WPAC: INVEST 91W

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Hayabusa
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WPAC: INVEST 91W

#1 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Oct 29, 2020 4:49 am

91W.INVEST

Near the dateline
91W.INVEST.15kts.1006mb.5.5N.171E


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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#2 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:20 am

Location matches EURO's and GFS's initialization. This was probrably Etau that was forecast to develop.

Now trending weaker.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#3 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Oct 29, 2020 7:08 pm

I think it depends on where Atsani goes, if Atsani recurves it would absorb 91W but if Atsani goes west like towards the Philippines 91W could develop.
WWJP27 RJTD 291800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 291800.
WARNING VALID 301800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 04N 170E WEST SLOWLY.
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#4 Postby dexterlabio » Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:32 pm

Hayabusa wrote:I think it depends on where Atsani goes, if Atsani recurves it would absorb 91W but if Atsani goes west like towards the Philippines 91W could develop.
WWJP27 RJTD 291800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 291800.
WARNING VALID 301800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 04N 170E WEST SLOWLY.



This might be the next TC the GFS has been showing after Atsani.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#5 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:24 pm

With recent runs from GFS towards at Atsani, 91W's chance of development has gone up based on those runs.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#6 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Oct 30, 2020 5:31 am

The latest fix is near equatorial :double:
91W INVEST 201030 0600 1.8N 168.0E WPAC 15 1009
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#7 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 30, 2020 7:14 am

EURO tracks the vorticity to the Marianas with little to no development.

GFS still develops it after passing the Marianas in 168 hours and landfalls in Luzon as a 986 mb typhoon.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#8 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 30, 2020 7:58 pm

GFS has development in 162 hours and peak of 994 mb.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#9 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Oct 30, 2020 11:23 pm

This becomes a fast west runner after passing south of Marianas based on latest GFS
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#10 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 31, 2020 6:26 am

Weaker on the 06z run with a peak of 997 mb Luzon landfall compared to the 00z run which peaked it at 987 mb Visayas landfall.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#11 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 31, 2020 6:27 am

Vietnam all over again.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#12 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Oct 31, 2020 8:56 am

There seems to be ensemble support even typhoon ones, anyway these 170+ knots ensembles for Goni are pretty :double:
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#13 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 31, 2020 9:53 am

Interesting...

Could future Etau take advantage of this environment that was suppose to strengthen Atsani into a powerful typhoon but was sheared by the outflow of Goni...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#14 Postby euro6208 » Sun Nov 01, 2020 12:37 am

06z GFS peak 993 mb and makes a beeline for Northern Philippines.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#15 Postby euro6208 » Sun Nov 01, 2020 7:26 am

GFS persistent on this. Development in 144 hours and peaks at 993 mb in 168 hours. Close call for Taiwan.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#16 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Nov 01, 2020 9:05 am

looking good so far - anticyclone is right above it giving it a nice radial outflow
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Last edited by mrbagyo on Sun Nov 01, 2020 9:11 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#17 Postby euro6208 » Sun Nov 01, 2020 9:09 am

mrbagyo wrote:looking good so far - nice radial outflow


That is the most organized system we've seen all year this far east...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#18 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Nov 01, 2020 9:18 am

SCATSAT and ASCAT seem to show a SW to NE oriented surface trough with 91W at the top of the trough axis nearish 8ºN, 161ºE, kind of like your typical easterly wave. There aren't really and low latitude westerlies to help consolidate the invest, but if it can keep generating convection atop the trough axis where convergence is best, it has a shot. Might be a slow process though.

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#19 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Nov 01, 2020 9:29 pm

Really just kind of enjoying watching the convection evolution with this one. There's some good inflow coming in from the SE, but doesn't look like there is much going on as far as organization at the moment.

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#20 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Nov 01, 2020 11:42 pm

Not sure if this is still the same invest the GFS is developing after 72 hours, but GFS 18Z still makes a run for 91W in tropicaltdibits, also best track hasn't been updated since 12Z, but that also happened when Atsani was still 90W.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically


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