ATL: ETA - Models

[Hurricaneman]

ICON buries it in CA also but resurrects it in the Gulf of Honduras at 180 hours as a weak low.

the 0zGFS seems to do the same thing, looks like it splits the energy after landfall and the main energy goes into the EPac and a piece develops north of Honduras so thats something to watch for

[tomatkins]

00z GFS buries it into Nicaragua on Wednesday. 18z must’ve been a fluke.

Its about strength. The shallow steering is for a loop (see the map a few posts up). The ICON stays weaker and thus remains offshore (well eventually it moves NW and inland), while the GFS strengthens and moves due west. The 18Z GFS was weaker as well.

Eventually it looks like another front comes in - its just a matter of whether there is a storm to pull north or not.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

No run is a fluke. We are still waiting for this to fully develop & see how weather patterns in time play out. I would caution those sounding the all clear to stop & present all options as these models runs will change.
This is no ordinary year.

Plenty of runs can be flukes, just depends on what they output. We've seen plenty of times the GFS spit out random nonsense that influences the track in an absurd matter.

[sma10]

ICON buries it in CA also but resurrects it in the Gulf of Honduras at 180 hours as a weak low.

the 0zGFS seems to do the same thing, looks like it splits the energy after landfall and the main energy goes into the EPac and a piece develops north of Honduras so thats something to watch for

I believe last night's euro did the same

[LarryWx]

0Z UKMET takes quite awhile to form it (126 hours) and then moves it west into NE Nicaragua when the run ends:

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 30.10.2020


NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 14.1N 82.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 04.11.2020 13.9N 82.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.11.2020 14.1N 83.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

[LarryWx]

0Z GEFS: well after slamming CA with a good portion of members moving very slowly, three members slam S FL with a H and one other one's center just misses S FL as it is biocked and is moving south as part of a loop but gives S FL the stronger side. So 4 hits in total out of 31 members. Two of these look like majors with direct slams 11/6 and 11/8. The other two hit 11/9:

[LarryWx]

The 0Z Euro, like the 0Z GFS, 0Z CMC, and the 18Z EPS is very scary looking for much of CA and additional significant rains fall even after this 7 day period per the run:

[LarryWx]

Folks,
Well, the 0Z EPS shows that we will likely be in for a wild run these next 2 weeks. First, the threat to CA remains very real mainly through day 12 from Invest 96L. But then mainly on days 9-15, the threat to the CONUS is highest and it may be mainly from a second TC. The NE US strong ridging once again causes some unusual movement for early November. First, one member hits SE LA as a H early on 11/9 moving NW to NNW! That one was down to 935 mb in the NW Car and only weakened only to 952 when just offshore. FL becomes the focus for 3 other members. After moving N, one member gets blocked and then turns NW into St. Augustine on 11/9! Another member moves N out of the Caribbean but then gets blocked and turns NW and W into far S FL as a H on 11/10. Then it goes into the far SE Gulf and very slowly recurves back into Ft. Myers as a H on 11/13. A 4th member moves N out of the Car before becoming blocked and turning NNW and going into Vero as a H on 11/11.

[Deshaunrob17]

Another genesis the gfs para picked up first.- best tropical.cyclone model for 2020

[GCANE]

NAVGEM has a more northly track into the Carib with a slight dog leg.
Pretty nasty outcome.

[SFLcane]

06z GEFS ensembles are quite active!

[boca]

Ensembles say Florida and models say CA will see what happens.

[gatorcane]

NAVGEM has a more northly track into the Carib with a slight dog leg.
Pretty nasty outcome.

https://i.imgur.com/idPCAd3.png

https://i.imgur.com/8wVwYH8.png

06Z NAVGEM hits Honduras from the north, you don’t see that often

[gatorcane]

The unwavering Euro into CA then the EPAC:

[SFLcane]

Models have not updated run since 00z last night.

[AutoPenalti]

Slight north shifts just before CA has me a little worried.

[SFLcane]

[tomatkins]

NAVGEM has a more northly track into the Carib with a slight dog leg.
Pretty nasty outcome.

https://i.imgur.com/idPCAd3.png

https://i.imgur.com/8wVwYH8.png

All of the models seem to have this general shape - westward, then a south or southwest job, then eventually pulling back north or northwest.

But the timing is everything.

[TheStormExpert]

Wxman57 sounded the all clear for the U.S. We can move on from the this will hit Florida chatter!

[gatorcane]

Para into Nicaragua/Honduras and only 120 hours from now