WPAC: ATSANI - Post-Tropical

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Nancy Smar
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WPAC: ATSANI - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby Nancy Smar » Tue Oct 27, 2020 3:31 am

90W.INVEST
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#2 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Oct 27, 2020 3:37 am

Finally here huh? Could this be strongest of the successive storms?
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#3 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Oct 27, 2020 3:54 am

Very strong ensembles.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#4 Postby aspen » Tue Oct 27, 2020 5:45 am

Could this finally become the strong Marianas typhoon we’ve all been waiting for? 99W had that chance, and while it seems likely to be yet another hurricane-intensity landfall in the Philippines (they just can’t catch a break this month), models have been trending to something more like Molave.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#5 Postby aspen » Tue Oct 27, 2020 7:41 am

If 90W becomes TS Atsani as soon as the GFS is expecting, it’ll be rather south and within SSTs as high as 31C, capable of supporting a sub-890 mbar system. It could very easily go nuclear if it’s able to develop a core and be within a favorable wind environment.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#6 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 27, 2020 7:58 am

90W INVEST 201027 1200 7.2N 152.6E WPAC 15 1008
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#7 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 27, 2020 8:04 am

Recap the 00z EURO run. Peaks it at 939 mb with a recurving track east of Okinawa.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#8 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 27, 2020 8:06 am

GFS 06z starts development in just 60 hours now. Peaks it at 927 mb, lowest pressure so far before a possibly Okinawa landfall.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#9 Postby aspen » Tue Oct 27, 2020 8:08 am

Go look at the HWRF-P run for 99W. It shows 90W off in the corner; it’s a Cat1 on Thursday night and explodes into a 930s system by Halloween, within SSTs of up to 30.5C. The HWRF is often hyper-aggressive in its early runs with newly forming systems, but for once this doesn’t seem that outlandish.

Also, assuming 99W forms first, when 90W becomes a designated TC with a name, it’ll be designated 2020 (20th TC of ‘20). Oh boy....
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#10 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 27, 2020 8:22 am

Image

Oh dang
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#11 Postby dexterlabio » Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:12 am

aspen wrote:Go look at the HWRF-P run for 99W. It shows 90W off in the corner; it’s a Cat1 on Thursday night and explodes into a 930s system by Halloween, within SSTs of up to 30.5C. The HWRF is often hyper-aggressive in its early runs with newly forming systems, but for once this doesn’t seem that outlandish.

Also, assuming 99W forms first, when 90W becomes a designated TC with a name, it’ll be designated 2020 (20th TC of ‘20). Oh boy....



It could be the highlight of the 2020 WPAC season...but I do hope it recurves out to sea because SE Asia and East Asia already had much unfortunate share of TC landfalls.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#12 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:20 am

A lot of La Niña years tend to produce a monster over here. Could this be the one? We are about to find out...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#13 Postby aspen » Tue Oct 27, 2020 11:10 am

12z GFS: still develops Atsani below the latitude of Guam and bombs it out into a major by 120 hours.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#14 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 27, 2020 11:17 am

150 hours bombs out to 923 mb.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#15 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 27, 2020 12:26 pm

12z peak of 921 mb and keeps it below -930 for 3 days.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#16 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Oct 27, 2020 3:37 pm

ECMWF 12Z peaks it as 921 mb, and makes it approach to Northern Luzon at the end of the run as 925 mb
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#17 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:06 pm

Hayabusa wrote:ECMWF 12Z peaks it as 921 mb, and makes it approach to Northern Luzon at the end of the run as 925 mb
https://i.imgur.com/dPiwKE7.png

921mb from the EURO is big yikes :double:
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#18 Postby aspen » Tue Oct 27, 2020 5:22 pm

18z GFS continues with a TS late in the week, a typhoon on Halloween, and a major the next day.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#19 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 27, 2020 8:33 pm

A drop of 40 mb in between frames in 168-192 hours? :eek:

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#20 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Oct 27, 2020 11:29 pm

Weaker on 0z GFS but slams Luzon as a Cat 4. Track resembles Mangkhut 2018.
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