ATL: ETA - Models

[TheStormExpert]

Seems like most of the models have shifted to having Eta move further SW (closer to the Yucatán Channel) and slowing down at least somewhat. The GFS and HMON put it in the optimal place to become a Cat 2/3, while the HWRF, CMC, and ICON don’t show anything stronger than they’ve previously had over the last multiple runs.

Even if this were to strengthen into a significant hurricane again in the Gulf I don’t think South Florida at least will have to worry about any troughs coming through to pull it back towards us as the NAO remains positive along with a -PNA allowing the SE Ridge to persist.

[robbielyn]

Seems like most of the models have shifted to having Eta move further SW (closer to the Yucatán Channel) and slowing down at least somewhat. The GFS and HMON put it in the optimal place to become a Cat 2/3, while the HWRF, CMC, and ICON don’t show anything stronger than they’ve previously had over the last multiple runs.

Yeah we in tampa bay not expecting a hurricane no one will be prepared. but usually hwrf is correct this year, even more than GFS so maybe it will cave to hwrf in the 0z. let’s hope hwrf is correct.

[wxman57]

00Z consensus agrees in keeping Eta south of 25 until it reaches 85W. Landfall next Friday night northern Panhandle, likely as a TD. Models are definitely trending farther away from south FL, but TS winds will extend way north of the center.

[SFLcane]

00Z consensus agrees in keeping Eta south of 25 until it reaches 85W. Landfall next Friday night northern Panhandle, likely as a TD. Models are definitely trending farther away from south FL, but TS winds will extend way north of the center.

http://wxman57.com/images/00zconsensus.JPG

Yep never fails. Numerous times warnings issued only to get breezy rainy conditions. Good sleeping wx

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Lol Storm you just never learn,
to funny.

[Blown Away]

00Z consensus agrees in keeping Eta south of 25 until it reaches 85W. Landfall next Friday night northern Panhandle, likely as a TD. Models are definitely trending farther away from south FL, but TS winds will extend way north of the center.

http://wxman57.com/images/00zconsensus.JPG

The TVCN has been flopping quite a bit within the 72 hour window compared to normal. 06z this morning had Eta near 25N before reaching 85W and never went E of 81W.

[Cat5James]

I’m just sitting back watching the storm continue to move eastward wondering when we will stop harping on each model run when they’ve been flip flopping the entire time

[Loveweather12]

I’m just sitting back watching the storm continue to move eastward wondering when we will stop harping on each model run when they’ve been flip flopping the entire time

What are your thoughts on where the storm
Might go?

[Cat5James]

I’m just sitting back watching the storm continue to move eastward wondering when we will stop harping on each model run when they’ve been flip flopping the entire time

What are your thoughts on where the storm
Might go?

From what I see the storm is riding the Eastern side of the cone... I just know that if theres been this much back and forth within 48 hours of "landfall", its not unreasonable to believe that there can still be changes

[wxman57]

00Z consensus agrees in keeping Eta south of 25 until it reaches 85W. Landfall next Friday night northern Panhandle, likely as a TD. Models are definitely trending farther away from south FL, but TS winds will extend way north of the center.

http://wxman57.com/images/00zconsensus.JPG

Yep never fails. Numerous times warnings issued only to get breezy rainy conditions. Good sleeping wx

That still puts the southern third of the Peninsula in TS winds, as TS winds may extend over 200 miles north of the center. Let's take the discussion of the models to the discussion thread.

[wzrgirl1]

No matter how far south, I can tell you that the weather is horrible right now in west Broward. Absolutely terrible.

[Cat5James]

No matter how far south, I can tell you that the weather is horrible right now in west Broward. Absolutely terrible.

Another squall coming thru.

[SFLcane]

No matter how far south, I can tell you that the weather is horrible right now in west Broward. Absolutely terrible.

Rainy night..be there done that last 10 days.

[wzrgirl1]

This is different. More squally and definitely more windy. Is squally a word?

[gatorcane]

Wow NAM much stronger out over the loop current in the Gulf (965MB), let’s see if the GFS again shows a strong hurricane.

[TheStormExpert]

Wow NAM much stronger out over the loop current in the Gulf (965MB), let’s see if the GFS again shows a strong hurricane.

00z GFS just south of Key West with a 987mb storm. Probably best not to trust the NAM.

[gatorcane]

Wow NAM much stronger out over the loop current in the Gulf (965MB), let’s see if the GFS again shows a strong hurricane.

00z GFS just south of Key West with a 987mb storm. Probably best not to trust the NAM.

The GFS actually is at 964MB over the loop current close to the NAM.

Note not talking about strength near Key West.

[gatorcane]

GFs what are you doing?!?

[lhpfish]

Lots of uncertainty based on the current cone

[gatorcane]

This run seems to just sum up this season for peninsula Florida which seems to deflect just about everything. Either that or the Tampa force field kicked in