WPAC: ATSANI - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: ATSANI - Tropical Storm

#101 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 30, 2020 7:01 pm

WDPN32 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (ATSANI)
WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (ATSANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 232 NM
NORTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY DISORGANIZED AND WEAK SYSTEM, WITH MODERATE
DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION NEAR THE ASSESSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION FEATURES PRESENT IN THE EIR LOOP AND IS
PLACED WITH OVERALL POOR CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE LACK OF CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T2.0 (30 KTS, PGTW AND RJTD) AND IS SLIGHTLY BELOW AN ADVANCED
DVORAK TECHNIQUE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS). THE
OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH
(20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT OFFSET
SLIGHTLY BY FAVORABLE (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST).
TD ATSANI IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 23W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH
TAU 72 ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MARGINAL AS WARM (29-30 CELSIUS)
SST ARE OFFSET BY CONTINUED MODERATE TO HIGH (15-25 KTS) VWS AND
PERIODS OF CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT. THIS MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WILL
ALLOW FOR ONLY GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION DURING THIS TIME AND RESULT
IN AN INTENSITY OF 70 KTS BY TAU 72. THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO THE TIMING OF AN
INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST THAT WILL RESULT IN
AN EROSION AND SUBSEQUENT REPOSITIONING OF THE STEERING RIDGE. THIS
REORIENTATION MAY ALLOW FOR THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL THAT IS CURRENTLY NOT REFLECTED IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, AND
WOULD ALLOW FOR POSSIBLE RAPID INTENSIFICATION DURING THIS TIME.
NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE ALSO DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY WITH A
SPREAD IN ACROSS TRACK MODEL SOLUTIONS OF 301 NM AT TAU 72.
SPECIFICALLY, THE NAVGEM TRACK SOLUTION LIES SIGNIFICANTLY NORTHWARD
OF THE OTHER JTWC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS MEMBERS. THIS SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS LENDS OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THIS INITIAL PORTION OF
THE JTWC FORECAST, WHICH IS PLACED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE NORTHWARD BIAS DUE TO THE NAVGEM TRACK.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, THE REORIENTATION OF THE STEERING
RIDGE DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LEAD
TO A WESTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE DURING THIS TIME WITH VWS DECREASING TO 5-10
KTS BY TAU 120. THIS DECREASED VWS, COUPLED WITH CONTINUED WARM SST,
WILL ALLOW FOR FURTHER, GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO 90 KTS BY TAU 96,
WHICH THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL POOR AGREEMENT
DURING THIS TIME, LARGELY DUE TO THE EXTREME NORTHWARD BIAS OF THE
NAVGEM TRACK. THE 545 NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 120 DECREASES TO
315 NM WHEN REMOVING THE NAVGEM TRACK FROM THE TRACK GUIDANCE. THIS
SPREAD IN TRACK GUIDANCE LENDS OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE
REMAINDER OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED SLIGHTLY SOUTH
OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE NORTHWARD BIAS DUE TO THE
NAVGEM TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: ATSANI - Tropical Storm

#102 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Oct 30, 2020 8:12 pm

ASCAT bulls-eye
Looks like multiple circulations within Atsani.
Image
Image
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Re: WPAC: ATSANI - Tropical Storm

#103 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Oct 30, 2020 8:14 pm

23W ATSANI 201031 0000 13.3N 139.7E WPAC 30 1004
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Re: WPAC: ATSANI - Tropical Storm

#104 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 30, 2020 9:35 pm

Image

Peak intensity raised to category 3.
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Re: WPAC: ATSANI - Tropical Storm

#105 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 30, 2020 9:36 pm

TPPN10 PGTW 310028

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (ATSANI)

B. 31/0000Z

C. 13.38N

D. 139.85E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT 2.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
30/1855Z 12.52N 141.00E SSMS
30/1903Z 12.47N 140.88E SSMS


ELIAS
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Re: WPAC: ATSANI - Tropical Storm

#106 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Oct 30, 2020 9:37 pm

euro6208 wrote:https://i.imgur.com/enQTQMk.gif

Peak intensity raised to category 3.

Oh no... Another SW dive forecast :eek:
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Re: WPAC: ATSANI - Tropical Storm

#107 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Oct 30, 2020 9:37 pm

This storm I don't know what to say :lol: , could it surprise us later on like Goni did?
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Re: WPAC: ATSANI - Tropical Storm

#108 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 30, 2020 9:41 pm

Had Atsani been further east than Goni or slowed down a bit (it was moving at over 20 knots at some point), it would have been a monster 4/5 typhoon that the models were blowing up a few days ago. Heck we could have been tracking 2 cat 5's at the same time. Instead it got sheared by Goni's outflow.

Still alot of potential for Atsani.
Last edited by euro6208 on Fri Oct 30, 2020 9:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: ATSANI - Tropical Storm

#109 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Oct 30, 2020 9:43 pm

I still think this storm has some big potential down the road. Has a shot to become the next super typhoon when Goni is done. Probably won't be near as strong as Goni but unfortunately we could be looking at back to back major typhoons for the Philippines
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Re: WPAC: ATSANI - Tropical Storm

#110 Postby doomhaMwx » Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:01 pm

This is not really a TD (JTWC) nor a TS (JMA) right now. They're just issuing TC advisories just because they already began doing so and models still show development.

Image
Image
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Re: WPAC: ATSANI - Tropical Storm

#111 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:15 pm

Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:This is not really a TD (JTWC) nor a TS (JMA) right now. They're just issuing TC advisories just because they already began doing so and models still show development.



From the reasoning:

THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KTS IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN MULTI-AGENCY
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KTS, PGTW AND RJTD)
DUE TO THE 20-25 KTS WINDS PRESENT IN THE SCATTEROMETRY DATA FROM A
302256Z ASCAT-A PASS.
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Re: WPAC: ATSANI - Tropical Storm

#112 Postby doomhaMwx » Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:39 pm

euro6208 wrote:
Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:This is not really a TD (JTWC) nor a TS (JMA) right now. They're just issuing TC advisories just because they already began doing so and models still show development.



From the reasoning:

THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KTS IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN MULTI-AGENCY
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KTS, PGTW AND RJTD)
DUE TO THE 20-25 KTS WINDS PRESENT IN THE SCATTEROMETRY DATA FROM A
302256Z ASCAT-A PASS.

And very disorganized. I doubt JTWC would call this a TD on normal occasions.
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Re: WPAC: ATSANI - Tropical Storm

#113 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Oct 30, 2020 11:14 pm

00Z makes landfall in Central Luzon as an STS
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Re: WPAC: ATSANI - Tropical Storm

#114 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Oct 31, 2020 1:56 am

06Z JMA now only peaks this to 60 knots but that's the end of the forecast hour it may intensify more after that
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Re: WPAC: ATSANI - Tropical Storm

#115 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Oct 31, 2020 2:02 am

looks sh*t

Image


Edit: I posted the wrong imgur link - thanks Dexterlabio for pointing out
Last edited by mrbagyo on Sat Oct 31, 2020 2:13 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: WPAC: ATSANI - Tropical Storm

#116 Postby dexterlabio » Sat Oct 31, 2020 2:10 am

mrbagyo wrote:convection getting cold again.

https://i.imgur.com/R5RtTBc.gif


Must be for Goni. :lol:
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Re: WPAC: ATSANI - Tropical Storm

#117 Postby Ed_2001 » Sat Oct 31, 2020 2:19 am

Well for what it is worth 0z Euro op run now keeps Atsani as a TD and shows no further development. Could that still change and Astani still develops? Sure, but crazy how the turntables in comparsion to modeals runs before.
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Re: WPAC: ATSANI - Tropical Storm

#118 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 31, 2020 5:55 am

JT has Atsani as a TS in 12 hours.
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Re: WPAC: ATSANI - Tropical Storm

#119 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 31, 2020 7:19 am

Huge southwest dive on the 06z GFS. 21N to 15N landfall east of Manila.
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Re: WPAC: ATSANI - Tropical Storm

#120 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 31, 2020 9:47 am

Slower intensification peak of 80 knots.

WDPN32 PGTW 311500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (ATSANI)
WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (ATSANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 963 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK AND DISORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH FLARING
CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A NOTCH FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.0/30KTS.
THE ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL UNFAVORABLE WITH MODERATE TO HIGH
(20-25KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT OFFSET
ONLY SLIGHTLY BY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). THE
CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS A NOTABLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY.
THE MID-PORTION OF THE FORECAST HAS BEEN SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY TO
REFLECT A QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION IN THE COL ZONE BETWEEN TWO
RIDGES SPLIT BY A TRANSITORY MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. THE INTENSITIES
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST HAVE ALSO BEEN GREATLY
REDUCED.
B. TD 23W WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK IN THE PHILIPPINE
SEA UNDER THE SAME STR. AFTER TAU 36, A SHORTWAVE MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL ERODE AND SPLIT THE STR
AND PULL THE CYCLONE POLEWARD INTO THE COL ZONE BETWEEN THE
RIDGES. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY AS VWS
WEAKENS IN THE COL ZONE AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVES, LEADING TO
A SLOW INTENSIFICATION TO 55KTS BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 36. AFTERWARD, NAVGEM DIVERGES TO THE
RIGHT OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THIS
PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS PLACED SLIGHTLY LEFT
OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE UNLIKELY NAVGEM SOLUTION
DRIVING THE VORTEX INTO THE STR.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, THE SECONDARY STR BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ASSUME STEERING AND SLOWLY DRIVE TD 23W WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD THEN WESTWARD. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO IMPROVE EVEN MORE WITH DECREASED VWS (10-15KTS) AND THE ADDITION
OF AN EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THESE CONDITIONS, COUPLED WITH
CONTINUED WARM SST, WILL ALLOW FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO 80KTS
BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE TO OVER 400NM BY
TAU 120 WITH VARYING TRACK SPEEDS, LENDING POOR CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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