ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:00 pm

AL, 96, 2020103000, , BEST, 0, 123N, 622W, 20, 1008, DB


Thread that was the topic for this area at Talking Tropics forum.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=121507
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#2 Postby sma10 » Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:07 pm

Yeah i think this could be a quick spin up, as suggested by some recent modeling. Million dollar question is if it carries into C.A. or stalls out in Carib
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#3 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:08 pm

Here we go... Game on. One exits and another pops up. This season is just nuts!!! Take it in folks...this is historic and we may never see this again in our lifetimes. At least let's hope not.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#4 Postby aspen » Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:11 pm

Pre-Eta did not topple the record held by pre-Zeta, although this had a chance of becoming stronger and more impactful.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#5 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:11 pm

sma10 wrote:Yeah i think this could be a quick spin up, as suggested by some recent modeling. Million dollar question is if it carries into C.A. or stalls out in Carib


A stall is quite possible if the ridge builds around the system and not just north of it because if it builds also west of it this system can't go anywhere until a trough picks it up similar to what the 18zGFS is showing
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#6 Postby Ryxn » Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:14 pm

Will likely form on October 31 as a Tropcial Depression, though I want it to get named on November 1 so November can be more likely to break the storm record.
Last edited by Ryxn on Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#7 Postby sma10 » Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:15 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:
sma10 wrote:Yeah i think this could be a quick spin up, as suggested by some recent modeling. Million dollar question is if it carries into C.A. or stalls out in Carib


A stall is quite possible if the ridge builds around the system and not just north of it because if it builds also west of it this system can't go anywhere until a trough picks it up similar to what the 18zGFS is showing


The 12z EPS also had a lot more action around FL/Bahamas area
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#8 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:16 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#9 Postby GeneratorPower » Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:17 pm

aspen wrote:Pre-Eta did not topple the record held by pre-Zeta, although this had a chance of becoming stronger and more impactful.


Got burned out and tired of being played by the models, unplayed, played and then finally unplayed again.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#10 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:22 pm

96L looks rather vigorous in the early stages. I think it could become a TD possibly within the next 24 hours or sooner. It is already at 1009 mb.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#11 Postby cp79 » Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:28 pm

Questions to be answered:

1) Will the cold fronts sweeping through Florida the next two days keep it safe from 96L?
2) Will 96L go fully into the CA or stall out just before getting there, then wait for something to give it some guidance.
3) Is the Northern Gulf Coast in the clear or will there be another HP move over Florida to steer it into the Central Gulf? (This is assuming there is a lag in incoming troughs).
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#12 Postby chaser1 » Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:29 pm

northjaxpro wrote:96L looks rather vigorous in the early stages. I think it could become a TD possibly within the next 24 hours or sooner. It is already at 1009 mb.


Kinda crazy for an October storm but looking at it this evening, you may well be right.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#13 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:29 pm

wow take a look at radr out of the islands.. expect a possible TD in the next 24 hours..
https://www.rainviewer.com/map.html?loc ... &sm=0&sn=0" width="100%" frameborder="0" style="border:0;height:50vh;" allowfullscreen></iframe>
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#14 Postby LarryWx » Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:30 pm

cycloneye wrote:
96L INVEST 201030 0000 12.0N 78.0W ATL 15 1009


Thread that was the topic for this area at Talking Tropics forum.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=121507


Luis,
That suggests it is already at 78W. That doesn't seem right. Isn't it still further east near the Lesser Antilles? Please someone clarify. Thanks.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#15 Postby CyclonicFury » Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:32 pm

LarryWx wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
96L INVEST 201030 0000 12.0N 78.0W ATL 15 1009


Thread that was the topic for this area at Talking Tropics forum.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=121507


Luis,
That suggests it is already at 78W. That doesn't seem right. Isn't it still further east near the Lesser Antilles? Please someone clarify. Thanks.

It's fairly common for invests to have the wrong location when they are first designated.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#16 Postby edu2703 » Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:32 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#17 Postby tiger_deF » Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:33 pm

Something this season is just encouraging any puff of clouds with a scant amount of vorticity to start developing. Never seen anything like it. Dry air has been above average especially earlier in the season, and shear has also been around normal, so the amount of tropical systems that have been pumped out ever since June is incredible. Especially near land, outside of Delta, all the storms this season have intensified right into the moment of landfall. One potential theory could be atmospheric factors which overcome some of the initial land interaction/dry air absorption by approaching cyclones.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#18 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:33 pm

cp79 wrote:Questions to be answered:

1) Will the cold fronts sweeping through Florida the next two days keep it safe from 96L?
2) Will 96L go fully into the CA or stall out just before getting there, then wait for something to give it some guidance.
3) Is the Northern Gulf Coast in the clear or will there be another HP move over Florida to steer it into the Central Gulf? (This is assuming there is a lag in incoming troughs).

We'll have to wait a few days before we know, but what I do know is this will be our next named storm
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#19 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:39 pm

cp79 wrote:Questions to be answered:

1) Will the cold fronts sweeping through Florida the next two days keep it safe from 96L?
2) Will 96L go fully into the CA or stall out just before getting there, then wait for something to give it some guidance.
3) Is the Northern Gulf Coast in the clear or will there be another HP move over Florida to steer it into the Central Gulf? (This is assuming there is a lag in incoming troughs).


That's where the ensembles are split. Some bring it into Central America (and that destroys it), while others keep it offshore and then turn it hard north. Something we may not know for a little bit.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#20 Postby Kazmit » Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:42 pm

tiger_deF wrote:Something this season is just encouraging any puff of clouds with a scant amount of vorticity to start developing. Never seen anything like it. Dry air has been above average especially earlier in the season, and shear has also been around normal, so the amount of tropical systems that have been pumped out ever since June is incredible. Especially near land, outside of Delta, all the storms this season have intensified right into the moment of landfall. One potential theory could be atmospheric factors which overcome some of the initial land interaction/dry air absorption by approaching cyclones.

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