ATL: ETA - Models

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chris_fit
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1661 Postby chris_fit » Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:58 am

Decent shift East/Closer to W FL on the 12z GFS - looks like a different solution than previous runs


Image



Here's what the 06Z showed (and many before that were similar)


Image
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1662 Postby underthwx » Tue Nov 10, 2020 11:03 am

chris_fit wrote:Big shift East/Closer to W FL on the 12z GFS


https://i.imgur.com/RIUPI9H.gif

How has the GFS performed with ETA overall?...
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1663 Postby BobHarlem » Tue Nov 10, 2020 11:06 am

12GFS getting a little stronger then heading up to Tampa, but goes "poof"right before it, similar to 6z HMON
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1664 Postby ronjon » Tue Nov 10, 2020 12:11 pm

12z NAM now joining GFS with stronger system heading NE into the nature coast north of Tampa. 12z CMC again shows a stronger system and closer to FL west coast. Hope this isn't a trend...
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1665 Postby SconnieCane » Tue Nov 10, 2020 12:16 pm

ronjon wrote:12z NAM now joining GFS with stronger system heading NE into the nature coast north of Tampa. 12z CMC again shows a stronger system and closer to FL west coast. Hope this isn't a trend...


I don't even look at the NAM for TCs...but it's not like it's on an island so :think:
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1666 Postby chris_fit » Tue Nov 10, 2020 12:46 pm

HMON and HWRF going with a more E solution as well
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1667 Postby ronjon » Tue Nov 10, 2020 1:52 pm

SconnieCane wrote:
ronjon wrote:12z NAM now joining GFS with stronger system heading NE into the nature coast north of Tampa. 12z CMC again shows a stronger system and closer to FL west coast. Hope this isn't a trend...


I don't even look at the NAM for TCs...but it's not like it's on an island so :think:


Obviously its the NAM but it strengthened and moved more NE from its 06z run. Joining the pack so to speak of some of the other globals.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1668 Postby Gums » Tue Nov 10, 2020 1:53 pm

Salute!

Gotta love it.

East then west then back to east.

Breathing easier now, since none of these suckers seem to hit close to the projections.

Latest NHC coords for Sunday morning are within 10 miles of me, so no problem. The thing will scoot off to the east is my guess when looking at the approaching front.

Gums sends...
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1669 Postby ronjon » Tue Nov 10, 2020 2:02 pm

12z Euro joining the pack into the Big Bend of NE GOM. I see significant track shifts toward a Florida landfall in the next NHC advisory with possible tropical storm watches going up for portions of the Florida west coast.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=watl&pkg=mslp_uv850&runtime=2020111012&fh=144
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1670 Postby SconnieCane » Tue Nov 10, 2020 2:06 pm

Most of the models/runs that get it stronger/bring it towards FL seem pretty intent on it collapsing/stalling just offshore. You'd think a hurricane on a NE'ward track in November wouldn't just come to a screeching halt. :?: :?: :?:
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1671 Postby chris_fit » Tue Nov 10, 2020 2:15 pm

NHC Official is just about the W outlier, by quite a bit too...

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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1672 Postby ronjon » Tue Nov 10, 2020 2:55 pm

TVCN which is pretty close to NHC track projections, now takes ETA through north-central Florida with a Crystal River landfall.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1673 Postby LarryWx » Tue Nov 10, 2020 3:00 pm

12Z UKMET: into FL Big Bend but fortunately as just a weakening TD:

TROPICAL STORM ETA ANALYSED POSITION : 22.6N 85.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL292020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.11.2020 0 22.6N 85.3W 994 35
0000UTC 11.11.2020 12 23.4N 85.1W 993 41
1200UTC 11.11.2020 24 24.7N 85.1W 995 41
0000UTC 12.11.2020 36 26.1N 84.8W 996 43
1200UTC 12.11.2020 48 27.0N 85.3W 1002 31
0000UTC 13.11.2020 60 27.7N 84.6W 1005 27
1200UTC 13.11.2020 72 28.3N 84.2W 1008 26
0000UTC 14.11.2020 84 28.1N 84.2W 1011 27
1200UTC 14.11.2020 96 28.6N 85.0W 1013 19
0000UTC 15.11.2020 108 30.7N 83.9W 1013 20
1200UTC 15.11.2020 120 32.4N 81.8W 1015 20
0000UTC 16.11.2020 132 CEASED TRACKING
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1674 Postby StPeteMike » Tue Nov 10, 2020 3:01 pm

What’s the intensity models saying? I know it has been mentioned earlier that a stronger storm means more N/NE.

Also, hasn’t UKMET sucked this season?! Haha
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1675 Postby sponger » Tue Nov 10, 2020 3:15 pm

The GFS looks initialized too weak. The risk of a landfalling tropical storm in Florida is going up by the hour.

Edit 993 is spot on without recon.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1676 Postby sponger » Tue Nov 10, 2020 3:35 pm

chris_fit wrote:HMON and HWRF going with a more E solution as well


HMON brings it into Tampa and hits the Florida North East Coast force field from the wrong side and bounces it back to the gulf. Crazy stuff!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hmon&region=29L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2020111012&fh=180
Last edited by sponger on Tue Nov 10, 2020 3:37 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1677 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Nov 10, 2020 3:36 pm

Latest HWRF model is showing 90 knots near Florida.


Image

HWRF-P is only up to 60 knots before dying away

Image
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1678 Postby jdray » Tue Nov 10, 2020 3:41 pm

sponger wrote:
chris_fit wrote:HMON and HWRF going with a more E solution as well


HMON brings it into Tampa and hits the Florida North East Coast force field from the wrong side and bounces it back to the gulf. Crazy stuff!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hmon&region=29L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2020111012&fh=180



I4 Pinball on that run.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1679 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Nov 10, 2020 3:43 pm

HMON with Eta hates Florida

Image
Image
Image

(Yes, it makes landfall as a TS over Florida)

Image
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1680 Postby Emmett_Brown » Tue Nov 10, 2020 4:56 pm

18Z GFS has landfall around Cedar Key as a weak TS, but keeps moving NE across the state to exit around Jax. This is a continuation of the more easterly trend of the GFS today.
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