensus
aid. This is a little right of the TVCA and HCCA multi-model
consensus, but quite close to the previous NHC track forecast.

With the recent improvement in the outflow over Zeta, it appears
that the shear that had prevented strengthening has abated. The
shear ahead of the storm is expected to remain low while the cyclone
traverses the deep, warm water of the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
As a result, Zeta is forecast to become a hurricane this morning,
and continued strengthening is likely until Zeta moves over the
Yucatan peninsula this evening. The landfall intensity is likely to
be a little stronger than shown below since Zeta will be inland over
the Yucatan peninsula by the 24-hour forecast point. Environmental
conditions over the southern Gulf of Mexico are forecast to be
conducive for some re-strengthening as Zeta moves over the
south-central Gulf on Tuesday. Increasing shear and the cooler
shelf waters of the northern Gulf are likely to result in some
reduction in intensity before Zeta reaches the northern Gulf coast.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Hurricane conditions and storm surge are expected in portions of
the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico tonight and early Tuesday.
Tropical storm conditions could occur over extreme western Cuba
beginning later today.

2. Through Tuesday, heavy rainfall is expected from Zeta across the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, the Cayman Islands, and central to
western Cuba. This rainfall may lead to flash flooding in urban
areas.

3. Zeta is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when it
approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, and there is an
increasing risk of storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts from
Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Residents in these areas should
monitor the progress of Zeta and updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 18.7N 84.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 19.5N 85.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 20.8N 87.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
36H 27/1800Z 22.5N 89.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 28/0600Z 24.7N 91.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 28/1800Z 27.7N 90.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 29/0600Z 31.8N 88.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
96H 30/0600Z 39.0N 75.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Advisories

#8 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 26, 2020 10:59 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Zeta Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020

...HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE LIKELY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 85.3W
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tulum to Dzilam Mexico
* Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Pinar del Rio Cuba
* South of Tulum to Punta Allen
* West of Dzilam to Progreso

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Watches will likely be required for a portion of the northern Gulf
Coast later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was
located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 85.3 West. Zeta is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A northwestward
motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the
next day or so, followed by a turn toward the north Tuesday night.
A faster northward to north-northeastward motion is forecast on
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will move near
or over the northern Yucatan Peninsula later today or tonight, move
over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and approach the
northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Zeta is expected to become
a hurricane later today. Some weakening is likely while Zeta
moves over the Yucatan Peninsula tonight and early Tuesday. Zeta
is forecast to strengthen again while it moves over the southern
Gulf of Mexico later on Tuesday

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12
inches are possible through Tuesday along and east-northeast of
Zeta's track across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, the Cayman
Islands, and central to western Cuba.

Heavy rains will begin to impact the central Gulf Coast Tuesday
night, spreading inland across eastern Mississippi, Alabama,
northern Georgia during Wednesday, through the southern Appalachians
Wednesday night and into the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday. Rainfall
totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches are
expected across these areas, resulting in flash, urban, small
stream, and minor river flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula by late today. Tropical
storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning
area in Mexico by late today. Tropical storm conditions could occur
in the warning area in western Cuba beginning later today.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in the Hurricane Warning area near and to the north of where
the center makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch





Tropical Storm Zeta Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020

After a significant strengthening episode early this morning, Zeta
appears to have changed little in intensity recently. High spatial
and temporal resolution GOES-16 visible satellite images indicate
that the low-level center of the storm is located near the
northwestern edge of the main area of vigorous deep convection. The
current intensity estimate is held at 60 kt which is the average of
recent Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Zeta in a few
hours, and should provide a better estimate of the strength of the
storm.

Zeta is moving northwestward, or about 305/9 kt. A mid-level high
pressure area centered just east of Florida should steer the
tropical cyclone on a continued northwestward heading for the next
day or so, taking center over the northern part of the Yucatan
Peninsula. By around 48 hours, Zeta is expected to turn northward
over the Gulf along the western side of the high. Afterward, a
shortwave trough moving into the southern Plains should induce a
turn toward the north-northeast and take the center inland over the
southern United States. The system should then move fairly quickly
northeastward across the eastern U.S. and emerge into the Atlantic
by day 4. The official track forecast has been adjusted a bit to
the west of the previous one but not quite as far west as the
corrected model consensus.

Zeta is apparently experiencing some north-northwesterly shear given
the displacement of the low-level center from the convection.
However, this shear is expected to abate very soon, and the cyclone
is likely to strengthen into a hurricane before reaching the
northeastern Yucatan Peninsula. Some weakening should occur while
Zeta interacts with land during the next 12 to 24 hours. The
atmospheric and oceanic environment should be somewhat conducive
while the system moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico in a day or
two, and the official forecast shows some re-strengthening in 24-36
hours. Later in the forecast period, when Zeta approaches the
northern Gulf Coast, cooler shelf waters and some increase in
southwesterly shear could cause some weakening. The official
intensity forecast is similar to the previous ones and shows Zeta
still near hurricane strength at landfall along the northern
Gulf of Mexico coast, which is near or above most of the model
guidance. Zeta is likely to become an extratropical cyclone when it
emerges into the Atlantic, and be absorbed by a frontal system
around the end of the forecast period.

Given the timing of the track and the forecast wind radii, watches
will likely be required for a portion of the northern Gulf Coast
later today.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected in
portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico tonight and
early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions could occur over extreme
western Cuba beginning later today.

2. Through Tuesday, heavy rainfall is expected from Zeta across the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, the Cayman Islands, and central to
western Cuba. This rainfall may lead to flash flooding in urban
areas. Between Tuesday night and Thursday, heavy rainfall is
expected from portions of the central U.S. Gulf Coast into the
southern Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic States near and in advance
of Zeta. This rainfall will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and
minor river flooding.

3. Zeta is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when it
approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, and there is an
increasing risk of dangerous storm surge, wind, and rainfall
impacts from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Residents in these
areas should monitor the progress of Zeta, as Hurricane and Storm
Surge watches will likely be issued later today.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 19.1N 85.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 20.1N 86.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 21.5N 88.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 23.3N 90.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 25.7N 91.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 29/0000Z 28.9N 90.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 33.0N 87.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 30/1200Z 40.0N 73.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Advisories

#9 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 26, 2020 12:57 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Zeta Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
100 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020

...ZETA HEADED FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 85.6W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tulum to Dzilam Mexico
* Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Pinar del Rio Cuba
* South of Tulum to Punta Allen
* West of Dzilam to Progreso

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Watches will likely be required for a portion of the northern Gulf
Coast later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 19.3 North, longitude 85.6 West. Zeta is moving toward the
northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A northwestward motion with some
increase in forward speed is expected over the next day or so,
followed by a turn toward the north Tuesday night. A faster
northward to north-northeastward motion is forecast on Wednesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Zeta will move near or over the
northern Yucatan Peninsula later today or tonight, move over the
southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and approach the northern Gulf
Coast on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Zeta is expected to become a
hurricane later today. Some weakening is likely while Zeta moves
over the Yucatan Peninsula tonight and early Tuesday. Zeta is
forecast to strengthen again while it moves over the southern Gulf
of Mexico later on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter
aircraft observations is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12
inches are possible through Tuesday along and east-northeast of
Zeta's track across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, the Cayman
Islands, and central to western Cuba.

Heavy rains will begin to impact the central Gulf Coast Tuesday
night, spreading inland across eastern Mississippi, Alabama,
northern Georgia during Wednesday, through the southern Appalachians
Wednesday night and into the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday. Rainfall
totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches are
expected across these areas, resulting in flash, urban, small
stream, and minor river flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula by late today. Tropical
storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning
area in Mexico by late today. Tropical storm conditions could occur
in the warning area in western Cuba beginning later today.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in the Hurricane Warning area near and to the north of where
the center makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Advisories

#10 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 26, 2020 2:14 pm

Hurricane Zeta Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
210 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND ZETA HAS STRENGTHENED
TO A HURRICANE...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Zeta has become a hurricane, with maximum sustained winds near
80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts.


SUMMARY OF 210 PM CDT...1910 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 85.8W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Pasch
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Advisories

#11 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 26, 2020 3:50 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Zeta Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020

...ZETA EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND A DANGEROUS STORM
SURGE TO PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 86.0W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from Intracoastal City, Louisiana,
to Navarre, Florida, including Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain,
Vermilion Bay, Pensacola Bay, and Mobile Bay.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the
Mississippi/Alabama border, including Lake Pontchartrain, Lake
Maurepas, and metropolitan New Orleans.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from the Mississippi/Alabama
border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line, Florida, and from west
of Morgan City to Intracoastal City.

The government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning
for Pinar del Rio.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tulum to Dzilam Mexico
* Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South of Tulum to Punta Allen Mexico
* West of Dzilam to Progreso Mexico

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to Navarre Florida
* Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Vermilion Bay, Pensacola Bay, and
Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 12 to 24 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Zeta was located
near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 86.0 West. Zeta is moving
toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A northwestward motion
with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next day or
so, followed by a turn toward the north Tuesday night. A faster
northward to north-northeastward motion is forecast on Wednesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Zeta will move over the northern
Yucatan Peninsula later today or tonight, move over the southern
Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and approach the northern Gulf Coast in
the watch area on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible before Zeta makes
landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula. Some weakening is likely while
Zeta moves over the Yucatan Peninsula late tonight and early
Tuesday. Zeta is forecast to strengthen again when it moves over
the southern Gulf of Mexico later on Tuesday and be at or near
hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf Coast on
Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in the Hurricane Warning area near and to the north of where
the center makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Fourchon LA to Dauphin Island AL including Lake Borgne...4-6
ft
Intracoastal City LA to Port Fourchon LA including Vermilion
Bay...2-4 ft
Dauphin Island AL to Navarre FL including Mobile Bay and Pensacola
Bay...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...2-4 ft
Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint
Andrew Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12
inches are possible through Tuesday along and east-northeast of
Zetas track across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, the Cayman
Islands, and central to western Cuba.

An initial area of heavy rains will begin to impact the central Gulf
Coast Tuesday night, spreading north into the Tennessee Valley on
Wednesday. The core of the heavy rains associated with Zeta will
push northeast from eastern Louisiana across southern Mississippi,
Alabama and northern Georgia through Wednesday night, and through
the southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday.
Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches
are expected across these areas, resulting in flash, urban, small
stream, and minor river flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula this evening. Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area in
Mexico this evening.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area on
the northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday, and tropical storm
conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area on the
northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch




Hurricane Zeta Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020

The cloud pattern of Zeta became better organized today, with deep
convection forming over and around the center and some banding
features developing. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters
recently found surface winds to near 70 kt over the inner
northeastern quadrant of the circulation and a central pressure of
around 981 mb, signifying that the system had become a hurricane.
Given the increased organization over very warm waters, some
additional strengthening is possible before the center crosses the
east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula this evening. Some weakening
should occur while Zeta interacts with land tonight and early
Tuesday. Once the center moves into the southern Gulf of Mexico
tomorrow, atmospheric and oceanic conditions are conducive for some
re-strengthening. When Zeta moves over the northern Gulf of Mexico
later on Wednesday, cooler shelf waters and some increase in
southwesterly shear should halt the intensification process, with
some weakening possible by the time the center reaches the northern
Gulf Coast, but Zeta is still expected to be at or near hurricane
intensity at landfall. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the
previous one and is near or above the model consensus.

The hurricane continues to move on a generally northwestward track,
or at about 305/10 kt. There are basically no changes to the track
forecast reasoning, or to the forecast itself. For the next couple
of days, Zeta should move around the southwestern and western
periphery of a mid-level high pressure area centered just east of
Florida. Thereafter, a shortwave trough approaching from the west
is likely to cause the cyclone to accelerate north-northeastward to
northeastward and move over the southeastern and eastern United
States. The system should move off the northeast U.S. coast and
become an extratropical cyclone within the next 4 days. The
guidance has come into better agreement since yesterday, and the
official track forecast is very close to the corrected model
consensus, HCCA.

Storm Surge, Hurricane, and Tropical Storm Watches have been issued
for a portion of the northern U.S. Gulf Coast.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected in
portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico this evening
through early Tuesday. Through Tuesday, heavy rainfall is expected
across the Yucatan Peninsula, the Cayman Islands, and central to
western Cuba, which could lead to flash flooding in urban areas.

2. Hurricane conditions and life-threatening storm surge are
possible along portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, and
Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches are in effect. Residents in the
watch areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

3. Between Tuesday night and Thursday, heavy rainfall is expected
from portions of the central Gulf Coast into the southern
Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States near and in advance of Zeta.
This rainfall will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and minor
river flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 19.5N 86.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 20.5N 87.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 22.1N 89.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 24.2N 91.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 26.8N 91.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 29/0600Z 30.8N 88.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
72H 29/1800Z 35.0N 83.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 30/1800Z 42.0N 68.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Advisories

#12 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 26, 2020 9:48 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Zeta Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020

...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS LASHING YUCATAN...
...ZETA SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL IN A COUPLE OF HOURS WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 87.1W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM E OF TULUM MEXICO
ABOUT 625 MI...1010 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Allen to Progreso Mexico
* Cozumel

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to Navarre Florida
* Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Vermilion Bay, Pensacola Bay, and
Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 6
hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Zeta was located
near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 87.1 West. Zeta is moving toward
the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is
forecast during the next day or so. Zeta should turn toward the
north Tuesday night, and a faster northward to north-northeastward
motion is anticipated on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Zeta will move over the northern Yucatan Peninsula during
the next couple of hours, move over the southern Gulf of Mexico on
Tuesday, and approach the northern Gulf Coast in the watch area on
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible before Zeta makes
landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula. Weakening is forecast while Zeta
moves over the Yucatan Peninsula late tonight and early Tuesday.
Zeta is forecast to re-strengthen when it moves over the southern
Gulf of Mexico later on Tuesday and be at or near hurricane strength
when it approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km). A Weatherflow station just south of Playa del Carmen
reported sustained winds of 67 mph (108 km/h) with a gust to 87 mph
(140 km/h). Another Weatherflow station in Cancun recently reported
sustained winds of 60 mph (97 km/h) with a gust to 72 mph (116
km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in the Hurricane Warning area near and to the north of where
the center makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Fourchon LA to Dauphin Island AL including Lake Borgne...4-6
ft
Intracoastal City LA to Port Fourchon LA including Vermilion
Bay...2-4 ft
Dauphin Island AL to Navarre FL including Mobile Bay and Pensacola
Bay...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...2-4 ft
Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint
Andrew Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12
inches are possible through Tuesday along and east-northeast of
Zeta’s track across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and the Cayman
Islands. An additional 1 to 3 inches of rain will be possible across
western Cuba through Tuesday.

An initial area of heavy rains will begin to impact the central Gulf
Coast Tuesday night, spreading north into the Tennessee Valley on
Wednesday. The core of the heavy rains associated with Zeta will
push northeast from eastern Louisiana, across southern Mississippi,
Alabama, northern Georgia through Wednesday night, and through the
southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday. Rainfall
totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches are
expected across these areas, resulting in flash, urban, small
stream, and minor river flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are already occurring within the
Hurricane Warning area and should continue for the next several
hours.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area on
the northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday, and tropical storm
conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area on the
northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

NNNN



Hurricane Zeta Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020

Satellite images are showing that convection has been increasing
near Zeta tonight, with cold cold tops to at least -93C, and
occasional hints of a warm spot related to the early-stages of an
eye beneath the clouds. Yet, the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
mission found that Zeta has basically been steady state in terms of
maximum winds and pressures, with peak SFMR values hovering between
65-70 kt and dropsonde data showing central pressures of about 982
mb. The data did show that the area of hurricane-force winds has
grown, about 40 n mi in the eastern semicircle, and it is possible
that the worst of this hurricane will be after the center makes
landfall. The initial wind speed is kept at 70 kt on this advisory.

The hurricane is running out of time to get much stronger before
landfall during the next couple of hours, but some increase in
intensity is possible. Zeta should spend less than 12 hours over
land as it crosses Yucatan, but that's enough time to probably drop
it below hurricane strength early tomorrow. However, environmental
conditions are unseasonably conducive for intensification so late in
the year in the southern and central Gulf of Mexico, with fairly
light shear and warm waters during the next 24 to 36 hours. The
peak intensity forecast is raised slightly after considering those
factors, and some models like the HWRF or ECMWF even suggest it
could get a little stronger. As the hurricane nears the northern
Gulf Coast, it is likely to encounter stronger shear and cooler
waters, so some weakening is anticipated, but Zeta is still expected
to be at or near hurricane intensity at landfall. The NHC intensity
forecast is generally similar to the previous one, lying above the
model consensus.

Zeta continues to move on a generally northwestward track, or about
305/11 kt. The hurricane should move around the southwestern and
western periphery of a mid-level subtropical high centered just east
of Florida. Thereafter, a potent shortwave trough approaching from
the Desert Southwest and Texas is likely to cause the cyclone to
accelerate north-northeastward to northeastward on Wednesday and
move over the southeastern and eastern United States. Model
guidance is in very good agreement, with only some minor
differences, and the new forecast is close to the previous one and
the models consensus. The system should move off the Mid-Atlantic
U.S. coast and become an extratropical cyclone within 3 days, and
dissipate soon thereafter.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected to
continue in portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
through early Tuesday. Heavy rainfall is expected across the
Yucatan Peninsula, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba through
Tuesday, which could lead to flash flooding in urban areas.

2. Hurricane conditions and life-threatening storm surge are
possible along portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, and
Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches are in effect. Residents in the
watch areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

3. Between Tuesday night and Thursday, heavy rainfall is expected
from portions of the central Gulf Coast into the southern
Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States near and in advance of Zeta.
This rainfall will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and minor
river flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 20.2N 87.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 21.3N 88.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
24H 28/0000Z 23.1N 90.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 28/1200Z 25.6N 91.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 29.1N 90.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 29/1200Z 33.8N 85.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/0000Z 38.5N 76.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Advisories

#13 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:51 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Zeta Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
400 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020

...ZETA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 88.4W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM ESE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 560 MI...905 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Intracoastal City,
Louisiana, to Navarre, Florida, including Lake Borgne, Lake
Pontchartrain, Vermilion Bay, Pensacola Bay, and Mobile Bay.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued from Morgan City, Louisiana,
to the Mississippi/Alabama border, including Lake Pontchartrain,
Lake Maurepas, and metropolitan New Orleans.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from the
Mississippi/Alabama border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line,
Florida.

The government of Mexico has changed the Hurricane Warning to a
Tropical Storm Warning from Punta Allen to Progreso, including
Cozumel.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to Navarre Florida
* Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Vermilion Bay, Pensacola Bay, and
Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Allen to Progreso Mexico
* Cozumel
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there
is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water
moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during
the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the
National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was
located over the northern Yucatan Peninsula near latitude 21.0
North, longitude 88.4 West. Zeta is moving toward the northwest near
14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue
today. Zeta should turn toward the north tonight, and a faster
northward to north-northeastward motion is expected on Wednesday.
On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will move over the
southern Gulf of Mexico later this morning, and over the central
Gulf of Mexico tonight. Zeta is forecast to approach the northern
Gulf Coast on Wednesday, and make landfall within the hurricane
warning area late Wednesday or Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Zeta is forecast to re-strengthen when it moves
over the southern Gulf of Mexico later this morning, and become a
hurricane again later today. Zeta is forecast to be at or near
hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf Coast late
Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in the Tropical Storm Warning area within areas of onshore
flow.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Fourchon LA to Dauphin Island AL including Lake Borgne...4-6
ft
Intracoastal City LA to Port Fourchon LA including Vermilion
Bay...2-4 ft
Dauphin Island AL to Navarre FL including Mobile Bay and Pensacola
Bay...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...2-4 ft
Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint
Andrew Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12
inches are possible through Tuesday along and east-northeast of
Zetas track across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and the Cayman
Islands. An additional 1 to 3 inches of rain will be possible across
western Cuba through Tuesday.

An initial area of heavy rains will begin to impact the central Gulf
Coast tonight, spreading north into the Tennessee Valley on
Wednesday. The core of the heavy rains associated with Zeta will
push northeast from eastern Louisiana, across southern Mississippi,
Alabama, northern Georgia through Wednesday night, and through the
southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday. Rainfall
totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches are
expected across these areas, resulting in flash, urban, small
stream, and minor river flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue within the warning
area in Mexico this morning.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area
on the northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions beginning Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions
are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area on the
northern Gulf coast by late Wednesday, and tropical storm
conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area late
Wednesday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday and Wednesday
night over southeastern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the
western Panhandle of Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown




Tropical Storm Zeta Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
400 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020

Satellite imagery and surface data from Mexico indicated that Zeta
made landfall along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula just north of
Tulum near Ciudad Chemuyil just before 0400 UTC. A WeatherFlow
observing site just south of Ciudad Chemuyil reported light winds
and a minimum pressure of 978 mb. Another WeatherFlow site near
Playa del Carmen reported a one-minute sustained wind of 64 kt with
a gust to 76 kt. Hurricane-force winds gusts were also reported on
Cozumel. Since the time of landfall, the center of Zeta has moved
inland over the northern portions of the Yucatan peninsula. Some
weakening has likely occurred, so the initial intensity has been
reduced to 60 kt. Zeta is forecast to emerge off the northern coast
of the Yucatan peninsula over the southern Gulf of Mexico shortly
after 1200 UTC today. Although some slight additional weakening is
possible while the center moves overland early this morning,
environmental conditions consisting of low vertical wind shear and
warm water over the southern Gulf of Mexico should allow for
re-strengthening over the next 24 hour or so. By the time Zeta moves
over the northern Gulf, cooler waters and increasing shear are
likely to cause the hurricane's intensity to level off or perhaps
weaken slightly before landfall. Regardless, Zeta is expected to be
at or near hurricane intensity at landfall. Given Zeta's
acceleration before landfall, strong winds are likely to spread well
inland along northern Gulf coast Wednesday night. The new NHC
intensity forecast is again similar to the previous one, and is
little above the model consensus, in best agreement with the HWRF
model.

Zeta is moving northwestward or 305/12 kt. There has been no change
to the track forecast reasoning. The hurricane will move around the
southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge center east of Florida.
By tonight, a vigorous shortwave trough ejecting out of the
southwestern United States will cause Zeta to turn northward, and
accelerate northward to north-northeastward on Wednesday and
Thursday. This will bring Zeta across the north-central Gulf coast
late Wednesday and over the southeastern United States on Thursday.
The track guidance remains in good agreement with only some slight
timing differences. The updated NHC track forecast is again very
similar to the previous advisory and close to the various consensus
models. The new track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts
necessitate the issuance of Storm Surge, Hurricane, and Tropical
Storm Warnings for a portion of the northern Gulf coast.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the
northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico through this morning. Heavy
rainfall is expected across the Yucatan Peninsula, the Cayman
Islands, and western Cuba today, which could lead to flash flooding
in urban areas.

2. Hurricane conditions and life-threatening storm surge are
expected along portions of the northern Gulf Coast by late
Wednesday, and Storm Surge and Hurricane Warnings are in effect.
Residents in the watch areas should follow any advice given by
local officials.

3. Between tonight and Thursday, heavy rainfall is expected from
portions of the central U.S. Gulf Coast into the southern
Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic States near and in advance of Zeta.
This rainfall will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and minor
river flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 21.0N 88.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND YUCATAN
12H 27/1800Z 22.3N 90.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 28/0600Z 24.4N 91.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 27.5N 91.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 31.7N 88.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
60H 29/1800Z 36.5N 81.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/0600Z 40.3N 70.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Advisories

#14 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:52 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Zeta Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
1000 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020

...ZETA EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST ON WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 89.5W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NNE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to Navarre Florida
* Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Vermilion Bay, Pensacola Bay, and
Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Allen to Progreso Mexico
* Cozumel
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was
located just offshore of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula
near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 89.5 West. Zeta is moving
toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion
is forecast to continue today. Zeta should turn toward the north
tonight, and a faster northward to north-northeastward motion is
expected on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta
will move over the southern Gulf of Mexico later today and over the
central Gulf of Mexico tonight. Zeta is forecast to approach the
northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, make landfall within the
hurricane warning area late Wednesday or Wednesday night, and move
inland across the southeastern United States early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Zeta is forecast to re-strengthen while it moves over the
southern Gulf of Mexico, and become a hurricane again later today.
Zeta is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when it
reaches the northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

STORM SURGE: Along the northern Gulf Coast, the combination of a
dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas
near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground
somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the
time of high tide...

Mouth of the Pearl River to Dauphin Island AL...5-8 ft
Port Fourchon LA to the Mouth of the Pearl River including Lake
Borgne...4-6 ft
Dauphin Island AL to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft
Intracoastal City LA to Port Fourchon LA including Vermilion
Bay...2-4 ft
AL/FL border to Navarre FL including Pensacola Bay...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...2-4 ft
Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint
Andrew Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

Water levels along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
will gradually subside today as Zeta moves away from the area.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue within the warning
area in Mexico for the next few hours.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area
on the northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions beginning Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions
are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area on the northern
Gulf coast by late Wednesday, and tropical storm conditions are
possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area late Wednesday.

Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread well inland across
portions of southeast Mississippi and southern Alabama Wednesday
night.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12
inches are possible through today across the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico and the Cayman Islands. An additional 1 to 3 inches of rain
will be possible across western Cuba through Tuesday.

An initial area of heavy rains will begin to impact the central Gulf
Coast tonight, with the core of heavy rains spreading north into the
Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic through Thursday, near and in advance
of Zeta. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6
inches are expected across these areas, resulting in flash, urban,
small stream, and minor river flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday and Wednesday
night over southeastern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the
western Panhandle of Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch




Tropical Storm Zeta Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
1000 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020

High-resolution GOES-16 visible satellite images indicate that the
center of Zeta has moved just offshore of the northern coast of
Yucatan. Based on Air Force and NOAA aircraft observations a little
while ago, after the cyclone's interaction with the Yucatan, the
maximum winds had decreased to near 55 kt. The cloud pattern of the
storm is well organized, with a small Central Dense Overcast and
numerous banding features. Given this, Zeta is likely to
restrengthen as it moves over the warm waters of the southern Gulf
of Mexico and in a low-shear environment today through tomorrow
morning. When the cyclone nears the northern Gulf Coast in 30-36
hours, decreasing oceanic heat content and possibly stronger shear
will likely halt the intensification process. The official
intensity forecast shows slight weakening near landfall, but Zeta is
likely to be at or near hurricane strength when it crosses the
coastline. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the model
consensus and a blend of the LGEM and Decay-SHIPS guidance.

The storm continues its generally northwestward motion, or at around
305/12 kt. Zeta will move northwestward to northward around the
southwestern and western periphery of a mid-level high pressure area
centered east of Florida for the next 24 hours or so. Then, a
strong 500-mb shortwave trough approaching from the west should
cause Zeta to accelerate north-northeastward to northeastward by
late Wednesday and Thursday. This will bring Zeta across the
north-central Gulf coast late Wednesday and over the southeastern
United States on Thursday. Aside from some speed differences, the
track models are in good agreement and have shown good run-to-run
consistency. The official track forecast is about the same as the
previous one and close to the model consensus.

Given Zeta's acceleration near landfall, strong winds are likely
to spread well inland along the northern Gulf coast Wednesday
night.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected along portions of the
northern Gulf Coast by late Wednesday, with the highest inundation
occurring somewhere between the Mouth of the Pearl River and Dauphin
Island, Alabama. Residents in the Storm Surge Warning area should
follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected by late Wednesday within
portions of the Hurricane Warning area between Morgan City,
Louisiana, and the Mississippi/Alabama border. Damaging winds,
especially in gusts, will spread well inland across portions of
southeast Mississippi and southern Alabama Wednesday night due to
Zetas fast forward speed.

3. Between tonight and Thursday, heavy rainfall is expected from
portions of the central U.S. Gulf Coast into the Ohio Valley and
Mid-Atlantic States near and in advance of Zeta. This rainfall
will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding.

4. Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the
northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next few hours.
Heavy rainfall is expected across the Yucatan Peninsula, the Cayman
Islands, and western Cuba today, which will lead to flash flooding
in urban areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 21.6N 89.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 23.1N 90.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 25.7N 91.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 29.3N 89.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 34.2N 85.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 30/0000Z 38.5N 76.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/1200Z 41.0N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Advisories

#15 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 27, 2020 3:46 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Zeta Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
400 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020

...ZETA EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND STORM SURGE TO A
PORTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 90.3W
ABOUT 450 MI...720 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning from Intracoastal City, Louisiana, to the
Mouth of the Atchafalaya River has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Navarre Florida
* Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Pensacola Bay and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was
located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 90.3 West. Zeta is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward
the north is expected tonight, and a faster northward to north-
northeastward motion is expected on Wednesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Zeta will move over the central Gulf of Mexico
tonight. Zeta is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast on
Wednesday, make landfall within the hurricane warning area late
Wednesday or Wednesday night, and move across the southeastern and
eastern United States on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Zeta is forecast to become a hurricane again tonight and is
forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when it reaches the
northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

STORM SURGE: Along the northern Gulf Coast, the combination of a
dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas
near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground
somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the
time of high tide...

Mouth of the Pearl River to Dauphin Island AL...5-8 ft
Port Fourchon LA to the Mouth of the Pearl River including Lake
Borgne...4-6 ft
Dauphin Island AL to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft
Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Port Fourchon LA...2-4 ft
AL/FL border to Navarre FL including Pensacola Bay...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...2-4 ft
Intracoastal City LA to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River
including Vermilion Bay...1-3 ft
Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint
Andrew Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday, with
tropical storm conditions beginning Wednesday afternoon. Tropical
storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning
area on the northern Gulf Coast by late Wednesday, and tropical
storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area
late Wednesday.

Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread well inland across
portions of southeast Mississippi and southern Alabama Wednesday
night.

RAINFALL: An initial area of heavy rains will begin to impact the
central Gulf Coast tonight, with the core of heavy rains spreading
north into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic through Thursday, near
and in advance of Zeta. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with
isolated amounts of 6 inches are expected across these areas,
resulting in flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding.

Zeta will produce an additional 1 to 3 inches of rain across
portions of western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula through
tonight.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are expected Wednesday and Wednesday
night over southeastern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the
western Panhandle of Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch




Tropical Storm Zeta Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
400 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020

Visible satellite images show that the low-level center of the storm
is slightly displaced to the north of the main area of deep
convection. Since the organization of the tropical cyclone has not
yet improved, the current intensity is held at 55 kt, which is a
blend of subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. Zeta should
move over warm waters and through a moist, low-shear environment
through tomorrow morning, so strengthening is anticipated, and the
cyclone is likely to regain hurricane intensity within the next 6-12
hours. The NHC intensity forecast is on the high side of the model
guidance suite. Zeta is expected to interact with a frontal zone
and become an extratropical cyclone as it approaches the eastern
United States in a couple of days. After moving off the U.S. east
coast, the system is forecast to become absorbed by the same frontal
system.

Zeta continues to move northwestward, or at about 310/12 kt. The
expected large-scale steering flow evolution remains about the same
as before. Zeta is expected to turn northward and move along the
western side of a mid-level anticyclone centered east of Florida
through Wednesday morning. Then, a vigorous 500-mb shortwave trough
approaching from the west should cause Zeta to accelerate north-
northeastward and move inland along the central Gulf Coast by late
Wednesday. The cyclone should continue to accelerate ahead of the
trough and move over the southeastern and eastern U.S. through
Thursday. The official track forecast was nudged just slightly
westward in 24 to 36 hours to be in better agreement with the latest
GFS and ECMWF explicit model fields.

Given Zeta's acceleration near landfall, strong winds are likely to
spread well inland along the northern Gulf coast Wednesday night.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected along portions of the
northern Gulf Coast by late Wednesday, with the highest inundation
occurring somewhere between the Mouth of the Pearl River and Dauphin
Island, Alabama. Residents in the Storm Surge Warning area should
follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected by late Wednesday within
portions of the Hurricane Warning area between Morgan City,
Louisiana, and the Mississippi/Alabama border. Damaging winds,
especially in gusts, will spread well inland across portions of
southeast Mississippi and southern Alabama Wednesday night due to
Zeta's fast forward speed.

3. Localized heavy rainfall from Zeta will continue tonight in
portions of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and western Cuba where
additional flash flooding is possible in urban areas. Tonight
through Thursday heavy rainfall is expected from portions of the
central U.S. Gulf Coast into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic
States. This rainfall will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and
minor river flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 22.7N 90.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 24.5N 91.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 27.9N 91.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 32.4N 87.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 29/1800Z 37.2N 81.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 30/0600Z 40.0N 70.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Advisories

#16 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:56 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Zeta Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020

...ZETA FORECAST TO BE A FAST-MOVING HURRICANE THAT BRINGS A
LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND STRONG WINDS, STARTING IN
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 91.2W
ABOUT 390 MI...625 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 435 MI...695 KM S OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Navarre Florida
* Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Pensacola Bay and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was
located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 91.2 West. Zeta is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the
north is expected overnight, and a faster northward to
north-northeastward motion is expected on Wednesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Zeta will move over the central Gulf
of Mexico overnight. Zeta is forecast to make landfall in
southeastern Louisiana Wednesday afternoon, move close to the
Mississippi coast Wednesday evening, and move across the
southeastern and eastern United States on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Zeta is forecast to become a hurricane again
overnight and reach the northern Gulf Coast Wednesday as a
hurricane on Wednesday afternoon before weakening over the
southeastern United States on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 990 mb (29.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

STORM SURGE: Along the northern Gulf Coast, the combination of a
dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas
near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground
somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the
time of high tide...

Mouth of the Pearl River to Dauphin Island AL...5-8 ft
Port Fourchon LA to the Mouth of the Pearl River including Lake
Borgne...4-6 ft
Dauphin Island AL to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft
Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Port Fourchon LA...2-4 ft
AL/FL border to Navarre FL including Pensacola Bay...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...2-4 ft
Intracoastal City LA to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River
including Vermilion Bay...1-3 ft
Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint
Andrew Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast Wednesday afternoon, with
tropical storm conditions beginning Wednesday morning. Tropical
storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning
area on the northern Gulf Coast by late Wednesday, and tropical
storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area
Wednesday afternoon.

Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread well inland across
portions of southeast Mississippi and southern Alabama Wednesday
night.

RAINFALL: Locally heavy rains in advance of Zeta will continue to
expand and move north from the central Gulf Coast tonight through
Wednesday, eventually affecting the Ohio Valley to the central
Appalachians Wednesday night and Thursday. Meanwhile, the core of
heavy rains near Zeta will track from the central Gulf Coast to the
Mid-Atlantic late Wednesday through late Thursday. Rainfall totals
of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches are expected
across these areas, resulting in flash, urban, small stream, and
minor river flooding.

Zeta may produce an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain
across portions of western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula
through the rest of tonight.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are expected Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday night over southeastern portions of Louisiana and
Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the western Panhandle of Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake




Tropical Storm Zeta Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020

Satellite images show that Zeta is becoming better organized tonight
with a ragged eye feature now present, plenty of deep convection and
a more symmetric appearance. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft has found increasing winds on this flight, recently
recording peak flight-level winds of 65 kt and a minimum pressure of
around 990 mb. The initial wind speed is raised to 60 kt on the
basis of the wind data.

The improving cloud pattern of Zeta is usually one that favors
intensification in the short term. In addition, microwave data from
a couple hours ago indicated that a 37 GHz low-level ring was
present, which also can be a harbinger of strengthening, and
sometimes that strengthening is on the rapid side. Since the storm
remains over warm water with fairly light shear, the NHC forecast
still anticipates Zeta regaining hurricane intensity within the next
6 hours and making a second landfall as a hurricane. The new NHC
forecast is a little higher than the previous one, remaining on the
high side of the guidance. After landfall, Zeta is likely to become
an extratropical cyclone while it approaches the eastern United
States in a couple of days, and become absorbed by the same frontal
system.

Zeta is moving northwestward a little faster tonight (325/13 kt).
The storm is expected to turn northward and move along the western
side of a mid-level anticyclone centered east of Florida through
Wednesday morning. A deep cold low (responsible for the southern
Plains ice storm) approaching from the west will cause Zeta to
sharply accelerate north-northeastward and move inland along the
southeastern Louisiana coast Wednesday afternoon. The cyclone
should continue to accelerate ahead of the trough and move over the
southeastern and eastern U.S. through Thursday. Similar to the
last forecast, the official track forecast was moved slightly
westward during the first 24 hours, not too dissimilar from a
consensus of the latest GFS, UKMET and ECMWF forecasts.

Given Zeta's acceleration near landfall, strong winds are likely to
spread well inland along the northern Gulf coast Wednesday night.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected along portions of the
northern Gulf Coast by late Wednesday, with the highest inundation
occurring somewhere between the Mouth of the Pearl River and Dauphin
Island, Alabama. Residents in the Storm Surge Warning area should
follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected Wednesday afternoon within
portions of the Hurricane Warning area between Morgan City,
Louisiana, and the Mississippi/Alabama border. Damaging winds,
especially in gusts, will spread well inland across portions of
southeast Mississippi and southern Alabama Wednesday night due to
Zeta's fast forward speed.

3. Localized heavy rainfall from Zeta will continue tonight in
portions of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and western Cuba where
additional flash flooding is possible in urban areas. Between
tonight and Thursday, heavy rainfall is expected from portions of
the central U.S. Gulf Coast into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic
States near and in advance of Zeta. This rainfall will lead to
flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 23.8N 91.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 26.0N 91.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 30.2N 89.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
36H 29/1200Z 35.0N 84.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 30/0000Z 39.5N 74.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Advisories

#17 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 28, 2020 4:25 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Zeta Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
400 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT ZETA IS
STRENGTHENING...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND STRONG WINDS EXPECTED ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.1N 91.8W
ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SSW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning along the coast of the Florida panhandle
has been extended eastward to the Walton/Bay County Line.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Navarre Florida
* Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Pensacola Bay and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Walton/Bay County Line Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Zeta was located
near latitude 25.1 North, longitude 91.8 West. Zeta is moving toward
the north-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the north
is expected soon, and a faster northward to north-northeastward
motion is expected to begin later this morning. On the forecast
track, the center of Zeta will approach the northern Gulf coast
this morning and make landfall in southeastern Louisiana this
afternoon. Zeta will move close to the Mississippi coast this
evening, and move across the southeastern and eastern United States
on Thursday.

Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter Aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph
(140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is
forecast this morning, and Zeta is expected to reach the northern
Gulf Coast as a hurricane before weakening over the southeastern
United States on Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance
aircraft data is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

STORM SURGE: Along the northern Gulf Coast, the combination of a
dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas
near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground
somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the
time of high tide...

Mouth of the Pearl River to Dauphin Island AL...6-9 ft
Port Fourchon LA to the Mouth of the Pearl River including Lake
Borgne...5-7 ft
Dauphin Island AL to AL/FL border...3-5 ft
Mobile Bay...4-6 ft
Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Port Fourchon LA...3-5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...3-5 ft
AL/FL border to Navarre FL including Pensacola Bay...2-4 ft
Intracoastal City LA to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River including
Vermilion Bay...1-3 ft
Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint
Andrew Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast this afternoon, with
tropical storm conditions beginning later this morning. Tropical
storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning
area on the northern Gulf Coast by late today, and tropical
storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area
this afternoon.

Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread well inland across
portions of southeast Mississippi and southern Alabama this
evening and tonight.

RAINFALL: Locally heavy rains in advance of Zeta will continue to
expand and move north from the central Gulf Coast today, eventually
affecting the Ohio Valley to the central Appalachians tonight and
Thursday. Meanwhile, the core of heavy rains near Zeta will track
from the central Gulf Coast to the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon
through Thursday evening. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with
isolated amounts of 6 inches are expected across these areas,
resulting in flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are expected this afternoon through
tonight over southeastern parts of Louisiana and Mississippi,
southern Alabama, and the western Panhandle of Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown





Hurricane Zeta Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
400 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

The satellite presentation of Zeta has improved significantly
overnight with deep convection wrapping around an eye that at times
as been fairly well defined. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft that has just began its reconnaissance mission into Zeta
has reported a pressure that has fallen to 982 mb and a 25-30
n-mi-wide eye during it first pass through the center. It is
somewhat surprising that the plane did not report stronger winds
during its northeast eyewall pass given the improved satellite
presentation, and using a blend of the aircraft data and recent
objective and subjective satellite estimates yields and initial
intensity of 75 kt. It is possible the winds have yet to catch up
to the improved satellite appearance, but since Zeta will moving
over warm waters and in a light wind shear environment this morning
some additional strengthening is likely. Although cooler waters
and increasing southwesterly upper-level winds over the northern
Gulf of Mexico are likely to cause the cyclone's intensity to
level-off or even come down slightly, Zeta is expected to reach the
northern Gulf coast as significant hurricane by late this afternoon.
The NHC intensity forecast is at the upper-end of the guidance, a
little above the latest HWRF prediction. After landfall, Zeta will
weaken while it moves over the southeastern United States, but the
cyclone is forecast to become an extratropical gale-force low
pressure area off the Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday night. The
post-tropical cyclone should be absorbed by frontal boundary over
the western Atlantic on Friday.

Zeta has turned north-northwestward and has begun to accelerate as
anticipated. A vigorous upper-level low moving into west Texas
will cause Zeta to accelerate north-northeastward today, which will
bring the center of the hurricane over southeastern Louisiana by
late this afternoon. The cyclone is expected to continue to
accelerate ahead of the trough over the southeastern United States
tonight and Thursday. The dynamical model are in very good
agreement and the latest NHC track is a blend of the various global
models. The new track forecast is very close the previous official
forecast.

Given Zeta's acceleration near landfall, strong winds are likely
to spread well inland along the northern Gulf coast this evening
and tonight.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected along portions of the
northern Gulf Coast by late today, with the highest inundation
occurring somewhere between the Mouth of the Pearl River and Dauphin
Island, Alabama. Residents in the Storm Surge Warning area should
follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected this afternoon within portions
of the Hurricane Warning area between Morgan City, Louisiana, and
the Mississippi/Alabama border. Damaging winds, especially in gusts,
will spread well inland across portions of southeast Mississippi and
southern and central Alabama tonight due to Zeta's fast forward
speed.

3. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall is expected from portions of the
central U.S. Gulf Coast into the Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley,
Southern to Central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic States near and
in advance of Zeta. This rainfall will lead to flash, urban, small
stream, and minor river flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 25.1N 91.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 27.9N 91.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 32.8N 87.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
36H 29/1800Z 37.5N 79.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 30/0600Z 40.5N 67.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Advisories

#18 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 28, 2020 6:43 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Zeta Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
700 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

...ZETA CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND STRONG WINDS EXPECTED ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.0N 91.7W
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM SSW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Navarre Florida
* Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Pensacola Bay and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Walton/Bay County Line Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Zeta was located
near latitude 26.0 North, longitude 91.7 West. Zeta is moving
toward the north near 17 mph (28 km/h). A faster northward to
north-northeastward motion is expected to begin later this morning.
On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will approach the northern
Gulf Coast this morning and make landfall in southeastern Louisiana
this afternoon. Zeta will move close to the Mississippi coast this
evening, and move across the southeastern and eastern United States
on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast this
morning, and Zeta is expected to reach the northern Gulf Coast as a
hurricane before weakening over the southeastern United States on
Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force and NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

STORM SURGE: Along the northern Gulf Coast, the combination of a
dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas
near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground
somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the
time of high tide...

Mouth of the Pearl River to Dauphin Island AL...6-9 ft
Port Fourchon LA to the Mouth of the Pearl River including Lake
Borgne...5-7 ft
Dauphin Island AL to AL/FL border...3-5 ft
Mobile Bay...4-6 ft
Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Port Fourchon LA...3-5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...3-5 ft
AL/FL border to Navarre FL including Pensacola Bay...2-4 ft
Intracoastal City LA to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River including
Vermilion Bay...1-3 ft
Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint
Andrew Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast this afternoon, with
tropical storm conditions beginning later this morning. Tropical
storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning
area on the northern Gulf Coast by late today, and tropical
storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area
this afternoon.

Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread well inland across
portions of southeast Mississippi and southern and central Alabama
this evening and tonight.

RAINFALL: Locally heavy rains in advance of Zeta will continue to
expand and move north from the central Gulf Coast today, eventually
affecting the Ohio Valley to the central Appalachians tonight and
Thursday. Meanwhile, the core of heavy rains near Zeta will track
from the central Gulf Coast to the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon
through Thursday evening. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with
isolated amounts of 6 inches are expected across these areas,
resulting in flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are expected this afternoon through
tonight over southeastern parts of Louisiana and Mississippi,
southern Alabama, and the western Panhandle of Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Advisories

#19 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:52 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Zeta Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY IN THE
WARNING AREAS LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.9N 91.7W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SSW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch west of Morgan City to Intracoastal City,
Louisiana is discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Navarre Florida
* Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Pensacola Bay and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Walton/Bay County Line Florida

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Zeta was located
near latitude 26.9 North, longitude 91.7 West. Zeta is moving toward
the north near 18 mph (30 km/h). A faster northward to north-
northeastward motion is expected through tonight followed by an even
faster northeastward motion on Thursday and an east-northeastward
motion early Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will
make landfall in southeastern Louisiana this afternoon. Zeta will
then move close to the Mississippi coast this evening, and move
across the southeastern and eastern United States on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible during the
next few hours, and Zeta is expected to reach the northern Gulf
Coast as a hurricane before weakening over the southeastern United
States on Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft observations is 976 mb (28.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

STORM SURGE: Along the northern Gulf Coast, the combination of a
dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas
near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground
somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the
time of high tide...

Mouth of the Pearl River to Dauphin Island AL...6-9 ft
Port Fourchon LA to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...5-8 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Mouth of the Pearl River
including Lake Borgne...5-7 ft
Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Port Fourchon LA...4-6 ft
Mobile Bay...4-6 ft
Dauphin Island AL to AL/FL border...3-5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...3-5 ft
AL/FL border to Navarre FL including Pensacola Bay...2-4 ft
Intracoastal City LA to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River including
Vermilion Bay...1-3 ft
Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint
Andrew Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast this afternoon, with
tropical storm conditions beginning later this morning. Tropical
storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning
area on the northern Gulf Coast by late today.

Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread well inland across
portions of southeastern Mississippi, Alabama, and northern Georgia
this evening through early Thursday morning, and into the Carolinas
and southeastern Virginia on Thursday. Wind gusts could be
especially severe across the southern Appalachian Mountains on
Thursday.

RAINFALL: Areas of heavy rainfall, both in advance of and along the
track of Zeta, will impact areas from the central Gulf Coast to
the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, and eastward into the
southern to central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic today through
Thursday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts
of 6 inches are expected across these areas, resulting in flash,
urban, small stream, and minor river flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are expected this afternoon through
tonight over southeastern parts of Louisiana and Mississippi,
southern Alabama, and the western Panhandle of Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



Hurricane Zeta Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

Zeta has a well-organized cloud pattern on satellite images, and the
eye has been fairly well-defined. Strong upper-level outflow is
evident over the northern semicircle of the hurricane. Reports from
Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
system had continued to strengthen over the past few hours. Peak
700-mb flight level winds were 89 kt, which equates to a maximum
surface wind of about 80 kt, and The central pressure has fallen to
976 mb. Zeta still has a few hours to intensify before it begins to
move over the cooler waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico, and
southwesterly shear is likely to increase by the time the center
reaches the coast. Even if a little weakening begins later today,
however, Zeta should maintain hurricane strength through landfall.
The official intensity forecast is near the high end of the model
guidance. In 36 hours or so, the global models clearly depict the
system as a frontal wave approaching the United States east coast so
the official forecast shows an extratropical cyclone at that point
and beyond. After 48 hours, the models show the low becoming
elongated and absorbed into the frontal zone.

The hurricane has turned northward and is now moving at around
010/16 kt. A strong 500-mb trough moving into Texas will continue
to move eastward during the next 36-48 hours. The flow ahead of
this trough will cause Zeta to accelerate north-northeastward and
move inland along the central Gulf Coast in 6-12 hours. On
Thursday, the cyclone will then move northeastward on the east
side of the trough, at an even faster pace, over the southeastern
United States. By early Friday, the system should move east-
northeastward in the westerlies and into the western Atlantic as an
extratropical cyclone. The official track forecast is close to the
previous one and generally follows the dynamical model consensus.

Given Zeta's acceleration near and after landfall, strong winds are
likely to spread well inland over the southeastern U.S. this evening
and early Thursday.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected along portions of the
northern Gulf Coast beginning later today, with the highest
inundation occurring between Port Fourchon, Louisiana, and Dauphin
Island, Alabama. Residents in the Storm Surge Warning area should
follow any advice given by local officials. Overtopping of local,
non-federal levee systems is possible within southeastern Louisiana
outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected this afternoon and evening
within portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the southeastern
Louisiana and Mississippi coasts. Tropical storm conditions are
expected within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area along
the Alabama and far western Florida Panhandle coasts.

3. Strong, damaging wind gusts, which could cause tree damage and
power outages, will spread well inland across portions of
southeastern Mississippi, Alabama, northern Georgia, the Carolinas,
and southeastern Virginia tonight and Thursday due to Zeta's fast
forward speed. Wind gusts could be especially severe across the
southern Appalachian Mountains on Thursday.

4. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall is expected from portions of
the central U.S. Gulf Coast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, Ohio
Valley, southern to central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic States
near and in advance of Zeta. This rainfall will lead to flash,
urban, small stream, and minor river flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 26.9N 91.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 30.1N 89.9W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
24H 29/1200Z 35.3N 83.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 30/0000Z 39.1N 74.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 30/1200Z 41.5N 63.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Advisories

#20 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 28, 2020 12:54 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Zeta Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
100 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

...ZETA STRENGTHENS SOME MORE...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO A PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 91.1W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 155 MI...255 KM SSW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Navarre Florida
* Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Pensacola Bay and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Walton/Bay County Line Florida

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Zeta was located
near latitude 27.9 North, longitude 91.1 West. Zeta is moving
toward the north-northeast near 20 mph (35 km/h). A faster
north-northeastward motion is expected through tonight followed by
an even faster northeastward motion on Thursday and an
east-northeastward motion early Friday. On the forecast track, the
center of Zeta will make landfall in southeastern Louisiana this
afternoon. Zeta will then move close to the Mississippi coast this
evening, and move across the southeastern and eastern United States
on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible during
the next few hours, and Zeta is expected to reach the northern Gulf
Coast as a hurricane before weakening over the southeastern United
States on Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 975 mb (28.79 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

STORM SURGE: Along the northern Gulf Coast, the combination of a
dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas
near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground
somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the
time of high tide...

Mouth of the Pearl River to Dauphin Island AL...6-9 ft
Port Fourchon LA to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...5-8 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Mouth of the Pearl River
including Lake Borgne...5-7 ft
Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Port Fourchon LA...4-6 ft
Mobile Bay...4-6 ft
Dauphin Island AL to AL/FL border...3-5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...3-5 ft
AL/FL border to Navarre FL including Pensacola Bay...2-4 ft
Intracoastal City LA to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River including
Vermilion Bay...1-3 ft
Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint
Andrew Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast later this afternoon, with
tropical storm conditions beginning within the next few hours.
Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm
Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast by late today.

Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread well inland across
portions of southeastern Mississippi, Alabama, and northern Georgia
this evening through early Thursday morning, and into the Carolinas
and southeastern Virginia on Thursday. Wind gusts could be
especially severe across the southern Appalachian Mountains on
Thursday.

RAINFALL: Areas of heavy rainfall, both in advance of and along the
track of Zeta, will impact areas from the central Gulf Coast to
the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, and eastward into the
southern to central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic today through
Thursday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts
of 6 inches are expected across these areas, resulting in flash,
urban, small stream, and minor river flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are expected this afternoon through
tonight over southeastern parts of Louisiana and Mississippi,
southern Alabama, and the western Panhandle of Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

Hourly Tropical Cyclone Updates will begin at 200 PM CDT. These
can be found under WMO header WTNT63 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCUAT3.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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