ATL: ETA - Models

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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1641 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Nov 09, 2020 9:36 am

chris_fit wrote:You guys tired yet?

Models all over the place this morning... Anywhere from TX to Tampa. Anything from Swirl of Clouds to Cat 2.

https://i.imgur.com/HUradE1.png

https://i.imgur.com/UdojIDk.png

https://i.imgur.com/DjicSpj.png

Yeah that pretty much narrows it down :lol:
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1642 Postby chaser1 » Mon Nov 09, 2020 10:15 am

Just not sure what model to buy into, but seems like NHC's present forecast solution is as good as any. I highly doubt that we'll see Eta make any significant resurrection and will probably make an erratic slow northward motion after a couple days. No way do I see this landfalling near (or north of) Tampa as anything more then a weak T.S. though. HWRF appears to have soiled itself after attempting to bring a 980's mb Eta up toward Tampa during one of yesterday's model runs, and now seems to have come around to a more reasonable decomposition. Famous last words lol.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1643 Postby Emmett_Brown » Mon Nov 09, 2020 10:22 am

6Z GFS shows decreasing shear and establishes a modest amount of upper level anticyclonic outflow over Eta tomorrow, which allows Eta to intensify. GFS is very inconsistent about this however, one run it deepens it, next run, Eta spins down and dries out.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1644 Postby chaser1 » Mon Nov 09, 2020 11:10 am

Emmett_Brown wrote:6Z GFS shows decreasing shear and establishes a modest amount of upper level anticyclonic outflow over Eta tomorrow, which allows Eta to intensify. GFS is very inconsistent about this however, one run it deepens it, next run, Eta spins down and dries out.


You're right; gfs has been quite inconsistent here. Meanwhile, NHC has now officially dropped the notion of Eta becoming a hurricane again (per latest official forecast)
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1645 Postby Wampadawg » Mon Nov 09, 2020 11:59 am

chris_fit wrote:You guys tired yet?

Models all over the place this morning... Anywhere from TX to Tampa. Anything from Swirl of Clouds to Cat 2.

https://i.imgur.com/HUradE1.png

https://i.imgur.com/UdojIDk.png

https://i.imgur.com/DjicSpj.png

Texas lol
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1646 Postby chris_fit » Mon Nov 09, 2020 12:11 pm

Wampadawg wrote:
chris_fit wrote:You guys tired yet?

Models all over the place this morning... Anywhere from TX to Tampa. Anything from Swirl of Clouds to Cat 2.

https://i.imgur.com/HUradE1.png

https://i.imgur.com/UdojIDk.png

https://i.imgur.com/DjicSpj.png

Texas lol



Now add Mexico to the list.

Image
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1647 Postby Wampadawg » Mon Nov 09, 2020 12:12 pm

chris_fit wrote:
Wampadawg wrote:
chris_fit wrote:You guys tired yet?

Models all over the place this morning... Anywhere from TX to Tampa. Anything from Swirl of Clouds to Cat 2.

https://i.imgur.com/HUradE1.png

https://i.imgur.com/UdojIDk.png

ETA wants to hang around for Turkey dinner

https://i.imgur.com/DjicSpj.png

Texas lol



Now add Mexico to the list.

https://i.imgur.com/1WGT3Zz.png
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1648 Postby N2FSU » Mon Nov 09, 2020 1:18 pm

12z Euro +96hrImage


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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1649 Postby N2FSU » Mon Nov 09, 2020 1:25 pm

+120hr- Louisiana Image


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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1650 Postby chaser1 » Mon Nov 09, 2020 3:56 pm

Emmett_Brown wrote:6Z GFS shows decreasing shear and establishes a modest amount of upper level anticyclonic outflow over Eta tomorrow, which allows Eta to intensify. GFS is very inconsistent about this however, one run it deepens it, next run, Eta spins down and dries out.


And naturally, we're NOW seeing some cold tops popping around the storms core. This storm just needs to go and off itself lol.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1651 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Mon Nov 09, 2020 4:20 pm

N2FSU wrote:+120hr- Louisiana https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201109/1c52c40383829d99f2138812f38ed845.jpg


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

every other 2020 storm finds a way to get there eventually it feels like.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1652 Postby Cat5James » Mon Nov 09, 2020 6:05 pm

18Z HMON brings Eta back to a CAT 3 by Thursday
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1653 Postby aspen » Mon Nov 09, 2020 6:12 pm

Cat5James wrote:18Z HMON brings Eta back to a CAT 3 by Thursday

Looks like we’re not done with the sub-970 runs yet...I’m doubtful Eta gets that strong again, at least for now.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1654 Postby FixySLN » Mon Nov 09, 2020 6:17 pm

Can we not. We're seriously still picking up from last week...We still have peeps without power.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1655 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Nov 10, 2020 12:21 am

HMON is full on trying to give Tampa Bay a scare!!! Comes with a 115mph major and then dies it out just before it hits.

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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1656 Postby StPeteMike » Tue Nov 10, 2020 12:25 am

I’ll see how it survives the next 12 hours...
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1657 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Nov 10, 2020 12:31 am

Yeah I gotta go with the HWRF solution at this point. That HMON Cat 2/3 seems over the top... At least I hope it's over the top, you never know in 2020...
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1658 Postby al78 » Tue Nov 10, 2020 4:39 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:HMON is full on trying to give Tampa Bay a scare!!! Comes with a 115mph major and then dies it out just before it hits.


Isn't that theoretically the worst case scenario for Tampa as far as a major hurricane track is concerned? The front right quadrant driving a storm surge into Tampa Bay and the bay funneling the surge into the city. Like what happened to Tacloban during Haiyan. Tampa and its bay is a disaster waiting to happen.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1659 Postby al78 » Tue Nov 10, 2020 4:42 am

Weather Dude wrote:Yeah I gotta go with the HWRF solution at this point. That HMON Cat 2/3 seems over the top... At least I hope it's over the top, you never know in 2020...


The NHC kept forecasting a steady state storm as it went through the keys before intensifying into a minimal cat 1 hurricane, and the storm has actually weakened, so it looks like the models have been overestimating the storm so far since it crossed Cuba.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1660 Postby jconsor » Tue Nov 10, 2020 9:00 am

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