ATL: ETA - Models

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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1621 Postby jconsor » Sun Nov 08, 2020 11:30 am

Last edited by jconsor on Sun Nov 08, 2020 12:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1622 Postby aspen » Sun Nov 08, 2020 12:52 pm

HWRF once again has a strong hurricane, this time peaking as a Cat3 around 955 mb/105 kt.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1623 Postby kevin » Sun Nov 08, 2020 12:59 pm

12z HWRF :eek: . At least it weakens a bit in the 96 - 105 hour range to 965 mbar, but considering how good HWRF has been this season in terms of intensity this is not the run I was hoping to see. It was one of the few models that anticipated Eta's rapid intensification into a cat 4. Has there ever been a hurricane that went from major -> tropical depression -> major?

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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1624 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Nov 08, 2020 1:15 pm

Assuming Eta turns back NNE or NE it could be problematic then, then it is now as it may be more significant in intensity. Anyone from the eastern FL Panhandle to Ft. Myers need to watch as the state may be dealing with Eta for quite awhile.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1625 Postby Blown Away » Sun Nov 08, 2020 2:20 pm

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stormin ... ks_18z.png

18z huge shift N to FL Peninsula. Lol, Eta for 2 days keeps moving to the R of virtually every model run...
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1626 Postby Cat5James » Sun Nov 08, 2020 2:41 pm

Blown Away wrote:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/29L_tracks_18z.png

18z huge shift N to FL Peninsula. Lol, Eta for 2 days keeps moving to the R of virtually every model run...

These models have been horrendous... Euro 00Z showed Eta hugging the SE coast of FL within 24 hours, now its off the West coast... that's over 100 miles difference within 24 hours
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1627 Postby chaser1 » Sun Nov 08, 2020 3:10 pm

Blown Away wrote:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/29L_tracks_18z.png

18z huge shift N to FL Peninsula. Lol, Eta for 2 days keeps moving to the R of virtually every model run...


Question then becomes, will Eta re-establish it's inner core? Big props to HWRF for the most part this year but I'm seriously questioning it's latest intensity forecasts.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1628 Postby Blown Away » Sun Nov 08, 2020 3:20 pm

chaser1 wrote:
Blown Away wrote:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/29L_tracks_18z.png

18z huge shift N to FL Peninsula. Lol, Eta for 2 days keeps moving to the R of virtually every model run...


Question then becomes, will Eta re-establish it's inner core? Big props to HWRF for the most part this year but I'm seriously questioning it's latest intensity forecasts.


Yeah, there is very little convection on the bottom half of the LLC, I think if you are on the bottom half of circulation it’s a breezy cloudy day. Models predicted well all the energy to the N.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1629 Postby aspen » Sun Nov 08, 2020 3:29 pm

chaser1 wrote:
Blown Away wrote:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/29L_tracks_18z.png

18z huge shift N to FL Peninsula. Lol, Eta for 2 days keeps moving to the R of virtually every model run...


Question then becomes, will Eta re-establish it's inner core? Big props to HWRF for the most part this year but I'm seriously questioning it's latest intensity forecasts.

The HWRF shows this anemic structure for the next 12-18 hours, and it isn’t until Tuesday that it has Eta really get going again. It’s not like it’s showing ERI within 24 hours.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1630 Postby aspen » Sun Nov 08, 2020 6:14 pm

18z HWRF has a sheared/tilted vortex at 48 hours, which is odd. Shear is supposed to be under 10 kt by then, but from the looks of Eta on the HWRF’s simulated IR and moisture filters, it’s expecting 20-30 kt.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1631 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Nov 08, 2020 6:16 pm

Models seem to be backing off on anything too significant in the Gulf.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1632 Postby PandaCitrus » Sun Nov 08, 2020 6:38 pm

18Z GFS just kinds of lingers in the gulf before dissipating. No FL landfall.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1633 Postby aspen » Sun Nov 08, 2020 6:47 pm

The “Happy Hour” runs are anything but happy today. HWRF has a minor hurricane at most, GFS still has a max of a strong TS.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1634 Postby LarryWx » Sun Nov 08, 2020 7:55 pm

Happy Hour King says a more moderate version (thankfully) of Kate the 2nd still possible:

Image

It is then within a very moist environment of dewpoints greater than 76 F:

Image
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1635 Postby underthwx » Sun Nov 08, 2020 8:57 pm

aspen wrote:HWRF once again has a strong hurricane, this time peaking as a Cat3 around 955 mb/105 kt.

Good Lord....
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1636 Postby MetroMike » Sun Nov 08, 2020 9:05 pm

underthwx wrote:
aspen wrote:HWRF once again has a strong hurricane, this time peaking as a Cat3 around 955 mb/105 kt.

Good Lord....


I’m not seeing that on the 18z please explain.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1637 Postby aspen » Sun Nov 08, 2020 9:06 pm

MetroMike wrote:
underthwx wrote:
aspen wrote:HWRF once again has a strong hurricane, this time peaking as a Cat3 around 955 mb/105 kt.

Good Lord....


I’m not seeing that on the 18z please explain.

That was the 12z run. The 18z has a Cat 1 at the most.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1638 Postby Jr0d » Sun Nov 08, 2020 9:36 pm

Whoops....wrong forum.

The NAM and HRRR just updated.
Last edited by Jr0d on Sun Nov 08, 2020 9:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1639 Postby Blown Away » Sun Nov 08, 2020 9:39 pm

That big red blob moving through Palm Beach was accurately shown in the modeling last night. Amazing computers can predict that we’ll in advance.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#1640 Postby chris_fit » Mon Nov 09, 2020 9:06 am

You guys tired yet?

Models all over the place this morning... Anywhere from TX to Tampa. Anything from Swirl of Clouds to Cat 2.

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Image

Image
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