ATL: ETA - Models

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ATL: ETA - Models

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:02 pm

Only model runs.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#2 Postby Ryxn » Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:18 pm

Here we go folks..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#3 Postby NDG » Thu Oct 29, 2020 9:21 pm

Is not surprising that the 18z GFS didn't show 96L crossing across into the EPAC, right before getting to C.A. there is nothing in the mid level steerings to keep pushing it straight west, if anything NW closer to the Gulf of Honduras.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#4 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Oct 29, 2020 9:38 pm

NDG wrote:Is not surprising that the 18z GFS didn't show 96L crossing across into the EPAC, right before getting to C.A. there is nothing in the mid level steerings to keep pushing it straight west, if anything NW closer to the Gulf of Honduras.

https://i.imgur.com/yta7AuJ.jpg


It seems the stronger Eta gets, the more likely it gets held offshore? The upper-level steering seems most resistant to that idea while the lower-level steering drives it inland and across?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#5 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 29, 2020 10:04 pm

First run of SHIP is very bullish.

* ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL962020 10/30/20 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 22 24 30 40 54 63 74 80 84 87 89 90 95 97
V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 22 24 30 40 54 63 74 80 84 87 89 58 43 50
V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 24 29 34 42 49 57 61 62 63 45 36 44
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 8 5 4 3 4 1 6 6 11 11 20 15 16 16 18 15 18
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 4 1 -1 -1 -4 -3 -1 -3 -1 -3 -6 -3 0 2 4
SHEAR DIR 293 262 281 318 281 18 168 188 164 170 171 174 129 99 80 78 108
SST (C) 29.2 29.2 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.4 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.8 29.9 29.7 29.7
POT. INT. (KT) 153 155 150 150 154 156 160 158 156 158 165 166 162 165 166 160 161
ADJ. POT. INT. 148 152 149 148 152 155 160 158 153 152 157 160 157 161 161 152 155
200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 -52.3 -52.6 -52.2 -52.8 -52.4 -53.0 -52.4 -52.7 -52.3 -52.7 -52.4
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 10 9 7 8 6 7 6 5 4 5 5 5 4 4
700-500 MB RH 70 67 65 68 70 73 72 72 70 73 77 75 78 79 80 81 82
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 4 6 6 7 9 13 14 17 20 21 21 22 21 22 22
850 MB ENV VOR 40 28 18 28 41 53 61 85 101 120 120 125 141 134 116 114 114
200 MB DIV 55 37 23 28 49 41 35 53 75 89 162 108 94 71 59 44 63
700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 -1 -3 6 5 0 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 3
LAND (KM) 178 211 244 295 323 266 222 312 231 120 179 267 76 11 -21 0 82
LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.6 12.9 13.2 13.5 13.8 14.2 14.9 15.8 16.7 16.9 16.3 15.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 62.2 62.9 63.9 64.9 65.9 68.1 70.6 73.2 75.6 77.7 79.3 81.1 82.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 10 10 11 11 13 13 12 9 8 9 9 8 6 2 4
HEAT CONTENT 44 48 43 44 57 54 64 61 76 50 71 66 45 47 40 35 39

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 425 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.5

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. 1. 7. 16. 22. 27. 31. 35. 40. 44. 47. 49. 49.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 11. 9. 8. 6. 5. 5. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 0.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 6. 6. 10. 14. 15. 14. 13. 11. 10. 9.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 4. 10. 20. 34. 43. 54. 60. 64. 67. 69. 70. 75. 77.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.3 62.2

** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962020 INVEST 10/30/20 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.90 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.31 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.34 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.09 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 68.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.91 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.32 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.1% 5.4% 2.3% 1.1% 0.3% 5.9% 22.8% 66.6%
Bayesian: 0.8% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 3.4% 39.9%
Consensus: 0.6% 2.1% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 2.3% 8.7% 35.5%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962020 INVEST 10/30/20 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962020 INVEST 10/30/2020 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 20 22 24 30 40 54 63 74 80 84 87 89 58 43 50
18HR AGO 20 19 19 21 23 29 39 53 62 73 79 83 86 88 57 42 49
12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 20 26 36 50 59 70 76 80 83 85 54 39 46
6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#6 Postby NDG » Thu Oct 29, 2020 10:07 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
NDG wrote:Is not surprising that the 18z GFS didn't show 96L crossing across into the EPAC, right before getting to C.A. there is nothing in the mid level steerings to keep pushing it straight west, if anything NW closer to the Gulf of Honduras.

https://i.imgur.com/yta7AuJ.jpg


It seems the stronger Eta gets, the more likely it gets held offshore? The upper-level steering seems most resistant to that idea while the lower-level steering drives it inland and across?


Correct, but even if it stays weak the overall steering in the lower levels are forecasted to be either weak or very light from the west, is sort of telling me that the rising motion will be in the Caribbean.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#7 Postby NDG » Thu Oct 29, 2020 10:16 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#8 Postby aspen » Thu Oct 29, 2020 10:16 pm

cycloneye wrote:First run of SHIP is very bullish.

* ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL962020 10/30/20 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 22 24 30 40 54 63 74 80 84 87 89 90 95 97
V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 22 24 30 40 54 63 74 80 84 87 89 58 43 50
V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 24 29 34 42 49 57 61 62 63 45 36 44
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 8 5 4 3 4 1 6 6 11 11 20 15 16 16 18 15 18
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 4 1 -1 -1 -4 -3 -1 -3 -1 -3 -6 -3 0 2 4
SHEAR DIR 293 262 281 318 281 18 168 188 164 170 171 174 129 99 80 78 108
SST (C) 29.2 29.2 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.4 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.8 29.9 29.7 29.7
POT. INT. (KT) 153 155 150 150 154 156 160 158 156 158 165 166 162 165 166 160 161
ADJ. POT. INT. 148 152 149 148 152 155 160 158 153 152 157 160 157 161 161 152 155
200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 -52.3 -52.6 -52.2 -52.8 -52.4 -53.0 -52.4 -52.7 -52.3 -52.7 -52.4
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 10 9 7 8 6 7 6 5 4 5 5 5 4 4
700-500 MB RH 70 67 65 68 70 73 72 72 70 73 77 75 78 79 80 81 82
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 4 6 6 7 9 13 14 17 20 21 21 22 21 22 22
850 MB ENV VOR 40 28 18 28 41 53 61 85 101 120 120 125 141 134 116 114 114
200 MB DIV 55 37 23 28 49 41 35 53 75 89 162 108 94 71 59 44 63
700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 -1 -3 6 5 0 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 3
LAND (KM) 178 211 244 295 323 266 222 312 231 120 179 267 76 11 -21 0 82
LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.6 12.9 13.2 13.5 13.8 14.2 14.9 15.8 16.7 16.9 16.3 15.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 62.2 62.9 63.9 64.9 65.9 68.1 70.6 73.2 75.6 77.7 79.3 81.1 82.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 10 10 11 11 13 13 12 9 8 9 9 8 6 2 4
HEAT CONTENT 44 48 43 44 57 54 64 61 76 50 71 66 45 47 40 35 39

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 425 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.5

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. 1. 7. 16. 22. 27. 31. 35. 40. 44. 47. 49. 49.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 11. 9. 8. 6. 5. 5. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 0.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 6. 6. 10. 14. 15. 14. 13. 11. 10. 9.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 4. 10. 20. 34. 43. 54. 60. 64. 67. 69. 70. 75. 77.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.3 62.2

** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962020 INVEST 10/30/20 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.90 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.31 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.34 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.09 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 68.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.91 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.32 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.1% 5.4% 2.3% 1.1% 0.3% 5.9% 22.8% 66.6%
Bayesian: 0.8% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 3.4% 39.9%
Consensus: 0.6% 2.1% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 2.3% 8.7% 35.5%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962020 INVEST 10/30/20 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962020 INVEST 10/30/2020 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 20 22 24 30 40 54 63 74 80 84 87 89 58 43 50
18HR AGO 20 19 19 21 23 29 39 53 62 73 79 83 86 88 57 42 49
12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 20 26 36 50 59 70 76 80 83 85 54 39 46
6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT

I remember SHIP’s early run(s) for Epsilon had a 100 kt major, and those verified very well. Maybe it’s on to something with Eta, maybe it’ll be far off. We don’t know at this point, but its success with Epsilon combined with its prediction for Eta is yet another concerning aspect of this storm.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#9 Postby SFLcane » Thu Oct 29, 2020 10:17 pm

Bams doing a potential loop then heading north.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#10 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Oct 29, 2020 10:18 pm

SHIPS is most certainly bullish. Now that it has been tagged, I'm looking forward to seeing the HWRF and HMON output. I wonder if they'll run at 00z tonight?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#11 Postby SFLcane » Thu Oct 29, 2020 10:20 pm

Intensity guidance or ships brings it to major. Use with caution until a tc has develop

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#12 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Oct 29, 2020 10:22 pm

18z ECENS is painting a target all over Nicaragua. Lighting them up like a Christmas tree...

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#13 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Oct 29, 2020 10:35 pm

:uarrow: Definitely a good trend compared to 12z EPS if you live in the U.S. Hopefully Nicaragua and Honduras take this seriously! :eek:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#14 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Thu Oct 29, 2020 10:48 pm

Thus far the setup reminds me of Otto in 2016.

00z GFS coming in. Just a tad further south than the 18z.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#15 Postby Loveweather12 » Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:06 pm

TheStormExpert wrote::uarrow: Definitely a good trend compared to 12z EPS if you live in the U.S. Hopefully Nicaragua and Honduras take this seriously! :eek:


As you said in another thread “ One Model run is not a trend” so I will take your advice and wait a couple of days before jumping conclusion. This year had a lot of changes.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#16 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:10 pm

00z GFS buries it into Nicaragua on Wednesday. 18z must’ve been a fluke.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#17 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:11 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:00z GFS buries it into Nicaragua on Wednesday. 18z must’ve been a fluke.


Agreed, looked like there were multiple vorticies on the 18z that dragged the LLC north, which was probably nonsense.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#18 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:14 pm

ICON buries it in CA also but resurrects it in the Gulf of Honduras at 180 hours as a weak low.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#19 Postby Loveweather12 » Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:16 pm

No run is a fluke. We are still waiting for this to fully develop & see how weather patterns in time play out. I would caution those sounding the all clear to stop & present all options as these models runs will change.
This is no ordinary year.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#20 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:17 pm

GFS looks like it is sacrificing it as it crosses over Honduras in the EPAC, just to spin up another gyre in the Western Caribbean.
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