ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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johngaltfla
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4561 Postby johngaltfla » Thu Nov 12, 2020 4:39 pm

NDG wrote:
johngaltfla wrote:


FYI, it always floods on Lido, ever since I was a kid. No matter how big the pumps are they install, it still can not keep. Especially with a slow moving TS or TD.


When there's 3-5 feet of storm surge where is the water going to be pumped to if there is no levee to keep the storm surge out?

https://i.imgur.com/qd7h3X3.jpg


You have to understand the lack of logic of our local politicians.

They like to scream and jump, buy the pumps, put in pipes, pump the water to the mainland, which of course, drains back into Sarasota Bay and eventually floods their homes.

Brilliant!
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4562 Postby Syx6sic » Thu Nov 12, 2020 8:05 pm

underthwx wrote:
Syx6sic wrote:
underthwx wrote:I think the main culprit regarding the rainfall is a cold front in your area?...Here is a part of the earlier NWS Virginia Beach forecast discussion:..."Latest sfc analysis shows the cold front pushing off the coast
off NE NC. The heaviest (convective) rain associated with the
cold front is also exiting the region. A steady moderate to
locally heavy rain is expected to continue through the afternoon
for the SE 2/3rds of the CWA. Rain has begun to taper off in the
NW 1/3rd of the CWA this afternoon and will slowly taper off
from NW to SE through the afternoon/early evening as cooler, drier
air advects into the area. Temps are currently in the low 50s NW
and in the mid to upper 60s SE. Temps slowly fall off from NW to
SE through the afternoon as the aforementioned cooler, drier air
filters in."....maybe a bit of ETA as a remnant low will contribute to the precipitation in your area...but Im fairly certain the precipitation is a result of the frontal passage...


Thanks for that info guess its just a mixture of both with all the extra moisture in the area also who knows for sure all i know it my neighborhood had about 6 inches of water standing in the street by 1030am

Your welcome...I agree that it's a mixture of both...that's alot of rainfall for a cold front, so I'm pretty certain ETA contributed to the totals of precipitation.



* At 648 PM EST, Department of transportation reported numerous
closed roads across the warned area. Flooding is already
occurring. Between 4 and 6 inches of rain have fallen.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Virginia Beach, Exmore, Cape Charles, Virginia Wesleyan
University, Kempsville, Regent University, Norfolk, Chesapeake,
Nassawadox, Cheriton, Bay View, Norfolk International, Princess
Anne, Back Bay, Willis Wharf, Eastville, Kiptopeke, Kiptopeke
State Park, Townsend and Cheapside.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4563 Postby underthwx » Thu Nov 12, 2020 9:35 pm

Syx6sic wrote:
underthwx wrote:
Syx6sic wrote:
Thanks for that info guess its just a mixture of both with all the extra moisture in the area also who knows for sure all i know it my neighborhood had about 6 inches of water standing in the street by 1030am

Your welcome...I agree that it's a mixture of both...that's alot of rainfall for a cold front, so I'm pretty certain ETA contributed to the totals of precipitation.



* At 648 PM EST, Department of transportation reported numerous
closed roads across the warned area. Flooding is already
occurring. Between 4 and 6 inches of rain have fallen.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Virginia Beach, Exmore, Cape Charles, Virginia Wesleyan
University, Kempsville, Regent University, Norfolk, Chesapeake,
Nassawadox, Cheriton, Bay View, Norfolk International, Princess
Anne, Back Bay, Willis Wharf, Eastville, Kiptopeke, Kiptopeke
State Park, Townsend and Cheapside.

Hi...just saw your earlier post...sounds like a mess...how are things looking now?
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4564 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Nov 12, 2020 11:12 pm

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


We're not quite done with Eta yet, but here's what I have as the best track:

AL292020, ETA, 58,
20201031, 0000, , LO, 14.8N, 68.5W, 25, 1007,
20201031, 0600, , LO, 14.9N, 69.8W, 25, 1007,
20201031, 1200, , TD, 14.9N, 71.1W, 30, 1006,
20201031, 1800, , TS, 14.9N, 72.4W, 35, 1005,
20201101, 0000, , TS, 15.0N, 73.8W, 40, 1003,
20201101, 0600, , TS, 15.0N, 75.2W, 45, 999,
20201101, 1200, , TS, 14.9N, 76.7W, 50, 995,
20201101, 1800, , TS, 14.9N, 78.4W, 55, 992,
20201102, 0000, , HU, 14.9N, 79.4W, 65, 987,
20201102, 0600, , HU, 14.9N, 80.4W, 75, 980,
20201102, 1200, , HU, 14.8N, 81.1W, 95, 971,
20201102, 1800, , HU, 14.7N, 82.0W, 115, 948,
20201103, 0000, , HU, 14.3N, 82.5W, 130, 932,
20201103, 0600, , HU, 14.0N, 82.9W, 140, 919,
20201103, 1200, , HU, 13.6N, 83.1W, 130, 934,
20201103, 1800, , HU, 13.7N, 83.3W, 110, 947,
20201103, 2200, L, HU, 13.8N, 83.5W, 120, 941,
20201104, 0000, , HU, 13.8N, 83.7W, 100, 960,
20201104, 0600, , HU, 13.8N, 84.3W, 65, 979,
20201104, 1200, , TS, 13.8N, 84.9W, 45, 991,
20201104, 1800, , TS, 13.9N, 85.3W, 35, 997,
20201105, 0000, , TD, 14.1N, 86.0W, 30, 1003,
20201105, 0600, , TD, 14.7N, 86.7W, 30, 1004,
20201105, 1200, , TD, 15.1N, 87.3W, 25, 1005,
20201105, 1800, , DB, 15.5N, 87.7W, 25, 1005,
20201106, 0000, , DB, 16.2N, 87.8W, 25, 1005,
20201106, 0600, , DB, 16.7N, 87.6W, 30, 1004,
20201106, 1200, , DB, 17.0N, 87.4W, 30, 1004,
20201106, 1800, , LO, 17.2N, 87.1W, 30, 1004,
20201107, 0000, , TS, 17.5N, 86.5W, 35, 1001,
20201107, 0600, , TS, 18.2N, 85.5W, 40, 999,
20201107, 1200, , TS, 19.0N, 83.2W, 50, 996,
20201107, 1800, , TS, 19.8N, 81.3W, 55, 994,
20201108, 0000, , TS, 20.4N, 80.3W, 60, 991,
20201108, 0600, , TS, 21.1N, 79.5W, 60, 990,
20201108, 0900, L, TS, 21.6N, 79.2W, 60, 990,
20201108, 1200, , TS, 22.1N, 79.0W, 55, 992,
20201108, 1800, , TS, 23.5N, 79.2W, 55, 993,
20201109, 0000, , TS, 24.5N, 80.1W, 60, 991,
20201109, 0330, L, TS, 24.8N, 80.7W, 60, 991,
20201109, 0600, , TS, 25.0N, 81.4W, 60, 991,
20201109, 1200, , TS, 24.8N, 82.9W, 55, 992,
20201109, 1800, , TS, 24.2N, 84.1W, 45, 996,
20201110, 0000, , TS, 23.5N, 84.9W, 45, 997,
20201110, 0600, , TS, 23.0N, 85.4W, 45, 995,
20201110, 1200, , TS, 22.6N, 85.4W, 50, 992,
20201110, 1800, , TS, 22.9N, 85.1W, 55, 990,
20201111, 0000, , TS, 23.5N, 84.7W, 60, 988,
20201111, 0600, , HU, 24.5N, 84.2W, 65, 985,
20201111, 0900, R, HU, 25.1N, 84.0W, 70, 983,
20201111, 1200, , HU, 25.7N, 83.9W, 65, 986,
20201111, 1800, , TS, 26.9N, 83.7W, 55, 990,
20201112, 0000, , TS, 27.9N, 83.5W, 50, 992,
20201112, 0600, , TS, 28.6N, 83.3W, 45, 994,
20201112, 0900, L, TS, 29.1N, 83.0W, 45, 995,
20201112, 1200, , TS, 29.8N, 82.4W, 40, 999,
20201112, 1800, , TS, 31.2N, 81.3W, 40, 1000,
20201113, 0000, , TS, 32.0N, 79.9W, 40, 1001,

Some key thoughts:

* Genesis is moved up 6 hours, largely because they were holding due to uncertainty with ASCAT passes missing.
* The intensities between genesis and the first Recon flight were increased as the aircraft already found a strong tropical storm.
* As for the peak intensity, that is a difficult one to assess. After going back through the data, I settled on 140 kt, although it was a tossup between 135 and 140. Initially I went with 135 but going back into the fixes gives me enough confidence to go 140. Some key points:
** The highest flight-level winds were 138 kt, which translates to 122 kt.
** The highest SFMR reading was 135 kt, which was likely legitimate even though there are some issues with the SFMR at the high end.
** The lowest Recon pressure was 923 mb at 0330Z. That would translate to about 135 kt using pressure-wind relationships.
** Satellite signatures, even adjusted for the eye temperature, would support at least 140-145 kt.
** Finally, it appears that Eta peaked at 06Z once the aircraft left, and the sampling was limited as well. Using that assumption, satellite estimates, the poor sampling and the SFMR, the peak intensity was derived. My estimate for the lowest pressure was 919 mb with the same theories.
* After peak intensity, the trajectory is adjusted. Instead, I believe Eta rapidly weakened - as fast as it strengthened - up to 1800Z, dropping to 110 kt. However, given satellite improvements, I believe it re-strengthened in the last few hours leading to landfall. The landfall intensity of 120 kt is unchanged.
* The track is indeed broken with a wave/low phase. It was inconclusive whether an LLC existed on November 5-6 and I believe the circulation dissipated at 18Z November 5. A low reformed around 18Z November 6 and re-genesis followed six hours later. By then, it was already a tropical storm per ASCAT.
* The intensity in the NW Caribbean is adjusted upwards pre-Recon, and also post-Recon to a peak of 60 kt. That is also my estimate for the intensity at Cuban landfall, based on surrounding Recon data.
* The intensity at Keys landfall is also increased to 60 kt. That is based on an SFMR reading of 58 kt, radar echoes translating to about 59 kt at the surface and flight-level winds of 68 kt.
* Intensities are smoothed out while Eta made the loop in the southern Gulf. However, its short-lived and abrupt re-intensification is also modified slightly. A peak of 70 kt is added at a non-synoptic time (09Z) as that was when radar and satellite looked best. By 12Z, it had already started to decay.
* Final landfall at Cedar Key has its intensity decreased slightly to 45 kt, based on slight weakening after Recon left.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4565 Postby caneman » Fri Nov 13, 2020 2:41 am

HurricaneBelle wrote:This turned out to be more of a nuisance storm for the Tampa Bay area with flooding (fresh-water and from surge) and scattered power outages the main problems. It looks like the Bay side flooding might have been worse than the Gulf side flooding with the persistent E/SE winds as Eta moved up the coast to our south and was weaker by the time it got north of our latitude. Some on the Bay side have remarked it was the worst flooding they've had since Elena in 1985.

But it was nowhere as near as bad overall as Irma was as the winds on average were a good 15-20 MPH weaker than that event.


That isnt completely true. Redington Shores and Treasure Island had bad flooding. SW facing beaches
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4566 Postby HurricaneBelle » Fri Nov 13, 2020 8:36 am

caneman wrote:
HurricaneBelle wrote:This turned out to be more of a nuisance storm for the Tampa Bay area with flooding (fresh-water and from surge) and scattered power outages the main problems. It looks like the Bay side flooding might have been worse than the Gulf side flooding with the persistent E/SE winds as Eta moved up the coast to our south and was weaker by the time it got north of our latitude. Some on the Bay side have remarked it was the worst flooding they've had since Elena in 1985.

But it was nowhere as near as bad overall as Irma was as the winds on average were a good 15-20 MPH weaker than that event.


That isnt completely true. Redington Shores and Treasure Island had bad flooding. SW facing beaches


Did I say the Gulf-facing beaches didn't have serious flooding? No, I didn't.

It was just that from a historical perspective it was worse for the Bay-facing beaches.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#4567 Postby caneman » Fri Nov 13, 2020 9:40 am

HurricaneBelle,
That is factually incorrect. 33 people had to be rescued in Madeira and Treasure Island by boat.. Im not wanting to tic for tac with you but Madeira and Treasure Island on the Gulf were hit the hardest
ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. - It was a stressful, busy night for many in Pinellas County, specifically for those living in the flood-prone areas. From Madeira Beach to St. Pete, many watched as water spilled into streets of neighborhoods and into their homes and businesses as Tropical Storm Eta pummeled Pinellas County.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#4568 Postby Kazmit » Fri Nov 13, 2020 9:53 am

Eta at her peak. Looks like a super typhoon.

Image
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4569 Postby Syx6sic » Fri Nov 13, 2020 9:55 am

underthwx wrote:
Syx6sic wrote:
underthwx wrote:Your welcome...I agree that it's a mixture of both...that's alot of rainfall for a cold front, so I'm pretty certain ETA contributed to the totals of precipitation.



* At 648 PM EST, Department of transportation reported numerous
closed roads across the warned area. Flooding is already
occurring. Between 4 and 6 inches of rain have fallen.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Virginia Beach, Exmore, Cape Charles, Virginia Wesleyan
University, Kempsville, Regent University, Norfolk, Chesapeake,
Nassawadox, Cheriton, Bay View, Norfolk International, Princess
Anne, Back Bay, Willis Wharf, Eastville, Kiptopeke, Kiptopeke
State Park, Townsend and Cheapside.

Hi...just saw your earlier post...sounds like a mess...how are things looking now?


Dark and gloomy but so far no more rain but I haven’t went back out side but most the flooded did seem to have went down when I did go out before bed
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4570 Postby underthwx » Fri Nov 13, 2020 10:01 am

Syx6sic wrote:
underthwx wrote:
Syx6sic wrote:

* At 648 PM EST, Department of transportation reported numerous
closed roads across the warned area. Flooding is already
occurring. Between 4 and 6 inches of rain have fallen.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Virginia Beach, Exmore, Cape Charles, Virginia Wesleyan
University, Kempsville, Regent University, Norfolk, Chesapeake,
Nassawadox, Cheriton, Bay View, Norfolk International, Princess
Anne, Back Bay, Willis Wharf, Eastville, Kiptopeke, Kiptopeke
State Park, Townsend and Cheapside.

Hi...just saw your earlier post...sounds like a mess...how are things looking now?


Dark and gloomy but so far no more rain but I haven’t went back out side but most the flooded did seem to have went down when I did go out before bed

I'm happy to hear that...I have been watching the weather there...
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Re: ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#4571 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Nov 13, 2020 8:22 pm

Final track of Eta is one hell of an accomplishment for a November TC

Image
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Re: ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#4572 Postby underthwx » Fri Nov 13, 2020 8:26 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Final track of Eta is one hell of an accomplishment for a November TC

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/64/Eta_2020_track.png

Thanks for sharing that...that's an amazing track...as well as a destructive one
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Re: ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#4573 Postby EquusStorm » Fri Nov 13, 2020 8:43 pm

A much stronger, slightly faster moving, and even more rapid direction-changing Gordon, perhaps. Don't get tracks that weird all that often.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#4574 Postby aspen » Fri Nov 13, 2020 8:50 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Final track of Eta is one hell of an accomplishment for a November TC

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/64/Eta_2020_track.png

I was right. Eta did make Paulette’s track look normal by comparison.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#4575 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Nov 13, 2020 8:51 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Final track of Eta is one hell of an accomplishment for a November TC

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/64/Eta_2020_track.png

That right there will be a track that will be remembered for a long, long time...
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Re: ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#4576 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Nov 14, 2020 9:05 pm

Eta is a EX tropical cyclone is still active.


400K views on Eta!
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Re: ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#4577 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Nov 14, 2020 9:06 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Final track of Eta is one hell of an accomplishment for a November TC

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/64/Eta_2020_track.png

OMG 4 landfalls! :eek:
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