ATL: ETA - Advisories

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Re: ATL: ETA - Advisories

#61 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 12, 2020 4:32 am

Tropical Storm Eta Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
420 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

...ETA MAKES LANDFALL NEAR CEDAR KEY FLORIDA...

A National Ocean Service weather station indicates that Eta made
landfall near Cedar Key Florida at 400 AM EST. Maximum sustained
winds were estimated at 50 mph (85 km/h), with a minimum central
pressure of 996 mb (29.42 inches).


SUMMARY OF 420 AM EST...0920 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.2N 83.0W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM NNE OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: ATL: ETA - Advisories

#62 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 12, 2020 10:22 am

Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 49
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

The center of Eta made landfall near Cedar Key, Florida with
an estimated intensity of 45 kt shortly after the release of the
previous NHC advisory package. Since that time, the center of Eta
has moved across the northern portion of the Florida peninsula.
Some weakening has occurred, but ship and buoy observations along
and just off the northeast Florida coast support an initial
intensity of 40 kt. Little change in strength is expected when Eta
moves over the western Atlantic tonight and early Friday due to
moderate to strong southwesterly shear. The ECMWF and UKMET models
indicate that Eta could strengthen after it merges with a frontal
zone and becomes extratropical well offshore of the east coast
of the United States late Friday and Friday night. The NHC
forecast calls for some slight intensification of the extratropical
cyclone before it is absorbed by a large low pressure area over the
western Atlantic on Saturday.

Eta is moving northeastward at about 13 kt. Eta should continue to
accelerate northeastward over the next day or so within the
mid-latitude westerlies, ahead of a trough that will move
across the Great Lakes region on Friday. The new official forecast
is again a little faster than the previous NHC track, but the
latest guidance did not require much cross-track change.

Deep-layer moisture from that has spread northward along a
frontal boundary across the Carolinas is producing heavy rainfall
and flash flooding that is not directly associated with Eta.
See products from the NOAA Weather Prediction Center and your
local National Weather Service office for additional information.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected in the warning area
along portions of the northeast Florida Coast through early this
afternoon.

2. Localized bands of heavy rainfall will continue to impact
portions of the Florida Peninsula today, resulting in isolated flash
and urban flooding, especially across previously inundated areas.
Minor river flooding is expected across portions of West Florida
lasting into the weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 30.2N 81.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 32.0N 79.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 34.1N 76.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 37.3N 70.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 14/1200Z 40.5N 62.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: ETA - Advisories

#63 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 12, 2020 3:50 pm

Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 50
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the center
of Eta moved off the Georgia coast around 18z, a little farther
north than previously anticipated. The satellite presentation of
the storm has become quite ragged with the primary convective band
located well east of the center. The circulation has also become
more elongated, with the strongest winds occurring east of the
center over the Atlantic waters. Based on the continued
degradation of Eta's organization, the initial wind speed has been
lowered to 35 kt. Little change in strength is anticipated
through early Friday due to moderate to strong westerly shear. The
UKMET and ECMWF models continue to show some re-intensification of
the system as an extratropical low by late Friday, and that is what
is indicated in the official foreast. A plausible alternative
scenario that is favored by the GFS is for the circulation to
become elongated and dissipate along an approaching frontal boundary
on Friday.

Eta is moving northeastward at about 16 kt. The cyclone should
continue to accelerate northeastward over the next day or so ahead
of a mid-latitude trough that is forecast to move across the Great
Lakes Region and approach the northeastern United States on Friday.
Only slight modifications to the previous official forecast were
required, and the new NHC track forecast is near the middle of the
tightly clustered dynamical models.

Deep-layer moisture that has spread northward along a frontal
boundary across portions of eastern North Carolina and the
Mid-Atlantic coast is producing heavy rainfall and flash flooding
that is not directly associated with Eta. See products from the
NOAA Weather Prediction Center and your local National Weather
Service office for additional information.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 31.6N 80.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 33.2N 77.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 35.6N 73.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 14/0600Z 38.7N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: ETA - Advisories

#64 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 12, 2020 9:46 pm

Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 51
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the
circulation of Eta is becoming stretched as it interacts with a
frontal boundary just to its west. Deep convection is mostly
confined to the northern side of the system and in patches
associated with its trailing trough. Since buoy 41004 off the
South Carolina coast recently reported sustained winds of 37 kt,
the initial intensity is nudged up to 40 kt for this advisory.

The models show the circulation of Eta continuing to lose definition
overnight, and it is possible that the tropical storm will open up
into a trough soon. Whatever is left of Eta will merge with the
nearby front on Friday, causing it to transition into an
extratropical cyclone. The non-tropical low is then forecast to
dissipate on Saturday over the north Atlantic. Eta, or its
remnants, will likely strengthen slightly before it dissipates on
Saturday due to the predicted faster forward speed and baroclinic
influences.

Eta is moving northeastward at 15 kt. An even faster motion to the
northeast is expected until the cyclone dissipates as it moves in
the flow ahead of a deep-layer trough. This should take Eta, or
its remnants, gradually away from the southeast U.S. coast.

Deep-layer moisture partly associated with Eta has spread
northward along a frontal boundary across eastern North Carolina
and just offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast. See products
from the NOAA Weather Prediction Center and your local National
Weather Service office for additional information.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 32.3N 79.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 33.6N 76.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 36.1N 70.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 14/1200Z 39.3N 62.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: ATL: ETA - Advisories

#65 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 13, 2020 6:17 am

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Eta Advisory Number 52
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 AM EST Fri Nov 13 2020

...ETA BECOMES AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.3N 76.8W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Eta
was located near latitude 33.3 North, longitude 76.8 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 21
mph (33 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with an
increase in forward speed through Saturday. On the forecast track,
Eta is expected to gradually pull away from the southeast U.S.
coast today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Eta could intensify a little as an non-tropical cyclone during the
next day or so before it becomes absorbed by a larger non-tropical
cyclone on Saturday or Saturday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Eta will affect portions of the
southeastern United States coast today. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Beven


Post-Tropical Cyclone Eta Discussion Number 52
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 AM EST Fri Nov 13 2020

While the cyclone is still generating a cluster of strong
convection to the northeast of the center, satellite imagery,
surface observations and scatterometer data indicate that Eta has
merged with a baroclinic zone and become an extratropical cyclone
off the southeastern coast of the United States. The scatterometer
data showed vectors of 40-50 kt along a front or convergence zone
northeast of the center, but these vectors were in the strong
convective region and their reliability is uncertain. This, the
initial intensity is held at a possibly conservative 40 kt. Eta is
forecast to strengthen as a baroclinic low until the system is
absorbed by another low pressure area in about 48 h.

The initial motion is 060/18. The post-tropical cyclone cyclone
should continue this general motion with an increase in forward
speed until it is absorbed.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center
on Eta. Additional information on this system can be found in
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under
AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 33.3N 76.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 13/1800Z 35.0N 73.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 14/0600Z 37.9N 66.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 14/1800Z 41.1N 57.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 15/0600Z...ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven
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